economic outlook: 2007 ends in recessionsfc.virginia.gov/pdf/retreat/2007 retreat -...

© Copyright 2007 Camilli Economics, LLC. All rights reserved.

Presentation Prepared for:The Virginia Senate

Blacksburg, VirginiaNovember 15th, 2007

Economic Outlook: 2007 Ends in Recession

Presented by:Kathleen CamilliCamilli Economics, LLC

[email protected]


Mission Statement

The mission of Camilli Economics, LLC is to deliver insightful economic analysis and to teach people about the workings of the capitalist system and financial markets so that they may live prosperously and fulfilled.


ECRI Weekly Leading Index1992=100

0500959085807570Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute /Haver Analytics 11/02/07

150

125

100

75

50

150

125

100

75

50


FCM10 - FCM3M

05009590858011/02/07

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1


Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate %

FCM10 - FCM3M

05009590858011/02/07

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5


Recession

• Are we in one yet? Most likely

• Camilli put recession probability at 30% on 1/1/07, 80% on 8/10/07, 90% on 9/10/07, 95% on 10/8/07, 99% on 11/7/07.

• In the recent past, the US economy has remained incredibly resilient in the face of shocks

• Each and every economic expansion and recession are unique because the economy is never exactly the same at any two points in time.


Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Composite% Change - Year to Year 1941-43=10

University of Michigan: Consumer ExpectationsNSA, Q1-66=100

050095908580757065Sources: WSJ, UMICH /Haver 11/02/07

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

120

100

80

60

40


All Employees: Total NonfarmDifference - Period to Period SA, Thous

Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr +SA, %

0500959085Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 11/02/07

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

9

8

7

6

5

4

3


All Employees: Temporary Help ServicesDifference - Period to Period SA, Thous


0500959085Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 11/02/07

80

40

0

-40

-80

-120

9

8

7

6

5

4

3


Personal Income% Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$


0500959085Sources: BEA, BLS /Haver 11/02/07

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0


Households, Nonprofit Organizations: Total AssetsBil.$

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Change - Annual Rate SAAR, Bil.Chn.2000$

0500959085Sources: FRB, BEA /Haver 11/07/07

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5

-5.0





80000

60000

40000

20000

0

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

-15.0


Households: Assets: Total Owner-occupied Real EstateBil.$



24000

20000

16000

12000

8000

4000

0

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

-15.0


Households: Total Financial AssetsBillions of Dollars



45000

37500

30000

22500

15000

7500

0

22.5

15.0

7.5

0.0

-7.5

-15.0


Home Builders: Housing Market Index {Composite}SA, All Good = 100

OFHEO House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-80=100

050095908580Sources: NAHB, OFHEO /Haver 11/02/07

80

60

40

20

0

16

12

8

4

0


OFHEO House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year NSA, Q1-80=100


0500959085807570Sources: OFHEO, BEA /Haver 11/02/07

16

12

8

4

0

10

5

0

-5

-10


Personal Income% Change - Year to Year SAAR, Bil.$


050095908580757065Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics 11/02/07

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

15

10

5

0

-5

-10


Homeownership Rate: United StatesSA, %


05009590858075Sources: CENSUS, BEA /Haver 11/02/07

70

68

66

64

62

10

5

0

-5

-10




05009590858075Sources: UMICH, BEA /Haver 11/02/07

120

100

80

60

40

10

5

0

-5

-10




05009590858075Sources: UMICH, BLS /Haver 11/02/07

120

100

80

60

40

12

10

8

6

4

2




05009590858075Sources: UMICH, FRB /Haver 11/02/07

120

100

80

60

40

80000

60000

40000

20000

0


Thank You

Presented by:Kathleen CamilliCamilli Economics, LLC

[email protected]

economic outlook: 2007 ends in recessionsfc.virginia.gov/pdf/retreat/2007 retreat -...

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