economics study for review

8/14/2019 Economics Study for REVIEW

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A Case Study on Economics of Pokhari Tal Water

Harvesting Pond at Koilapani Nawalparasi

Submitted to:

IIED/LI-BIRD

Pokhara, Nepal

Submitted by:

Shiva Chandra Dhakal

IAAS, Rampur


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June, 2009

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Nepal is an agrarian country where still 65.7 percent people are engaged in agriculture.

Agriculture is the principal component of economy which has been contributing about 38

per cent of GDP. Present growth rate of economy is 3.6 percent per annum and that of

agriculture is 3.7 percent per annum (CDP, 2008)

Nepal has enormous water resources for irrigation development. Her irrigation potential

is 1.8 million ha. At present, Nepal is making use of less than 8 per cent of its waterresource potential. It is estimated that about 69 per cent of the total cultivated area of land

could be irrigated if the available water resources are properly utilized (Yoder, 1996).

The challenge for present is to break out the vicious circle of poverty by accelerating the

agricultural growth rate. Commercialization and market oriented production is essential

to have overall development of the country. Due to high pressure on agricultural land,

expansion of area to meet demand is of limited scope. Therefore, intensification of

agriculture may be the effective solution.

In spite of the attractive plan of APP and planned development of the country, the pace of

agricultural development is far below the expectation. The reasons behind this are

traditional type of farming, lack of agricultural marketing, fragmentation of land holding,

physical constraints etc. Irrigation facility has greater prospective to bring more area

under cultivation to increase agricultural production and productivity. For intensification

of agriculture and to increase productivity of crops, continuous and assured supply of

irrigation is recognized as the prime input. Convenient irrigation systems are recognized

as the pre condition for the adoption of strategic programmes of APP and the planned

development of the government.

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The development in irrigation is inadequate and their performance is less than expected.

The agricultural sector has still relied largely on rainfall. Frequent drought and excessive

rain have hampered the actual growth of agricultural production on one hand, while on

the other; the rapid population growth has led to a situation of food import. Shifting from

traditional subsistence type agriculture to modern commercial and diversified one is

necessary to escape from existing vicious circle of low agricultural productivity.

Adoption of modern technology and extension of irrigation facility could be the solution

for breaking the age old productivity growth stagnation.

Heavy precipitation with large temporal variation is a typical problem facing the

management of water resources in the region, and the problem is likely to intensified in

the future with anticipated scenarios of Global Climate Change. Promotion of water

harvesting can be an adaptive strategy for existing as well as projected impacts as such on

water resources. Water harvesting systems are particularly suitable for the mountainous

regions where majority of the population have to spend a lot of physical energy and time

to fetch water from far away springs. In addition, large amounts of precipitation in the

mountainous region make it an area of higher potential for water harvesting. Water

harvesting through the use of tanks and small pounds and reservoirs may also contribute

towards minimizing the occurrence of floods in downstream areas and towards increased

agriculture productivity. Water harvesting system has successfully been tasted in some

parts of Nepal already.

The study was conducted in Nawalparasi district of Nepal. The study area is situated

between 2712N to 2747N latitudes and 8636 E to 8435 E longitudes, covering an

area of about 2017 square kilometers. The district is surrounded by Chitwan in East,

Rupendehi in West, Palpa and Tanahun in North and India in South. The district has three

distinct climatic regions i.e. tropical, subtropical and temperature lying in the altitude of

100 to 1936 masl.

Like many other developing countries, in Nepal urban centers are also expanding quickly.

To meet the irrigation water of increasing population in semi-urban area of Kawasati,

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Nawalparasi the water used for irrigation was diverted to Kawaswati from Koilapani. In

compensation for the use of the irrigation water users of Kawaswati area has provided a

fund of Rs. 4500000 to the looser of Irrigation water. Irrigation water user of Koilapani

area has decided to reconstruct historically and religiously important Pokhari Tal to meet

irrigation water requirement on draught in the changing scenario of climate change. The

study is thus aimed to do economic analysis of newly restructuring Pokhari Tal in

Nawalparasi.

The Pokhari Tal water harvesting pond is managing by a steering committee having nine

members:

President: Shiva Prasad Bhattari

Secretary: Roshan Bahadur Rawat

Treasure: Chandra Kant Adhikari

Members: Lal Prasd Dhungre

Hom Lal Subedi

Durga Adhikari

Kethman singh

Leknath Adhikari

Shiva Chapagain

1.2 Rational of the study

The most critical impacts of climate change in Nepal can be expected to be on its water

resources, particularly agriculture, glacial lakes, and its hydropower generation. Climate

change impacts on water resources will affect Nepal through a number of pathways,

including disasters, hydropower, irrigation, and domestic water usage. These changes, in

turn, could place additional burdens on the livelihoods of communities in highland

regions. With the dependence on agriculture, over 80 percent of all water in Nepal can be

used for irrigation. In fact, almost 38 percent of agricultural land (mostly in the Terai

Plans) is irrigated, highlighting the importance of integrated water resource management

to sustain livelihoods. Nepal's 6000 rivers feed irrigation systems, power grain mills, and

supply drinking water for villages for thousands of miles downstream.

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Like many other developing countries, in Nepal urban centers are also expanding quickly.

Over 20 percent of the population is now in urban areas, and this is growing by about 5

percent per year. Ensuring adequate water resources for all of the country's various uses

will become an increasingly urgent issue, especially with the added impacts of climate

change (Sharma, 2003).

Table 1.1: Average annual weather data of Study area

Year Maximum temperature (oc) Minimum temperature (oc) Rainfall (cm)

1990 29.69 18.77 NA

1991 30.44 17.74 NA

1992 30.81 17.36 NA

1993 30.58 18.02 NA1994 31.20 18.50 NA

1995 28.39 16.01 NA

1996 30.66 18.14 NA

1997 30.60 17.24 NA

1998 30.64 19.29 219.85

1999 31.46 18.60 211.83

2000 30.75 17.21 175.35

2001 31.15 17.69 195.09

2002 32.00 18.19 211.70

2003 30.62 18.25 244.46

2004 30.73 18.25 135.582005 31.32 18.07 144.83

2006 31.36 18.55 166.43

2007 30.72 18.57 228.55

2008 30.41 18.18 148.83

Source: DDC and DADO, Nawalparasi, 2008 (NA: Not Available)

Maximum and minimum temperature for last Nineteen years and rainfall data for last

Eleven years were collected and regretted in relation to time factor to observe average

annual change in trend of temperature and rainfall. Following results were obtained from

the trend analysis:

Maximum temperature (oc) as function of time factor (in year)

Y=30.20+0.05T

Minimum temperature (oc) as function of time factor (in year)

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Y=17.74+0.02T

Average annual rainfall (cm) as function of time factor (in year)

Y=251.88-4.46T

These results show that maximum temperature and minimum temperature are increasing

by 0.05 oc and 0.02 oc respectively. Against these, average annual rainfall is decreasing

by 4.46 cm per year. These facts shows that average annual temperature is increasing

year by year and average annual rainfall is decreasing year by year. This shows the

necessity of sound irrigation facility especially for winter season crops to maintain and

increase area, production and productivity under crops. Among different sources of

irrigation, water harvesting could be one of the better alternatives. This study aims at

studying feasibility of such water harvesting pond with the following objective.

1.3 Objectives

The study was aimed to judge economic feasibility of Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting

Pond located at Koilapani Nawalparasi. The objective of the study is thus to calculate

NPV, IRR and B: C ratio to perform feasibility study.

2. Methodology

2.1 Study area

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The study was conducted at Koilapani of Shivamandir VDCS in Nawalparasi. The case

study was done in Pokhari Tal, which is one of the pioneer water harvesting ponds in the

country. After the diversion of irrigation water to Kawasati residential area from

Koilapani, the drinking water user group of Kawasati has provided compensation of

Rs.4500000 to reconstruct the Pokhari Tal water harvesting pond to irrigate the cropped

land.

The study site lies at the distance of about 10 km. far from the East-West highway. It is

linked with all weather graveled road up to East-West highway which shows its assess to

market. The product produced here at Koilapani can easily be sold at Narayangarh,

Bhairahawa and even up to Kathmandu valley. The study site falls within the subtropical

climate. It has three distinct seasons: monsoon/rainy (June to Oct), winter (Nov to Feb),

and Spring (March to May). The hottest months of the year are April, May and June,

when the maximum temperature raise to 40 0C and the coldest months of the year

November to February with minimum temperatures varies from 6-10 0C and even lower

but never approaches to freezing point. Monsoon rain starts from June to September, and

June and July receive the highest rainfall upto 150 mm in 24 hours, which is common

during these months. Relative humidity starts rising from May and reaches to 100 per

cent in December and January. The western rain prevails in winter seasons, which

contributes only a fraction of annual rain fall.

2.2 Data and their sources

Both primary and secondary data were collected for the study. Primary data included the

data on capital investment amount, cropping pattern, variable cost of production, crop

income and estimated operation and maintenance cost. Data on these variables were

collected through group discussion and key informants survey. Similarly, required

secondary data were collected through publications of different governmental and

nongovernmental organizations.

2.3 Analytical tools

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The purpose of doing economic analysis of project in this study was to find out whether

the investment will yield a reasonable rate of return to all resources engaged in the

establishment of water harvesting pond. To do the investment analysis of Talpani water

harvesting pond, discounted measures of investment appraisal namely Benefit-cost ratio

(B-C ratio), Net present value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were used. The

criteria are explained below:

2.3.1 Benefit-cost ratio (B-C ratio)

Benefit-cost ratio (B-C ratio) was taken as the ratio of present worth of incremental

benefit stream (cash inflows) to present worth of incremental cost stream (cash outflows)

due to the pond.

B-C ratio =Present worth of incremental benefit stream due to project

Present worth of incremental cost stream due to project

=( )

( )

=

=

+

+n

t

t

t

n

t

t

t

i

C

i

B

1

1

1

1

where,

Bt= incremental benefit in tth period due to project (Rs.)

Ct= incremental cost in tth period due to project (Rs.)

n= number of years

i= interest (discount) rate (%)

Establishing the pond by the community will be financially feasible if the present worth

of incremental benefits is greater than the present worth of incremental costs due to

project or in other words, the B-C ratio exceeds one.

2.3.2 Net present worth (NPW)

It was used as discounted cash flow measure of absolute profitability. Net present worth

(NPW) was computed as present worth of incremental benefits (cash inflows) less present

worth of incremental costs (cash outflows) due to project or, in other words, as present

worth of incremental net benefit (net cash flows) due to project.

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NPW =( )

= +

n

t

t

tt

i

CB

1 1

Where, the notations on right hand side of the equation stand for the same meaning as

given under B-C ratio.

The investment on project will be financially feasible if NPW is positive.

2.3.3 Internal rate of return (IRR)

It is that discount rate which just makes the net present worth of incremental net benefit

stream equal zero. Thus, it is that value of i which makes:

( )= +

n

t

t

tt

i

CB

1 1= 0

The notations are same as given under B-C ratio.

In other words, IRR is the maximum interest that a project can pay for the resources used

if the project is to recover its investment and operating expenses and still just break-even.

The method for interpolating the value of IRR lying between the two discount rates, too

high on one side and too low on the other (between a spread of five percentage points) is

given below:

+=

r a t e sd i s c o u n ta t t w o

N Peb e t w e ed i f f e r e n c eA b s o l u t e

r a t ed i s c o u nl o w e ra tN P W

r a t e sd i s c o u n t

t w oeb e t w e e n t h

D i f f e r e n c e

r a t e

d i s c o u n t

L o w e r

I R R

Investment in project would be financially feasible if IRR is greater than market interest

rate on loan.

2.3.4 Estimation of parameters of the investment criteria

The specific details of the estimation about number of years (n), benefit stream, cost

stream and discount rate (i) are given below:

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2.3.4.1 Number of years (n)

The economic life of a pond was taken equivalent to 30 years considering the life of

assets used in diversion canal. In this study initial investment was assumed as the cost of

first year.

2.3.4.2 Cost stream or cash outflows (Ct)

Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of incremental cash outflow stream as

per accounting convention followed in investment analysis. Expenses were assigned to

the period in which they were paid instead of the period in which they were incurred.

Periodic (yearly) cash outflows were prepared for the 30 years of the project period.

Annual cost stream (cash outflow) included capital cost and operational and maintenance

cost (O and M cost). Capital cost included expenditure made on establishing pond and

allied diversion canal and gate at prices prevailed in 2007-08, the reference year of the

study. These expenditures were shown as initial investment in the first year of the project

period. Yearly O and M cost included expenditures on amount paid to peon and security

gourd, annual cleaning of the pond, maintenance of pond wall, increasing the cost of

cultivation due to change in cropping pattern and interest cost.

2.3.4.3 Benefit stream or cash inflows (Bt)

Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of cash inflow stream also. Receipts

were assigned to the period in which they were earned. Periodic (yearly) cash inflows

were prepared for the 30 years beginning from second year of the project. Periodic

(yearly) cash inflows included estimated increase in income due to change in cropping

pattern, earning through collection of irrigation fee, picnic spot fee etc.

2.3.4.4 Discount rate (i)

The discount rate is that rate, which reflects the required rate of return to cover the

opportunity cost of capital in a riskless situation, the inflation rate and the risk premium.

It was assumed that the above three ingredients of discount rate are fairly reflected in

market rate of interest. Therefore, the existing average interest rate of 12 per cent per

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annum charged by financial institutions in Nepal was taken as the discount rate to do

economic analysis of proposed project.

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3. Result and Discussion

This chapter deals with general information about the project, estimation of incremental

benefit, incremental cost and calculation of discounted measures of investment appraisal

as discussed in methodology.

The capacity of the pond is 150000 m3 (5 ha x 3m) .The estimated command area is 1000

ha. The common cropping pattern of the area rice-wheat-maize and ricefallow-maize.

The area has better edaphic-climatic conditions and market assess for vegetable farming.

The existing cropping pattern is expected to substitute by rice-vegetable-maize and rice-

vegetable-vegetable after provision of irrigation water in winter season from the water

harvesting pond. In the beginning year of the project 30 per cent of total command area

will be grown with vegetable based cropping pattern. It has been made estimation of

shift in growth rate by 5 per cent per annum. Total number of beneficiary households

under command area are 1875. The source of water to fill Pokhari Tal water harvesting

pond is canal water from Kerunga Khola and rain water collected during summer season.

3.1 Estimation of Incremental cost of the project

Incremental cost of the project included initial capital cost of investment to restructure

the pond and to construct the diversion canal including diversion gate. Yearly O and Mcost included expenditures on amount paid to peon and security gourd, annual cleaning of

the pond, maintenance of pond wall, increasing the cost of cultivation due to change in

cropping pattern and interest cost of initial investment.

It was estimated that average variable cost of production in current cropping pattern of

rice-wheat-maize and rice fallow-maize is Rs.34557 per hectare per year. The estimated

gross cost of cultivation after project is Rs. 44924 per hectare per year in second year (30

% more than the cost before project). Thus the incremental cost in second year is Rs.

10367. Then after third year onward assumption is made to increase cost of cultivation

resulted due to changed cropping pattern and increased cropping intensity after project by

5 per cent each year up to Tenth year. After Tenth year the cost of crop cultivation will be

constant for economic life of project with the attainment of its full capacity.

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Table 3.1: Estimated incremental cost of the project

S.N. Particulars Amount in Rs.

(I) Initial investment

1. Cash expenses 4500000

2. Labor contribution 1500000

Total of initial investment 6000000

(II) Yearly operation and maintenance cost

3. Salary of accountant 150000

4. Salary of peon 72000

5. Salary of security gourd 100000

5. Maintenance of pond and diversion canal 500000

6. Incremental cost due to change in croppingpattern per hectare is Rs.10367 (30 % of total

cropped area will be changed in cropping

pattern and cropping intensity)

3110100

7. Interest cost @12 % 720000

Total of yearly O&M cost 4652100

3.2 Estimation of Incremental benefit of the project:

Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of cash inflow stream also. Receipts

were assigned to the period in which they were earned. Periodic (yearly) cash inflows

were prepared for the 30 years beginning from second year of the project. Periodic

(yearly) cash inflows included estimated increase in income due to change in cropping

pattern, increase cropping intensity, earning through collection of irrigation fee, picnic

spot fee etc. It was estimated that average crop income in current cropping pattern of rice-

wheat-maize and ricefallow-maize is Rs.53226 per hectare per year. The estimated gross

crop income after project is Rs. 71868 per hectare per year in second year (35 % more

than the income before project due to changed cropping pattern, increased cropping

pattern and productivity). Thus the incremental crop income in second year is Rs. 18642.

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Then after third year onward assumption is made to increase crop income due to project

by 5 per cent each year up to Tenth year. After Tenth year the crop income will be

constant for economic life of project with the attainment of its full capacity.

Table 3.2: Estimated incremental benefit of the project

S.N. Particulars Amount in Rs.

(I) Incremental crop income

1. Estimated Incremental crop income due to

change in cropping pattern and increasedcropping intensity and productivity per

hectare is Rs. 18642 (25 % is from change in

cropping pattern and 5 % from increase in

cropping intensity and productivity)

5592600

(II) Other income

3. Income from irrigation fee (@Rs.500 per

hectare per year)

500000

4. Income from renting out picnic spot (Rs. 500per group for 300 groups in a year)

150000

Total of yearly income 6242600

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Incremental cash inflow and outflow along with incremental net benefit is shown in

following Table.

Table 3.3: Estimated Cash Inflow and Cash Outflow

Year Initial

investment

O&M cost Incremental income Incremental net

income1 6000000 - - -60000002 - 4652100 6242600 1490500

3 - 4884705 6554730 1670025

4 - 5117310 6866860 17495505 - 5349915 7178990 1829075

6 - 5582520 7491120 1908600

7 - 5815125 9363900 35487758 - 6047730 8115380 2067650

9 - 6280335 8427510 2147175

10 - 6512940 8739640 2226700

11-30 - 6745545 9051770 2306225

Table 3.4: Calculation of discounted measure of investment appraisal

(Value in Rs.000)

Year

Cash

outflow

Cash

inflow

Net

benefit

PV of cash

outflow

PV of cash

inflow

PV of net

benefit

PV of net

benefit (30%)

PV of n

benefit (35%)

1

600000

0

0

-6000000 5358000 0 -5358000 -4614000 -444600

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2

465210

0

624260

0 1590500 3707724 4975352 1267629 941576 87318

3

488470

5

655473

0 1670025 3477910 4666968 1189058 759861 84503

4

511731

0

686686

0 1749550 3254609 4367323 1112714 612343 52661

5

534991

5

717899

0 1829075 3033402 4070487 1037086 492021 40788

6

558252

0

749112

0 1908600 2830338 3797998 967660 395080 31491

7

581512

5

936390

0 3548775 2628437 4232483 1604046 564255 43295

8

604773

0

811538

0 2067650 2443283 3278614 835331 254321 18815

9

628033

5

842751

0 2147175 2267201 3042331 775130 201834 14386

10

651294

0

873964

0 2226700 2097167 2814164 716997 162549 11133

11

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1935971 2597858 661887 1291486 8533

12

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1733605 2326305 592700 99168 6226

13

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1544730 2072855 528126 76105 4612

14

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1382837 1855613 472776 57656 3459

15

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1234435 1656474 422039 46125 2536

16

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 1099524 1475439 375915 34593 1845

17

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 984850 1321558 336709 27675 1383

18

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 876921 1176730 299809 20756 1153

19

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 782483 1050005 267522 16144 691

206745545

9051770 2306225 701537 941384 239847 11531 461

21

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 627336 841815 214479 9225 461

22

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 559880 751297 191417 6919 230

23

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 499170 669831 170661 4612 230

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24

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 445206 597417 152211 4612 230

25

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 397987 534054 136067 2306 230

26

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 357514 479744 122230 2306

27

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 317041 425433 108393 2306

28

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 283313 380174 96861 2306

29

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 249585 334915 85330 0

30

674554

5

905177

0 2306225 222603 298708 76105 0

Total 47334596 57033330 9698734 1485702 -27915

From above table it becomes clear that NPV is Rs.9698734 for the economic life of

project at 12 per cent discount rate. B-C ratio and internal rate of return are 1.20 and

34.20 per cent respectively. As NPV is positive, benefit cost ratio exceeds one and IRR is

greater than discount rate/interest rate the investment in Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting

Pond is economically feasible.

Besides tangible direct benefits accounted above in the generation of benefit-cost stream,

the project is planned to expand the uses of pond for fishery, boating and electricity

generation. The project committee is suffering from the budget limitation to use the pond

for above mentioned diverse purposes and pond lining.

The project has not destroyed any important species of vegetation because the pond area

has previously covered by shrub of banmara (Eupatorium spp.). To protect the canal

boundary and adding beauties to the picnic spot the plantation is going to perform in thisrainy season. At the centre of pond temple of Tal Pokhari Goddess is under construction

to add religious important to this pond and to make it clean.

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4. Summary and conclusion

The study was conducted in Nawalparasi district of Nepal to examine the financial

feasibility of water harvesting pond which have wider scope in the area for agricultural

and non-agricultural purposes. The study was based on group discussion and key

informants survey. The data related to the year 2007-08. Discounted measures of

investment appraisal namely NPV, IRR and B: C ratio was used to accomplish objectives

of the study.

The study revealed that, Benefit-cost ratio, net present worth and internal rate of return

were 1.20, Rs. 9698734 and 34.20 per cent, respectively. As the benefit-cost ratio

exceeds one, NPV is positive, and IRR is greater than discount rate the investment in

Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting Pond is economically feasible. Besides economically, the

project is socially acceptable, environmentally sound, and managerially capable and is

thus feasible from all aspects.

For increasing cropping intensity and area under commercial vegetable crops in the

scenario of climate change, necessary efforts should be made regarding expansion of

irrigation facility. Water harvesting pond is one of the best alternative to irrigate crops in

the seasons of water scarcity. The study has revealed that it is feasible to establish water

harvesting pond at Koilapani, Nawalparasi and this is imperative to establish the similar

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water harvesting pond in other areas of the country to mitigate adverse impacts of climate

change.

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