Economic Outlook Orlando, FL January 5 th, 2010 U.S. Forecast U.S. has endured a Severe Recession The Great Recession is now over So why doesnt it feel like it? The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass Recovery and rehabilitation underway Ugly scar on prominent display and slow to fade Labor market will take a long time to recover U.S. Forecast What will be the shape of the recession and recovery? Alphabet soup: U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped? Sports equipment: Hockey stick? U.S. Economic Outlook 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast 2009 Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate * Consumer Price Index % Chg, Annual Rate Consumer Sentiment Total Consumption % Chg, Annual Rate A look at the Florida housing data: November 2009 Snapshot Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268, $139,000$158, Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167, Gainesville $167,000$160,0004 Punta Gorda $100,000$97,7002 Pensacola $150,500$152,100 Jacksonville 1, $149,200$154,300-3 Tallahassee $162,000$170,000-5 Florida Sales Report November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes Florida Sales Report November 2009 Single-Family, Existing Homes Realtor SalesMedian Sales Price Region or MSA November 2009 November 2008 %Chg November 2009 November 2008 %Chg STATEWIDE 14,0268, $139,000$158, Ocala $87,800$122, Fort Lauderdale $182,100$229, Miami $184,800$224, Orlando 2,2921,27779$137,100$167, Melbourne-Titusville- Palm Bay $105,000$126,700-17 A look at the housing data: January 1994 November 2009 Florida Forecast Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling. Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector Economic recovery in Q Labor market to remain in a funk Short-run demographics hinder recovery Long run population growth rates lower Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona Gainesville 0.86 Jacksonville 1.04 Lakeland 1.62 Miami 0.67 Naples 1.04 Ocala 2.31 Orlando 1.43 Palm Bay 0.58 Pensacola 0.49 Tallahassee 0.86 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida Deltona 1.16 Gainesville 0.68 Jacksonville 1.62 Lakeland 1.07 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.25 Ocala 1.53 Orlando 2.11 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 0.68 Tallahassee 0.59 Tampa Averages; Q Forecast ORLANDO Sector % Average Annual Growth Professional & Business Services 4.8 Manufacturing 2.5 Education-Health Services 2.4 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.9 Leisure 1.9 Other Services 1.4 State & Local Government 1.3 Financial 0.8 Information 0.5 Construction & Mining 0.4 Federal Government -0.6 Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) Thank you