economic update: north carolina and the u.s. september 15, 2010 dr. andrew brod center for business...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Update:North Carolina and the U.S.September 15, 2010
Dr. Andrew BrodCenter for Business and Economic ResearchBryan School of Business and EconomicsUniversity of North Carolina at GreensboroEmail: [email protected]: http://cber.uncg.edu
• CBER is the main contact point at UNCG for economic-development research
• Contract research– Economic-impact analyses– Surveys– Economic profiles– Econometrics, data mining… and more!
• Public education
First, a Word from My Sponsor
The Recession is Over, But…
The Recession is Over, But…
The Recession is Over, But…
The Recession is Over, But…
The Recession is Over, But…
It’s Going to be Okay
… according to 2½-year-old Meyer Brod
This Pie Chart Proves It
Expansion of 2001-07: Lame
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Great Recession of 2008-09
• It probably ended in the summer of ‘09.– Longest and deepest recession since the Great
Depression– The non-government National Bureau of
Economic Research will make the official call.
• But the economy isn’t strong yet.– Expansion means things are getting better, not
that they’re good.– Are we measuring and dating recessions
correctly?• Unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.• Should we focus on per-capita real GDP?
Great Recession of 2008-09
• NBER isn’t in the business of forecasting recessions and expansions.– November 2001: Announces that a recession
began in March 2001.– July 2003: Announces that the recession ended
in November 2001.
• NBER’s announcement this time:– Announced in December 2008 that the recession
began in December 2007.– No surprise: 96% of NABE economists surveyed
in November 2008 said a recession was underway.
Great Recession of 2008-09
• A double-dip recession-within-a-recession:– In mid-2008, it looked like we might avoid an
outright recession.• Real GDP actually rose in Q2.• Rising commodity prices not due to speculation,
which implies they were being used.– But on 9/15/08, the government let Lehman
fail.• That’s when things got ugly
• The recession-within-a-recession was the first since the Great Depression to be triggered by a financial crisis.
• Will there be a triple dip?– Probably not
Recession History
• Since WWII, recessions have been short.– That wasn’t always the case.
Average Length (months)
Time Period Recession Expansion
1854–1933 (20 cycles) 22 25
1933–2001 (12 cycles) 10 58
• 1946 Employment Act, 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Act:– Authorized federal govt. to manage economy– Creeping socialism, or effective management?
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Recession History
• Recessions are changing.– The post-recession job recovery is slowing.– Number of months for employment to reach pre-
recession levels:
Pre-1973 1973 1980 1981 1991 200105
101520253035404550
19
25
10
2831
47
2001: 54 in NC
Average of 1st 6 postwar recessions
Source: Economic Policy Institute
Recession History
Will we miss breaking the record set by the 2001 recession?
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Census
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
1973-7519801981-821990-9120012007-09Net of Census
Employment, SA, % change from peak month
Real GDP Growth
GDP in 2005 dollars: Annual growth
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Average growth 1946-2000 = 3.4%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2009 @ -2.6%
Real GDP Growth
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
2008:3 thru 2009:1 were the worst 3 quarters “ever” (since 1947)
Strong growth in 2009:4 but weakening since then
2010:2@ 1.6%
GDP in 2005 dollars: Chge from prev qrtr, SAAR
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
US
NC
Real GDP & GDP/S Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
NC: 2008@ 0.1%
Real GDP/S Growth, 2007.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real GDP/S Growth, 2008.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Payroll Employment
Monthly, SA, millions
1998
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
120,000
124,000
128,000
132,000
136,000
140,000
Late 2008/ early 2009: drops of 600K+ for 5 months in a row
Good rises in spring, but stalling this summer
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug @ 130.3 million
47 months
Payroll Employment in N.C.
Monthly, SA, millions
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
3,500.0
3,700.0
3,900.0
4,100.0
4,300.0
SA employment gains stalling in NC as well
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul @ 3.90 million
54 months
Initial Unemployment Claims
Weekly, in thousands, SA, 4-week moving avg
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Source: Department of Labor
9/4 @ 478K
No longer moving in the right direction
NC Initial Unemployment Claims
Weekly, in thousands, NSA, 4-week moving avg
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Source: Department of Labor
8/28 @ 12.7K
Possibly still moving in the right direction
Unemployment Rates
Improving slowly
US Avg. 1947-2000 = 5.7%
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
US NC
NC: Jul @ 9.8%
US: Aug @ 9.6%
Monthly, SA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
State Unemployment Rates
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
A Little Political Economy
Source: John Judis, “Job One,” The New Republic, September 22, 2009
A Little Political Economy
Source: John Judis, “Job One,” The New Republic, September 22, 2009
A Little Political Economy
Source: John Judis, “Job One,” The New Republic, September 22, 2009
Direction matters as well:
A year later, unemp. is about the same, but Obama’s disapproval rating is up slightly, to 45-50%
A Little Political Economy
A Little Political Economy
Avg. Private Sector Work Week
Monthly, hours per week, SA
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug @ 33.5
Production and non-supervisory employees
Avg. Manufacturing Work Week
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
38.0
39.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
US NC
US: Aug @ 41.2
NC: Jul @ 40.3
Monthly, hours per week, SA for US, NSA for NC
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Production and non-supervisory employees
N.C. Employment GrowthSector 2006 2007 2008 2009
Construction 7.8% 0.1% -13.7% -19.0%
Manufacturing -1.7% -2.6% -7.4% -12.7%
Retail Trade 3.3% 2.1% -4.3% -4.5%
Transportation 2.6% -3.0% -3.2% -9.5%
Information -2.1% -0.1% -0.5% -4.3%
Finance & Insurance 4.5% 1.1% -0.6% -4.9%
Real Estate 6.5% 3.6% -4.5% -1.7%
Professional, Science, Tech 8.7% 5.7% -1.5% -7.6%
Education 6.2% 6.1% 2.1% 6.4%
Health Care 5.9% 4.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Total 3.9% 1.6% -2.8% -4.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Change from December to December, NSA
S&P 500 Index
Daily close, 2008-10
2-J
an
1-M
ay
29
-Au
g
27
-De
c
26
-Ap
r
24
-Au
g
22
-De
c
21
-Ap
r
19
-Au
g
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Oct ‘08: 8th worst month on record
57% from Oct ‘07 peak to Mar ‘09 trough
But 66% since then
2008: 38% 2009: 23% 2010: 1%
Source: Wall Street Journal
9/13 @ 1122
Lowest close since 9/12/96
Consumer Confidence Index
Monthly, SA, 1985 = 100
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Decline in Oct ‘08 was 3rd largest in CCI history
Feb ’09: all-time low since index began in 1967
Source: Conference Board
Aug @ 53.5
Industrial Production Index
Monthly, SA, 2007 = 100
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
80
85
90
95
100
105
Up in 11 of the last 13 months
2008: 9.4% 2009: 1.6% 2010: 4.3%
Sept ’08 was the largest one-month drop since 1946
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Jul @ 93.4
Industrial Utilization
Monthly, SA
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Jun ‘09 level lowest since series started in 1967
But up since then
2008: 8.3% 2009: 1.4% 2010: 3.3%
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Jul @ 74.8%
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
30
40
50
60
70
PMINMI
ISM Indexes: PMI and NMI
Monthly, SA, 50 = “no change”
Dec ‘08 PMI was the lowest since 1980
Source: Institute for Supply Management
PMI: Aug @ 56.3
NMI: Aug @ 51.5
Retail Sales*
*and Food ServicesMonthly, SA, billions of nominal dollars
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Huge drops in Fall ’08, but upward trend throughout ’09 and ‘10
Aggregate annual sales (NSA) 0.4% in 2008 and 6.2% in 2009
Source: Census Bureau
Aug @ $363.7 billion
Retail Auto Sales
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Auto sales fell 27% in 2008!
Cash for Clunkers: 11.5% in Aug ‘09
But then 15.8% in Sep
7.7% in 2009
Source: Census Bureau
Aug @ $55.4 billion
Monthly, SA, billions of nominal dollars
Retail Home-Furnishings Sales
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000Furniture sales fell…
2.9% in ’07
13.3% in ’08
3.1% in ’09
Increases in Fall ‘09 and Winter ‘10 have disappeared
Source: Census Bureau
Aug @ $7.5 billion
Monthly, SA, billions of nominal dollars
Consumer Price Inflation
Monthly change in CPI, SAAR
19
98
19
98
19
99
19
99
20
00
20
00
20
01
20
01
20
02
20
02
20
03
20
03
20
04
20
04
20
05
20
05
20
06
20
06
20
07
20
07
20
08
20
08
20
09
20
09
20
10
20
10
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Still dancing at the edge of deflation
For 2009, +2.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul @ 3.8%
Consumer Price Inflation
Monthly change in CPI, 2008-10, SAAR
“Core” inflation still too close to zero for comfort
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
CoreAll
Oil Prices
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
Crude oil, WTI, spot price ($/bbl), monthly avg.
Source: Department of Energy
Aug @ $76.60
Energy Prices Matter Less Now
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
High oil prices didn’t push us into recession, in part because the economy is becoming more energy-efficient
Source: Department of Energy
Relative annual energy consumption:1000 Btu per dollar of real GDP
Interest Rates
Federal Funds Rate (effective), monthly average
1970
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2004
2006
2008
2010
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Aug @ 0.19%
Interest Rates
Conventional mortgage rate, monthly average
1990
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Aug @ 4.43%
Dollar Hovering
Broad index, 1973 = 100
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Trade-Weighted Dollar Index(real)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Aug @87.9
Housing Slump
• More a debacle than merely a slump, resulting in:– Falling home prices– Falling rates of residential construction
• Commercial not as badly off– Rising inventories– Tighter lending standards
• Broader effects on the economy:– Falling consumer spending (is that so bad?)– Falling credit liquidity (scary stuff)
Here’s a slide from a presentation in early 2008…
I was right to be scared, apparently.
Cheap Money & Housing Boom
Source: Census Bureau
Annual housing starts, in thousands
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
TotalSingle-FamilyMultifamily
Housing: Signs of Life?
Source: Census Bureau
Housing starts: monthly, all uses, in thousands, SAAR
1990
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Aug @546K
April ’09: “all-time low” (since 1959)
15% since then but still 76% from peak
Housing: Signs of Life?
Source: Census Bureau
Monthly residential building permits, in thousands, NSA
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
US (left)NC (right)
Housing: Signs of Life?
Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) = share of homes affordable to a family earning the median metro income.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
HOI% ARM
Source: National Association of Home Builders
Housing: Signs of Life?
* HOI lows for these areas occurred between 2006Q3 and 2007Q3.
Metro area Low* 2010:Q2
Atlanta 63.7 78.9
Chicago 40.3 69.4
New York 5.1 19.9
Phoenix 26.6 80.8
St. Louis 70.4 86.3
San Francisco 5.7 21.0
Seattle 19.3 57.4
Charlotte 59.5 72.9
Greensboro 66.9 81.3
Raleigh 52.6 76.1
USA 40.4 72.3
Source: National Association of Home Builders
No More Home-Price Declines?
CS10: Case-Shiller 10-city home-price index
CPI/OER: CPI for owner-equivalent rent
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
CS10CPI/OER
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Standard & Poor’s
SA, January 2000 = 100
Housing: Some Perspective
Annual residential building permits, thousands
Source: Census Bureau
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Booms and busts are hardly newin the construction industry.
This too shall pass.
Previous Busts
The Financial Crisis
• How did it happen?– Cheap money
• The Fed freaked after 9/11– Principal-agent problems in mortgage lending
• Origination vs. distribution• Shouldn’t someone care if the loan pays off?
– Financial engineering vs. regulation and rating• Innovative products: CDOs, CDSs, etc.• Regulators and rating agencies: Couldn’t keep up,
or prisoners of their economic philosophy?• Finger pointing: CRA vs. CFMA vs. FNMA/FHLMC
– Shocking fact: 82% of all subprime mortgage debt received AAA ratings when repackaged as mortgage-backed securities!
Financial Crisis: Problem Banks
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
NumberAssets
“Problem institutions”:number(left scale);assets($ billions, right scale)
Annual, through 2010:Q2
Financial Crisis: Problem Banks
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
NumberAssets
Number and assets of “problem institutions,” as a percent of the total
Annual, through 2010:Q2
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Prime Subprime
Net pct of institutions reporting tightening lending standards on mortgage loans
No data on subprime since the end of 2008!
Quarterly, NSA, thru 2010:Q2
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net pct of institutions reporting tightening lending standards on commercial real-estate loans
Quarterly, NSA, thru 2010:Q2
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Credit Cards Inst LoansNet pct of institutions reporting tightening lending standards on consumer loans
Quarterly, NSA, thru 2010:Q2
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Net pct of institutions reporting tightening lending standards on C&I loans to medium-to-large businesses
Quarterly, NSA, thru 2010:Q2
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Net pct of institutions reporting stronger demand for C&I loans to medium-to- large businesses
Quarterly, NSA, thru 2010:Q2
Delinquency Rates
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
All real-estate loans (i.e. both residential and commercial)
Quarterly, SA, thru 2010:Q2
Delinquency Rates
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
All consumer loans
Quarterly, SA, thru 2010:Q2
Delinquency Rates
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Commercial and industrial loans
Quarterly, SA, thru 2010:Q2
Concluding Remarks
Concluding Remarks
Concluding Remarks
• Obama a socialist?– If so, then so was Bush…– …and good for him!– Bush’s finest hour?
• Viewing an abnormal economy through the prism of a normal one– Sharply increase in the “monetary base”– Large short-term federal deficits– Normally, these would be unwise policies– But these are not normal times– Think “enema”
Concluding Remarks
• This recession has three unfortunate elements that make a strong recovery unlikely:– Declining domestic demand– Financial crisis– Weak global demand
• Big question:– Will 2010 be like 1938?
Concluding Remarks
• Wells Fargo Economics Group forecasts:
U.S.Indicator
2007 Actual
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 F’cast
2011 F’cast
Real GDPAnnual growth rate
2.1% 0.4% -2.4% 2.7% 2.2%
Unemp RateAnnual average
4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 9.6%
EmploymentChange in millions
0.90 -3.02 -3.95 0.77 1.03
Housing StsMillions of units
1.34 0.90 0.55 0.59 0.81
September 2010 forecast
Concluding Remarks
• Wells Fargo Economics Group forecasts:
U.S.Indicator
2007 Actual
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
2010 F’cast
2011 F’cast
InflationCPI, annual average
2.9% 3.8% -0.3% 1.4% 1.0%
Prime RateAt year end
7.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.31%
Trd-Wtd $Index, 1973=100
73.3 79.4 74.8 77.3 83.0
Crude OilWTI, ann avg/barrel
$72.31 $99.65 $61.80 $77.15 $80.25
September 2010 forecast
Concluding Remarks
• UNC-Charlotte forecasts:
N.C.Indicator
2006 Actual
2007 Actual
2008 Actual
2009 Act/Fore
2010 Forecast
Real GDP/SAnnual growth rate
6.5% 1.3% -0.7% -3.5% 2.2%
Unemp RateDecember rate, SA
4.7% 4.9% 8.5% 10.9% 10.6%
EmploymentGrowth rate,December-December
3.9% 1.6% -3.4% -4.5% 1.5%
June 2010 forecast, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Update:North Carolina and the U.S.September 15, 2010
Dr. Andrew BrodCenter for Business and Economic ResearchBryan School of Business and EconomicsUniversity of North Carolina at GreensboroEmail: [email protected]: http://cber.uncg.edu