economic issues in the education sector harry anthony patrinos human development network
TRANSCRIPT
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Economic Issues in theEducation Sector
Harry Anthony PatrinosHuman Development Network
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Education as an IndustryEducation as an Industry
• Employment of teachers: 5% of labor force
• Millions of pupils• Spending = $2 trillion worldwide
– 1/3 of global market in USA; 15% in LDCs
• Education spending as investment• Human Capital
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Enrolment (millions) in Enrolment (millions) in Education, 1997Education, 1997
Pre-primary Primary Secondary TertiaryWORLD TOTAL 95.6 668.5 398.1 88.2More developed regions 22.0 62.9 75.8 34.2Countries in transition 13.2 27.4 41.1 11.0Less developed regions 47.5 578.2 281.3 43.0Least developed countries 60.4 68.7 16.4 1.9
UNESCO: World Education Report 2000
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Education ExpendituresEducation Expenditures(% of GNP)(% of GNP)
China 2.3India 3.2Brazil 5.1United States 5.4Denmark 8.1France 6.0World 4.8Sub-Saharan Africa 4.1
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Wages Relative to WagesWages Relative to Wageswith No Schoolingwith No Schooling
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
IndonesiaThailand
PeruCote d’Ivoire
USASlovenia
Primary Secondary Post-secondary
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Education Originally All Education Originally All PrivatePrivate
– Supply and Finance• Private tutors• Religious institutions• Ancient universities (e.g., Oxford)• No government (e.g., Somalia)• No public schools (e.g. Mali communities)
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And Why Not?And Why Not?
• Families and individuals demand education
• Tutors and institutions provide it
• The market works, or does it?
• Why should the government intervene?
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Because….Market Failure
• Equity
• Externalities
• Capital market imperfections
• Information asymmetries
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Market Failure: EquityMarket Failure: Equity
• The Middle Class and the Poor
• Girls
• Notion of education as human right
• Notion of compulsory education
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Market Failure: ExternalitiesMarket Failure: Externalities
• Minimum levels of literacy for growth
• Science and technology?
• Health and fertility effects
• Spillover effects
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Child Mortality by Education Child Mortality by Education of Motherof Mother
Mali 1995-96
Bolivia 1994
Uganda 1995
Philippines 1993
Nepal 1996
Yemen 1991-92
Morocco 1992
Deaths per 1,000 live births
No Education Primary Only Secondary or higher
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Market Failure: Capital Market Failure: Capital Market ImperfectionsMarket Imperfections
• Education is long-term business, financial institutions unwilling to take risk
• Difficult for suppliers to borrow against future revenue stream
• Difficult for students to borrow against future income stream
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Market Failure: Information Market Failure: Information AsymmetriesAsymmetries
• Suppliers of education have more information than purchasers (students)
• Result: students may end up in institutions other than those they would have selected with better information
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But…Government FailureBut…Government Failure
• Equity
• External Efficiency
• Internal Efficiency
• Sustainable finance
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Disparities between Girls’ Disparities between Girls’ and Boys’ Enrollmentand Boys’ Enrollment
• 1990, avg 6-year-old girl in low, mid-income country: 7.7 yrs of school; up from 6.7 yrs, 1980
• Gap between boys and girls widest in S. Asia: 1990, girl could expect 6 yrs of school; boy, 8.9
• Middle East: girl 8.6 years, boy 10.7
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Distribution of Expenditures by Income Quintile
0
10
20
30
40
50
Armenia 1996
Côte d’Ivoire 1995
Nepal 1996
Nicaragua 1993
Romania 1994
Vietnam 1991
Poorest 20% 2 3 4 Richest 20%
Poor get less education
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Government Failure: Government Failure: External EfficiencyExternal Efficiency
• Over-subsidized higher education– In Africa, spending per student in higher
education is 44x that per primary student
• Continuing high proportion of secondary education that is supply-driven vocational education
• Tertiary more costly than primary
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Government Failure: Government Failure: Sustainable FinanceSustainable Finance
• Increasingly difficult to meet demand for education, especially where little economic growth (e.g. Africa)
• Aid can help, but not sustainable
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Service DeliveryService Delivery
• Public schools lack spur for efficiency• Why?• Operated by Government• No competition• Teachers paid according to experience
and education, not performance• Schools closed or opened depending on
demographics, not how well they perform
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So What is the Answer?So What is the Answer?
• Market has strengths and weaknesses (“failure”)
• Government has strengths and weaknesses (“failure”)
• Draw on strengths of both market and government
• Minimize weaknesses of both
• Context-specific
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Emerging Role of Emerging Role of GovernmentGovernment
Draw on Market Strengths• Matching of Demand and Supply• Competition• Willingness to pay
Draw on Government Strengths
• Broad National Vision• Capacity to redistribute and
promote equity• Information
Avoid Market Failure• Promote Equity• Achieve Externalities• Overcome Capital Market
Imperfections• Overcome Information
Asymmetries
Avoid Government Failure• Promote Equity• Avoid Inefficiency• Achieve Sustainable Finance
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Provision
Financing Private Public Private
Private schools Home schooling
User fees
Public
Vouchers Charter schools Contracting out
Traditional public schools
Financing and Provision of Financing and Provision of EducationEducation
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Input
Water
School furniture
School facilities
Hardware
Textbook usage
Writing materials
Software
Teacher salary
Training
Logos II
4 year primary
3 years secondary
Cost (US$)
1.81
5.45
8.80
16.06
1.65
1.76
3.41
0.39
2.50
1.84
2.21
5.55
Achievement change by input (coefficients)
3.513
-5.650
7.228
8.969
6.403
4.703
4.864
0.055
-0.160*
3.594
3.177
2.383
Achievement gains per US$ spent
1.94
-
0.82
0.56
3.88
2.67
1.43
0.14
-
1.95
1.44
0.43
Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisCost-Effectiveness Analysisof Inputs for Portuguese Achievement, Brazilof Inputs for Portuguese Achievement, Brazil
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Education Expenditure and Education Expenditure and AchievementAchievement
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
United StatesSwitzerlandAustriaCanadaNorwayDenmarkJapanNetherlandsNew ZealandSpainCzech Rep.KoreaHungary
TIMSS RankingMaths Science
28 17 8 2512 818 1826 2027 34 3 3 9 624 2231 27 6 2 2 414 9
Expenditure/student
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Urban Rural
Mother’s Education + + + +Father’s Education + + + + +Age + + + + +Gender (Male) + + + + +Household Size -Recent Migration - -Language (Spanish + + + +
Household Income + +speaking only)
UrbanUrban RuralRural
Basico Intermedio
Primary Secondary
Determinants of School Determinants of School Enrollment, BoliviaEnrollment, Bolivia
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Figure 6.4. Affordability of Two Enrollment Scenarios
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Fiscal Year
VN
D t
rill
ion
Projected Budget
Plan Scenario
Baseline Scenario
Sources: VEFSS Projections.
Vietnam: Expenditure ScenariosVietnam: Expenditure Scenarios
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RecommendationsRecommendations
• Target subsidies to basic and to poor
• Cost recovery in tertiary
• Go slow with vocational
• Reduce dropout and repetition
• Quality enhancement– monitor learning– increase instructional
hours– teacher upgrading and
regular in-service trng– increase govt spending
on textbooks and learning materials
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Ethiopia: Sector Investment Ethiopia: Sector Investment ProgramProgram
•GER: 25%
•Target: 50% (from 3.1 to 7 million students)
•Distance: Build new schools close to students, especially in remote, rural areas
•2,500 primary schools will be built
•5,000 will be upgraded
•5,000 will be renovated
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School BuildingsSchool Buildings
Technological Alternatives:
• Mutually exclusive alternatives
• Lower present value
• Opportunity cost of capital
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Analysis of AlternativesAnalysis of Alternatives
Material Advantages Disadvantages Maintenance Chika (mud and thatch)
Cool in dry and hot weather
Cheap initial investment
Does not resist termites Washes away in rain Depletes forest Not popular with
community, students
High
Concrete element Resist termites and rain
Costly initial investment Low
Stone Resist fire, termites, rain
Costly initial investment Low
Hollow Concrete Block (HCB)
Resists fire termites, rain
Better insulation
Need stable foundation, supervision
Low
Brick Comfortable and cool Many trees cut to burn brick Weak in rainy season
High
Corrugated iron sheets
Cheap initial investment
Susceptible to corrosion Not heat resistant Not popular with community, teachers
High
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Analysis of AlternativesAnalysis of Alternatives
Cost comparison of school buildings, 1992 Birr* Capital Recurrent Life time* Cost/year
Material (Investment) (Maintenance) (years) lifetime Concrete element 213,000 2,130 40 7,455 Stone 189,284 1,893 40 6,625 Brick 170,400 5,000 30 10,680 Hollow Concrete Block 127,800 1,278 30 5,538 Chika 85,200 6,000 10 14,520 Corrugated Iron Sheet 31,950 5,000 10 8,195 Source: Participatory Evaluation of EICMA (Educational Institutes Construction and Maintenance Agency). A report to Ministry of Education and SIDA. 1992. * With full maintenance
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Summary Cost-Benefit Analysis of School Buildings, Ethiopia Transportation Difficulties:
Cost Escalation
Material Full Maintenance Half Maintenance 10% 20% 30% Concrete element 6% 9% 7% 5% 2% Stone 8% 11% 9% 6% 3% Brick 5% 11% 9% 6% 2% Hollow Concrete Block 17% 23% 19% 13% 8% Chika (base case) (base case) (base ) (base) (base) * Rate of return calculation based on savings due to selection of material versus chika
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Graphic Derivation of Crossover Discount Rate, Choice Between Chika and Hollow Concrete Block Alternatives in
Ethiopia
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
10 15 20 25
Discount rate(percent)
Pre
sen
t valu
e
(birr)
Chika
HCBCrossover discount rate
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MessagesMessages
• Investigate the market for education– Demand and supply
• Separate finance and provision– Role of private, NGO sector
• New roles for:– government, students, families,
communities