economic indicators favor nashville office market in 2017 · the 2016 annual net absorption of...

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Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 Research & Forecast Report NASHVILLE | OFFICE 4th Quarter 2016 Katie Barton Director of Research | Nashville, TN Key Takeaways > Nashville’s overall rental rate is at its highest point to date, closing out 4Q 2016 at $24.33 per square foot. This represents an increase of 0.6% since last quarter, and a 5.4% increase since 4Q 2015. > Nashville’s office market absorbed positive 1,101,934 square feet during 4Q 2016, the largest gain since Q3 2008, and nearly double the total of the first three quarters of 2016 combined. > 1.09 million square feet in new construction was added to Nashville market’s inventory during 4Q 2016. Of the Class A product delivered in 2016, 80% is occupied, leaving 311,000 square feet vacant. > Occupancy in the Nashville market remained above 95% each quarter of 2016 despite the delivery of 1.6M square feet. Nashville Office Market In its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 Survey, ULI named Nashville the “#6 U.S. Market to Watch for 2017,” evidenced by the city’s “hip factor, diverse economy driven by health care, technology, tourism, and education,” and strong investor interest. Employment remains strong in Nashville with a 3% year-over-year job growth, equating to about 39 jobs added per day, according to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. Nashville has transitioned to an upper-tier secondary market, and economic indicators favor Music City’s office market in 2017. Nashville’s office market remains among the nation’s most active, and the health care, legal, and corporate operations sectors helped fuel this momentum throughout 2016. Notable tenants in the market this year that signed new leases included Healthstream (25,893 SF) Surgery Partners (56,141 SF), and Universal Health Services, (65,000 SF). Corporate giant Bridgestone Americas will occupy 80,000 square feet in the Airport South submarket, and Schneider Electric will absorb 150,000 square feet in the Cool Springs submarket. Class A and creative office space was in high demand throughout the year, as marketwide Class A vacancy remained below 5% each quarter. The overall office market ended 2016 at 4.7% vacancy. The fourth quarter’s net absorption reached a positive 1.1 million square feet, bringing the 2016 year-to-date total net absorption to 1.7 million square feet. Market Indicators Relative to prior period 4Q 2016 1Q 2017* VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction. *Projected **Rental rates for current quarter are for the entire metro. Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents. Summary Statistics 4Q 2016 Nashville Office Market Entire Market CBD Suburban Vacancy Rate 4.7% 7.0% 3.7% 4Q Absorption 1.1M 949,361 152,573 New Construction 1.09M 785,000 313,000 Under Construction (Square Feet) 2.37M 1.24M 1.13M Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Average $24.33 $25.72 $21.36 Class A $28.13 $29.63 $27.77 Class B $21.82 $24.12 $19.89 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nashville 4.5% 3.8% Tennessee 5.6% 4.8% U.S. 5.0% 4.6% Unemployment Rates

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Page 1: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017

Research & Forecast Report

NASHVILLE | OFFICE4th Quarter 2016

Katie Barton Director of Research | Nashville, TN

Key Takeaways > Nashville’s overall rental rate is at its highest point to date, closing out 4Q 2016 at $24.33 per square foot. This represents an increase of 0.6% since last quarter, and a 5.4% increase since 4Q 2015.

> Nashville’s office market absorbed positive 1,101,934 square feet during 4Q 2016, the largest gain since Q3 2008, and nearly double the total of the first three quarters of 2016 combined.

> 1.09 million square feet in new construction was added to Nashville market’s inventory during 4Q 2016. Of the Class A product delivered in 2016, 80% is occupied, leaving 311,000 square feet vacant.

> Occupancy in the Nashville market remained above 95% each quarter of 2016 despite the delivery of 1.6M square feet.

Nashville Office Market In its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 Survey, ULI named Nashville the “#6 U.S. Market to Watch for 2017,” evidenced by the city’s “hip factor, diverse economy driven by health care, technology, tourism, and education,” and strong investor interest. Employment remains strong in Nashville with a 3% year-over-year job growth, equating to about 39 jobs added per day, according to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. Nashville has transitioned to an upper-tier secondary market, and economic indicators favor Music City’s office market in 2017.

Nashville’s office market remains among the nation’s most active, and the health care, legal, and corporate operations sectors helped fuel this momentum throughout 2016. Notable tenants in the market this year that signed new leases included Healthstream (25,893 SF) Surgery Partners (56,141 SF), and Universal Health Services, (65,000 SF). Corporate giant Bridgestone Americas will occupy 80,000 square feet in the Airport South submarket, and Schneider Electric will absorb 150,000 square feet in the Cool Springs submarket.

Class A and creative office space was in high demand throughout the year, as marketwide Class A vacancy remained below 5% each quarter. The overall office market ended 2016 at 4.7% vacancy. The fourth quarter’s net absorption reached a positive 1.1 million square feet, bringing the 2016 year-to-date total net absorption to 1.7 million square feet.

Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period 4Q 2016 1Q 2017*

VACANCY

NET ABSORPTION

CONSTRUCTION

RENTAL RATE** Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction. *Projected **Rental rates for current quarter are for the entire metro. Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents.

Summary Statistics 4Q 2016 Nashville Office Market

EntireMarket CBD Suburban

Vacancy Rate 4.7% 7.0% 3.7%

4Q Absorption 1.1M 949,361 152,573

New Construction 1.09M 785,000 313,000

Under Construction (Square Feet) 2.37M 1.24M 1.13M

Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year

Average $24.33 $25.72 $21.36Class A $28.13 $29.63 $27.77Class B $21.82 $24.12 $19.89

Nov-15 Nov-16Nashville 4.5% 3.8% Tennessee 5.6% 4.8%U.S. 5.0% 4.6%

Unemployment Rates

Page 2: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

2 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

Rental RatesNew construction, high occupancy, and client demand ushered in significant rental rate increases over the last two years.

Downtown’s Class A rental rate of $32.27, an average of both existing properties and new product, is a record high for this submarket. The record asking rate of $40 per square foot for newly-delivered Class A buildings downtown remains the highest asking rate in the Nashville MSA.

The suburban Class A rental rate has increased throughout 2016, peaking at $29.47 per square foot for new and existing space during the fourth quarter. Rates for new product in the suburban market have reached $35 per square foot in the Cool Springs and Brentwood submarkets.

Throughout 2016, the gap between average Class A rental rates downtown and rates in the suburban submarkets narrowed. Suburban Class A asking rates escalated and continue to become more competitive with Downtown rates. New suburban construction and market-wide demand for quality available space contributed to this emerging market trend.

Nashville’s overall average rental rate is at its highest point to date, closing out 4Q 2016 at $24.33 per square foot. This represents an increase of 0.6% since last quarter, and a 5.4% increase since 4Q 2015.

Vacancy & AvailabilityOccupancy in the Nashville market remained above 95% each quarter of 2016 despite the delivery of 1.6M square feet. 4Q 2016 closed with a market-wide vacancy rate of 4.7%. This is 40 basis points down from 4Q 2015, and strong demand for office space will likely keep Nashville’s vacancy below 6% until additional office product is delivered to the market in 2017.

Downtown Nashville was a top-performing submarket in 2016, as multiple tenants chose to relocate or expand into new space in various high-profile office towers. With the largest market-wide vacancy drop since last quarter, Downtown ended the fourth quarter with a Class A vacancy rate of 6.4%, down 260 basis points from 3Q 2016.

The average suburban Class A vacancy rate increased by 1.5% during 4Q with new vacancies created by Carlisle Transportation, Parallon Business Solutions, and Noranda. Cool Springs also welcomed 155,000 square feet of new Class A space with the delivery of Two Greenway Centre during the fourth quarter.

The high-demand submarkets* posting the lowest vacancies during 4Q 2016 are Brentwood (2.2%), West End (1.5%), and Green Hills/Music Row (2.7%). * Suburban submarkets with total Class A inventory totaling over 2M square feet.

Increases in office vacancy, resulting from new deliveries, are short-term in Middle Tennessee. Of the Class A product delivered in 2016, 85% is occupied, leaving 311,000 square feet vacant.

CBD vs Suburban Class A Rental Rates**

$20

$23

$26

$29

$32

$35

Q4-16Q3-16Q2-16Q1-16Q4-15Q3-15Q2-15Q1-15Q4-14

CBD Rental Rate Suburban Rental Rate

Nashville Market Rental Rates*

* New construction includes buildings delivered after 2014 and buildings that arecurrently under construction.**Inventory includes existing Class A properties exceeding 20,000 square feet, as well as Class A properties under construction.

$19

$26

$33

$40

Q4-16Q3-16Q2-16Q1-16Q4-15Q3-15Q2-15Q1-15Q4-14Q3-14

New Construction Class A Market

CBD vs Suburban Class A Vacancy Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Q4-16Q3-16Q2-16Q1-16Q4-15Q3-15Q2-15Q1-15Q4-14

CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy

Page 3: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

Nashville Market New Supply, Net Absorption, and Vacancy

New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy

Vacancy RateSqua

re F

eet

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

201620152014201320122011201020092008200720064%

6%

8%

10%

12%

10-year average deliveries = 1,030,000

Nashville Office Market Historical Vacancy & Rental Rates**

Market Rent Class A Rent Class A Vacancy

Vacancy RateRent

al R

ate

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

201620152014201320122011201020092008200720063%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Nashville Market Office-Using Employment

Nov-

16

Aug-

16

May

-16

Feb-

16No

v-15

Aug-

15

May

-15

Feb-

15

Nov-

14Au

g-14

May

-14

Feb-

14No

v-13

Aug-

13

May

-13

Feb-

13No

v-12

Aug-

12M

ay-1

2Fe

b-12

Nov-

11

100

150

200

250

Tota

l Em

ploy

men

t (Th

ousa

nds)

3 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

Product set for delivery in 2017 is 70% pre-leased and backfill space is being leased at a record pace. Warner Music Group signed a lease at Nashville City Center during 4Q and will absorb a large portion of Gresham Smith & Partners’ space once they become anchor tenant at 222 2nd Avenue in 2017. Healthstream signed a lease to backfill 25,900 square feet that became available when LBMC moved into their anchor space at Hill Center Brentwood during 4Q 2016.

Absorption & Leasing ActivityNashville’s office market absorbed positive 1,101,934 square feet during 4Q 2016. This was the largest gain since Q3 2008 and nearly double the combined total of the first three quarters of 2016. The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high.

Nashville’s 10-year average absorption of 1,030,000 square feet continues to outpace the 10-year average delivery of 875,029 square feet. Nearly 2.3 million square feet of space is on track to be delivered by late 2017, and 70% is pre-leased.

Downtown experienced the largest move-ins during 4Q 2016, closing the year with positive 1.01 million square feet absorbed. The largest occupancies at existing office towers included Intermedix Holdings (34,465 SF) and Dickinson Wright (22,085 SF) at Fifth Third Center and Hankook’s 41,000 SF move-in at AT&T Tower.

HCA subsidiaries Sarah Cannon Research Institute and Parallon Business Solutions relocated into their new 500,000 square foot location at Capitol View downtown, which will house a combined 2,000 employees. Newly delivered 1201 Demonbreun welcomed Sony Music, William Morris Endeavor, Lendlease, Brasfield & Gorrie, and Eakin Partners, making up 25% of Downtown’s 4Q absorption. Prominent law firm Manier & Herod signed a 10-year deal at 1201 Demonbreun and will occupy 15,369 square feet in 1Q 2017.

The suburban submarkets experienced significant occupancy gains throughout 2016 including AIG (183,000 SF) at Seven Springs West in Brentwood; SESAC Inc. (45,107 SF) in Green Hills/Music Row; Quorum (40,000 SF) in Cool Springs; Parallon Business Solutions (38,000 SF) in MetroCenter; C3 Consulting (30,235 SF) in Airport South; and Microsoft Corporation (13,319 SF) at ONEC1TY in the West End submarket.

Given the limited amount of available supply, the Nashville market accommodated sizable leases in 2016 for existing space that will be redeveloped and/or renovated. Bridgestone Americas will occupy 80,000 square feet on the second floor of the former Sears store at Hickory Hollow Mall in Airport South, and Lipscomb University will open a 20,100 square foot educational facility in first-floor office space in the Fourth & Commerce Parking Garage.

**Inventory includes existing Class A properties exceeding 20,000 square feet, as well as Class A properties under construction.

Page 4: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

Deliveries 10-Year Average Deliveries

Squa

re F

eet

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

10-year average deliveries = 875,000

2018

Pre-leased

201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006

5.1

Mill

ion

SF

Pla

nned

Nashville Market New Deliveries

615 Third Rendering

Build-to-Suit Opportunities

Summit BrentwoodBrentwood Submarket480,000 Square Feet Delivery 1Q 2019

One Music Circle SouthGreen Hills/Music Row 120,000 Square Feet Delivery 2Q 2018

4 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

2016 Office Development New construction of office space to accommodate the consistent job growth and leasing momentum in this extremely tight market was a dominant theme throughout 2016. Historically high rental rates have not slowed leasing momentum, evidenced by big deals in new space throughout the market. 1.6 million square feet completed in 2016, and 80% is leased.

1.09 million square feet in new construction was added to the inventory during 4Q 2016. With the deliveries of 1201 Demonbreun, Two Greenway Centre, and Hill Center Brentwood this quarter, Class A product now exceeds Class B inventory in the Nashville market.

> HCA’s new 500,000 headquarters at the Capitol View development and Eakin Partners’ 272,000 square foot 1201 Demonbreun completed construction this quarter in the Downtown submarket.

> Crescent Communities completed Two Greenway Centre during the fourth quarter. This speculative office development added 155,000 square feet of Class A office space in Cool Springs, with Holland Square Group and Volkert Inc. as the first tenants.

> Construction concluded on the first 158,000 square foot Building B at Hill Center Brentwood with 100% pre-leased. LBMC and Merrill Lynch occupy this building, and construction continues on 90,000 square feet at Building A.

URBAN

Nashville’s downtown skyline will see dramatic change in the next few years with construction on 1.24M square feet of Class A office space in the urban core underway and set for delivery within 18-24 months.

> Hines & C.B. Ragland Co.’s 24-story building on 222 2nd Avenue South and Bridgestone Americas’ 30-story square foot building are under construction and emerging in the skyline. Both have expected deliveries during 3Q 2017, and will bring a combined 850,000 square feet of Class A space to the Downtown submarket.

> Construction continues on 615 Third, a LEED Certified 120,000 square foot Class A building in the SoBro district. Barge, Waggoner, Sumner and Cannon, Inc., Colliers International, R.C. Mathews Company, and The Mathews Company will occupy 80,000 square feet at this location in 4Q 2017.

SUBURBAN

In addition to Nashville boasting a vibrant urban core, the city’s suburban markets are also attracting tenants and enjoying significant growth, with 1.13 million square feet under construction.

> Office development in Brentwood has square feet of Class A office space under construction. Hill Center Brentwood A (90,000 SF) and Brentwood Commons (130,000 SF) will both deliver next quarter, and Seven Springs II (130,000 SF) will complete during 2Q 2017. Nearly 70% of product that is under construction in this submarket is pre-leased.

> Construction continues on Two Franklin Park in Cool Springs. The building is 75% pre-leased by Schneider Electric and CKE Holdings, who will occupy a combined 61,000 square feet.

Page 5: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

2016 NOTABLE LEASING ACTIVITY

PROPERTY TENANT LEASE TYPE SF SUBMARKET LEASE SIGNED

Seven Springs II Surgery Partners Inc. New 56,141 Brentwood 1Q 20162963 Sidco Drive c3/consulting New 30,235 Airport South 1Q 20161201 Demonbreun Lendlease New 26,298 Downtown 1Q 2016Hill Center Brentwood Merrill Lynch New 21,000 Brentwood 1Q 2016UBS Tower - 5th Floor UBS New 18,300 Downtown 1Q 2016Maryland Park Center Maxim Health New 14,871 Brentwood 1Q 2016L&C Tower Warby Parker New 14,380 Downtown 1Q 2016624 Grassmere Park Turner Construction New 14,000 Airport South 1Q 2016Town Center at Berry Farms Alfa Insurance New 65,000 Cool Springs 2Q 2016AT&T Tower Hankook Tire America Corp. Sublease 39,031 Downtown 2Q 2016Fifth Third Center US Renal Care New 34,944 Downtown 2Q 2016Creekside Crossing Jack Henry & Associates Renewal 32,134 Brentwood 2Q 2016Two Franklin Park CKE Holdings New 29,470 Cool Springs 2Q 2016147 4th Avenue North Lipscomb University - Spark New 20,100 Downtown 2Q 2016Cummins Station Eventbrite Expansion 17,172 Downtown 2Q 2016Nashville Sash & Door Lyft Expansion 17,000 Downtown 2Q 201635 MSE Loeb & Loeb New 5,976 Green Hills /Music Row 2Q 2016Two Franklin Park Schneider Electric New 175,000 Cool Springs 3Q 2016Heritage Place State of Tennessee New 84,207 MetroCenter 3Q 2016Former Sears Building Bridgestone Americas New 77,218 Airport South 3Q 2016Nashville City Center First Tennessee Bank New 51,544 Downtown 3Q 2016222 2nd Avenue South Burr & Forman, LLP New 26,450 Downtown 3Q 2016UBS Tower Qualifacts Systems New 25,000 Downtown 3Q 2016Bank of America Plaza Smile Direct Club New 20,444 Downtown 3Q 2016Terrazzo in the Gulch Avison Young New 16,250 Downtown 3Q 20161201 Demonbreun Manier & Herod New 15,360 Downtown 3Q 2016Aspen Grove Office AGO - Elliot Davis New 12,789 Cool Springs 3Q 2016Brentwood Commons Universal Health Services Inc. New 65,000 Brentwood 4Q 2016Nashville City Center Warner Music Group New 30,000 Downtown 4Q 20165250 Virginia Way Healthstream New 25,893 Brentwood 4Q 2016424 Church Street Dickinson Wright Expansion 22,085 Downtown 4Q 2016AT&T Tower Deloitte Sublease 22,000 Downtown 4Q 2016105 Broadway Total Quality Logistics Renewal/Expansion 15,040 Downtown 4Q 20161801 West End Avenue Wang Vision Institute Renewal 8,251 West End 4Q 2016Two Greenway Centre Volkert Inc. New 8,000 Cool Springs 4Q 2016L&C Tower Satchel Health New 6,026 Downtown 4Q 2016

5 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

2017 Office Market OutlookIn the midst of this current real estate cycle, Nashville continues to be a strong, competitive market. Over the past five years, 5.75 million square feet has been absorbed, the overall vacancy has dropped 4.4%, and rental rates have increased an average of 8.6% yearly. With anticipated job growth of 41,500 jobs over the next two years, demand for office space is likely to remain solid across the metro. Activity in Nashville has been driven by sizable relocations, new-to-market leases, and existing tenant expansions.

Large vacancies are coming onto the market as 2016 closes, as new construction delivers and their respective tenants vacate their existing space. A testament to the competitiveness of the market, tenants backfilled these large spaces during 4Q. Over 500,000 available square feet of new construction is going to hit the market over the next 12 months, and 1.2 million square feet will be left to backfill. Rental rates are the highest that Nashville has ever experienced and may level off in 2017 pending a new wave of construction starts. Nashville ranked seventh in The Milken Institute’s “2016 Best-Performing Cities,” and supply/demand principles provide a favorable outlook for Nashville’s 2017 office market.

Page 6: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

2016 NOTABLE OFFICE INVESTMENT DEALS

PROPERTY BUYER SF PRICE PRICE/SF SUBMARKET DATE

Corporate Centre (3-7) Stockbridge 750,000 $165,000,000 $220 Cool Springs 3Q 2016

Bank of America Plaza Partners Group 436,000 $74,000,000 $170 Downtown 2Q 2016

Cool Springs Commons Jay Schuminsky 301,700 $58,265,000 $193 Brentwood 2Q 2016

Dover Centre Stockbridge 226,830 $44,500,000 $196 Cool Springs 2Q 2016

Commerce Center East Albany Road RE Partners 239,525 $42,500,000 $177 Aiport North 3Q 2016

530 Great Circle Road GC Essential Asset REIT 170,515 $41,300,000 $242 MetroCenter 2Q 2016

Vanderbilt University Medical Center Vanderbilt University 105,955 $28,957,605 $273 Cool Springs 2Q 2016

2900 Vanderbilt Place Vanderbilt University 10,442 $5,737,040 $521 West End 4Q 2016

*Bold text denotes Colliers International transaction.

Investment ActivityInvestor interest in Nashville remained strong in 2016 as office investment sales activity, including deals for medical office, included over $782.5 million with an average price per square foot of $246. Total 4Q investment volume in the office market reached over $117 million, which kept pace with the first through third quarters.

> The majority of assets traded in 2016 are properties located in the suburban markets. The sale of Corporate Centre 307 in Cool Springs was the largest office deal of 2016, trading for $165 million for $220 per square foot.

> Medical properties accounted for about 20% of the total transactions in 2016, totaling over $132.4 million at an average of $271 per square foot.

Cumulative Monthly Investment Volume

*Bold text denotes Colliers International transaction. Source: RCA Analytics

0

180

360

540

720

900

2013201420152016

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

6 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

DEFINITIONSColliers Inventory - Statistical set consists of all office properties of more than 20,000 SF, including owner-occupied. The data set excludes properties that are for educational, medical and government use. While Colliers attempts to provide the most accurate data at the end of every quarter, revisions are made throughout the year accounting for discrepancies in past reporting.

Class A Building - Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state-of-the-art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence.

Class B Building - Buildings competing for a wide range of users with average rents. Building finishes are fair to good for the area, and systems are adequate; but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price.

Class C Building - Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area.

Net Absorption - The net change in occupied space between the current quarter and the previous quarter, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy.

SF - Square Feet

Vacancy Rate - Percentage rate of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory.

579

6

1

2

3

4

8

1. Airport North2. Airport South3. Brentwood4. Cool Springs5. Downtown6. Green Hills/Music Row7. MetroCenter8. Rivergate/Hendersonville9. West End

Page 7: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

Nashville Office Market

MARKET BUILDINGS INVENTORY (SF) DIRECT VACANT (SF)

SUBLEASE VACANT (SF)

TOTAL VACANCY RATE 4Q ABSORPTION

2016 NET ABSORPTION

(SF)

AVERAGE RENTAL RATE PSF(GROSS)*

AIRPORT NORTH

Class A 12 2,297,092 87,226 3,918 4.0% (596) 63,104 $21.13

Class B 36 2,444,319 135,874 0 5.6% 6,912 (6,923) $17.86

Class C 5 156,517 5,416 0 3.5% 326 (2,683) $14.57

Total 53 4,897,928 228,516 3,918 4.7% 6,642 53,498 $19.52

AIRPORT SOUTH

Class A 1 96,000 0 0 0.0% 0 0 $23.50

Class B 47 3,630,246 190,984 141 5.3% 11,480 74,669 $18.42

Class C 27 1,027,844 117,894 0 11.5% 4,928 23,722 $17.97

Total 75 4,754,090 308,878 141 6.5% 16,408 98,391 $18.25

BRENTWOOD

Class A 28 3,080,719 81,576 35,267 3.7% 69,252 207,915 $28.73

Class B 52 3,175,856 18,315 11,008 0.9% 38,691 81,849 $24.45

Class C 6 239,552 0 0 0.0% 0 3,397 $19.61

Total 86 6,496,127 99,891 46,275 2.2% 107,943 293,161 $26.05

COOL SPRINGS

Class A 38 5,483,263 300,645 29,048 6.0% (53,620) 18,036 $29.48

Class B 52 2,114,420 56,912 0 2.7% (31,497) (2,237) $24.03

Class C 5 148,865 1,700 0 1.1% (1,700) (1,700) $23.30

Total 95 7,746,548 359,257 29,048 5.0% (86,817) 14,099 $28.42

DOWNTOWN

Class A 15 5,414,759 305,417 40,221 6.4% 895,902 925,390 $29.63

Class B 45 4,632,378 495,110 0 10.7% 44,759 81,375 $25.02

Class C 29 3,147,858 84,599 0 2.7% 8,700 6,327 $17.89

Total 89 13,194,995 885,126 40,221 7.0% 949,361 1,013,092 $25.72

GREEN HILLS/MUSIC ROW

Class A 9 1,296,678 55,464 12,951 5.3% (154) 90,405 $34.76

Class B 36 1,578,759 18,375 0 1.2% 23,855 13,541 $28.14

Class C 15 669,234 7,838 0 1.2% 2,470 2,205 $23.13

Total 60 3,544,671 81,677 12,951 2.7% 26,171 106,151 $29.14

METROCENTER

Class A 2 346,235 26,133 0 7.5% (12,458) (12,458) $20.00

Class B 15 1,128,608 67,157 0 6.0% 60,428 86,411 $18.79

Class C 6 327,607 0 0 0.0% 0 0 $17.00

Total 23 1,802,450 93,290 0 5.2% 47,970 73,953 $18.89

RIVERGATE/HENDERSONVILLE

Class A 9 620,512 32,581 0 5.3% 12,300 16,847 $23.38

Class B 13 373,301 4,650 0 1.2% 1,266 9,217 $21.46

Class C 16 850,455 2,644 0 0.3% 17,938 12,510 $17.13

Total 38 1,844,268 39,875 0 2.2% 31,504 38,574 $20.24

WEST END

Class A 18 3,023,304 53,423 10,114 2.1% 6,989 33,439 $31.70

Class B 26 1,717,708 13,365 0 0.8% (697) 17,118 $24.70

Class C 15 771,251 5,254 0 0.7% (3,540) (1,770) $20.74

Total 59 5,512,263 72,042 10,114 1.5% 2,752 48,787 $30.64

MARKET

Class A 132 21,658,562 942,465 131,519 4.9% 917,615 1,342,678 $28.13

Class B 322 19,666,987 1,000,742 11,149 4.8% 155,197 355,020 $21.82

Class C 124 7,339,183 225,345 0 3.0% 11,184 42,008 $16.16

MARKET TOTAL 578 48,664,732 2,168,552 142,668 4.7% 1,101,934 1,739,706 $24.33

7 Nashville Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2016 | Office | Colliers International

*Gross rates for existing office properties of more than 20,000 SF.

Page 8: Economic Indicators favor Nashville Office Market in 2017 · The 2016 annual net absorption of positive 1,739,706 square feet is a new post-Recession high. Nashville’s 10-year average

MARKET CONTACT:Janet Miller CEDC FMCEO & Market Leader+1 615 850 [email protected]

REGIONAL AUTHOR:Katie Barton CPRCDirector of Research+1 615 850 [email protected]

Colliers International | Nashville523 3rd Avenue Nashville, TN 37210

+1 615 850 2700 www.colliers.com/nashville

Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

About Colliers InternationalColliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 502 offices in 67 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. Colliers International has been recognized and ranked by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals’ Global Outsourcing 100 for 10 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm.

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502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continentsUnited States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108

$2.3Billion in annual revenue

1.7Billion square feet under management

16,300Professionals and staff