economy 2030 (let’s just round up from 2022…) where we’ve been; where we’re going. kara...

Economy 2030(Let’s just round up from 2022…)

Where we’ve been; where we’re going.

Kara MarkleyRegional Economist

U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsJuly 29, 2014

Where we’re going today...

A little about BLS data Current economic situation in the

U.S. and Mid-Atlantic region Employment Projections and

Occupational Outlook Economic assumptions

Industry projections Occupational projections

7/29/2014

2

About the BLS

3

The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics

The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data

BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant.

Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

Voluntary Cooperation

Nearly all of our surveys are voluntary Confidentiality is as important to the

Bureau as it is to respondents We do our best to reduce respondent

burden Without the cooperation of the people who

participate in its surveys—people like you—the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not provide high-quality information about the economy to you

We greatly appreciate the cooperation of our survey respondents. Thank You!! 4

Employment National, state, and metropolitan area

employment data comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES), collected from business establishments.

National employment levels released with the Employment Situation on the first Friday of the month.

Available by industry.

5

Unemployment rates

National: The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Regional, state & local: The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces data for Census regions and divisions, states, counties, metropolitan areas, and many cities, by place of residence.

6

Unemployment rates by state:May 2014

Data are seasonally adjusted

Unemployment rates in the United States and Mid-Atlantic states: May 2011-2014


Unemployment rates for major age-sex groups, 2004-2014


Unemployment rates by race and ethnicity, 2004-2014


Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational

attainment, 2004-2014


Employment Total nonfarm, 1-year and 5-year net change,

Mid-Atlantic states

Data are not seasonally adjusted

12

Employment: Percent change in total nonfarm,

United States and Mid-Atlantic states


13


14

Employment: Net change by industry supersector,

Delaware


District of Columbia


15


16


Maryland


17


Pennsylvania


18


Virginia


19


West Virginia

Employment Projections

10-year projections made every 2 years

2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries

BLS projections prepared at the national level only

20

Projections Uses

Career counselors and students making career choice decisions

Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations

Education and training officials making decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings

Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

21

Employment Projections Products

Occupational Outlook Handbook

Occupational Outlook Quarterly

Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation

Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more

22

Employment Outlook: 2012-22

Assumptions: Labor Force

and Economic Conditions

23

In the future, we see…

The economy will grow at a slower rate over the period 2012-2022.

The number of people over the age of 65 will increase by 38.7 percent, while the total population increases by 10.1 percent.

Housing availability will average 1.6 million per year over the decade.

Investment in computers and software will increase by 109 percent. 24

Population and Labor Force

Population aged 16 and over Labor Force

217.6

144.9

243.3

155.0

265.3

163.5

25

Millions of persons

2002

2002

2012

2012

Projected 2022

Projected 2022

Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Population Growth Rate

1962-72 1972-82 1982-92 1992-2002 2002-12 Projected 2012-22

1.8% 1.8%

1.1%1.2%

1.1%

0.9%

2.1%

2.4%

1.5%

1.2%

0.7%0.5%

Civilian non-institu-tional population aged 16 and over

Labor Force

26

Annual rates of change

Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Participation Rates

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 Pro-jected 2022

0

20

40

60

80

100

82.0

70.2 67.6

58.863.7

61.6

37.9

57.756.0

27

Percent

Total

Men

Women

Labor Force Share by Age Group

28

15%

22%

25%

23%

14%2002

14%

22%

21%

23%

21% 2012

11%

23%

21%

19%

26%

Projected2022

16 to 2425 to 3435 to 4445 to 5455 and older

Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected

2012-22

16-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

-2,823

3,321

2,076

-3,454

3,607

5,749

29

In thousands of people

Labor Force Percent Change by Age Group:

Projected 2012-2216-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

-13.3%

9.9%

6.3%

-9.9%

14.6%

74.4%

30

Total labor force growth= 5.5%

Unemployment Rate

31

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Assumption2022

0%

4%

8%

12%

5.4%

Employment

2002 2012 Projected 2022

131.0

134.4

149.8

32

Millions of jobs

Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary

Employment

33

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

Actual and projected (1.1% annual growth rate, 2012-22)With no recession (0.8% annual growth rate, 2007-22)

In millions

NOTE: The interim years between 2012 and the 2022 projection point expressed by a straight dashed line are not projected values.


Industry Employment

34

Employment by Industry Sector: 2012

State and local government Professional and business

services Health care and social assis-tance

Retail trade Leisure and hospitality

Manufacturing Financial activities

Other services Wholesale trade

Construction Transportation and warehousing

Educational services Federal government

Information Mining

Utilities

19,103.2

17,930.2

16,971.8

14,875.3

13,745.8

11,918.9

7,786.3

6,174.5

5,672.8

5,640.9

4,414.7

3,346.9

2,814.0

2,677.6

800.5

554.2 35

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Professional and business services

Construction Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade State and local government

Financial activities Educational services

Other services Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing Mining

Utilities Information

Federal government Manufacturing

4,994.1

3,482.8

1,622.1

1,289.2

1,090.9

929.0

751.0

675.3

648.9

470.4

327.3

121.2

-56.4

-65.2

-407.5

-549.536

Thousands of wage and salary jobs

Service providing

Goods producing

Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected

2012-22

Health care and social assistance Construction

Educational services Professional and business services

Mining Other services

Financial activities Leisure and hospitality

Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing

Retail trade State and local government

Information Manufacturing

Utilities Federal government

2.6%

2.6%

1.9%

1.8%

1.4%1.0%

0.9%0.9%

0.8%

0.7%0.7%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.5%

-1.1%

-1.6%37

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment

Service providingGoods producing

Total nonagricultura

l wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%


Occupational Employment

38

Employment by Major Occupational Group:

2012Office and administrative support

Sales and related

Food preparation and serving related

Transportation and material moving

Education, training, and library

Production

Management

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Business and financial operations

Construction and extraction

Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance

22,470.1

15,105.0

11,780.1

9,245.7

9,115.9

8,941.9

8,861.5

8,049.7

7,167.6

6,092.2

5,522.3 39

Thousands of jobs

(Continued on next

slide)

Employment by Major Occupational Group:

2012Installation, maintenance, and repair

Personal care and service

Healthcare support

Computer and mathematical

Protective service

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Architecture and engineering

Community and social service

Life, physical, and social science

Legal

Farming, fishing, and forestry

5,514.8

5,375.6

4,110.2

3,814.7

3,325.3

2,570.9

2,474.5

2,374.7

1,249.1

1,247.0

947.2 40

(Continued)

Thousands of jobs

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

41

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

33.6%

9.8%

Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22

Audiologists

Retail salespersons

4.3

434.7

Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands

Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

Number of Instagram followers Alicia Keys:

1,000,000 Henry: 10

Numeric increase Alicia Keys: 50,000 Henry: 5

Percentage increase Alicia Keys: 5% Henry: 50%

Let’s look at this concept using Instagram:

(Continued on next

slide)

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Healthcare support

Healthcare practitioners and technical



Computer and mathematical



Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance


Legal


28.1%

21.5%

21.4%

20.9%

18.0%

17.2%

12.5%

12.5%

11.1%

10.7%

10.1%43

Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Percent Change in Employment

by Major Occupational Group

Installation, maintenance, and repair



Protective service


Sales and related

Management


Office and administrative support

Production


9.6%

9.4%

8.6%

7.9%

7.3%

7.3%

7.2%

7.0%

6.8%

0.8%

-3.4%44

Projected 2012-22

Average, all occupations = 10.8%

(Continued)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupHealthcare practitioners and technical

Office and administrative support


Healthcare support



Sales and related




Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance

1,732.9

1,534.0

1,301.9

1,155.8

1,122.9

1,101.8

1,095.5

1,015.8

898.1

790.6

691.0

45

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

(Continued on next

slide)

Employment Change by Major Occupational

GroupComputer and mathematical

Management

Installation, maintenance, and repair


Protective service



Legal


Production


685.8

636.6

531.2

408.8

263.0

180.6

179.6

132.9

125.7

75.6

-32.246

Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22(Continued)

Fastest Growing Occupations

47

Percent change, projected 2012-22

Median annual wages, May 2012

$83,580

$19,910

$20,820

$39,170

$45,430

$65,860

$28,220

$53,240

$56,800

$52,160

Industrial-organizational psychologists

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Insulation workers, mechanical

Interpreters and translators

Diagnostic medical sonographersHelpers--brickmasons, blockmasons,

stonemasons, and tile and marble set-ters

Occupational therapy assistants

Genetic counselors

Physical therapist assistants

53.4%

48.8%

48.5%

46.7%

46.1%

46.0%

43.0%

42.6%

41.2%

41.0%


$19,910

$65,470

$21,110

$20,820

$18,260

$24,420

$32,410

$30,580

$22,320

$29,990


Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

Personal care aides

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Home health aides

Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food

Nursing assistantsSecretaries and administrative assis-tants, except legal, medical, and ex-

ecutiveCustomer service representatives

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Construction laborers

580.8

526.8

434.7

424.2

421.9

312.2

307.8

298.7

280.0

259.8

48

Fastest Declining Occupations

49

Percent change, projected 2012-22


$35,250

$44,920

$24,310

$53,090

$32,880

$53,090

$33,020

$24,050

$56,490

$19,830

Fallers

Locomotive firers

Shoe machine operators and tenders

Postal service clerks

Log graders and scalersPostal service mail sorters, pro-

cessors, and processing machine operators

Semiconductor processors

Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders

Postal service mail carriers

Motion picture projectionists

-43.3%

-42.0%

-35.3%

-31.8%

-31.6%

-29.8%

-27.1%

-27.1%

-26.8%

-26.5%

Occupations with the Largest

Employment Declines

50



$69,300

$56,490

$28,010

$21,270

$53,090

$18,670

$35,270

$53,090

$32,400

$28,630

Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers

Postal service mail carriers

Data entry keyers

Sewing machine operators

Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators

Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse

Word processors and typists

Postal service clerks

Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks

Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and ten-

ders, metal and plastic

-179.9

-79.2

-54.2

-41.7

-38.6

-29.2

-26.2

-21.3

-19.5

-19.2

Education and Training Classification

51

Consists of three categories of information for each occupation:

Typical education needed for entry

Work experience in a related occupation

Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equiva-lent

Less than high school

16.0%

18.4%

12.1%

17.6%

15.6%

11.3%

7.9%

10.9%

52

Percent change, projected 2012-22Average, all occupations = 10.8%

Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education

Category

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary non-degree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school

638.4

448.5

3,143.6

1,046.0

1,337.1

225.0

4,630.8

4,158.4

53


W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

N N $113,530

N N $79,860

<5 N $81,140

N I/R >=$187,200

N N $116,670

N N $64,290

N N $145,240

N I/R $172,020

N I/R $67,650

N N $73,660


Doctoral or Professional Degree Occupations with the Largest Job

Growth

Lawyers

Physical therapists

Health specialties teachers, postsecondary

Physicians and surgeons, all other

Pharmacists

Postsecondary teachers, all other

Dentists, general

Family and general practitioners

Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists

Business teachers, postsecondary

74.8

73.5

68.6

65.3

41.4

32.2

20.6

18.1

16.4

15.2

54

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

N N $49,830

N N $89,960

N I/R $40,080

N N $90,930

N N $75,400

N N $53,610

N N $69,870

<5 N $64,850

5+ N $86,490

N N $33,880


Master’s Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth

Healthcare social workers

Nurse practitioners

Mental health counselors

Physician assistants

Occupational therapists

Educational, guidance, school, and vocational counselors

Speech-language pathologists

Nursing instructors and teachers, postsecondary

Education administrators, post-secondary

Rehabilitation counselors

39.2

37.1

36.7

33.3

32.8

31.2

26

24

23.5

23.4

55

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

<5 N $95,440

N I/R $53,400

N N $63,550

N N $90,060

<5 N $78,600

N N $60,300

N N $79,680

N N $99,000

N M $82,790

N I/R $53,430


Bachelor’s Degree Occupations with the Largest

Job Growth

General and operations managers

Elementary school teachers, except special education

Accountants and auditors

Software developers, applications

Management analysts

Market research analysts and market-ing specialists

Computer systems analysts

Software developers, systems software

Construction managers

Middle school teachers, except special and career/technical education

244.1

167.9

166.7

139.9

133.8

131.5

127.7

82.8

78.2

76

56

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

N N $65,470

N N $24,420

N S $38,200

N N $41,540

N N $29,370

N N $22,700

N N $27,130

N N $34,500

N N $70,210

N L $43,640


Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the

Largest Job Growth

Registered nurses

Nursing assistants

Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses

Medical assistants

Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists

Preschool teachers, except special education

Dental assistants

Dental hygienists

Heating, air conditioning, and re-frigeration mechanics and installers

526.8

312.2

192.6

182.9

162.9

77.6

76.4

74.4

64.2

55.9

57

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

N S $32,410

N S $30,580

N A $39,940

N M $35,170

N M $31,350

N S $19,510

N S $27,470

<5 N $49,330

N S $25,990

N M $54,230


High School Diploma Occupations with the Largest Job

Growth

Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive

Customer service representatives

Carpenters

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks

Medical secretaries

Childcare workers

Office clerks, general

First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers

Receptionists and information clerks

Sales representatives, wholesale and manufactur-ing, except technical and scientific products

307.8

298.7

218.2

204.6

189.2

184.1

184.1

171.5

135.9

132

58

W TMedian annual

wages, May 2012

N S $19,910

N S $21,110

N S $20,820

N S $18,260

N S $22,320

N S $29,990

N S $23,890

N S $19,570

<5 M $22,030

N S $23,570


Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job

Growth

Personal care aides

Retail salespersons

Home health aides

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Construction laborers

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand

Maids and housekeeping cleaners

Cooks, restaurant

Landscaping and groundskeeping workers

580.8

434.7

424.2

421.9

280

259.8

241.9

183.4

150.1

139.2

59

Occupational Outlook Handbook

60

www.bls.gov/ooh

Education pays…

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Some College, no degree

High school diploma

Less than high school diploma

$1,623

$1,714

$1,329

$1,108

$777

$727

$651

$472

61

Median weekly earnings, 2013

Series12.2

2.3

3.4

4.0

5.4

7.0

7.5

11.0

Unemployment rate, 2013

Average, all occupations = $827Average, all occupations = 6.1NOTE: Data for persons

aged 25 and over.

Mid-Atlantic Information Office

Economic Analysis & Information215-597-DATA (597-3282)

Mid-Atlantic Information Office Web sitewww.bls.gov/ro3

Information requests by [email protected]

Information requests by fax215-861-5720

7/29/2014

62

http://www.bls.gov/ro3

mailto:[email protected]

Contact Information

Kara MarkleyRegional Economist

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticswww.bls.gov/ro3215-861-5603

[email protected]

economy 2030 (let’s just round up from 2022…) where we’ve been; where we’re going. kara...

Documents

adjusted slide

data bls

delaware slide

maryland slide

atlantic states data

employment national

employment situation

district of columbia