economic prospects for cairns
DESCRIPTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. WS (Bill) Cummings. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS. Presentation to MARINE QUEENSLAND. Ref: J2413 | March 2011. RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS. Cummings Economics / March 2011. Number. DWELLING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNSOVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS
Ref: J2413 | March 2011
Presentation to
MARINE QUEENSLAND
WS (Bill) Cummings
Cummings Economics / March 2011 2
Year
1976/77
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/110%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
* Note: Expected order of magnitude growth rate 2009/10 & 2010/11.Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
ACTUAL *EXPECTED
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS
DWELLING APPROVALSFar North Queensland Statistical Division
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Number
3 Cummings Economics / March 2011
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALSFar North Queensland Statistical Division
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
$M
4 Cummings Economics / March 2011
Cummings Economics / March 2011 5
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Growth 1996-2001 Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing -9.20% -31.08%Mining -31.59% 8.62%Manufacturing 1.95% 3.19%Electricity, gas, water & waste services 46.67% 78.33%Construction -16.63% 46.04% Construction Affected
Wholesale trade -6.90% -13.56%Retail trade 14.79% 27.28%Accommodation & food services -0.76% -1.98%Transport, postal & warehousing 4.26% 18.11%Information media & telecommunications
-10.81% -15.15%
Financial & insurance services -12.62% 1.96% Construction Affected
Rental, hiring & real estate services -8.33% 16.50% Construction Affected
Professional, scientific & technical services
-0.69% 19.78%
Administrative & support services 3.53% 8.88%Public administration & safety 10.11% 51.38%Education & training 17.88% 32.54%Health care & social assistance 13.15% 45.40%Arts & recreation services -4.62% -4.20%Other services -15.20% -4.48%
Inadequately described/Not stated -34.83% -3.11%
Total 0.38% 16.75%
6
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
7
Workforce Far North Queensland Statistical Division (1)
AverageEmployed
(‘000)
AverageUnemployed
(‘000)
TotalWorkforce
(‘000)
AverageUnemployment Rate
%
2008 1st half 130.8 8.0 138.8 5.8%
2nd half 137.4 8.0 145.4 5.5%
2009 1st half 129.1 14.6 143.7 10.2%
2nd half 132.1 16.3 148.4 11.0%
2010 1st half 133.5 16.6 150.1 11.0%
2nd half 137.3 13.1 150.4 8.7%
Growth 2nd half 2010 on 1st half 2008
No. 7.3 5.1 11.6
Percent +5.5% +63.8% +8.4%
(1) Note: Cairns city and its servicing region.Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
8
ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1)
Estimated 2008/09 Income
Tourism $2.5 bn
Primary industries $1.7 bn
Mining $0.7 bnOther (manufacturing, service industries, regional trade, etc) $1.0 bn
Total $5.9 bn
(1) Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
%
9 Cummings Economics / March 2011
PILOTS DISPUTE
ASIANCRISIS
ANSETTCOLLAPSE
GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2008/09)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
Gross Value Agricultural Production(Long Term Growth 1982/83 to 2008/09)
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
$M
Cummings Economics / March 2011
VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
$M
11 Cummings Economics / March 2011
12
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Cummings Economics / March 2011
Growth 1996-2001 Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing -9.20% -31.08% A AGRICULTURE
Mining -31.59% 8.62% M MINING
Manufacturing 1.95% 3.19%Electricity, gas, water & waste services 46.67% 78.33%Construction -16.63% 46.04%
Wholesale trade -6.90% -13.56%Retail trade 14.79% 27.28%Accommodation & food services -0.76% -1.98% T TOURISM RELATED
Transport, postal & warehousing 4.26% 18.11%Information media & telecommunications
-10.81% -15.15%
Financial & insurance services -12.62% 1.96%Rental, hiring & real estate services -8.33% 16.50%Professional, scientific & technical services
-0.69% 19.78%
Administrative & support services 3.53% 8.88%Public administration & safety 10.11% 51.38% G
Education & training 17.88% 32.54% G GOVERNMENT SERVICES
Health care & social assistance 13.15% 45.40% G
Arts & recreation services -4.62% -4.20% T TOURISM RELATED
Other services -15.20% -4.48% T TOURISM RELATED
Inadequately described/Not stated -34.83% -3.11%
Total 0.38% 16.75%
13 Cummings Economics / March 2011
14 Cummings Economics / March 2011
15
LATE 2008 & 2009
• JAPANESE FLIGHTS DECISION
• CONSTRUCTION FINANCE STOPS OVERNIGHT
• COMMODITY PRICES DROP
• INTEREST RATES DROP
• AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DROPS
Cummings Economics / March 2011
16
Monthly Passenger Movements Cairns Airport Percent Increase on Same Month Previous Year
2010 International Terminal
DomesticTerminal Total
Jan (-4.1%) (-11.8%) (-10.7%) Feb +27.1%* +6.3% +9.5% March +5.2% (-2.3%) (-1.1%) April +34.9% (-2.9%) +1.5% May +22.2% (-0.7%) +2.6% June +31.9% +8.7% +12.1% July +20.1% +4.2% +6.6% Aug +31.0% +4.1% +8.2% Sep +30.7% +8.0% +11.3% Oct +29.7% +6.9% +10.1% Nov +39.1% +5.7% +10.3% Dec +27.2% +15.0% +17.0%2011 Jan +30.9% +0.8% +14.0%* Note: Affected by timing and Chinese New Year.Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Cummings Economics / March 2011
17 Cummings Economics / March 2011
18
FUTURE
• AGRICULTURE
• TRADE WITH PNG
• FLY - IN
• GOVERNMENT SECTOR
Cummings Economics / March 2011
19
FUTURE
RECOVERY ONLY WHEN PRIVATE BUILDING APPROVALS RECOVER
Cummings Economics / March 2011
20
RENTAL VACANCY RATES
Cummings Economics / March 2011
21 Cummings Economics / March 2011
22
MARINE SECTOR
Cummings Economics / March 2011
RESIDENTIAL LEISURE
• POPULATION GROWTH AT STANDSTILL• NOT SPENDING / SAVING
TOURISM • RECOVERING BUT NOT BACK TO WHERE BEFORE• HIGH DOLLAR
MARITIME SERVICING AND SHIP BUILDING
NO EXPANSION IN TOURISM FLEET IN SIGHT
TRADING - YES • MINING • PENINSULAR• PNG
NAVY • PRESSURE BUT DOWN THE TRACK
SLIPWAYS • HIGH DOLLAR• COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
SUPERYACHT • APPLAUD• PAY OFF DOWN THE TRACK
23
MARINE SECTOR
Cummings Economics / March 2011
NEED FOR RENEWED EMPHASIS ON PORTS AND MARINE SECTOR
The Cairns Economy
Cummings Economics
38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870Ph: 40312888 | Email: [email protected] | Fax: 40311108
Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009
www.cummings.net.au
Presentation to the Marine Queensland
24