Economic & Transport Trends Affecting Maine’s Future

Glen Weisbrod Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 2 Oliver Street, Boston, MA 02109www.edrgroup.com

Presentation to MaineDOTAugust 8, 2005

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Topics

Integrating Transportation with the Economy

1. Maine Economy

2. Dependence on Links to Outside Areas

3. External Factors Providing Opportunity for Maine’s Future Economic Growth

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1. The Maine Economy

…A foundation of core export sectors…

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Basic (Traded) Industries

Leather Products Transport Equip Waste MgmtRecreation AccommodationsInsurance

FishFood Products Forestry & Logging Paper MfgWood Products Textile Mills Textile Products

Maine Industries with Above-Average Concentration of Jobs (Inflow of $)

Retail Trade Health Care Government Construction

Largest Maine Industries

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Maine Exports

• Technology Products• Air Cargo Growth • Int. Trade Corridors

(Highest Value, ’02) Paper Electronics Lumber/Wood Fish Industrial Machinery

Maine Exports

(Highest Value, ’02) Canada Singapore & Malaysia Japan & Korea UK & Belgium China & Hong Kong

Recipients

What’s New

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Site of Export from NE US

J.F.K. INTL AIRPORT, N.Y. $ 32.6 BUFFALO-NIAGARA FALLS, N.Y (LAND) $ 10.9 NEW YORK, NY - PORT $ 10.6LOGAN INTL AIRPORT-BOSTON $ 4.6 LAREDO, TEXAS $ 3.4 CHAMPLAIN-ROUSES PT., NY (LAND) $ 3.0 NEWARK, NJ - PORT $ 2.7NEWARK INTL AIRPORT $ 1.9NEW ORLEANS INTL AIRPORT $ 1.8 DETROIT, MICHIGAN (LAND) $ 2.1 ALEXANDRIA BAY, NY (LAND) $ 2.1 BALTIMORE, MD - PORT $ 2.1PHILADELPHIA INTL AIRPORT $ 1.9 HIGHGATE SPRINGS-ALBURG, VT (LAND)$ 1.6ANCHORAGE INTL AIRPORT $ 1.2 NORFOLK, VA - PORT $ 1.2 LOS ANGELES/LONG BEACH - PORT $ 1.2

by Port of Exit, $ Billions of Value, 2002

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Maine Product Exports

Maine Exports ($1.8b) via 1 Calais 2 JFK Airport 3 Jackman 4 Buffalo, NY 5 Derby, VT 6 Eastport 7 Logan Airport

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Expanding Markets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MfgShipmentValue

Population

Freight ton-miles

Value of Mfg

Freight Ton-Miles

Population

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Maine – Modal RelianceValue $ Billions -- Freight To, From, Within Maine

1998 2020 % GrowthAir 2 10 400%Highway 46 132 187%Rail 4 10 150%Water 1 5 400%Other 4 6 50%

Domestic 42 118 181%International 15 46 207%

State Total 57 164 188%

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2. Dependence on Links to Outside Areas

…Current Reliance on N-S Corridor…

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Truck Flows to/from Maine

Truck Access to/from Maine’s Businesses depends critically on the I-95 Corridor through NYC

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Highway Congestion

1998 2020

But Maine’s Access Route via I-95 and NYC is moving towards Gridlock!

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Cross-Border Truck Flows

Currently New England products have larger volumes crossing in Vermont and NY State.

This becomes harder to sustain with increasingly congested Interstate highway Routes.

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3. External Factors Provide New Opportunity for Growth

…Trade Corridors…

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Why a Corner of the Action?

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Why Left Out of US Planning?

Federal High Priority Corridors

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An Alternative ViewEmerging Global Trade Network

Integrated, Intermodal Logistics

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NE Can-Am Connection• U.S. -- Maine to northern tier of New Hampshire,

Vermont, and New York • Canada provinces: Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova

Scotia, Prince Edwards Island

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Common Economic Distress

aging populationhigh unemploymentlow population growth declining industries (paper, agriculture)

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Limited E-W Connections• Six N-S Interstate Highways

(I-95, I-93, I-91, I-89, I-87, I-81)• No E-W Interstate north of I-90• E-W link in Canada has detour

around Maine

Poor Access to prod. centers in N. Midwest (Lake Huron to Maine Coast = 600 mi by air, 2000 mi by road)

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Potential for Trade Route

Region is between 2 Powerful Economic centers: Boston -Washington corridor to the South and Chicago - Quebec corridor to the West

Hwy and Rail Route: Potential to intersect with six North-South interstate corridors within 500 miles

•Two corridors account for 40% of GDP of US and CA

• Region needs access to US Midwest & Canada to grow

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Increasingly Global Economy

• New connections justified by changing trade routes (e.g., NAFTA) and emerging global economy (air and seaport connections)

• Old connections degrading due to congestion and over-concentration

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…On the Web

Northeast CanAm Connections www.canamconnections.com

Transportation& Economic Development Conference www.ted2006-littlerock.org

March 28-30, 2006

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Contact Info

Economic Development Research Group, Inc.2 Oliver Street, 9th FloorBoston, MA 02109 USA617-338-6775www.edrgroup.com

Bibliography of Links to Reports on Transportation & Economic Development www.edrgroup.com/edr1/library