economic outlook 2000-01 2000 efficient electro-technology conference september 7, 2000
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Economic Outlook 2000-01 2000 Efficient Electro-Technology Conference September 7, 2000. Economic Outlook 2000-01. 2000 Year to Date Hawai‘i economic engine firing on all cylinders. Alan Greenspan—carrier pilot or miracle worker? 2000-01 Economic Outlook - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Economic Outlook 2000-01
2000 Efficient Electro-Technology ConferenceSeptember 7, 2000
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Economic Outlook 2000-01
• 2000 Year to Date * Hawai‘i economic engine firing on all cylinders.
* Alan Greenspan—carrier pilot or miracle worker?
• 2000-01 Economic Outlook* US economy still leads world wide expansion.
* Hawaii’s economic strength causes wage and price inflation.
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead
Visitor Industry Strong State Wide
1998 1999 2000ytdEastbound Visitors -10.9 -5.9 0.3Westbound Visitors 4.1 6.1 7.2Total Visitors -2.0 1.6 4.7Room Rates 2.9 1.3 8.2Occupancy Rate 1.6 0.8 5.6
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Honolulu County Visitor Statistics
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
115
110
105
100
95
90
90
85
80
75
70
OCCUPANCY RATE (right scale) ROOM RATE
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Maui County Visitor Statistics
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
85
80
75
70
65
60
OCCUPANCY RATE (right scale) ROOM RATE
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Hawai‘i County Visitor Statistics
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
180
160
140
120
100
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
OCCUPANCY RATE (right scale) ROOM RATE
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Kauai County Visitor Statistics
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
160
140
120
100
80
60
80
75
70
65
60
OCCUPANCY RATE (right scale) ROOM RATE
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead
Construction Sector is HOT* Real contracting expands-- fastest rate in 10 years* Single family home and condo resales strong* Average home prices rise on Oahu.* Permits growth signals continued strength
1998 1999 2000ytdReal Contracting 2.5 -1.9 17.0Total Permiting -10.6 33.0 14.8SF Avg Price (Oahu) -2.9 1.9 5.6SF Home Resales 26.0 15.0 12.2Inventory (months) 10.4 7.4 5.9
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Honolulu County Construction Permits
200019991998
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
TOTAL ADDITION&ALTERATION COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Maui County Construction Permits
200019991998
150
100
50
0
-50
TOTAL ADDITION&ALTERATION COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Hawai‘i County Construction Permits
200019991998
150
100
50
0
-50
TOTAL ADDITION&ALTERATION COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Kauai County Construction Permits
200019991998
100
50
0
-50
-100
TOTAL ADDITION&ALTERATION COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Oahu Inventory Remaining
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead
Job Growth Strongest in 10 years* Contracting and Oahu lead strong job growth
* Employment growth continues to exceed job growth
* Unemployment rate near US rate lower than CA
1998 1999 2000ytdNon Ag Jobs -0.1 0.5 2.0Employment 0.2 0.7 3.2Unemployment Rate 6.2 5.6 4.5
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Total County Job Growth
200019991998
4
3
2
1
0
-1
OAHU MAUI HAWAII KAUAI
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Honolulu County Job Growth Returns
200019991998
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
NON-AG CONTRACTING SERVICE RETAIL HOTEL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Maui County: Contracting Jobs Surge
200019991998
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
NON-AG CONTRACTING SERVICE RETAIL HOTEL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Hawai‘i County: Contracting Booming
200019991998
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
NON-AG CONTRACTING SERVICE RETAIL HOTEL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Kauai County: Growth in Retail & Hotels
200019991998
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
NON-AG CONTRACTING SERVICE RETAIL HOTEL
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
County Unemployment Rates Decline
200019991998
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
OAHU MAUI HAWAII KAUAI
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead
Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base
* Retail & Hotel tax base grow with visitor industry
* Wage income growing at over 6%
* GE tax base expanding more rapidly than income
1998 1999 2000ytdRetail -1.2 0.3 9.1Hotel Room -0.1 -0.6 12.2Contracting 2.7 -1.8 17.0Total GE Tax Base -1.2 0.8 10.3
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date: Hawai‘i Economy Roars Ahead
Income Growth and Prices * Nominal income grew by more than 4% in Q1 while
wages grew by almost 9%.
* Inflation returns as expected
* Withholding Taxes increase more than 4%
1998 1999 2000ytdCPI Inflation -.3 1.1 1.8Real Income 2.7 2.2 2.6Witholding Taxes NA NA 4.5
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down?
• US Energizer Bunny expansion continues to set records 112 months and still going strong
• Necessary ingredients for soft landing:* No mistakes by Fed!
* Continued productivity growth
* Slowing consumer demand (aka less than 20% annual return on Nasdaq!)
* Some easing of labor markets
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down?
Soft landing pluses* CPI inflation only 3.5% through July.* Productivity up 5.1% over past year—biggest annual
gain in 17 years.* July housing starts declined to 1.51 million annual rate
lowest level since Nov. 1997.* US unemployment rate inched up in August to 4.1%* NAPM index declined in August—factory orders
posted largest decline ever in July, falling 7.5%.* Index of leading economic indicators down for third
straight month in July. * Sales of existing homes fell 9.8% in July (higher
mortgage rates).
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000 Year to Date:Is the Landing Gear Down?
Soft landing minuses* CPI inflation 3.5% through July. * Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.3% in 2nd Qtr.* Industrial production is up 5.8% over last year through
June.* New orders for durable goods up 9.9% over last year.* Sales of new homes jumped 15% in July, the largest
increase in more than 7 years.
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000-01 OutlookUS still Leads World Economic Growth
20012000199919981997
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
World US Japan
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000-01 NASDAQ Growth Forecast
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000-01 Outlook:All Sectors Contribute to Growth
• Visitor growth expected near 5 %• Real contracting will expand at near 15 % rate• Job and employment growth continue at 2-3%• Real income to grow over 3%• Inflation will accelerate to 2.3% rate and beyond
with rising rents.
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Visitor Arrivals Growth to Remain Strong
2001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Eastbound Westbound Total
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Labor Market Firm—Shortages?
2001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Jobs Employment
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Real Income Growth Strengthens
2001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Real Income Real Gross State Product
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
Honolulu Inflation Catches US Rate
2001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Honolulu US
UHERO Quarterly Economic Outlook http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO
2000-01 Outlook
1998 1999 2000 2001Personal Income (Current $) 1.8 3.5 5.5 5.8Real Personal Income 2.1 2.4 3.3 3.0Real Gross State Product 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.1
Consumer Price Inflation -0.3 1.1 2.2 2.8
Visitor Arrivals -2 1.6 4.9 4.0East Bound -10.9 -5.9 0.9 2.4West Bound 4.1 6.1 7.0 4.8
Real Contracting 2.7 -1.9 15.0 10.0
Non Ag Jobs -0.1 0.5 2.0 2.2Employment 0.2 0.7 2.7 2.1