ecosummit may 2013 long
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The Magic of Energy Efficiency:The Sequel
Steven Fawkes
EcoSummit
Berlin
5th June2013
© Steven Fawkes 2013
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If you are not worried about energy………. you should be
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$279 billion p.a.$83 per barrel exportedOnly 20% goes to USA
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Ageing infrastructure
Ageing workforce
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2013: 10 million barrels/day export
2035: domestic demand = production
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€500 billion p.a. energy imports.
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Additional 3 billion middle class by 2030
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1.3 billion
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1.6 million children
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HOW EFFICIENT ARE WE?
475
5555
Source: University of Cambridge, global figures , in EJSource: University of CambridgeUnits: Exajoules
Only 11% efficient
www.onlyelevenpercent.com
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IEA’s EFFICIENT WORLD SCENARIO
- Boost cumulative output by $18 trillion by 2035
= GDP US, Canada, Mexico, Chile combined
- Additional investment of $11.8 trillion
- Reduces fuel expenditures by $17.5 trillion
- Reduces supply side investment by $5.9 trillion
- Oil demand peaks at 91 million barrels per day before 2020 and
declines to 87 million per day in 2035
- Energy related CO2 emissions peak before 2020 and decline to 30.5
Gt in 2035
Source: IEA WEO 2012
MASSIVE
POTENTIAL
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LCOE Summary (€/MWh)
€30 - 75
€60 - 75
€110 - 140
€125 - 250
€125 - 175
€250 - 350
€20 - 45
Fossil / nuclear
Onshore wind
Large PV
Small PV
Offshore wind
Tidal stream
Energy efficiencySource: Fraunhofer Institute and ACEEE
EFFICIENCY
IS
CHEAPEST
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Energy efficiency: 21 jobs per $1m spend Energy generation: 10 jobs per $1m spendEconomy as a whole: 17 jobs per $1m
Source: ACEEE 2011
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‘Why isn’t energy efficiency happening?’
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‘Why isn’t energy efficiency happening?’
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS HAPPENING
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Oil
Oil RenewablesCoal Gas Nuclear Other Efficiency
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Opportunities for new products
and new business models
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$279 billion investment opportunity10 year energy savings > $1 trillion3.3 million new jobs600 million tonnes GHG (10% US total)Source: Deutsche Bank and Rockefeller Foundation
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38% energy saving3.1 year payback on incremental capital
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20% reductionin HVAC energy
23% reduction in peak load
Compared to standard E-glassSource: View Glass
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Nuclear reactor equivalents by 2020Source: McKinsey
7
3
19
17
9
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20% target
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BIG DATA
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$0.7 trillion NPV$0.3 trillion investment27% savings potential
Source: Rocky Mountain Institute
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10% weight reduction = 7% gain fuel efficiency
Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle. Weight may be desirable in a steam roller but nowhere else.
Henry Ford, 1924
Aluminium has potential to reduce weight by 40%Sources: MIT & AluEurope
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10-15%Source: Stena
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21% saving compared to 767 (measured NOT marketing hype)
Source: Aviation Week
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Gas flared every year = total energy consumption of France and Germany combined
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barriers
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Contact
Steve [email protected]
+44 77 0223 1995www.onlyelevenpercent.com
@DrSteveFawkes
© Steven Fawkes 2013