economic outlook2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 federal funds target rate...

Economic Outlook

Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist

April 17, 2019

Economic Outlook 2

U.S. Review

Economic Outlook

Fiscal Policy

The short-term boost from tax reform appears to be fading and smaller than expected refunds will weigh on spending this spring. Government spending has ramped up, however, and opportunity zones hold great promise.

Monetary Policy

The Fed has once again become data driven as opposed to target driven. The Fed’s more patient stance is well suited to the heightened risks from slower global economic growth and lack of visibility on U.S. growth.

Trade Policy

The Trump Administration’s confrontational negotiating tactics have increased uncertainty but may also bring about needed changes from China. Trade relations are likely to remain contentious until a deal is reached.

Northern Virginia

After a strong Q2 and Q3, economic growth moderated toward the tail end of Q4 and slowed further at the start of 2019. First quarter GDP may be surprisingly soft but the economy appears to be on pace to grow 2.5% in 2019.

Northern Virginia has seen strong growth in high-paying jobs. Single-family construction has remained subdued but the D.C. area has seen significant apartment deliveries as interest in living closer to the city has risen.

Economic Outlook 33

Economic Growth

Real GDP growth moderated in Q4. Consumer spending was solid but ended the quarter on a soft note. Business fixed investment strengthened even though factory orders weakened,

suggesting capex will slow further. Residential investment remains a drag on growth.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Business Fixed InvestmentReal GDP

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q4 @ 2.2%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 3.0%

Forecast

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Real Business Fixed InvestmentBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q4 @ 5.4%

Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q4 @ 7.0%

Forecast

3

Economic Outlook 44

Employment Situation: Broadening Growth

February’s small gain in nonfarm jobs likely reflects some payback from stronger gains in prior months. Hiring appears set to slow, however, as businesses are growing more cautious. Wage gains have rebounded but remain modest relative to prior periods when the labor market was this tight. Labor demand remains fairly strong and is a good leading indicator of job growth.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, National Federation of Independent Business and Wells Fargo Securities

Job OpeningsNonfarm Employment

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

U.S. Nonfarm Employment ChangeChange in Employment, In Thousands

Monthly Change: Mar @ 196K5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

NFIB Openings vs. JOLTs Private OpeningsSmall Businesses with a Job Hard to Fill, Job Opening Rate; 3-MMA

Private Job Opening Rate: Feb @ 5.0% (Left Axis)

Hard to Fill Jobs: Mar @ 36.8% (Right Axis)

4

Economic Outlook 5

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted

FOMC Central Tendency for Longer Run

Unemployment Rate: Mar @ 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate: Mar @ 7.3%

Employment Situation: Tightening Labor Market

The labor market has tightened substantially, with the

unemployment rate at 3.8%.

While the criteria for determining the unemployment rate have not changed, growth

in the Gig economy, particularly LinkedIn and the proliferation of online job search platforms,

have likely changed the way workers engage in the labor

market. As result, the economy can maintain relatively low

inflation even with historically low unemployment.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 6

Inflation

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—the core PCE

deflator—finally reached its 2% target before dipping again.

With growth cooling off, pipeline inflationary pressures

appear to be lessening, and inflation expectations have

fallen in recent weeks.


-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

PCE Deflator vs. Core PCE DeflatorYear-over-Year Percent Change

PCE Deflator: Jan @ 1.4%

"Core" PCE Deflator: Jan @ 1.8%

FOMC's 2.0% Inflation Target

Economic Outlook 7

Consumer Confidence

Despite a recent dip, consumer confidence is incredibly strong.

Consumers are much more upbeat about current conditions

than future conditions.

The Conference Board’s survey closely tracks labor market conditions, which are the

strongest they have been in decades.

Source: Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Consumer Confidence IndexConference Board

Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Mar @ -2.3%

Confidence: Mar @ 124.1

12-Month Moving Average: Mar @ 129.8

Economic Outlook 8

Interest Rates

The minutes from the Fed’s March FOMC meeting suggest that the Fed will hold interest

rates steady until it sees evidence that domestic demand

is reaccelerating, inflation is heating up and global economic

conditions stabilize.

We now believe the Fed will hold rates steady through the

remainder of this year and expect the next Fed move to be a

rate cut, most likely after the 2020 presidential election.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Federal Funds Target RateUpper Bound, Percent

Federal Funds: Q1 @ 2.50%

Forecast

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities

Economic Outlook 9

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Thousands

Housing StartsMillions of Units

Multifamily Starts

Multifamily Forecast

Single-Family Starts

Single-Family Forecast

Forecast

Housing Market

Affordability concerns will continue to keep a low ceiling on

home sales and new home construction.

Overall homebuilding is still lagging household formation and there are too few homes available in markets where

population and employment are growing rapidly. Apartment

construction is pivoting toward more affordable units.


Economic Outlook 1010

NAHB Homebuilder Confidence

The NAHB index has stabilized, indicating a rebound in single-family starts heading into spring.

Source: Freddie Mac, NAHB and Wells Fargo Securities

Expected SalesNAHB vs Rates

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index vs. Mortgage RateDiffusion Index, Rate

NAHB Housing Market Index: Mar @ 62 (Left Axis)

30-Year Mortgage Rate: Mar @ 4.3% (Right Axis)

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

14 15 16 17 18 19

NAHB Expected Single-Family Home Sales vs. SF StartsNAHB Housing Market Index

In the Next 6 Months: Mar @ 71.0 (Left Axis)

Single-Family Housing Starts: Feb @ 805K (Right Axis)

10


Home Prices

The recovery in home prices varies considerably throughout the country. Prices have risen fastest in rapidly growing tech-driven markets, mostly in the West. Several large East Coast markets have slowed, reflecting less foreign buying and possibly the impact of tax reform.

Source: S&P Case-Shiller and Wells Fargo Securities

RegionalHome Prices

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

S&P CoreLogic CS Home Price IndexIndex, January 2000=100

National HPI: Jan @ 204.7

Composite-20 City: Jan @ 212.4

Composite-10 City: Jan @ 225.9

10.5%7.5%

5.1%

5.1%

5.1%

5.0%

5.0%

4.9%

4.8%

4.6%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.3%

3.1%

3.0%

2.9%

2.4%

1.8%

1.3%

3.2%

3.6%

4.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Las VegasPhoenix

MinneapolisTampa

CharlotteDenverDetroitAtlantaMiami

BostonSeattleDallas

ClevelandPortland

Washington, D.C.New York City

Los AngelesChicago

San FranciscoSan Diego

C-10C-20

National HPI

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home PricesYear-over-Year Percent Change, NSA

January 2019

11

Economic Outlook 12

GDP Cyclicality

Consumer spending on durable goods, housing, capital spending

and nonresidential structures collectively account for 20% of

GDP but over 100% of the decline in GDP during

recessions.

We have seen less of a boom in the most cyclical parts of the economy during this cycle,

which may push a correction further out and ultimately make

that correction less severe.-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Cyclical Components vs. Rest of GDPYear-over-Year Change of 4-Qtr Moving Average of Real GDP

Cyclical Components

Remainder of GDP

Cyclical defined as residential investment, structures, equipment and consumer spending on durables


Economic Outlook 13

2007 to Present

1960

1969

1973

1980 1981

1990

2001

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Nonresidential Structures InvestmentPercent Change Since Start of Each Recession

Years Since Each Recession Began

CRE Investment

Overall building has remained relatively subdued this cycle.

Much of the activity has been concentrated in several large

markets.


Economic Outlook 14

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Thousands

Apartment Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units

Apartment Net Completions: Q4 @ 63.5K (Right Axis)Apartment Net Absorption: Q4 @ 43.7K (Right Axis)Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q4 @ 6.0% (Left Axis)

Apartment

Apartment development has been fairly strong the past few years, with a disproportionate

share of activity devoted to luxury and lifestyle units.

Development is now shifting to more affordable projects in

suburban areas and in lower costs parts of the country.

Source: CoStar, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities

Regional Commentary

Economic Outlook

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Real GDP by State (Q3-2018)

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KY

KS

INIL

ID

IA

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ

AR

AL

0.5

0.4

2.3

5.8

1.3

2.7

4.4

3.4

2.7

1.8

2.5

1.2

1.8

3.7

1.5

1.6

2.2

3.5

0.8

2.2

2.5

1.5

1.7

2.6

3.2

1.8

2.4

2.5

3.1

2.1

2.1

3.0

2.7

1.5

1.3

3.42.2

4.0

1.5

2.6

4.1

-0.3

1.2

3.03.5

3.5

2.8

3.0

AK-0.6

HI

1.2

DC1.1


32

2.5% - 3.4 %

1.5% - 2.4%

More than 3.5%

Less than 0.5%

0.5% - 1.4%

United States = 2.6%

Economic Outlook 17

Boston

Atlanta

Miami

San Francisco

Dallas

Houston

Philadelphia

Charlotte

Seattle

Chicago

San Diego

Tampa

St. Louis

Baltimore

New York

San Jose

Las Vegas

Washington, D.C.

Richmond

Detroit

Phoenix

Orlando

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5%

3-M

onth

Annualized P

erc

ent

Change

Year-over-Year Percent Change

U.S. Employment Growth by MSA3-Month Moving Averages, February 2019

Percent of Total EmployeesLess than 4%4% to 6%More than 6%

Expanding

Decelerating

Employment Growth

Employment growth is strongest

in the South and West.


Economic Outlook 18

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Jacksonville, FL

Los Angeles, CA

Riverside, CA

Raleigh, NC

Denver, CO

Nashville, TN

Tampa, FL

Washington, D.C.

Charlotte, NC

Orlando, FL

Austin, TX

Phoenix, AZ

Atlanta, GA

Dallas, TX

Houston, TX

Single-Family Housing Permits by MSAYear to Date, Total Number of Permits in Thousands

December 2018

Single-Family Permits

Single-family permits have been strongest in the South.



Virginia Employment

Employment growth has been weighted more towards relatively high-paying fields such as professional & business services. The unemployment rate has fallen to 2.9%.


Employment by IndustryEmployment Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Nonfarm Employment GrowthYear-over-Year Pct. Change, 3-Month Moving Averages

United States: Feb @ 1.8%

Virginia: Feb @ 0.8%

February 2019

-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Nat. Res. & Mining

Information

Construction

Other Services

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Leisure and Hospitality

Educ. & Health Services

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Government

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Total Nonfarm

Virginia Employment Growth By IndustryYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA

Number of

Employees

Less

More

19


Virginia Demographics

Population growth has slowed.


Population GrowthPermits

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Thousands

Thousands

Virginia Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Single-Family: Feb @ 16,956

Single-Family, 12-MMA: Feb @ 20,887

Multifamily, 12-MMA: Feb @ 10,352

Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 42,406

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Population GrowthYear-over-Year Percent Change

Virginia: 2018 @ 0.6%

United States: 2018 @ 0.6%

20


Washington, D.C. MSA Employment

Job growth has slowed a bit amid a tight labor market.


Employment by IndustryEmployment Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19

Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment

QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Sep @ 1.3%Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Feb @ 0.9%Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jan @ 0.8%

3-Month Moving Averages

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Manufacturing

Information

Nat. Res. & Construction

Financial Activities

Other Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Educ. & Health Services

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Government

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Total Nonfarm

Washington, D.C. MSA Employment Growth By Industry

Number of

Employees

Less

More

Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA

February 2019

21


Washington, D.C. MSA Demographics

Apartment construction has been strong. Population growth has moderated.


Population GrowthPermits

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Thousands

Thousands

Washington, D.C. MSA Housing Permits

Single-Family: Feb @ 11,508Single-Family, 12-MMA: Feb @ 13,286Multifamily, 12-MMA: Feb @ 12,418Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 27,944

Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Washington, D.C. MSA Population GrowthIn Thousands

22

Economic Outlook 23

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Thousands

Washington, DC Apartment Supply & DemandPercent, Thousands of Units

Apartment Net Absorption: Q4 @ 1,497.0 (Right Axis)

Apartment Completions: Q4 @ 2,141.0 (Right Axis)

Apartment Vacancy: Q4 @ 6.1% (Left Axis)

Washington, D.C. Apartment

The D.C. area has seen significant apartment deliveries.


Economic Outlook

Apartment Rent Growth

New York

Los Angeles

Dallas-Fort Worth

Washington D.C.

Chicago

Atlanta

Phoenix

PhiladephiaOrange County

MinneapolisDetroit

Boston

Baltimore

Tampa

San Antonio

Columbus

East Bay

Charlotte

Orlando

San Francisco

Las Vegas

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Quart

erl

y A

nnualized P

erc

ent Change

Year-over-Year Percent Change

Apartment Effective Rent Growth: Q4 2018Yr/Yr vs. Q/Q Annualized, Bubble Size Reflects Stock

Expanding

Decelerating


24

Economic Outlook 25

U.S. Economic Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecastq 1 2 01 9

2019

2017 2018 2019 2020

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Real Gross Domestic Product 1 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 4.2 3.4 2.2 1.8 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.9 2.5 2.1

Personal Consumption 1.8 2.9 2.2 3.9 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.5 0.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.1

Business Fixed Investment 9.6 7.3 3.4 4.8 11.5 8.7 2.5 5.4 3.8 3.4 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.8 5.3 6.9 4.2 3.6

Equipment 9.1 9.7 9.8 9.9 8.5 4.6 3.4 6.6 1.3 2.1 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.0 6.1 7.4 3.3 2.7

Intellectual Property Products 8.0 6.6 1.7 0.7 14.1 10.5 5.6 10.7 7.3 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.5 4.6 7.5 7.0 4.5

Structures 12.8 3.8 -5.7 1.3 13.9 14.5 -3.4 -3.9 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.6 5.0 1.8 4.2

Residential Construction 11.1 -5.5 -0.5 11.1 -3.4 -1.3 -3.6 -4.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 3.3 -0.3 -0.3 1.5

Government Purchases -0.8 0.0 -1.0 2.4 1.5 2.5 2.6 -0.4 2.7 3.8 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.1 1.5 2.1 1.0

Net Exports 2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.0 1.2 -2.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0

Inventories 2 -0.8 0.2 1.0 -0.9 0.3 -1.2 2.3 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.1

Nonfarm Payroll Change 3 173 190 136 218 228 243 189 233 180 170 160 160 150 140 100 90 179 223 168 120

Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6

Consumer Price Index 4 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.3

Quarter-End Interest Rates 5

Federal Funds Target Rate 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 1.13 1.96 2.50 2.44

Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.20 3.90 3.81 3.94 4.44 4.57 4.63 4.64 4.28 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.35 4.30 4.25 4.15 3.99 4.54 4.26 4.26

2 Year Note 1.27 1.38 1.47 1.89 2.27 2.52 2.81 2.48 2.27 2.45 2.45 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.05 1.40 2.53 2.39 2.24

10 Year Note 2.40 2.31 2.33 2.40 2.74 2.85 3.05 2.69 2.41 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.55 2.33 2.91 2.59 2.66

Forecast as of: April 10, 20191 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Percentage Point Contribution to GDP 3 Average Monthly Change4 Year-over-Year Percentage Change 5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages

2019 20202017 2018

ForecastActualActual Forecast

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities

Appendix

Economic Outlook 27

Economic Outlook Group Publications

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economicsemail

A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Date Title Authors

U.S. MacroApril-05 Fallout from a Potential Border Closure Bryson

April-03 Seasonal Distortions Linger in Q1 Nonfarm Payrolls Data Iqbal & Seery

April-02 U.S. Recession? How Do We Count the Ways? Bryson & House

April-01 Recession Update: Should We Worry? Iqbal

March-28 Federal Spending to Boost GDP Growth Through the Summer Bryson & Pugliese

March-19 Shifting Burdens of Household Debt Quinlan & Seery

March-15 What 737-MAX Groundings Mean for Durable Goods Quinlan, House & Seery

U.S. RegionalMarch-22 Utah Continues to Grow for All the Right Reasons Vitner & Dougherty

March-22 California Sees Modest Job Gains in February Vitner & Dougherty

March-22 Texas Payrolls Rise in February Vitner & Dougherty

March-22 North Carolina Sees Hiring Moderate in February Vitner & Dougherty

March-22 Florida Payrolls Post Huge Gain in February Vitner & Dougherty

Global EconomyApril-01 Be Careful of U.K. Data Boomerang Nelson

March-27 Mexico Economic Review and Outlook Pugliese & McKenna

March-25 Which Economies Can Catch a Cold When the Eurozone Sneezes? Bryson

March-22 European Recession Revisited Nelson

March-07 ECB: When Doves Fly Nelson & Bennenbroek

Interest Rates/Credit Market

March-26 The Animal Spirits Index Bounces Back to Start 2019 Iqbal

March-26 Inverted Yield Cruve: Is It Different This Time? Bryson

March-25 QE Redux: Have We Been Here Before? Bryson, House & Nelson

March-20 FOMC Thinks It Will Be on Hold Throughout 2019 Bryson

March-13 Could the Fed Go Negative? Bryson, House & Nelson

Real Estate & Housing

March-20 Q4 CRE Chartbook: Construction Outlook Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

March-18 Housing Chartbook: March 2019 Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

February-27 Manufactured Housing Outlook: 2019 Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

January-16 What's Ahead for Housing in 2019? Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

December-07 Q3 CRE Chartbook: Outlook Vitner, Dougherty & Honnold

Recent Special Commentary

Economic Outlook

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group

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Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …[email protected]

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist [email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]

Nick Bennenbroek, Macro Strategist [email protected]

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician [email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Senior Economist [email protected]

Sarah House, Senior Economist [email protected]

Charlie Dougherty, Economist [email protected]

Erik Nelson, Macro Strategist [email protected]

Michael Pugliese, Economist [email protected]

Brendan McKenna, Macro Strategist [email protected]

Economists & Macro Strategists Economic Analysts

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For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ("WFSIL"). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated bythe Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“the Act”), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL, anauthorized person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Directive 2014/65/EU (“MiFID2”). The FCA rules made under the Financial Services andMarkets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and shouldnot be relied upon by, retail clients.

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Dawne Howes, Administrative Assistant [email protected]

Shannon Seery, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Matthew Honnold, Economic Analyst [email protected]

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