economic update - kitchener cambridge waterloo cma, august 2012

7/31/2019 Economic Update - Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo CMA, August 2012

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Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo _________________________ 1Local manufacturing update____________________________ 2


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Your quick update on the latest changes in Statistics Canadas Labour Force Survey results for the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Census

Metropolitan Area.

, the

third consecutive month of local

losses (see Figure 1). Employment

peaked in April, 2012 at 284,100,

but has since declined by 6,200

persons to 277,900 about the

same employment level as January2012.

, corresponding almost

exactly to an 1,800 person

increase in unemployment, with a

small 100 person labour force pool

increase. While the year-over-year

decline of 1,700 jobs is still

moderate, it is noteworthy as this is

the first time since the end of the

recession that employment is down

year-over-year for a given month (see

Figure 2).

surpassed by Guelph and

Ottawa-Gatineau in Ontario. The

participation rate has as usual

remained high despite employment

losses;

, the

fourth highest rate in the country after

Calgary, Edmonton and Guelph.

1 The Census Metropolitan Area consists

of Kitchener, Cambridge, Waterloo,

Woolwich and North Dumfries.

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA year-over-yearemployment change by month

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12

year-over-y

earemploymentchange(thousands)

Peak of the

recession

July, 2012

-1.7 thousand

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA seasonally adjusted

employment since the start of the recession

R2

= 0.737

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12

thousa

nds

Employed Employment trend



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, which is the

first time it has been over 7 per cent since May 2011,

but it is still lower than the current unemploymentrates in London (8.6 per cent), Toronto (8.5 per cent),

and Hamilton (7.5 per cent).

7.1% -2,800

7.9% +10,600

7.3% -30,400

8.3% +163,000Note: U.S. and Canadian rates are calculated differently and

cannot be directly compared.

Manufacturing employment in the Kitchener-

Cambridge-Waterloo CMA has been rising steadily

since October 2011, reaching a five-

year high of 61,400 as of July,

2012. The CMA last posted

manufacturing employment over

60,000 in August, 2007 (see Figure

3); however manufacturing then

constituted 24.1 per cent of total

employment and is currently slightly

less, representing 21.9 per cent of

total employment.

These data are not adjusted so a

month-to-month comparison is not

appropriate, but year-over-year

manufacturing employment in the

CMA is up 11,400 persons, a 23 per

cent increase since July 2011.

The increase in manufacturing

employment is surprising given that hiring

announcements that positively affect local

manufacturing will not be in effect as of the time ofthis survey. For instance, Toyota will be increasing

Lexus production in Cambridge which is expected to

create 400 new jobs, but not until early 2014.2

Similarly, RIM is considered a manufacturer so their

employment losses would be expected to reduce

manufacturing employment as tech workers move into

other industries (e.g., Professional services). But while

overall employment is down in the CMA, RIM losses

are not obvious in the industry breakdown.

The biggest losses by industry year-over-year are in

Trade (wholesale and retail), and by occupation the

biggest losses occurred in Social science, education,

government service, and religion. The growth in

manufacturing is supported by occupational data as

jobs unique to Processing, manufacturing and

utilities are up 9,700 year-over-year.

2 Toyota expanding Lexus production in Cambridge, hiring 400, The

Record, July 24, 2012.

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA employment

in manufacturing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

thousands


Current manufacturing

employment


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Labour force (000) 299.2 301.6 2.0 -1.2

Employment (000) 277.9 280.7 2.1 -1.3

Unemployment (000) 21.3 20.9 1.1 0.4

Participation rate (%) 72.4 73.0 0.5 -1.2

Employment rate (%) 67.2 68.0 0.5 -1.6

Unemployment rate (%) 7.1 6.9 0.4 0.5

economic update - kitchener cambridge waterloo cma, august 2012

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