“ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO

DISASTER (ISSUES AND

STRATEGIES)”

A PROJECT

in the subject of Strategic Management

SUBMITTED TO

UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI

FOR SEMESTER –II OF

MASTER OF COMMERCE

BY

(MOHD MOHSIN KHAN)

Roll No. (14)

Specialization: Business Management

UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF

Dr. SANGEETA PAWAR

YEAR-2014– 15

DECLARATION BY THE STUDENT

I, Shri Khan Mohd. Mohsin, student of M. Com. Part-I Roll Number (14), at the Department of

Commerce, University of Mumbai do hereby declare that the project titled, “ Economic losses due to

disaster (losses and strategies) ” submitted by me in the subject of Strategic Management for

Semester –II during the academic year 2014-15, is based on actual work carried out by me under the

guidance and supervision of “Dr Sangeeta Pawar.”

I further state that this work is original and not submitted anywhere else for any other examination.

Date 07/10/2010Error: Reference source not found

Mumbai

Signature of Student

EVALUATION CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the undersigned have assessed and evaluated the project on “ ECONOMIC

LOSSES DUE TO DISASTER(ISSUES AND STRATEGIES)” in the subject of Strategic

Management submitted by Shri Mohd.Mohsin Khan , student of M. Com. Part-I at the Department of

Commerce, University of Mumbai for Semester –II during the academic year 2014-15.

This project is original to the best of our knowledge and has been accepted for Internal Assessment.

Internal Exaimer External Exaimer Director

Dr V. Deolankar

University of Mumbai

Department of Commerce

Internal Assessment: Subject: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Name of the Student Class Branch RollNumber.

First name : MOHD.MOHSIN

Father’s Name: MOHD.MOIN

Surname :KHAN

M. COM.

PART I

BUSINESS

MANAGEMENT 14

Topic for the Project: “ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISATER

(ISSUES AND STRATEGIES)”

Marks Awarded Signature

DOCUMENTATIONInternal Examiner (Out of 10 Marks)External Examiner (Out of 10 Marks) Presentation (Out of 10 Marks)

Viva and Interaction (Out of 10 Marks)

TOTAL MARKS (Out of 40)

SR.

NO’

PARTICULAR PAGE

NO.

CHAPTER-1

1.1 Introduction Meaning of Disaster 1-4

1.2 Natural Disaster and Nature 5-14

1.3 Types of natural disasters 15-21

CHAPTER-2

2.1 Economic losses due to disaster 22-24

2.2 Types of Economic Costs of Disaster: 25-26

2.3 Economic losses of Disaster 27-28

2.4 India Disaster Context Analysis 29

2.5 Susceptibility of India to Natural Disasters: 30

CHAPTER-3

3.1 Phases of disaster management process 31-33

3.2 Relief and Rehabilitation Measures 33-37

CHAPTER- 4

4.1 SUMMARY OF STUDY 38

4.2 CONCLUSION 39

4.3 BIBLIOGRAPHY 40

1

ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTER-(ISSUE AND STRATAGIES)

CHAPTER-1

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Meaning of Disaster

Natural disasters, which are often and intense, result in considerable injuries and deaths,

disrupting normal life as well as the process of development. Increasing and various other

socio-economic factors have forced people to live in vulnerable areas. disasters are

perceived to be on the increase in their magnitude, frequency, and impact, Its geo-

climatic conditions make the Indian region vulnerable to disasters. Floods and high winds

account for around 60 percent of all disasters. About 54 percent of the sub-continent's

landmass is while about4 crore hectares, that is about 1 2 percent of the country is to

periodic floods. The total expenditure on relief and reconstruction in Gujarat alone after

the severe earthquake of January 200 1 has been about Rs. 1,500 crore in year, just to

quote an example. New disaster threats have also developed such the tsunami disaster of

December 2004, which was an disaster.

In this Unit, we will discuss the meaning and nature of natural disasters. In addition, their

effects will also be highlighted. Keeping in view the variety of natural disasters that occur

in India, we will explain the types with special reference to their regional and

distributions. Lastly, we will deal with efforts to mitigate natural disasters.

India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disasters on account of its unique geo-

climatic conditions. Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and Landslides have been a

recurrent phenomena. About 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various

intensities; over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone

to cyclones and 68% of the area is susceptible to drought.

In the decade 1990-2000, an average of about 4344 people lost their lives and about 30

million people were affected by disasters every year. The loss in terms of private,

community and public assets has been astronomical. At the global level, there has been

considerable concern over natural disasters. Even as substantial scientific and material

progress is made, the loss of lives and property due to disasters has not decreased. In fact,

the human toll and economic losses have mounted. It was in this background that the

2

United Nations General Assembly, in 1989, declared the decade 1990-2000 as the

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction with the objective to reduce loss of

lives and property and restrict socio-economic damage through concerted international

action, specially in developing countries.

The super cyclone in Orissa in October, 1999 and the Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat in

January, 2001 underscored the need to adopt a multi dimensional endeavour involving

diverse scientific, engineering, financial and social processes; the need to adopt multi

disciplinary and multi sectoral approach and incorporation of risk reduction in the

developmental plans and strategies.

Over the past couple of years, the Government of India have brought about a paradigm

shift in the approach to disaster management. The new approach proceeds from the

conviction that development cannot be sustainable unless disaster mitigation is built into

the development process. Another corner stone of the approach is that mitigation has to

be multi-disciplinary spanning across all sectors of development. The new policy also

emanates from the belief that investments in mitigation are much more cost effective than

expenditure on relief and rehabilitation.

Disaster management occupies an important place in this country’s policy

framework as it is the poor and the under-privileged who are worst affected on

account of calamities/disasters.

The steps being taken by the Government emanate from the approach outlined above.

The approach has been translated into a National Disaster Framework [a roadmap]

covering institutional mechanisms, disaster prevention strategy, early warning system,

disaster mitigation, preparedness and response and human resource development. The

expected inputs, areas of intervention and agencies to be involved at the National, State

and district levels have been identified and listed in the roadmap. This roadmap has been

shared with all the State Governments and Union Territory Administrations. Ministries

and Departments of Government of India, and the State Governments/UT

Administrations have been advised to develop their respective roadmaps taking the

national roadmap as a broad guideline. There is, therefore, now a common strategy

underpinning the action being taken by all the participating organizations/

stakeholders

3

India has been traditionally vulnerable to natural disasters on account of its unique geo-

climatic conditions. Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and Landslides have been a

recurrent phenomena. About 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various

intensities; over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone

to cyclones and 68% of the area is susceptible to drought. In the decade 1990-2000, an

average of about 4344 people lost their lives and about 30 million people were affected

by disasters every year. The loss in terms of private, community and public assets has

been astronomical.

At the global level, there has been considerable concern over natural disasters. Even

as substantial scientific and material progress is made, the loss of lives and property due

to disasters has not decreased. In fact, the human toll and economic losses have mounted.

It was in this background that the United Nations General Assembly, in 1989, declared

the decade 1990-2000 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction with

the objective to reduce loss of lives and property and restrict socio-economic damage

through concerted international action, especially in developing countries.

The super cyclone in Orissa in October, 1999 and the Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat in

January, 2001 underscored the need to adopt a multi dimensional endeavor involving

diverse scientific, engineering, financial and social processes; the need to adopt multi

disciplinary and multi sectoral approach and incorporation of risk reduction in the

developmental plans and strategies.

Natural disasters, which are often and intense, result in considerable injuries and deaths,

disrupting normal life as well as the processing the development.

Increasing and various other socio-economic factors have forced people to live in

vulnerable areas. Disasters are perceived to be on the increase in their magnitude,

frequency, and impact, Its geo-climatic conditions make the Indian region vulnerable to

disasters. Floods and high winds account for around 60 percent of all disasters. About 54

percent of the sub-continent's landmass is while about4 crore hectares, that is about 12

percent of the country is to periodic floods. The total expenditure on relief and

reconstruction in Gujarat alone after the severe earthquake of January 2001 has been

about Rs.1,500 crore in year, just to quote an example. New disaster threats have also

developed such the tsunami disaster of December 2004, which was an disaster.

4

In this Unit, we will discuss the meaning and nature of natural disasters. In addition, their

effects will also be highlighted. Keeping in view the variety of natural disasters that occur

in India, we will explain the types with special reference to their regional and

distributions. Lastly, we will deal with efforts to mitigate natural disasters.

A natural disaster could occur due to an immediate extreme event’s or it could be the

result of a long duration process, which disrupts normal human life in its established

social, traditional and economic system to a considerable extent. The define it as the

occurrence of a sudden or major misfortune which disrupts the basic fabric and

functioning of a society (or community).” Today, the term ‘Disaster’ is commonly used to

denote any extreme event, be it natural or man-made, which brings about loss of life,

property, infrastructure, essential service and means of livelihood to an extent that it

becomes difficult to cope with the situation due to it being beyond the normal capacity of

the affected communities to deal with unaided. A hazardous situation turns into a disaster

event when the affected community (or district or state or country) needs immediate and

prolonged assistance and support to deal with the situation and its after effects.

A natural disaster is a major adverse event resulting from natural processes of, or

effecting, the Earth; examples include floods, severe weather, volcanic eruptions,

earthquakes, and other geologic processes. A natural disaster can cause loss of life or

property damage, and typically leaves some economic damage in its wake, the severity of

which depends on the affected population's resilience, or ability to recover. An adverse

event will not rise to the level of a disaster if it occurs in an area without vulnerable

population. In a vulnerable area, however, such as San Francisco, an earthquake can have

disastrous consequences and leave lasting damage, requiring years to repair.

5

1.2 NATURAL DISASTER: AND NATURE

A natural disaster could occur due to an immediate extreme event or it could be the result

of a long duration process, which disrupts normal human life in its established social,

traditional and economic system to a considerable extent. The define it as the occurrence

of a sudden or major misfortune which disrupts the basic fabric and functioning of a

society (or community)." Today, the term 'Disaster' is commonly used to denote any

extreme event, be it natural or man-made, which brings about loss of life, property,

infrastructure, essential services and means of livelihood to an extent that it becomes

difficult to cope with the situation due to it being beyond the normal capacity of the

affected communities to deal with unaided. A hazardous situation turns into a disaster

event when the affected community (or district or state or country) needs immediate and

prolonged assistance and support to deal with the situation and its after effects.

An Overview of the Issues

The theoretically correct measure of economic impacts from a natural disaster would be

the change in welfare that occurred as a result of the event. Welfare can be evaluated ex

post, as the compensation required to avoid loss, or ex ante, which accounts for

uncertainty (Rose 2012). Although thinking in terms of hypothetical welfare measures

can be instructive, a complete welfare analysis is usually quite difficult empirically and

would require making a number of assumptions and simplifications in analysis. If society

were risk-neutral, ex ante welfare could be evaluated with the expected economic loss

(Rose 2012). Scholars interested in empirical estimates (as opposed to modelling results,

which can be useful in estimating welfare calculations) have attempted to measure

observable disaster damages and follow-on economic impacts as a rough approximation

of the net economic costs of a disaster.

Various lists and typologies of disaster impacts have been created. Most scholars of

disasters have generally classified disaster impacts into direct and indirect impacts. Direct

impacts have been described as the physical destruction from a disaster, and indirect

impacts (some authors prefer the term higher-order impacts) are considered the

consequences of that destruction (National Research Council 1999). In this way, direct

damages refer to damages to structures, contents, and infrastructure that occur as a direct

6

result of experiencing the hazard. Direct impacts also include mortality and injury caused

directly by the hazard. Indirect damages refer to lost economic activity, such as loss of

potential production, increased costs of production, loss in expected income, and other

welfare losses, which occur as a result of the initial damage. Direct and indirect damages

include nonmarket impacts, such as declines in the quality of life, environmental

degradation, or lost recreational amenities, for example. In theory, it should be possible to

sum up all direct and indirect losses to generate a measure of the total economic costs of a

disaster. In practice, this is quite difficult, for several reasons discussed in this section.

The approach of dividing disaster impacts into direct and indirect damages and summing

them appears to be a theoretically straightforward accounting method for estimating the

total economic impact of natural disasters; however, the difficulty in practice has led

much of the literature to focus instead on the impact of disasters on macroeconomic

variables. This approach is another lens through which to view disasters and is clearly not

additive with direct and indirect damages (ECLAC 2003). The assumption is that direct

and indirect effects would be reflected in macroeconomic accounts if the disaster was

significant. The focus on macroeconomic variables is probably due in part to the fact that

good data are available on them, but the ease of data availability does not imply that

macroeconomic variables are the best measure of disaster impacts, as I discuss further

below.

Direct and Indirect Impacts from a Disaster

Indirect losses include business interruption costs to those businesses that did not sustain

direct damage but may not be able to operate because, for example, their supplier was

damaged, their workers evacuated, or they lost power. It also includes the multiplier

effects from reductions in demand or supply (more on these below). In addition to

causing business interruption, loss of infrastructure or other lifelines (e.g., power, sewage,

or water) can lead to utility loss to households in terms of a diminished quality of life or

could cause both households and businesses to adopt costly measures (such as increased

commuting time as a result of damaged roads or the extra costs of running a private

generator when the electricity is out).

7

Direct Damages

The economic cost that usually first comes to mind when thinking about natural disasters

is damage to buildings and contents. Though seemingly straightforward to measure,

getting the precise economic costs of this impact is not theoretically trivial. Consider a

house that is completely destroyed. The economic loss could be measured as either the

market value of the house right before the disaster hit or the replacement cost to rebuild

it. The most appropriate measure is the market value at the time of disaster impact. The

replacement cost could be higher or lower for several reasons. Post-disaster, some

materials may be in short supply and more expensive substitutes used or higher prices

charged, for example, or labour may be in short supply and thus wages higher, driving the

cost of rebuilding above what it would have been before the disaster (Olsen and Porter

2008). This is often referred to as demand surge. Although these higher costs are a loss to

the homeowner, they are a gain to the suppliers and builders; therefore, from the point of

view of society as a whole, they are :- just transfers. On the flip side, if business

interruption is severe and more labourers are looking for temporary work, rebuilding

costs could be lower. This again would be a savings to the homeowner that, from the

perspective of society as a whole, would offset the loss to the worker.

This picture is complicated by government disaster aid payments. For the individual, aid

will lessen the economic impact of a disaster. From the point of view of society, the

government aid is a transfer from one taxpayer to another, as stated above. The dead eight

loss of taxation is positive, however, and the marginal opportunity cost of a dollar of

government spending is in most cases likely to be greater than $1; therefore, one might

want to include this cost of government spending. However, it is not necessarily the case

that disaster aid will require new taxation because funds may instead be diverted from

another use. In such a case, it is possible that this diversion could lessen the dead eight

loss of taxation if the aid was less distortionary than the funds in their non disaster use. If

the funds were from increased government borrowing, this cost of federal borrowing

would need to be included.

The homeowner could also receive insurance payouts if he or she had disaster insurance.

This would again lessen the negative wealth shock to the homeowner. Assuming risk-

based pricing of insurance and well-diversified companies, claims payouts should not be

8

considered a cost of a disaster. They are often used as a proxy for economic costs,

however, as they should theoretically be closely correlated with the lost value of the

homes and structures—at least in areas with high take-up rates of insurance. Further,

insurance companies usually keep extremely good records and so are an excellent data

source.

In addition to the cost of the lost home, other direct losses to the homeowner include the

time lost to the rebuilding effort, emotional trauma or stress, and loss of nonmarket items

of value, such as baby photographs or family keepsakes. These losses are rarely included

in disaster damage estimates.

Destruction to the buildings, contents, inventory, and capital of firms can be similarly

analyzed. For destroyed capital, depreciation must also be considered, and the correct

measure of economic loss is the depreciated value of the lost asset. If production is lost

from the delay in replacing damaged capital, then the lost production from delay should

also be counted as an economic loss. The literature examining possible positive impacts

of disasters is premised on the notion that replaced capital could be more productive than

the capital destroyed if there has been technological change (discussed in Section 5

below). This productivity bump could not be so high as to make the firm better off, or

else they would have already upgraded the capital. Still, the productivity increase will

offset some of the economic loss. If the firm receives disaster aid such that the upgrade is,

in a sense, free to the firm, then it could, in theory, be better off post-disaster if the

productivity bump is great enough. Again, though, from the point of view of society, the

aid is simply a transfer.

Infrastructure damage is another category of direct loss from a natural disaster. Again, the

depreciated value is the correct measure of economic loss. Delays in repair and rebuilding

can trigger indirect costs, discussed next, through an interruption in use or service.

Especially in the developing world, loss of life and injury from disasters can be large, and

these are direct costs of a disaster. An enormous debate centres on how to value loss of

life and injury, and I will not rehash that here, except to note that a value-of-a-statistical

life (VSL) estimate based on disaster risk explicitly would be the best measure. To my

knowledge, very few, if any, VSL estimates have looked explicitly at natural disaster risk,

although one comparative stated preference study finds that willingness to pay (WTP) to

9

reduce mortality risk is greater for terrorism than for natural disasters and that reducing

the mortality risk from natural disasters is valued about the same as that from traffic

accidents, even though the latter is a much higher risk (Viscusi 2009). Injury and illness

can be measured in quality-adjusted life-years or similar measures.

Direct damages can also include environmental degradation. For such nonmarket losses,

an estimate of society’s total WTP to have avoided the loss ex ante is a measure of the

economic loss. Again, a large literature addresses nonmarket valuation techniques that

can be applied to obtain such estimates, which will not be discussed here (see, for

example, Freeman 2003).

Finally, emergency response and debris clean-up could also be considered direct costs of

a disaster. This would include the opportunity cost of people’s time spent hauling away

debris, for example, or the costs of evacuation. Many of these costs are borne by

governments, and if the interest is in total economic impacts to society as a whole, care

must be taken in correctly estimating these costs. Issues that must be considered include

whether new taxation was required, if government indebtedness increased, and/or what

the funds would have been spent on in the absence of a disaster.

Although this paper is focused exclusively on economic impacts, previous work has

examined broader impacts, including demographic shifts post-disaster. For example, it

was found that after Hurricane Andrew, low-income groups moved into areas that had

been damaged (potentially because these areas were cheaper), the proportion of middle-

income groups in damaged areas declined, and the wealthy remained (perhaps because

insurance and self-protection were more affordable for this group; (Smith et al. 2006).

Such changes could have welfare effects.

10

Indirect Damages

Disasters can be viewed as a negative capital shock to a region. This has follow-on

economic consequences in addition to the value of the lost assets. First, economic losses

are not exclusive to firms or households that sustain direct physical damage. If electricity

or water is lost, for instance, it can cause business interruption to even firms that are not

themselves directly damaged. This is a widely recognized disaster cost. Similarly, the loss

of such services can lead to a decline in the quality of life for households, and thus a

utility loss, and could also lead to the need for costly measures to compensate, although

this is rarely discussed in the literature. Such compensating actions could involve longer

travel times due to a road outage or the purchase of battery-powered lighting in response

to a loss of electricity, for instance. These are indirect damages to include in estimates of

total costs.

Attention in the literature has focused on possible multiplier effects post-disaster.

Consumer demand post-disaster may be higher for some sectors—such as construction,

particularly if aid or insurance is funneled to rebuilding—and lower for others as

consumers forgo some expenditures to use their funds for rebuilding. These types of

expenditure changes could have economic multiplier effects within the community

(positive or negative). A similar story can be told for business interruption. This could

decrease demand for inputs and reduce outputs, having negative ripple effects in the

supply chain; although here, aid and insurance could mute these impacts if such funds

allow for a faster resumption of normal business activity.

From the perspective of the whole economy, however, multiplier effects may well be

zero, with positive and negative impacts canceling out (National Research Council 1999).

For instance, if a firm fails to produce an output, its customer may simply purchase the

good elsewhere. This is a loss for the disaster-impacted firm but a gain for a competitor,

and thus a wash from the point of view of the whole economy. As another example,

tourists may avoid a hurricane-stricken coast, but instead of not travelling, they may just

frequent another area. Again, this may be a wash from the point of view of the entire

economy, but clearly the distributional impacts could be quite large and could have

significant consequences for individuals, firms, or communities.

11

If a government does make changes to taxation or resource allocation post-disaster, this

could have indirect economic effects. For hard-hit countries, particularly small or poor

countries, this is a distinct possibility and would need to be evaluated. Countries can also

receive international assistance (which, again, would be a transfer from a global

perspective). Case study evidence suggests that donors do not necessarily provide

additional aid after a disaster, but simply reallocate aid budgets (Benson and Clay 2004).

Mortality or illness could also occur, as a result not of the hazard but of the initial

damage. For instance, if water becomes contaminated as a result of the shutdown of a

treatment plant and this leads to illness, it would be an indirect cost of the disaster. After

hurricane Katrina, an increase in mortality rates was observed because the storm

destroyed much of the health infrastructure of the city (Stephens 2007). These would be

deaths classified as an indirect cost.

Finally, disasters could cause people to alter their risk perceptions. This could then induce

behavioural responses and a reallocation of resources. These could have economic

consequences, such as workers requiring a risk premium post-disaster (on this point in the

context of terrorism, see: Rose 2012), but are not further considered in this review.

Similarly, utility functions may be state dependent and may change after a disaster, such

that ex ante valuations are not the same as ex post valuations.1 A complete welfare

assessment would need to consider these possibilities. Notably, positive utility gains

could occur via public aid post-disaster if people feel good about helping those in need

and reassured that if they are victims, aid will be forthcoming. Likewise, utility losses

could be associated with any increases in fear (or other negative emotions), which Adler

(2004) argues should be measured and included in regulatory cost–benefit analysis when

relevant.

Economists exhibit some hesitancy regarding estimations of higher-order effects, and the

complications discussed above hint at why. Rose (2004) notes the following concerns:

indirect effects are hard to verify, modelling them can be difficult, the size of the impacts

can vary substantially depending on the resiliency of the economy and pace of recovery,

and the modelling of such effects could be manipulated for political purposes (e.g.,

inflating the multiplier). Still, when calculated carefully, they are a true cost of the

12

disaster and should be included in any complete accounting. Most estimates of their

magnitude have been done through modelling rather than empirical analysis.

Macroeconomic Approaches

The majority of economic studies, instead of attempting to estimate direct or indirect

costs, evaluate the impact of natural disasters on macroeconomic indicators, primarily

gross domestic product (GDP). It is thus worth saying a word about how these estimates

of disaster impacts relate to estimates of direct and indirect economic effects.

It is possible that the direct and indirect effects of a disaster could be large enough to

have macroeconomic effects, including impacts on economic growth, balance of

payments, fiscal revenues, levels of indebtedness, and investment rates (ECLAC 2003). If

damages are severe, output could decline. Output could also increase from post-disaster

reconstruction. It is unclear, on net, how these effects would balance out. Damages to

firms could alter imports and exports. Government spending for emergency response, if

high enough, could change indebtedness. Tax revenue could be impacted. If serious price

increases result from the disaster, this could fuel inflation. Foreign direct investment

could fall if companies see too great a risk or too much damage.

Some of these impacts are essentially indirect economic impacts that should be counted

in total economic impact estimates. More often, however, macroeconomic variables are

used as a proxy for the direct and indirect impacts just discussed. For example,

government spending is often used as a measure of the damages from a disaster but need

not be directly related to economic losses. Similarly, GDP is often used to capture total

economic impacts. It is worth stressing, however, that GDP is simply a measure of

economic activity, not of wealth or welfare. The usual arguments on this point extend to

the case of natural disasters. The literature on the GDP impacts of disasters is reported

here, but with this strong note of caution that it is a poor proxy for either total economic

costs or welfare impacts of a disaster event.

Measurement Problems

The thorny theoretical problems involved in estimating the economic consequences of

disasters are coupled with extreme data limitations that make actual estimates far from

13

what would be the hypothetical - true disaster costs. Many scholars have stressed the need

for reliable, comprehensive, systematically collected disaster loss data (e.g., Thomas

2001). Good data on disaster losses are needed for a range of purposes, including cost–

benefit analysis of mitigation measures, government preparedness planning, calibration of

loss models, and risk analysis for insurers and other entities. Even in highly developed

countries with generally good record-keeping, comprehensive disaster loss data are

difficult to come by. The United States does not keep systematic records in one location

of losses associated with natural hazards. Many experts have called for such a database to

be developed and maintained by the federal government (e.g., National Research Council

1999), but thus far it has not occurred.

In general, the data available on disaster impacts are on those things that are easily

observable ex post. For instance, depreciated replacement value is the best estimate of

damage to structures and assets, but is not available in most data sets (Mileti 1999);

replacement cost is more likely to be observed. Because public expenditures are fairly

easy to observe and often are already measured in some form in most countries, they are

frequently used as a proxy for losses; but, as already mentioned, public expenditures on

reconstruction may not match the magnitude of losses to capital (Cavallo and Noy 2010).

Most disaster data sets do not include indirect losses or damages to nonmarket goods and

services; therefore, most disaster loss data probably underestimate the full economic

impact of disasters (Mileti 1999; Mitchell and Thomas 2001).

Another difficulty with disaster data is that many high-magnitude events are complex,

with multiple interrelated perils (Kronetal. 2012). For instance, strong hurricanes bring

with them high winds, torrential rain, and storm surge; these could further trigger

landslides. Severe storms could include damage from wind, hail, flooding, lightening, and

tornadoes. Earthquakes can trigger tsunamis or fires. This makes classifying disasters for

comparison across events difficult.

Finally, some countries have much better record-keeping than others. Some countries

may not have institutions that are tasked with damage estimation, and in some places

post-disaster assessments may be difficult. Further, developing countries may have an

incentive to exaggerate damages to gain international aid and, regardless, obtaining good

damage estimates in developing countries can be a challenge because insurance

14

penetration is low, book keeping is often poor, and much economic activity occurs in

informal sectors (Toya and Skidmore 2007). Very little is known empirically about

disaster impacts on informal sectors of the economy.

Thus, all disaster numbers should be interpreted with some degree of caution. In addition,

the nature of the database can influence the conclusions drawn about disaster losses, as

noted by Gall et al. (2009). For instance, different databases include different items in the

estimate of damages (e.g., just direct damages, or both direct and indirect), which can

cause differences in rankings of events. In their comparison of disaster damage estimates

in the United States across three different databases, Gall et al. (2009) find that, although

all three databases agree that hurricanes and tropical storms are the most damaging

hazard in the United States, they differ on which hazard is ranked second—earthquakes,

severe weather, or floods.

Finally, EM-DAT data are compiled from multiple sources and are only as good as those

sources. Sources include the United Nations, governmental and nongovernmental

organizations, insurance companies, research institutes, and the press. The sources are

ranked according to their trustworthiness in providing accurate and complete data.

Collecting disaster data is a difficult process, and CRED should be commended on the

work done to create and maintain this database. It is the best source for consistent, multi-

country natural disaster data available. That said, we would be more confident in our

estimates of the economic impacts of natural disasters if multiple data sources all found

the same results. With so much of the literature relying on this one data source, any

problems with the data will propagate through all analyses.

15

1.3 TYPES OF NATURAL DISASTERS

As already mentioned in section 1.1 above, India's unique geo-climatic position makes

the country particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. a vast peninsula of sub-

continental size and is surrounded by sea on three sides and has the Himalayan range on

the fourth side, which has some of the tallest mountains of the world. That is why India

has to face large variety of disastrous events of geological, oceanic or climatic origin.

Thus we can list the natural disasters expected in India on the basis of their origin as

follows:

Wind, and Water related natural disasters

Cyclone

Flood

Drought

Climate related disasters

Waves and cold waves

Global Warming

Sea level rise

Ozone depletion

Mountain area disasters Geological disasters

Landslides

Snow avalanches

Earthquakes

Volcanic eruptions

Tsunami

Wind, and Water related natural disasters

Cyclone

Tropical cyclones are characterized by destructive winds and copious rainfall, which

causes flooding. In such storms, winds can exceed speeds of over 120 kph. Due to such

strong wind forcing, sea-water accumulates ahead of cyclone as it moves towards the

coast. When a cyclone hits the coast, the accumulated enormous mass of sea- water

16

strikes the coast as a giant sea wave called s surge which can have heights of the order of

tens of meters. The storm surge with torrential rains and very strong winds brings

widespread devastation to coastlines and islands lying in paths. Cyclones pose a major

threat to life and property. These storms are called cyclones in India. In other parts of the

world they have different nomenclature, like hurricanes in America and in Japan.

Tropical cyclones are weather systems with strong winds that circulate anti-clockwise

around a low-pressure area in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern

hemisphere. They form in certain tropical areas over the open seas where the sea surface

temperature is around The necessary atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the

formation of cyclone are a sea temperature, high relative humidity, atmospheric

instability and a location around at least 4-5 degree latitude away from the equator.

In India, there are two cyclone seasons viz., Pre-monsoon (April and May) and Post-

monsoon (October and November). More cyclones form in the Bay of than in the Arabian

Sea. As cyclones move generally westwards or north-westwards, the east coast of India is

more vulnerable to than the west coast.

Flood

Flood denotes inundation or accumulation of water. In other words, it results from an

imbalance between inflow and outflow of Floods can occur through heavy rains, dam

failures, rapid snow melts, river blockages or even bursting of water mains. Floods result

in damage, deaths and injuries, create in drinking water supply and food shortages. In

India, 40 million hectare area is vulnerable to floods, and about 8 hectare area is affected

by floods annually. Thus India is highly prone to floods especially in the monsoon and

cyclone seasons. The flood disaster of July 2005 is fresh in memory.

There are three types of floods flash floods, river floods, and coastal floods. Flash floods

are generally events of hill areas where sudden very heavy rain over a limited area can

cause strong flow. Flash floods also occur when a temporary blockage in hilly areas

impounds water, which when released suddenly creates the havoc. River floods occur due

to heavy inflow of water from heavy rainfall, snowmelt, and short intense storms.

Hooding in rivers is also caused by inadequate capacity within the banks of river to

contain high flows, river bank erosion and silting of riverbeds, synchronization of flood

17

in the main and tributary rivers, flow retardation due to tidal and backwater effects.

Coastal floods are caused due to or heavy rainfall cyclones and the storm surge associated

with a cyclone. The situation could be aggravated due to high tide. Tidal flooding is

saline from the of sea-water into rivers at high tides. Flood to surge is also saline and

therefore, more corrosive.

Drought

Drought is a temporary reduction in water availability on an area for unusually long

period. Depending on the resulting water scarcity, a drought has disastrous and long-term

impacts, which may last for months and in some cases years.

It is onset phenomenon Three types of droughts are recognised:

Meteorological drought: When the monthly or seasonal rainfall over an area is

appreciably below normal.

Hydrological drought: The water scarcity over results in reduction in the available water

in surface water bodies and the water table also recedes. Needless to state, prolonged

meteorological drought leads to hydrological drought.

Agricultural drought: When the water scarcity results in partial or total loss of crops and

affects agricultural activity adversely. Drought is caused by adverse water balance, or

scarcity of water to satisfy the normal needs of agriculture, livestock or human

population. It can also occur in areas normally enjoy adequate rainfall levels, Drought

may be caused due to excessive evapo-transpiration losses, high temperature and low soil

holding capacity.

Climate related disasters

Wave and Cold Wave

As the name implies, these are spells of extreme surface air temperatures over a region

for rather prolonged periods of several days or few weeks. When the maximum

temperature in the day over an area over shoots in the hot weather months (March to

June), it leads to heat wave. Similarly, when the temperature falls appreciably below

normal in the winter months, it is called cold wave. Both the phenomena are extreme

18

weather events and lead to very considerable discomfort, illness, epidemics and deaths

due to exposure.

Global Warming

Increase in greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and others) retards

cooling of the earth's surface at nights and this tends to increase the minimum

temperature (the morning temperature) almost all over the globe resulting in the

phenomenon called Global Warming. Even though the increase in greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere is due mostly to human activities, it is advisable to study Global as a

natural it involves the atmosphere in general and is global in nature and its impacts are

global even if the human activity is local or regional. (The same argument applies in

treating Sea level rise Ozone depletion under the category of natural disasters). It be

noted that there would not only be less cooling of the earth's surface at night but the

atmosphere will also get warmer due to trapping of the heat on account of green-house

effect. All these aspects will be discussed in detail in Unit 18 later.

Sea level rise

Any increase in the average temperature of the earth is bound to have two impacts.

Firstly, the glaciers, ice caps on the poles and mountain peaks will witness increased

melting and consequent increase in the waters in rivers and oceans. Secondly, the large

body of water in the seas will expand in volume due to increased temperature. Both these

factors will create arise in the level of water in the seas and oceans, which eventually

poses serious problems to the inhabitants of coastal and island areas and affects their

socio-economic wellbeing. In fact, sea-level rise threatens the very existence of numerous

islands and coastal zones.

Ozone Depletion

Ozone, which is an isotope of oxygen, is created in the lower stratosphere where under

conditions of I ow atmospheric pressure, the ultraviolet radiation in the sun's rays breaks

the oxygen molecule into atomic oxygen, which combines with oxygen molecule to form

ozone. The ultraviolet radiation up the ozone molecule into a normal oxygen molecule

19

and atomic oxygen. Thus the process goes on and creates a layer of ozone in the upper

atmosphere with maximum density of ozone 20 km or so above the earth. This process

also consumes a large of the harmful ultraviolet radiation in the sun's rays and thus saves

human, animal, and plant life on the earth from the effects of ultraviolet radiation.

However, certain chemicals, in use on earth, send chlorine up in the upper atmosphere

where under certain conditions of low temperature and darkness, chlorine consumes

atomic oxygen in a reaction with result that ozone is reduced thus lowering the ozone

density in so-called ozone layer in the upper atmosphere. This process of ozone depletion

ensures that less amount of the ultraviolet radiation in the sun's rays gets consumed in the

ozone and more ultraviolet radiation reaches the earth's surface to create harm.

The entire process of ozone depletion its effects are more complicated than the simple

description above. Moreover, significant success has been made in combating ozone

depletion through international cooperation. All these aspects will be discussed in detail

in Unit 20, which is entirely devoted to ozone depletion.

Mountain area disasters Geological disasters

This is a broad classification, although one can suggest a different categorization. For

example, tsunami can be considered to be of geological origin but it has been put under

the water related category in the above classification because the disastrous effect is

caused by the giant sea waves. Each of these phenomena are explained and discussed

in detail in the subsequent Units of this course. However, at this introductory stage, brief

descriptions are given here beginning with disasters of geological origin.

Landslides

Landslides are defined as the mass movement of rock debris or mud down a slope and

have come to include a broad range of motions, whereby falling, sliding and flowing

under the influence of gravity dislodges earth material. They also occur as secondary

effects of heavy rainstorms, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. In almost all cases,

landslides occur as a consequence of changes, either sudden or gradual, in the

20

composition and structure of rocks or vegetation on a slope, which loosens the soil or

rocks which slide on a trigger as heavy rains or vibrations in the earth's surface.

Landslide can be caused by poor ground conditions, geomorphic phenomena, heavy

rainfall, earthquakes or undercutting of the base of slopes by rivers and quite often due to

heavy spells of rainfall with impeded drainage. They are common in mountainous areas,

such as Himalayas and the Western Ghats where they frequently destroy the

infrastructure, agriculture, and dwellings, resulting in considerable loss of life and

property besides blocking vital roads in the inaccessible areas.

Snow Avalanches

An avalanche is defined as the event in which a large mass of snow, ice, rock or other

material swiftly down a side or over a precipice and crushes everything in its path. An

avalanche when the large of snow, ice and rock overcomes the frictional resistance of the

sloping surface, either due to rain, melting of ice base or vibrations of any kind.

It will be seen that landslides and avalanches are events of mountain regions and are

rather similar in nature and impact. The basic difference is that landslide involves

movement of rock, soil and whereas avalanche comprises, snow, ice and rock. Landslides

can occur in smaller hills or rocky slopes but avalanches occur in high mountains with

snow in abundance.

Earthquake

A sudden geological event below the surface of the earth results in generation of waves

that travel far and wide and cause vertical and horizontal vibrations. The consequential

motion causes destruction. The severity of the impact depends on the magnitude of the

earthquake, which in turn depends on the amount of energy released at the spot where the

geological event took place below the surface of the earth. occur suddenly, and thus there

is no dependable technique for prediction of earthquakes as yet. India is highly vulnerable

to earthquakes and has been visited by some very severe earthquakes.

Volcanic eruptions

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Volcano can be described as a vent or chimney, to the earth's surface, from a reservoir of

molten rock, called magma, deep in the crust of the earth. is not that volcanoes are always

emitting lava, steam or smoke. Many volcanoes have been "sleeping" for decades or even

longer. In the context of forecasting of volcanic eruptions, it can be stated that short-term

forecasts hours or days may be made through volcano techniques. In the Indian territory,

there are only two volcanoes viz., Nicobar and Barren Island- both in the Andaman s.

Both are 'sleeping volcanoes' although the Island volcano emits some heat and smoke

occasionally and goes to sleep again. In any case, there is no evidence of any serious by

these volcanoes in the known past. Thus, India is not much affected due to volcanoes.

However, other countries like Italy, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia and worst affected.

Tsunami

Tsunami is a Japanese for sea waves generated by undersea earthquakes. These waves

may originate from undersea or coastal seismic activity, or volcanic eruption. Whatever

may be the seawater is displaced into a violent and sudden motion ultimately breaking

over land even at very long with great destructive power. It is to be noted that while the

coasts are hit by very high waves of water, there is hardly any appreciable wave on the

high seas. Therefore, ships on the high seas are not affected.

In most cases, tsunami could be the after-effect of undersea earthquake due to which the

abrupt vertical movement of ocean floor generates waves, which travel at high speed in

the ocean. As they approach land, their speed decreases while their height increases. It

can be highly destructive to coastal areas as was witnessed during the catastrophic

tsunami event in December 2004.

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CHAPTER 2

2.1 ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTER

In May 2013, the United Nations cautioned that economic losses linked to natural disaster

are out of control, soaring past US $100 billion annually for three consecutive years. The

warning came as the UN released the third edition of its Global Assessment Report

Disaster Risk Reduction in May 2013. The U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

warned that economic losses from floods, earthquakes and drought will continue to

escalate unless business firms take action to reduce their exposure to disaster risks.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched the report saying the review of disaster

losses in 56 countries clearly demonstrates that “ economic losses from disaster are out of

control” and can only be reduced in partnership with the private sector.

“Our starling finding is that direct losses from flood, earthquakes and drought have been

underestimated by at least 50 percent,” Ban said “So far this century, direct losses from

disaster are in the range of US$ 2.5 trillion (US$2500billion). This is unacceptable when

we have the knowledge to reduce the losses and benefit from the gains.”

For too many years, the secretary-general said, financial markets have placed greater

value on short-term returns than on sustainability and resilience, which in the long-term

are far more attractive and can save million of dollars.

“In the years ahead, trillion of dollars will be invested in hazard-exposed regions,” Ban

said, “If that money fails to account for natural hazards and vulnerabilities, risk will

increase. Where such spending does address underlying risk factors, risk will go down.

The report said recent major disaster such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the 2011 Floods

in Thailand and the 2011 Japanese earthquakes and Tsunami put a spotlight on the

growing impact of disasters on the private sector.

The report says increasing globalization, the search for lower costs and higher

productivity, and quick delivery “are driving business into hazard-prone locations with

little or no consideration of the consequences on global supply chains.

For example, it said Toyota lost US$ 1.2 billion in product revenue from the Japanese

earthquakes in 2011 due to the parts shortages that caused 150,000 fewer cars to be

23

manufactured in the United States and a 70 percent reduction in production in India and a

50 percent reduction in China.

On the other hand, Orion which owns and operates own of the largest electricity

distribution networks in New Zealand, invested US $6 million in seismic protection that

saved the company US$65 million in the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes, the report said. And

preventive investments by fishermen in Mexico saved each individual entrepreneur US$

35,000 during Hurricane Wilma in 2005, the report said.

A global risk model developed by the U.N. Office demonstrates that average losses just

from earthquakes and cyclonic wind damage are expected to be $180 billion per year

throughout this century ---- and this figure does’t include damage floods landslides, fires

and storms, the report said.

Small and Medium enterprises are particularly at risk. The 2013 report, which surveyed

1,300 small and medium-sized businesses in six disaster-prone cities in the Americas,

found three-quarter have suffered disruptions related to damage or destroy power,

telecommunication and water utilities, illustrating the interdependence between the

private and public sector when it come to disaster risk management.

Yet only a minority of those surveyed - about 14 percent of companies with fewer than

100 employees - had even a basic approach crisis management from of business

continuity planning, the report says.

The report argues stronger disaster risk management reduces uncertainty and strengthens

confidence, opens the door to cost saving and provides an avenue for value creation.

Business that have invested the most in risk management may financially out perform

their peers, the report says.

Governments reported significant progress in developing more effective disaster response

and preparedness strategies and are investing more to address risk, according to the

report. However, government are still falling short of anticipating risks in public and

private and partnership. For example, the number of export-oriented Special Economic

Zone has expanded to 3,500 zones in 130 countries as 2006. Many of these zones are

located in hazard-exposed areas increasing diaster risks.

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2.2 Types of Economic Costs of Disaster:

The types of economic costs can be broadly divided into two groups

Direct Costs

Indirect Costs

Direct Costs:

The costs are due to physical damage to agricultural crops, industrial plants, inventories,

etc.

It also includes economic losses on account of damage and destruction of economic

infrastructure such as roads, bridges, dams, electricity supplies, and social infrastructure

such as residential houses and building, hospitals, and educational institutions.

Indirect Costs:

Disasters result in disruption to the flow of goods and services- lower output on account

of disruption in supplies, and damage to productive assets and infrastructure. Economic

losses take place on account of disruption of income generating opportunities. Indirect

costs also include medical expenses and lost productivity arising from the increased

incidence of injury and disease. The indirect costs to the Governments include

compensation to the victims, and the cost of relief and rescue operations as well as the

costs relating to recovery and reconstruction.

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2.3 Economic losses of Disaster

Disaster can to adverse economic effects on humans. The economic effects are:

a) Economic loss due to Unemployment: Disaster result in economic loss to survivors

on account of unemployment may be short term or long term. In the short term,

people may remain unemployed due to the destruction of infrastructure, or damage to

factories, fields, vehicles, etc. In the long-term, people may remain unemployed due

to physical injuries which may not permit individuals to work. For instance, loss of

limbs, hands, eye sight, and so on may make the injured persons less employable or

not employable at all. during the disasters, the most affected are the people who work

in the unorganized sectors such as fields, self-employed people like auto rickshaw

drivers, people whose livelihood depends on livestock, etc. people who work in

organized sector may not be affected as they may be adequately compensated even if

they may not work during the disaster period.

b) Economic Loss due to Loss of Assets: people suffer economic loss on account of

loss of property. Disasters such as earthquakes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes, etc. results in

loss to property, which may be difficult to recover. For instance, the soil fertility,

which may be difficult to recover. For instance, the soil fertility may get adversely

affected on account of earthquakes, hurricanes, etc., and therefore, the fertile land

may become useless for cultivation. Also, due to disasters people may lose their

valuables such as gold, cash, and other assets.

c) Economic Loss due to Injury: people may suffer economic loss due to physical

injury. Lot of money may be spent on recovery. The Govt compensation may be

limited and at times may not be received at all. For instance, over 5 lakh victims of

Bhopal Gas Tragedy are left out of the compensation announced by Govt of India in

2010-( as stated by Madhya Pradesh relief and rehab minister on 4th December 2010).

d) Economic loss due to Death of Earning Family Members: Surviving members

may suffer economic loss on account of death of earning family member(s). In

several cases, the surviving members are left without any earning members in the

survive in the post disaster period.

e) Economic Losses due to disruption of Infrastructure: -Economic losses also take

place due to damage and disruption of infrastructure the income generating opportunities

26

get hampered on account of economic infrastructure such as electricity supplies, damage

to roads, bridges telecommunications, etc Therefore, business firms are adversely

affected as the production gets hampered. As mentioned earlier, Toyota lost US $1.2

billion (US $1200million) in2011 Japanese earthquake on account of shortage of parts to

manufacture cars. Not only production firms get affected, but also there is direct effect on

employment.

f) Effect on poverty Alleviation projects: There is adverse effect on poverty alleviation

projects on account of disasters. Funds or resources allocated for poverty alleviation

projects may be diverted by Government authorities for reconstruction rather than

spending on poverty alleviation projects. Disasters therefore, induce poverty, by making

median households poorer and the poor households destitute, due to their vulnerability

and inability to mitigate the losses.

g) Effect on GDP of affected Nations: Major disasters lower economic growth of the

affected nations. Lot of funds and resources are divided for relief and reconstruction

efforts, which as infrastructure. Lack of infrastructure development demotivates industrial

investment, which in turn leads to lower production. Therefore, disaster have an adverse

effect on GDP growth of affected nations, at least in the short run.

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2.4 India Disaster Context Analysis

India is the seventh largest country in the world by geographical area with an extent of

32,62,263 sq.km and is the second largest populated country in the world. India stands

unique in its rich cultural heritage, diversified geographical and climatic conditions, with

the snow covered mountains (Himalayas) in the northern side and rain forests in the

south, the Indo-Gangetic Plains ,the Deccan Plateau, the major life-giving Rivers which

make the areas fertile, deserts on the western side, drought prone areas and long

stretches of coastal areas.

India, due to its physio- geographic conditions, land characteristics and climatic

conditions, is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world, exposed to different

kinds of natural hazards. India has witnessed a number of disasters which claimed several

thousands of human lives, rendering millions of people homeless and causing immense

loss to properties of the people.

Natural Disasters from 1980 – 2010 - An Overview

Over ViewNo of events 431No of people killed: 143,039Average killed per year: 4,614No of people affected: 1,521,726,127Average affected per year: 49,087,940Economic Damage (US$ X 1,000): 48,063,830Economic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000): 1,550,446

Major Disasters that struck the country in the recent decades:

Year’s Disaster Flood2014 10/14 India relieved at low cyclone death toll

10/12 Huge cyclone batters eastern India10/12 Massive Indian cyclone races inland

2013 09/26 Dozens feared trapped in Mumbai building collapse

06/19 Pilgrims stranded by floods in India, deaths could rise

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08/18 India express train kills people crossing track

06/21 Death toll in Uttarakhand 'passes 500'

08/13 Indian submarine hit by explosion07/16 School meal kills 22 in India

04/05 Mumbai building collapse toll rises11/01 Cyclone tears into south Indian coast07/31 Half of India left without power

2012 07/29 Massive power outage hits India04/07 135 Pakistani soldiers trapped in avalanche12/08 At least 89 died in fire in Calcutta hospital fire

2011 09/18 16 dead in India, Nepal after 6.9 quakeThane Cyclone in Tamil Naidu and Puducerry in 201101/14 Stampede kills 100

2010 07/18 At least 45 dead in train collision05/27 100 dead after 'sabotage' derails train05/23 Cockpit voice recorder found at crash site05/21 Plane crash leaves about 160 deadCloudburst in Leh in 201012/28 300 migrants missing off Andamans

2009 Cyclone Laila in Andhra Pradesh in 2009Cyclone Aila in West Bengal in 2009

09/30 Temple stampede kills 147 08/31 Floods cut off thousands

2008 08/31 Floods cut off thousands 08/27 Flooding kills dozens, ruins 225,000 homes

Kosi Floods in Bihar in 200808/27 Flooding kills dozens, ruins 225,000 homesBarmer Floods in Rajasthan in 2006Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004

2004 12/29 Wave toll 'could exceed 100,000'12/26 9.0 Quake leaves 212,000 dead

2001 Bhuj Earthquake in 20011999 Super Cyclone in Orissa in 1999

Chamoli Earthquake in Uttarakhand in 19991997 Koyama Earthquake in 19971993 Latur Earthquake in Maharashtra in 1993

Killani Earthquake in 19931991 Uttarkashi Earthquake in 1991

29

2.5 Susceptibility of India to Natural Disasters:

Earthquakes: During the last 20 years, India has experienced 10 major earthquakes that

have claimed more than 35,000 lives. Almost 58% of our total land mass is prone to

earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity. The Himalayan mountain range is

undergoing constant geological changes (crustal movements) resulting in frequent

earthquakes and landslides.

Floods: Floods in the Indo-Gangetic – Brahmaputra plains are an annual feature. Several

thousands of lives have been lost, millions have been rendered homeless and 8 million

hectares of crops are damaged every year. India receives 75% of rains during the

monsoon season (June – September). As a result almost all the rivers carry heavy waters

during this time resulting in sediment deposition, drainage congestion, invading into the

main land. 40 million hectares of land is vulnerable to floods with about 30 million

people affected by flood every year. Floods brought severe drought in arid and semi arid

areas. About 12% of the total land mass is flood prone.

Cyclones: India has a long coastline running 7,516 km long and the entire coastal stretch

is exposed to Tsunami, cyclone, Tidal waves and storm surges. On an average, five to six

tropical cyclones strike every year, of which two or three are very severe. More cyclones

occur in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea and the ratio is approximately 4:1.

Every year the eastern coast is affected by cyclones and Tsunami. The Orissa Super

Cyclone (1999) and the India Tsunami 2004 claimed thousands and thousands of human

lives devastating agricultural crops and rendering lakhs and lakhs of people homeless.

Drought: The Desert which is located in the western region of the country and the

Deccan Plateau face recurring droughts due to acute shortage of rainfall. About 50

million people are affected annually by drought and 40 million hectares of land are prone

to scanty or no rain.

30

Landslides: Landslides are yet another recurrent phenomenon in the hilly regions of

India such as Himalayas, North-East India and Eastern and Western Ghat regions. The

major Landslide disaster that took place was at Malpa Uttarkhand (UP) in the year 1998

when nearly 380 people were killed when massive landslides washed away the entire

village. The 2010 Leh cloudburst led to flash mudslides and flash floods that killed 196

people swept away a number of houses and public buildings.

31

CHAPTER 3

DISASTER ISSUES AND STRATGIES

3.1 PHASES OF DISASTERS MANAGEMENT PROCESS

Disaster management involve policy decisions and operational activities relating to

various stages of disaster. Pre-disaster stages, disaster occurrence stage and post-disaster

stage. Disaster management aims at avoiding and minimizing the potential losses,

ensuring prompt and reasonable assistance to disaster victims, and achieving effect

recovery. The disaster management cycle include the shaping of public policy and plan

that either modify the causes of disaster or mitigate their on people, property and

infrastructure. The process of disaster involves the following phases:

Prevention, Mitigation, Preparedness and response.

I. PREVENTION

Prevention involve all those activities that are required to prevent the disaster or prevent

the gravity of loss, if the disaster occurs. The prevention phases involve active

participation of all groups of the society - Government, non-government organizations,

and other institutions. The following are the different elements of the prevention phase:-

1. The state Disaster Management Action Plan (DMAP) has been prepared for it

operationalisation by various departments and agencies of the Government of

Maharashtra and other non-Government agencies expected to participate in disaster

management. This plan provide for institutional arrangements roles and responsibilities of

the various agencies, interlinks in disaster management and the scope of their activities.

An elaborate inventory of resources has also been formalized.

The purpose of this plan is to evolve a system to:-

Asses the status of existing resources and facilities available with the various

departments and agencies involved in disaster management in the state.

Asses their adequacies in dealing with the disaster;

Identify the requirement for institutional strengthening, technological support, up

gradation of information system and data management for improving the quality of

administrative response to disaster at the state level;

32

Make the state DMAP an effective response mechanism as well as a policy and

planning tool.

The state DMAP addresses the state response to demand from the district administration

and in extra ordinary emergency situation multi district levels. It is associated with

disaster like road accidents, major fires, earthquake, floods, cyclone, epidemics and off-

site industrial accidents. the present plan is a multi-disaster response plan for the disaster

which outlines the institutional frameworks required for managing such situations.

The state DMAP specifically focuses on the role of various governmental departments

and agencies like the Emergency Operations Centre in case of any of the above

mentioned disasters. This plan concentrates primarily on the response strategy.

2. Disaster Warning :

The disaster management authorities need to plan for early warning of impending

disasters and its effect. For instance, storm or hurricane warning provide advance notice

to citizens, thereby, giving them to protect property, safe guard family members and move

to safer places.

A warning system is essential to indicate the on set of a disaster. This may range from

alarms (e.g. For fires) and sirens (e.g. For industrial accidents) to public announcements

through radio, television etc. (e.g. For cyclone, flood) and other traditional mode of

communication (e.g. Beating of drums, ringing of bells, hoisting of flags).

Important Elements of Warning :

Communities in disaster prone areas are made aware of the warning system.

Alternate Warning Systems must be kept in readiness in case of technical failures

(such as power failure)

All available warning system should be used.

The warning should, to the extent possible be clear about the severity, the duration

and the areas that may be affected.

Warnings should be conveyed in a simple, direct and non-technical language to

incorporate day-to-day usage patterns.

The do’s and don’ts should be clearly communicated to the community to ensure

appropriate responses.

33

Warning statement should not evoke curiosity or panic behaviour. This should be

in professional language devoid of emotion.

Spread of rumors should be controlled.

All relevant agencies and organizations should be altered.

Wherever possible, assistance of community leaders and organized groups should

be sought in explaining the threat.

Once a warning is issued it should be followed up by subsequent warning in order

to keep the people in formed of the latest situations.

In the event of a disaster threat receding, an all-clear signal must be given.

3. Education and Training :

There is a need to educate the various sections of the society on disaster management.

Involvement of educational and training institutions, corporate sector and non-

government organization in order to generate knowledge on disaster management by

conducting various training and awareness program are long term key factors for the

prevention and preparedness relating to disaster management.

II. MITIGATION

Mitigation efforts attempt to prevent hazards from developing into disaster altogether, or

to reduce the effects of disaster when they occur. Mitigation is the effort to reduce loss of

life and property by reducing the impact of disaster.

The mitigation phase differs from the other phases because it focuses on long-term

measures for reducing or eliminating risk. The implementation of mitigation strategies

can be considered a part of the recovery process, if applied after the occurrence of a

disasters.

Risk analysis : Risk analysis needs to be conducted to generate information that provides

a foundation for instance, insurance can be obtained to protect financial losses.

34

Structural and Non-structural Measures : Mitigation involves structural and non-

structural measures, which limit the impact of disaster. The measures can be taken at

individual level or at Government level.

The structural measures may include the changes in the structure of a building (such

as retrofitting for earthquakes to make the building resistant to earthquakes) or

changing the surroundings.

Non-structural mitigation measures may include obtaining property or building

insurance or building the house at a safer place. The non-structural measures may

include legislation or regulation regarding evacuation, sanctions against those who

and communication of risk to the public.

3.2 Relief and Rehabilitation Measures :

The relief and rehab measures are important elements of mitigation. Government, NGOs

and other can undertake various relief and rehabilitation measures. The measures can be

short term as well as long term measures :

1. Immediate Relief Measures : The government authorities need to undertake

immediate relief measures, which include :

Relief camps in case of major disaster such as earthquakes or floods, for

instance, during the Tsunami of December 2004, about 207 relief camps were

opened in Andaman and Nicobar Islands that sheltered around 46,000 people.

Ex-gratia payment to the next of kin all dead or missing of the disaster.

Intermediate shelters may be provided within ceratin months of disaster.

Compensation for crop and livestock loss.

Special relief ration need to be provided to the affected people.

Drinking water facilities need to be provided wherever necessary.

2. Social Services

Timely, preventive measures can be taken to ensure any outbreak of

communicable disease.

Health centres to be made functional at the earliest to provide medical care and

treatment.

Free medicines need to be supplied especially those with injuries.

35

Schools need to be opened at the earliest even with temporary structures.

Schools children need to be provided with learning kids. Schools may help to

reduce post traumatic stress disorder of school children.

3. Long Term Measures :

There are following long term measures are as follows:

A special package for reconstruction work to rehabilitate the damaged

infrastructure.

Reconstruction of permanent houses and community halls or centres, religious

structures such as community halls or centres, religious structures, panchayat,

offices, etc.

Restoring the livelihood of self-employed, fishermen, artisans and others. The

self-employed and micro units may be provided with processing and marketing

facilities.

Reclamation of land affected by salinity and inundation as well as replacing lost

livestock, if compensation is not adequately paid earlier.

Reconstruction of local transport facilities such as jetties railways stations, etc.

Which were damaged by the disaster.

Restoration of damaged power and information communication technology

infrastructure.

Upgrading drinking water supply and drainage system in affected areas.

Construction of social infrastructure such as schools, primary health centres etc.

3 . DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

At this stage, plan of action are developed to deal with the situation when the disaster

strikes. Disaster preparedness is an effective way of reducing the impact of disaster which

link emergency response and rehabilitation.

The following are the activities under disaster preparedness :

a. Communication plans : Proper communication plan must be put into place not only

to warn the people about the possible threat of disaster, but also to carry out relief

and rehabilitation operations more effectively.

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b. Training : Adequate training must be provided for disaster preparedness. Emergency

preparedness and capacity development in terms of adequately trained human

resources and infrastructure are the basic issues in the pre-event planing.

c. Casualty prediction : An important aspect of preparedness is casualty prediction,

the study of how many deaths or injured persons to expect for a given kind of

disaster. This gives planners an idea of what resources need to be in place to response

to a particular kind of event.

d. Stockpiling : There is a need for stockpiling of food supplies and maintaining of

other disaster supplies and equipment.

e. Evacuation Plan : Disaster by their very nature will be different and may require

evacuation of communities. There must be an evacuation plan depending on the type

of disaster.

IV. RESPONSE PHASE

The response phase includes the mobilization of the necessary emergency services.

Response phase includes events like setting up control room, putting the contingency plan

in action, issue warning actions for evacuation, taking people to safer shelters, providing

medical aid to the injured, situation assessment and resources mobilization.

Response includes three phases :- pre, during and post response phase :

Pre-disaster response plan intended to reduce the impact of disaster on the life and

property of the society by setting control room, evacuation of people, etc.

Response phase during disaster is to ensure that steps are being taken to alleviate

and minimize the loss of life and property.

Post response phase is to achieve rapid and effective recovery from disaster.

V. RECOVERY PHASE

The aim of the recovery phase is to restore the affected area to its previous state. It differs

from the response phase in its focus. Recovery effort are concerned wit issues and

decisions that must be made after immediate needs are addressed.

The activities under recovery phase are carried out in two stages :

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a) Short term recovery activities that aim to return life supporting systems (such as

shelter, food and water, clothing, medicines) to a minimum operating status for the

time being

b) Long term recovery activities may take several months or years to return life to

normal or better levels (provision of financial assistance for redevelopment, legal

assistance, if required, livelihood support, community planning and development,

counseling and psychological assistance, etc.)

CHAPTER- 4

SUMMARY OF STUDY

4.1 CONCLUSION

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The webster’s dictionary defines a disaster as “A grave occurrence having ruinous

results”

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines disaster as “any event concentrated in

time and space in which a society or a relatively self-sufficient sub-division if a

society, undergoes sever danger and incurs such losses to its member and physical

appurtenances, that the social structure is disrupted and the fulfillment of all or

some of the essential functions of the society is prevented

There are the following thing which explain the disaster are as follows :-

Borderless Certain natural disaster are not bound by the borders or nation or state.

Loss disaster result the death of several people apart form loss of huma n lives loss

of livestock infrastructure and other valuable assets.

Unsual Event disaster by their nature, are distinct from emergencies because do not

happen all the time. Unusual but not unexpected.

In the time of disaster is always seen that the is a issues of communication failure

like Frequency overdue, Battery Failure, Incorrect Information,

Misunderstanding.

Thing will much longer than one expects.

4.2 SUMMARY OF DISTER LOSES IN AND PREVENTION STRATEGIES

Disaster management occupies an important place in this country’s policy

framework as it is the poor and the under-privileged who are worst affected on

account of calamities/disasters.

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There are the following strategies for coping up the disaster :-

It is important for the affected persons to focus on taking good care of them- physically ,

mentally , and emotionally. One can make the choice to “act constructively “ rather than

“reacting to what has happened”.

Physical Coping strategies

Rest

Exercise

Eat

Relax

Avoid alcohol and drugs

Mental coping strategies

Get the facts

Prepare a schedule

Develop an action plan

Focus on your strengths

Rely on your spirituality

Emotional coping strategies

Connect with social support

Release emotions and tension

Spend time with friends and family

Recognize anger as a secondary emotion

Do not take out your anger on relatives and friend

4.3 BIBLIOGHARPHY

There are the following book are:-

Strategic Management ( Published by Manan Prakashan Mumbai) Michael vaz.

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Strategic Management Published by Tata McGraw Hill Bern Banerjee.

Disaster Management Strategies –A global perspective deolankar vivek published

by common wealth publisher new delhi.

Disaster and development – cuny Fred.c. published by Oxford University Press

Oxford.

WEBLIOGHARPHY

www.mapreport.com/subtopics/d/countries/india.html

www.wunderground.com

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