economic overview october 2015. production productivity employment, working hours inflation, output...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic Overview
October 2015
![Page 2: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
•Production•Productivity•Employment,
working hours•Inflation, output
prices•Wages, unit
labour cost•Trade balance
Outline (1) Total Economy
(2) Industry
2
![Page 3: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Total Economy
![Page 4: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Slight improvement in economic growth in the EU in the last two years after a “double-dip” recession.
According to (optimistic) EU forecasts this trend will continue in 2015 and 2016.
Source: AMECO
4
![Page 5: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Increased GDP volume is expected in almost all European countries in 2015.
However, less than 1% growth in five countries.
Only 0.5% in Greece which has lost 25.6% since the crisis.
5
![Page 6: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The economic growth is forecast to further pick up in 2016.
At least 1% GDP increase in every country if the predictions materialise.
6
![Page 7: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The annual production value was just above the pre-crisis level in the EU in 2014.
Spain had lost 5.0%, Italy 8.9% and Greece 25.8%.
7
![Page 8: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Big differences with respect to GDP per capita in Europe.
Four countries below 8 000 euros per year.
The EU average was 27 400 euros in 2014.
8
![Page 9: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
A bit more equality when differences in purchasing power are eliminated.
9
![Page 10: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Industry (NACE B-E) accounted for 18.9% of total value added in 2014.
B= Mining, oil and gasC= ManufacturingD= Energy supplyE = Water supply
10
![Page 11: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The total employment in EU-28 was reduced by 7 million from 2008 to 2013.
It will take another 2-3 years before we again see the level of 2008.
Source: AMECO
11
![Page 12: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Employment still below pre-crisis levels in the EU-28 and EA-19.
Turkey most positive with 25.1% increase since 2007.
12
![Page 13: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Industry (NACE B-E) accounted for 15.6% of employment in the EU-28 last year.
B= Mining, oil and gasC= ManufacturingD= Energy supplyE = Water supply
13
![Page 14: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Big differences between the countries.
The working hours are longest in Poland.
14
![Page 15: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The average number of yearly working hours lower than in 2007 in most countries.
15
![Page 16: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
More than 10% unemployment in EU-28 last year.
Big differences between the countries.
Spain and Greece both over 24%.
16
![Page 17: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Unprecedentedly high levels of unemployed people under 25 years.
Spain and Greece over 50%. Only two countries below 10%.
17
![Page 18: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
A 4.5% growth in productivity in the EU since 2007.
Nine countries above 10%.
Highest increases in new EU member states, Ireland and Spain.
18
![Page 19: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Nominal wage increases have exceeded real labour productivity growth in all countries except Greece, Ireland and Cyprus since 2007.
19
![Page 20: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Real unit labour cost has fallen in twelve countries since 2007, meaning that the wage share of GDP has gone down and the capital share has grown.
20
![Page 21: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Germany had a surplus in its foreign trade of 215 billion euros last year.
France and UK had deficits of 162 million between them.
21
![Page 22: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The Netherlands exported goods and services worth 180 billion euros more than it imported from other EU member states last year.
22
![Page 23: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Germany has the highest trade surplus with countries outside the EU.
23
![Page 24: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Industry
![Page 25: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Manufacturing sector has greatest relative significance in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Germany.
EU average is 15.3%.
25
![Page 26: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
EU average 18.9% when mining, petroleum production and energy supply are included.
Norway on top because of big oil and gas sector.
26
![Page 27: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Industrial production in the EU-28 seems to be levelling out.
Source: Eurostat, Short-term business statistics.
27
![Page 28: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Most positive developments in new EU member states
Stagnation in Germany.
Down in EU-28 and EA-19: 8-9%.
Four countries have lost more than 20%.
28
![Page 29: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Biggest reduction in the mining sector and clothes’ production sector since 2007.
29
![Page 30: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Industrial employment in the EU was 3.9 million lower in 2014 than in 2008.
The level is almost as high as in 2010.
Slight increase in 2014.
30
![Page 31: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Germany has 8 million jobs in industry.
8 countries above one million, also Romania and the Czech Republic.
Poland is now number 3 (no data for Turkey).
31
![Page 32: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Almost all countries are in the red. Industrial employment heavily under pressure.
Germany is the only positive exception.
Reduction in Spain close to 30%.
Average drop in EU and EA higher than 10%.
32
![Page 33: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
All sectors are in the red but MET industries, energy supply and pharmaceuticals have done better than the rest.
33
![Page 34: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Increase in seven countries, but not very dramatic.
34
![Page 35: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
In EU-28 the real labour productivity per hour in the industry has gone slightly up since the onset of the crisis.
Increase in Romania: 67.3%.
35
![Page 36: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Big variations with respect to wages per employed person (total gross wages divided by number of employees).
36
![Page 37: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
The lowest average gross wages in industry are just over 3 euros per hour.
37
![Page 38: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Wage increases highest in the East and South East since the crisis.
38
![Page 39: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Low inflation rates in most countries since the onset of the crisis.
Highest growth in Turkey and Iceland.
EU average only 15.4% in eight years. Even lower in the euro zone.
39
![Page 40: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Exceptionally low inflation in 2014.
Only 0.4% in EA-19.
40
![Page 41: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Growth in most countries, but in Cyprus, the UK and Luxembourg real wages per hour in industry have actually fallen since the crisis began.
41
![Page 42: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Gross wages and salaries have increased faster than production in almost all European countries since 2007.
The average increase in EU-28 was 18.9%.
42
![Page 43: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
The picture is diverse.
Germany, Italy, France and Spain are among the countries with increased RULC in the industry since 2007.
43
![Page 44: Economic Overview October 2015. Production Productivity Employment, working hours Inflation, output prices Wages, unit labour cost Trade balance Outline](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070412/5697bf891a28abf838c89d95/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Industrial companies have increased their producer prices in most countries since 2007 (by more than 20% in nine countries).
44