economic outlook · 2021-01-12 · industri emiten industri emiten agri plantation aali 11.025 19...

Economic Outlook

Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020

World Economic Growth Projection(Percent Change)

2,81,7

3,7

-4,4

-5,8

-3,3

5,2

3,9

6

2019

2020

2021

Global Economy Advanced Economies Emerging Market & Developing Economies

World Economic Growth Projection

Source: World Bank , Global Economic Prospects, June 2020

Real GDP(Percent change previous year)

Percentage point differences from January

2020 projections

2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2020f 2021fWorld 3.3 3.0 2.4 -5.2 4.2 -7.7 1.6

Advanced economies 2.5 2.1 1.6 -7.0 3.9 -8.4 2.4United States 2.4 2.9 2.3 -6.1 4.0 -7.9 2.3Euro Area 2.5 1.9 1.2 -9.1 4.5 -10.1 3.2Japan 2.2 0.3 0.7 -6.1 2.5 -6.8 1.9

Emerging market and developing economies 4.5 4.3 3.5 -2.5 4.6 -6.6 0.3East Asia and Pacific 6.5 6.3 5.9 0.5 6.6 -5.2 1.0

China 6.8 6.6 6.1 1.0 6.9 -4.9 1.1Thailand 4.1 4.2 2.4 -5.0 4.1 -7.7 1.3

Europe and Central Asia 4.1 3.3 2.2 -4.7 3.6 -7.3 0.7Russia 1.8 2.5 1.3 -6.0 2.7 -7.6 0.9Turkey 7.5 2.8 0.9 -3.8 5.0 -6.8 1.0

Latin America and the Caribbean 1.9 1.7 0.8 -7.2 2.8 -9.0 0.4Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.1 -8.0 2.2 -10.0 -0.3Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -7.3 2.1 -6.0 0.7

Middle East and North Africa 1.1 0.9 -0.2 -4.2 2.3 -6.6 -0.4Saudi Arabia -0.7 2.4 0.3 -3.8 2.5 -5.7 0.3Iran 3.8 -4.7 -8.2 -5.3 2.1 -5.3 1.1

South Asia 6.5 6.5 4.7 -2.7 2.8 -8.2 -3.1India 7.0 6.1 4.2 -3.2 3.1 -9.0 -3.0Bangladesh 7.3 7.9 8.2 1.6 1.0 -5.6 -6.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.6 2.6 2.2 -2.8 3.1 -5.8 0.0Nigeria 0.8 1.9 2.2 -3.2 1.7 -5.3 -0.4South Africa 1.4 0.8 0.2 -7.1 2.9 -8.0 1.6

Source : OECD, Economic Outlook, September 2020

World Economic Growth Projection(Percent Change)

2,6

1,3

2,9

-4,5

-7,9

-4,1

5 5,15,7

2019

2020

2021

World Euro Area G20

Source : Worldometers, 11 November 2020

Distribution of Cases Covid-19 by Countries

France3,56%

Brazil10,98%

India16,58%

USA20,44%

Russia3,50%

Spain2,79%

Argentina2,43%

UK2,40%

(1.865.538 cases)

(8.684.039 cases)

(10.705.081 cases)

(1.836.960 cases)

(1,463,093 cases)

(1.273.356 cases)

(1.256.725 cases)

(5.749.007 cases)

Outcome of Total Closed Cases Covid-19(Cumulative total deaths & recoveries over cumulative number of closed cases)

Source : Worldometers, 11 November 2020

Source : Haver Analytics; Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker; WEO database; and IMF staff calculations

Lockdowns & Economic Activity

The Impact of Lockdowns & Voluntary Social Distancing on Mobility

(Percent)

Lockdowns & voluntary social distancing have a substantial negative impact on mobility.

Source : IMF

Source : Indeed; and IMF staff calculations

Job Postings, by Sector, around Stay – at-Home Orders

Sources : CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; MarkitEconomics; and IMF staff calculations

Global Activity Indicators

Global trade & industrial production picked up as lockdowns were eased

Sources :Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations

Industrial Production and Retail Sales

Industrial Production-Manufacturing Volume of Retail Sales

Retail sales have generally recovered stronger than industrial production

Sources :IHS Markit; and IMF staff calculations. Note: EA = euro area; PMI = purchasing managers’ indices. Data labels useInternational Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.

Purchasing Managers’ Indices, 2020

Business surveys of purchasing managers suggest a strong but only partial rebound in activity after the trough in the second quarter

Manufacturing PMI: Output Services PMI: Business Activity

Source : Caldara and Iacoviello 2018Note: The Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index reflects automated text-search results of the

electronic archives of 11 national and international newspapers.

Geopolitical Risk IndexGeopolitical tensions seemed to de-escalate during the pandemic but could again flare up

Source : Global Trade Alert

Share of World Imports Affected by Countries’Own Import Restrictions

(Percent)

The bulk of the distortionary tariff and nontariff barriers instituted over the past two years remain in place

Source : Baker, Bloom, and Davis 2016. Note: The Baker Bloom Davis Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty(GEPU)is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 20 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France,Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the UnitedKingdom, and the United States. Mean GEPU from 1997 to 2015 = 100; mean US trade policy uncertainty indexfrom 1985 to 2010 = 100. PPP = purchasing power parity

Policy Uncertainty and Trade TensionsTrade policy uncertainty has declined recently, but trade tensions remain elevated

Sources : Bloomberg Finance L.P.; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; Refinitiv Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.Note: WEO = World Economic Outlook. WEO futures prices are baseline assumptions for each WEO and are derived fromfutures prices. October 2020 WEO prices are based on August 21, 2020, closing. Derived from prices of futures options on August 27, 2020.

Commodity Market Development

Sources : Argus; Bloomberg L.P.; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; Thomson Reuters Datastream; and IMF staff calculations.Note: Dark fill sections represent the percent change in commodity prices for February–April 2020, while light fill sections represent the percent change for April–August 2020. APSP = Average petroleum spot price; AU = Australia; EU = Europe; HH = Henry Hub; LNG = liquefied natural gas; NE = northeast; SA = South Africa; US = United States.

Commodity Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic(Percent)

Update Perekonomian USA

Pertumbuhan PDB (%)

PMI Manufaktur

Source: Trading Economics

Tingkat Pengangguran(%)

Tingkat Inflasi(% MoM)

Update Perekonomian USA

Suku Bunga(%)

Neraca Perdagangan(USD Million)

USD Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)


Update Perekonomian China

Pertumbuhan PDB (%)

PMI Manufaktur




Update Perekonomian China

Suku Bunga(%)


Transaksi Berjalan Berbanding GDP(%)

USD/CNY


Update Perekonomian Japan

Pertumbuhan PDB (%)

PMI Manufaktur




Update Perekonomian Japan

Suku Bunga(%)

Neraca Perdagangan(JPY Million)


USD/JPY


Update Perekonomian Euro Area

Pertumbuhan PDB (%)

PMI Manufaktur




Update Perekonomian Euro Area

Suku Bunga(%)

Neraca Perdagangan(EUR Million)


EUR/USD


Update Perekonomian Indonesia

Pertumbuhan PDB (%)

PMI Manufaktur




Update Perekonomian Indonesia

Suku Bunga(%)



USD/IDR


Asumsi Dasar Ekonomi Makro RAPBN 2021

Source: Kemenkeu

Source: Kemenkeu

RAPBN 2021

Source: Kemenkeu

Postur Anggaran RAPBN 2021

Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020

Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia(Percent Change)

IMF

2020 2021

-1,5% 6,1%

2020 2021

-3,3% 5,3%

2020 2021

-1,6% s.d -2% 3% s.d 4,4%

Tantangan Perekonomian Indonesia 2021

Source: FAC Research

Naiknya KebutuhanLapangan Kerja

Masih Belum Pulihnya Aktivitas

Impor & Ekspor

Gap InfrastrukturMasih Tinggi

KetidakpastianBerakhirnya Covid-19

Angka ProduktivitasTenaga Kerja

Rendah

Defisit Fiskal Naik

Masih Belum Optimalnya

Pemulihan SektorPariwisata

Daya BeliMasyarakat Masih

Belum Pulih


Program BantuanSosial Berlanjut

ReformasiStruktural Berlanjut

Kredit BerpotensiMeningkat

PMA & PMDN Berpotensi Naik

Pengelolaan Fiskalyang Prudent

Harga KomoditasBerpotensi Naik

Suku Bunga RelatifRendah

Peluang Perekonomian Indonesia 2021

Penguatan Rupiah

Equity Outlook

Indonesia -12,22

Malaysia1,04

Philippines -10,95

Singapore-13,8

Thailand -14,03

Vietnam0,82

Australia-1,54

China 9,5

India6,36

Japan9,97

South Korea 15,54

USA4,95

Germany-0,96

Russia 0,75

UK-15,07

Source: IDX, 17 November 2020

Kinerja Indeks Pasar Saham(YTD %)

Kinerja Indeks Sektoral(YTD %)

Source: IDX, 17 November 2020

Agri; -18,75%

Mining; -2,44%

Basic-IND; -15,23%

Misc-IND; -14,97%

Consumer; -11,72%

Property;-32,38%

Infrastructure; -21,53%

Finance; -6,86%

Trade; -14,03%

-35,00% -30,00% -25,00% -20,00% -15,00% -10,00% -5,00% 0,00%

• IHSG selama 2020 sempat membentuk level terendah di 3912 pada 24 Maret 2020 yang disebabkan kekhawatiran

dampak dari pandemi covid-19. Level tersebutmerupakan level terendah IHSG sejak 2012.

• Secara teknikal , target optimistic IHSG 2021 berada di level 7400, didorong suku bunga yang rendah, implementasi

Omnibus Law, net buy foreignberlanjut, pengutan rupiah, danmembaiknya kinerja emiten.

• Risk : naiknya kasus covid-19, vaksin covid-19 lambat disalurkan, danmenguatnyaUSD.

Proyeksi IHSG 2021

Chart 30/11/2020

Source: FAC Research, 17 November 2020

Prospek Industri Sektoral Unggulan 2021

Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen

Agri Plantation-Meningkatnya permintaan CPO seiring pemulihan ekonomi global

- Meningkatnya penyerapan CPO untuk program Biodisel

Mining

Metal & Mineral Mining

-Presiden terpilih USA (Joe Biden) menyiapkan US$2 triliun untuk cleanenergy-Isu global mengarah pada green energy- Terbentuknya Holding Indonesia Battery untuk mendorongpengolahan nikel- Naiknya permintaan emas sebagai safe haven ditengahketidakpastian global

Coal Mining-Membaiknya kondisi ekonomi global pada 2021-Meningkatnya permintaan dari emerging market (China & India)

Basic-IndCement

- Anggaran infrastruktur 2021 naik 47,2%.- Membaiknya permintaan property 2021

ConsumerFood & Beverages

-Berlanjutnya stimulus ekonomi pada 2021 untuk meningkatkan dayabeli

Pharmaceuticals -Anggaran Kesehatan dalam RAPBN 2021 mencapai Rp169,7 triliun-Penguatan rupiah menekan biaya impor bahan baku farmasi-Konsumsi supplement Kesehatan masyarakat meningkat


Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen

Property

Building Contruction

-Anggaran infrastruktur 2021 naik 47,2% menjadi Rp413,8 triliun, sebelumnya Rp281,1 triliun pada 2020-Terbentuknya Sovereign Wealth Fund/SWF untuk kepastian pendanaan proyek infrastruktur

Property & Real Estate

-Membaiknya kondisi ekonomi seiring perkembangan vaksin Covid-19-Disahkannya omnibus law memberikan kepastian dalam berinvestasi

Infrastruc

Toll Road-Mulai berlakunya aktivitas new normal mendorong mobilitas antar daerah-PUPR: target pembangunan 2.724 km ruas tol baru hingga 2024

Telekomunication

-Kebutuhan paket data semakin meningkat (WFH, pembelajaran online, & transaksi digital)-Pembangunan Teknologi Komunikasi & Informasi (ICT) senilai Rp30,5 triliunpada 2021- Pengembangan roadmap teknologi 5G di Indonesia

Finance Bank

-Penyaluran kredit 2021 diperkirakan mencapai 5%-6%, sedangkan proyeksi2020 mencapai 2%-3%.- Kebijakan relaksasi restrukturisasi kredit diperpanjang hingga Maret 2022- Insentif pelonggaran GWM Rupiah sebesar 50 bp bagi kredit UMKM & Ekspor-Impor, serta sektor priotitas lainnya hingga 30 Juni 2021- Perluasan QRIS untuk pemulihan ekonomi & keuangan digital

Prospek Industri Sektoral Unggulan 2021


Saham Pilihan 2021


(24 November 2020)

Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X)

Target PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten

Agri PlantationAALI 11.025 19 27,32 1,14 1,12 20.000

LSIP 1.140 19 42,28 1,14 0,91 2.500

Mining

Metal & Mineral Mining

TINS 1.120 16 -24,52 1,91 1,69 2.000

ANTM 1.235 16 26,63 1,91 1,57 1.800

MDKA 1.830 16 36,66 1,91 5,37 2.500

INCO 4.620 16 30,13 1,91 1,52 6.000

Coal Mining

ADRO 1.300 0,25 19,49 1,08 0,78 2.050

PTBA 2.280 0,25 10,17 1,08 1,66 3.400

ITMG 10.950 0,25 16 1,08 0,97 24.000

Basic-Ind CementSMGR 11.725 24 33,83 1,23 2,07 16.000

WSBP 224 24 -3,88 1,23 1,02 430

Consumer

Food & Beverages

ULTJ 1.660 18 17,28 2,77 3,14 2.400

MYOR 2.480 18 26,72 2,77 5,25 3.200

INDF 7.250 18 11,20 2,77 1,57 9.500

ICBP 10.125 18 17,48 2,77 4,11 12.500

Pharmaceuticals

KLBF 1.485 23 25,75 4,52 4,08 1.900

KAEF 3.300 23 366,66 4,52 2,69 4.500

Saham Pilihan 2021


(24 November 2020)

Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X) Target

PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten

Property

Building Contruction

ADHI 1.075 25 186,62 1,04 0,69 1.850

WSKT 1.085 25 -4,19 1,04 1,10 2.200

PTPP 1.260 25 222,20 1,04 0,71 2.400

WIKA 1.505 25 201,72 1,04 1 2.400

Property & Real Estate

PWON 530 2,62 31,87 1,43 1,78 700

CTRA 915 2,62 54,86 1,43 1,15 1.200

BSDE 1.100 2,62 37,20 1,43 0,78 1.600

Infrastruc

Toll Road JSMR 4.520 15 156,12 0,89 1,74 6.000

TelecommunicationTLKM 3.350 -2,62 14,92 1,09 3,26 4.400

Telecommunication TowerTOWR 1.045 48 20,95 2,17 5,51 1.350

TBIG 1.460 48 33,19 2,17 5,52 2.050

Saham Pilihan 2021


(24 November 2020)

Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp)PER (X) PBV (X) Target

PriceIndustri Emiten Industri Emiten

Finance Bank

BBKP 282 38 30,35 2,29 0,35 450

BNGA 875 38 8,85 2,29 0,55 1.200

PNBN 995 38 7,77 2,29 0,58 1.500

BDMN 2.930 38 14,54 2,29 0,66 4.750

BBRI 4.200 38 27,52 2,29 2,70 5.500

BBNI 5.950 38 19,27 2,29 1,01 9.300

BMRI 6.425 38 16,03 2,29 1,62 8.200

BBCA 32.825 38 30,30 2,29 4,52 40.000

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economic outlook · 2021-01-12 · industri emiten industri emiten agri plantation aali 11.025 19...

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