Economics of Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Evaluation and Decision Making – Macro to Micro

Level

ByProf. S. L. Dhingra

Transportation Systems EngineeringIIT Bombay

The Stages

Conception:◼ Identification of project alternatives

◼ Selection of the best alternative

Implementation:◼ Construction of the project

◼ Operation and Maintenance

Conception of Projects

Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model

Considering

Environmental Protection

Economy

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution Demand

Modal Split

Traffic Assignment Supply

➢Study area

➢Internal zones

➢External zones

➢Plan Periods

➢Demographic and Socio-economic data

➢Protection of planning variables

➢Transport network

➢Origin and Destination Survey

Travel Demand ModelingPlanning Variables

TRIP GENERATION

• Trip Productions

• Trip Attractions

• Aggregate Analysis

• Disaggregate Analysis

• Zonal Models

• Household-based Models

• Regression Models

• Trip-rate Analysis

• Cross-classification Models

Trip Distribution

➢ Growth Factor Method

➢ Synthetic Approach➢ Basic Gravity Model

➢ BPR Gravity Model

➢ Entropy Maximizing Model

➢Optimization Model

Modal Split Models

➢Trip end Modal Split Model

➢Trip Interchange Modal Split Models

➢Synthetic Models

➢ Model derived from trip distribution

➢ Direct Demand

➢Analytical tools for modal split

➢ Diversion curve

➢ Regression analysis

➢ Discrete choice modal

Traffic Assignment Models

•All – Or – Nothing Assignment Method

•Equilibrium Assignment Methods

•Diversion Models

•Dynamic Assignment Models

•Combined Models

•Direct Demand Model

•Combined Distribution Assignment Model

•Combined Modal Split and Route Choice

Models

Tijmrsp

Attraction

1 45

2 903 88

Aj

Production

1 47

2 663 110

Pi

2 3

18 19

32 4

To Zones

1

1 10

2 30

3 5 40 65

45 90 88

47

66110

223

F

r

o

m

Z

o

n

e

s

Tijm

Mode II2515

Mode I

40Route C 3

Route B 17

Route A 5

Tijmr

Tijmrs

(Income)

Medium

3

5

High

9Low

17

Work

2

6

Edud.

1Other

9

Trip Purpose

Education

Work

Other

3

12

2

17

Tijmrp

Example of Travel Estimation

Process

Tij

Travel Demand ModelingOther Approaches

➢ Equilibrium Demand Modeling

➢ Traveler as consumer of transit trips

➢ Micro Economics - Utility Maximization

➢ Activity based analysis (Factors)➢ Individual Traveler Level

➢ Type and Time of Activity

➢ Community Level

➢ Social Level

➢ Destination by mode

➢ Congestion

Rural Road Planning Process

◼ Creation of road development plans (alternatives) for achieving the objectives of integrated rural development.

◼Allocating priorities to rural areas under consideration through the various plans

◼Qualification of the benefits of alternatives and subsequent comparison between competing plans.

◼Selection of the ‘optimal’ road development plan through the above process.

Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a System’s Framework

◼ The Need: -

Huge investments involved and priority needs to be given to villages with higher population and potential market surplus.

◼ The proposals discussed are those initiated by:

➢ the State Government of Karnataka

➢ the Indonesian rural roads study group

➢ the ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network of Thailand

The Karnataka State Government proposal for computing TPI

» Marking or index based system with highest marks

for villages with population greater than 1000 people.

» The indices are based on factors such as population,

village accessibility, local market, regulated market,

hospital, post office, school, and electrification.

» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is

based on the total marks.

» Drawback of method:- only few factors considered.

The Indonesian Rural Road Study Group proposal for computing TPI

» 2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and Provision factors.

» Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic growth, population density, socio-economic benefits expected, area of influence, and network significance.

» Provision factors such as length of road, surface type, surface condition, terrain, carriageway and formation width, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of bridges and major crossings

» TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision factor score)*100.

ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network proposal of Thailand for TPI

» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.

» Benefit factors such as agricultural production, cultivable land, water availability, population, existing road condition, traffic volume, co-operation among people, public utilities and private enterprises.

» Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving certain marks to all the factors.

» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)

Trip Generation & Distribution in a Systems’ Framework

» Village with the highest TPI is identified and is designated as the origin node.

» Destinations to which traffic is generated from the origin node are also identified and are designated as the destination nodes.

» Primary survey enables traffic estimation from the village by different transportation modes as well as distribution among various links.

» For inter zonal trip generation in the village region, a gravity model is hypothesized and calibrated to estimate the slope and intercept coefficients.

Organizational Setup for Planning and Prioritizing

➢ Formation of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)

➢ Preparation of proposal/tender document

➢ Guidelines for selection of tenders

➢ Pre-bid selection

➢ Selection of PMC

➢ Selection of contractors

➢ Proof consultants

UNDP - Government of India

Project on Pro-poor

GlobalisationAim:

Informed and participatory pro-poor

policy making, strategy and programme

formulation

Methodology:◼ Review of already conducted research on pro-

poor and anti-poor impacts of globalisation

◼ Additional research and analysis

◼ Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue

◼ Making information accessible to lay- person

Methodology for Selection of

Proposal

➢ Organisations short-listed on the basis of initial proposals

➢ Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based on their presentations

➢ Initial contract awarded to these 3 organisations to further refine and detail their proposal, work plan and project strategy.

➢ Review of final proposals by a panel

➢ Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal

Decision Making

➢ Importance of decision making at every stage during the project

➢ Two important steps in the decision making process

✓ Course of action, which contains recognition, discovery and contraction of ideas

✓ Finding alternative strategies

➢ Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of attributes

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

◼ Importance in design and planning

◼ Some MCDM techniques:

➢ Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

➢ Fuzzy Set Methodology

➢ Metagame Theory

Analytical Hierarchy Process

➢ Basic principles of AHP✓ Hierarchic representation and decomposition✓ Priority discrimination and synthesis✓ Logical consistency

➢ Series of pair-wise comparisons carried out to obtain the preference order

➢ Each decision alternative assigned a weight

➢ Weights represent the alternatives’ desirability

Applications in fields like:

➢ conflict analysis

➢ operations research

➢ portfolio selection

➢ bid evaluation

➢ capital budgeting

Transportation planning involves Qualitative

and quantitative analysis including uncertain

Attributes and Characteristics.

Fuzzy Analysis takes care of this important

aspect of transportation planning.

FUZZY SET ANALYSIS

FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis

In the study of transportation problems, fuzziness is

found in many aspects of analysis

• Perception of data and information,

• Knowledge base,

• Statement of goals and objectives, and

• Problem definition.

General Procedure for Fuzzy

Analysis

•Define fuzzy problem in detail

•Identify all important variables and their ranges

•Determine membership profiles for each variable

range

•Determine rules(prepositional statements ), and

•Select defuzzification methodology.

The following are the steps of the methodology:

1. Identifying the modes which will form attributes

(i,e., factors) of those coordinated modes.

2. Categorizing different interest groups.

3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as

modes and rows as factors.

4. Constructing of different rating matrices as per

the views of respective interest groups5. Aggregation of rating matrices6. Forming ‘ dominance’ matrix from the dominance

of one mode over the other mode7. Calculating the % share of service by each mode

in a coordinated system.

The city of Calcutta, with five different mass transit

modes, is considered for the case study.

Coordinated Mode

Bus Tram Surface Transport

Underground Railway

Water Transport

Abbreviation BS TR SR UR Wt

The attributes considered for each mode are:Sl. No FACTORS

1 Travel Time

2 Frequency

3 Comfort

4 Cost ( Fare )

5 Congestion ( Traffic )

6 Accident

7 Ease of handling babies and luggage’s

8 Suitability for handicapped and old people

9 Rating in terms of preferences

•The % modal shares among the co-ordinated modes

by both the methods are :

•This indicates the order of priority

•The approaches give the qualitative as well as

quantitative appraisal of the share of different mass

transit modes.

UR WR SR TR BC

Pessimistic Approach 34.5 27.2 21.1 12.2 5.0

Optimistic Approach 37.2 23.9 15.6 12.2 11.1

METAGAME ANALYSIS

◼ Player

◼ Options

◼ Strategy

◼ Outcome

◼ Stability Analysis

Unilateral Improvements

Inescapable Sanctions

Inescapable Improvements

Treatments of Risks and Uncertainty in Projects

◼ The availability of partial or imperfectinformation about a problem leads to two new category of decision-making techniques

◼ Decisions under risk (In terms of a probability function)

◼ Decisions under Uncertainty (No probability function is secure)

Decisions under risk

◼ Decisions under risk are usually based on one of the following criteria

◼ Expected Value

◼ Combined Expected value and variance

◼ Known Aspiration level

◼ Most likely occurrence of a future state

Decisions under uncertainty

◼ They assume that there is no probability distributions available to the random variable.

◼ The methods under this are◼ The Laplace Criterion

◼ The Minimax criterion

◼ The Savage criterion

◼ The Hurwicz criterion

CASE STUDIES

PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION OF

BEAUTIFUL, SMART, LIVABLE, SLUM FREE AND TRAVEL FREE

CITY WITH SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE

PIMPRI CHINCHWAD BRTS PROJECT EVALUATION DURING

IMPLEMENTATION

ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION

SUMMARY

◼ Traditional four stage Transportation Planning methodology is discussed.

◼ Fundamentals behind the various techniques adopted in decision making for mega transportation infrastructure projects are discussed.

◼ An insight is provided into the procedure involved from conception to implementation stage supported by case studies of various transportation projects.

CONCLUSIONS

➢ Projects should be well-conceived and economically efficient, using latest tools for decision analysis.

➢ Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC as well as conflict resolution, for different stages in the projects.

➢ It is necessary to have appropriate institutional set up for effective conception, planning, prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor selection and effective implementation through Q/A checks.

Thank You