economic & stock market outlook 2012 financial planning symposium october 27, 2011 bruce bittles...

Economic & Stock Market Outlook 2012 Financial Planning Symposium October 27, 2011

Bruce BittlesChief Investment Strategist

(941) [email protected]

Please refer to Appendix – Important Disclosures

The End of the Debt Super Cycle

Baird Market & Investment Strategy │

(HOT201101201B_C)

Quarterly Data 3/31/1947 - 9/30/2010 (Log Scale)

Debt High

Debt Low

Nominal GDP Gain/Annum When:

Gain/ % Debt/GDP is: Annum of Time

* Above 270% 4. 0 15. 0

Between 160% and 270% 6. 5 33. 1

Below 160% 7. 6 52. 0

Real GDP Gain/Annum When:


* Above 270% 1. 7 15. 0

Between 160% and 270% 3. 2 33. 1

Below 160% 3. 7 52. 0

Nonfarm PayrollsGain/Annum When:


* Above 270% -0. 2 15. 0

Between 160% and 270% 1. 8 33. 1

Below 160% 2. 3 52. 0

Source: Department of CommerceDepartment of Labor Federal Reserve Board

132

137

143

149

155

162

169

176

183

191

199

207

216

225

234

244

254

265

276

288

300

312

325

339

353

368

132

137

143

149

155

162

169

176

183

191

199

207

216

225

234

244

254

265

276

288

300

312

325

339

353

368

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total Credit Market Debt's (All Sectors, as a % of GDP) Potential Impact On Growth

Copyright 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research

1985

Total Debt/GDP

Admitting the Problem The Next Step?

Source: Ned Davis Research Baird Market & Investment Strategy │

Quarterly Data 3/31/1946 - 12/31/2010

(E300)

Government Spending as a % of GDP (60.0-Year Average = 19.5% of GDP)

12/31/2010 = 25.4% ( )

Taxes as a % of GDP (60.0-Year Average = 18.0% of GDP)

12/31/2010 = 15.9% ( )

Data Subject To Revisions ByThe Federal Reserve Board 13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Surplus as a % of GDP

Deficit as a % of GDP

12/31/2010 = -9.6%

(60.0-Year Average = -1.5% of GDP)-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10 1 2 3 4 5

-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10 1 2 3 4 5

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Taxes and Government Spending


Spending/GDP

Taxes

Surplus

Deficit

Debt Restricts Growth


Quarterly Data 3/31/1963 - 6/30/2009

(DAVIS131)

6/30/2009 = 52.9%

46.5-Year Mean = 103.7%

556065707580859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175

556065707580859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175

3/31/2009 Debt = $52.9 Trillion3/31/2009 GDP = $14.2 Trillion

= 373.1%

144.7

158.2 Data Subject To Revisions ByThe Federal Reserve Board

46.25-Year Mean = 211.6%

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Nominal GDP (Ten-Year % Change)

Total Credit Market Debt (All Sectors) as a % of GDP

New Chart

Source: Federal Reserve and Ned Davis Research

GDP Growth 1986

1955 $1.35 of Debt Produced $1.00 GDP 2005 $5.75 of Debt Produced $1.00 GDP

2010

Debt Expansion

Personal Savings Rate and Growth


(DAVIS146)

Yearly Data 12/31/1939 - 12/31/2010

%

High Saving Rate

Low Saving Rate

Source: Department of CommerceDepartment of Labor Bureau of Economic Analysis

Nominal GDP Gain/Annum When:

Gain/ % Personal Saving Rate is: Annum of Time

Above 8.6% 10. 1 33. 8

* Between 4.5% and 8.6% 6. 1 50. 7

Below 4.5% 5. 8 15. 5

Real GDP Gain/Annum When:


Above 8.6% 3. 9 33. 8

* Between 4.5% and 8.6% 3. 6 50. 7

Below 4.5% 3. 0 15. 5

Nonfarm PayrollsGain/Annum When:


Above 8.6% 2. 6 33. 8

* Between 4.5% and 8.6% 1. 9 50. 7

Below 4.5% 1. 1 15. 5

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Personal Saving Rate's (%) Potential Impact On Growth

Chart has been reanalyzed due to data revision


8.50%

5.4%


WWII

1985

Serial Bubble Creators

HOT201110061_C © Copyright 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

Student Loan Debt Outstanding ($ Billions) Monthly Data 1977-01-31 to 2011-07-31


Student Loan Debt Outstanding ($ Billions) Monthly Data 1977-01-31 to 2011-07-31

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

0 102030

405060708090

100

110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

190 200 210 220 230 240 250

260 270 280 290 300 310 320

330 340 350 360 370 380

0 102030

405060708090

100

110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

190 200 210 220 230 240 250

260 270 280 290 300 310 320

330 340 350 360 370 380

Nonrevolving Student Loan Debt extended directly by the federal government

and by SLM Holding Corp, the parent company of Sallie Mae.

2011-07-31 = 385.7

Student Loan Debts Outstanding

1990

2004

QE2 Limited Value to Economy

Baird Market & Investment Strategy │ Page 8

(E0761)

Monthly Data 1/31/1976 - 12/31/2010 (Log Scale)

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Excludes short sales and lender owned properties

12/31/2010 = 137.3Source: CoreLogic National House Price Index, Haver Analytics

-32.1%

242730343843495563718090

102 116 131 148 167 189

242730343843495563718090

102 116 131 148 167 189

Home Prices Rising

Home Prices Falling

12/31/2010 = -5.5%

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10

-8-6-4-20 2 4 6 8

101214161820

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10

-8-6-4-20 2 4 6 8

101214161820

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

CoreLogic National House Price Index

CoreLogic National House Price Index (Year-to-Year % Change)

Chart title has been changed.



National Home Price Index

Home Price Trends

Home Sales in Previous Cycles

Source: Ned Davis Research Baird Market & Investment Strategy │ Page 9

(E876J)

Monthly Data 12/31/2006 - 9/30/2012

Assumes home sales bottomed in January 2009

Current Housing Cycle ( )

Average of Past Housing Cycles(Excludes 1980)

( )

Re

sid

en

tia

l C

on

str

uctio

n S

pe

nd

ing

Tro

ug

h (

+3

)

De

linq

ue

ncy R

ate

Pe

ak (

+6

)

Fo

reclo

su

re R

ate

Pe

ak (

+11

)

Exis

tin

g H

om

e P

rice

s T

rou

gh

(+

4)

828486889092949698

100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 156 158 160

828486889092949698

100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 156 158 160

2007M J S D

2008M J S D

2009M J S D

2010M J S D

2011M J S D

2012M J S

Performance of Total Single-Family Home Sales vs Average of Past Housing Cycles


Avg. Past Cycles

Current Cycle

Fed Policy and Job Creation


(HOT201109131_C)

Monthly Data 12/31/2005 - 12/31/2011

*Dates used for determining economic recessionsare those designated by the National Bureau ofEconomic Research. The data has been adjustedfor ease of comparison with the current cycle.Recession starting dates used: December 1969, November 1973, January 1980, July 1981, July 1990, and March 2001.

Recession started in December 2007

Current Cycle ( )

Average of Last Six Post World War II Recessions*

( )

93.693.994.294.594.895.195.495.796.096.396.696.997.297.597.898.198.498.799.099.399.699.9

100.2 100.5 100.8 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.0 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.2 103.5 103.8 104.1 104.4 104.7 105.0

93.693.994.294.594.895.195.495.796.096.396.696.997.297.597.898.198.498.799.099.399.699.9

100.2 100.5 100.8 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.0 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.2 103.5 103.8 104.1 104.4 104.7 105.0

2006M J S D

2007M J S D

2008M J S D

2009M J S D

2010M J S D

2011M J S D

Performance of Nonfarm Payrolls vs Average of Last Six Recessions and Aftermath


Recession

Current Cycle Job Growth

Government Transfer Payments as a % of Disposable Income


Government Transfer Receipts as a % of Disposable Personal Income Monthly Data 1959-01-31 to 2011-07-31


Government Transfer Receipts as a % of Disposable Personal Income Monthly Data 1959-01-31 to 2011-07-31

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

20.3%

12%

The Illusion of Economic Strength



Lead A Horse to Water But…..

Quarterly Data 3/31/1959 - 6/30/2011

(E0521)

6/30/2011 = 1.66x M2 Velocity (GDP/M2)

1.621.651.681.711.741.771.801.831.861.891.921.951.982.012.042.072.102.13

1.621.651.681.711.741.771.801.831.861.891.921.951.982.012.042.072.102.13

6/30/2011 = 7.79x M1 Velocity (GDP/M1)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

M2 & M1 Money Supply Velocities



Velocity Of Money M2

Purchasing Power of U.S. Dollar?



(HOT201010121B_C)

$1CPI

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency."- Lord John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)

8/31/2010 = 5 Cents

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics4.7

5.7

7.0

8.6

10.5

12.9

15.8

19.3

23.6

29.0

35.5

43.5

53.3

65.3

79.9

97.9

4.7

5.7

7.0

8.6

10.5

12.9

15.8

19.3

23.6

29.0

35.5

43.5

53.3

65.3

79.9

97.9

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar ($1 in 1914)


1920 2000

Is Gold Money?“No”! Ben Bernanke


Real Wage Growth Now Negative

Baird Market & Investment Strategy │ Page 18 Source: Ned Davis Research

Lost Decade for Employment


1998 2010

Interest Rate Outlook 2011 - 2012


5.00%

4.00%

1.74%

The Road to RecoveryWhat Is Needed


Tax Reform

• Flat Tax

• Lower Corporate Rates/Remove Loopholes

•National Sales Tax (Not a good idea)

Fed Policy

• Focused on Stable Dollar

Budget Reform

•Confront Entitlements

•Cap Spending as a Percentage GDP to 20%

U.S. Energy Policy

•Considering Only Oil and Natural Gas

Economic Outlook for 2011-2012Secular Risks Remain


•Stock Market Trends Indicate Recession Risks High

•GDP Growth for 2011 Expected to Be 1.2 to 1.5%

•GDP Growth for 2012 Expected to Be 1.5% To 2.0%

• Interest Rates Expected to Stay Low and Stable

• Inflation Trends Higher in 2011 Lower in 2012

•Unemployment to Remain Stubbornly High

•Consumer as a % of GDP in Secular Decline

•Home Prices Remain Under Pressure

Stocks Market Outlook


Weight of the Evidence

Fundamental Factors

•Federal Reserve Policy Bullish +1

•Economic Fundamentals Bearish -1

•Valuations Neutral 0

Technical Factors

• Investor Sentiment Bullish +1

•Seasonal Influences Neutral -1

•Tape Bearish -1

Weight of the Evidence = Neutral

Federal Reserve Policy - Bullish Don’t Fight the Fed

Baird Market & Investment Strategy │ Page 25Source: Ned Davis Research

Daily Data 9/02/2008 - 8/10/2011

(HOT201108111_C)

Standard & Poor's 500 Index

QE1 announced

QE1 expanded

QE1 ends

Bernankehints at QE2

QE2 launched

QE2 ends

680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960 980

10001020104010601080110011201140116011801200122012401260128013001320134013601380

680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960 980

10001020104010601080110011201140116011801200122012401260128013001320134013601380

S O N D J 2009

F M A M J J A S O N D J 2010


F M A M J J A

Fed Policy Moves


QE1 Ends QE2 Ends

QE 2 Launched

Jackson Hole/Bernanke

QE1

Economic Fundamentals - Bearish


(HOT201102111A_C)


1/31/2011 = 1286.1

Standard & Poor's 500 Index Gain/Annum When:

Gain/ % Nonfarm Payrolls (Y/Y) is: Annum of Time

Above 3.9 -0. 6 19. 2

* Between -.1 and 3.9 6. 2 59. 2

Below -.1 15. 6 21. 6

9 1216212836486384

110 146 193 254 336 443 585 772

10191345

9 1216212836486384

110 146 193 254 336 443 585 772

10191345

1/31/2011 = 0.8%

Strong Employment Growth

Weak Employment Outlook

Source: Department of Labor -7-6-5-4-3-2-10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10111213141516

-7-6-5-4-3-2-10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10111213141516

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Standard & Poor's 500 Index

Nonfarm Payrolls (Year-to-Year % Change) Copyright 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.

. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

S&P 500

Non-Farm Payrolls

Corporate Earnings and the Stock Market



(AA380)

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Gain/Annum When:

Expected EPS Gain/ % Growth Is: Annum of Time

* Above 14.2% -0. 5 16. 0

Between 4.2% and 14.2% 6. 9 65. 2

4.2% and Below 17. 2 18. 8

Buy/Hold 8. 2 100. 0

Calculation is median 12-month percent change in rolling one-year forecasted EPS.Rolling one-year forecasted EPS is a time-weighted average of current fiscal

year's earnings estimates and following fiscal year's earnings estimates. Forecasted EPS based on median estimates from Zacks Investment Research.

111 127 145 166 190 218 250 286 327 374 428 490 561 643 736 842 964

110312631446

111 127 145 166 190 218 250 286 327 374 428 490 561 643 736 842 964

110312631446

Median Estimated One-Year Earnings Growth Rate for S&P 500 Index Components (%)

7/31/2011 = 16.3%

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

S&P 500 vs Median Expected Earnings Growth


S&P 500 Index

High Expectations

Earnings Expectations Low

Sentiment – Active Money Manager - Bullish


(DAVIS134)

Daily Data 7/05/2006 - 10/06/2011 (Log Scale)

Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index Gain/Annum When:

Gain/ % NAAIM Survey is Annum of Time

Above 73% -10. 2 22. 6

Between 14% and 73% -1. 7 70. 0

* Below 14% 30. 9 7. 3

695 726 759 793 828 865 904 945 987

1031107811261176122912841342140214651531

695 726 759 793 828 865 904 945 987

1031107811261176122912841342140214651531

NAAIM member firms who are active money managersare asked each week to provide a number which representstheir overall equity exposure at the market close on aspecific day of the week, currently Wednesdays. (Weekly Data Updated Twice a Month)

Source: National Association of Managers Sentiment (NAAIM)http://www.naaim.org/newsroom.php

High Average Allocation (%) Optimistic

Low Average Allocation (%) Pessimistic-50 5

101520253035404550556065707580859095

-50 5

101520253035404550556065707580859095

S N J 2007

M M J S N J 2008

M M J S N J 2009

M M J S N J 2010

M M J S N J 2011

M M J S

Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index

National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Survey Average Copyright 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.


S&P 500

80%

Consumer Confidence


(S1060A)


Oct 1968Dec 1972

Sep 1987Feb 1989

Jun 1998

Jan 2000

Dec 1974

May 1980

Oct 1982

Jan 1991

Feb 1992

Mar 2003

Oct 2007

Mar 2009

DJIA Gain/Annum When: (2/28/1969 - 7/31/2011)

Consumer Gain/ % Confidence is: Annum of Time

Above 110 -0. 2 20. 8

Between 66 and 110 6. 4 61. 5

* 66 and Below 14. 4 17. 7

7/31/2011 = 12143.2 452 557 687 848

10461290159219632422298836864547560969208536

10530 12990 16025 19769

452 557 687 848

10461290159219632422298836864547560969208536

10530 12990 16025 19769

Extreme Optimism = Bearish for Stocks

Extreme Pessimism = Bullish for StocksSource: The Conference Board20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) Copyright 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.


Dow Industrials

Consumer Confidence

Contrary Opinion and Stock Market Profits



Dow Jones Industrial Average And Five Key Events Of 2011 Daily Data 2010-12-31 to 2011-08-09 (Log Scale)


Dow Jones Industrial Average And Five Key Events Of 2011 Daily Data 2010-12-31 to 2011-08-09 (Log Scale)

Jan '11 03 12 24

Feb '11 02 11 23

Mar '11 04 15 24

Apr '11 04 13 25

May '11 04 13 24

Jun '11 03 14 23

Jul '11 05 14 25

Aug '11 03 12

10,509

10,615

10,721

10,829

10,938

11,048

11,159

11,271

11,384

11,499

11,614

11,731

11,849

11,968

12,088

12,210

12,333

12,457

12,582

12,708

12,836

12,965

13,095

10,509

10,615

10,721

10,829

10,938

11,048

11,159

11,271

11,384

11,499

11,614

11,731

11,849

11,968

12,088

12,210

12,333

12,457

12,582

12,708

12,836

12,965

13,095

Japan Nuclear Crisis Fear

Bin Laden Death

Apple Earnings Blowout

Debt Ceiling Agreement

AAA Downgrade

Bin Laden Death

Japan Disaster

S&P Downgrade

Apple Earnings

Valuations - Neutral Median Price / Earnings Ratio


(DAVIS100)


Price Move of:

41.1% to Overvalued (+1SD) = S&P 500 Level of 1480.95

5.7% to Median Fair Value = S&P 500 Level of 1109.15

-29.7% to Undervalued (-1SD) = S&P 500 Level of 737.34

8/31/2010 = 1049.33 708398

116 137 162 192 226 268 316 374 442 523 618 730 863

102012061426

708398

116 137 162 192 226 268 316 374 442 523 618 730 863

102012061426

8/31/2010 = 15.8

Very Overvalued

Overvalued

Bargains

41.8-Year Median = 16.7

Me

dia

n+

1 S

D

+2

SD

-1

SD

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index

S&P 500 Median Price/Earnings Ratio (NDR Calculation) with Historical Median Copyright 2010 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.


S&P 500 Index

Median Price/Earnings Ratio

40 Year Norm

Price / Earnings16x

Seasonal Patterns - Bullish


(SSF10_11A_C)

2011-2012 Cycle Composite Equally-Weighted:

One-Year Seasonal Cycle Four-Year Presidential Cycle

10-Year Decennial Cycle

Based On Daily Data 1/3/1928 - 11/18/2010 Line represents cumulative percent gain.

Trend is more important than level. 100.2

100.5

100.8

101.1

101.4

101.7

102.0

102.3

102.6

102.9

103.2

103.5

103.8

104.1

104.4

104.7

105.0

105.3

105.6

105.9

106.2

106.5

106.8

107.1

107.4

107.7

108.0

108.3

108.6

108.9

109.2

109.5

109.8

100.2

100.5

100.8

101.1

101.4

101.7

102.0

102.3

102.6

102.9

103.2

103.5

103.8

104.1

104.4

104.7

105.0

105.3

105.6

105.9

106.2

106.5

106.8

107.1

107.4

107.7

108.0

108.3

108.6

108.9

109.2

109.5

109.8

J 2011


F M A M J J A S O N D

S&P 500 Cycle Composite For 2011 And 2012


Summer 2011

Second Qtr 2012

Stock Market Breadth – Bearish


Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction


(DAVIS90)

Quarterly Data 3/31/1990 - 6/30/2011

6/30/2011 = $249.34 Trillion(Total Notional Amount of Derivatives Contracts at all U.S. Commercial Banks)

5 101520253035404550556065707580859095

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250

5 101520253035404550556065707580859095

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total Notional Derivatives


Total Notional Derivatives $249 Trillion

Black Swan Events1987, Flash Crash Day, Lehman, Enron, Bear Stearns, UBS….

Contact Information

Bruce BittlesChief Investment Strategist Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.(941) [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

Appendix - Important DisclosuresThis is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COMPANIES MENTIONED HEREIN IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST

The indices used in this report to measure and report performance of various sectors of the market are unmanaged and direct investment in indices is not available.

Baird is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. Baird is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, FINRA, and various other self-regulatory organizations and those laws and regulations may differ from Australian laws. This report has been prepared in accordance with the laws and regulations governing United States broker-dealers and not Australian laws.

Copyright 2011 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated

Other Disclosures

UK disclosure requirements for the purpose of distributing this research into the UK and other countries for which Robert W Baird Limited holds an ISD passport.

This report is for distribution into the United Kingdom only to persons who fall within Article 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2001 being persons who are investment professionals and may not be distributed to private clients. Issued in the United Kingdom by Robert W Baird Limited, which has offices at Mint House 77 Mansell Street, London, E1 8AF, and is a company authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. For the purposes of the Financial Services Authority requirements, this investment research report is classified as objective.

Robert W Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license. RWBL is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FSA requirements and not Australian laws.


economic & stock market outlook 2012 financial planning symposium october 27, 2011 bruce bittles...

Documents

ned davis research slide

pressure slide

ned davis research gdp

ned davis research wwii

stock market trends

debt expansion slide

economic stock market

natural gas slide