economic indicators: december 1950 - fraser

Economic IndicatorsDECEMBER 1950

i -

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

by the Council of Economic Advisers

!A>

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1950

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT

(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman

EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Via Chairman

FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas

JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania

ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan

RALPH E, FLANDERS, Vermont ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania

ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah x CHRISTIAN A, HERTER, Massachusetts

THEODORE J. KREPS, Staff Director

GSOVBR W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director

JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS(Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman

JOHN D. CLARK

ROY BLOUGH

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled " Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointCommittee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/'and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and theSergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the JointCommittee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printedfor sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

11


ContentsTHE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

The Nation's Economic Budget 1Gross National Product 2

PRICESConsumers' Prices 3Wholesale Prices 4Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 5Stock Prices 6

Labor Force 7Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries 8Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries 9Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries 10Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries 11Work Stoppages 12

PRODUCTION ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 13Weekly Production—Selected Indicators 14Production of Selected Manufactures .. 15New Construction 16New Housing Starts 17Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 18New Corporate Security Issues 19Inventories and Sales 20Merchandise Exports and Imports 21

National Income 22Corporate Profits 23Personal Income 24Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving 25Personal Consumption Expenditures 26Per Capita Disposable Income 27Farm Income 28Consumer Credit 29

MONEY, FEDERAL FINANCEBank Loans and Investments 30Money Supply 31Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32


THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGETConsumer incomes and expenditures both increased sharply in 3rd quarter, Business income declined mainlybecause the increase in inventory valuation adjustment more than offset the rise in corporate profits.Business expenditures increased slightly. The government account changed from a deficit to a surplus.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARSANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

50 100

CONSUMERS

1950,SECOND QUARTER

1950,THIRD QUARTER

Transfer!payments \

BUSINESS

1950,SECOND QUARTER

1950,THIRD QUARTER

INTERNATIONAL

I95O,SECOND QUARTER

1950,THIRD QUARTER

GOVERNMENT (Federal, state, ond local)

I960,SECOND QUARTER

1950,THIRD QUARTER

Transfer payments

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS {+}, EXPENDITURES (-)

1950, SECOND QUARTER I960, THIRD QUARTER-25 0 25 -25 0 25

CONSUMERS

BUSINESS

INTERNATIONAL

GOVERNMENT (Federal, state,ond local)

1 m i

. TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.

NOTE: SEE PAGE 2 FOR THE NATIONS ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)

SOURCE: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY I95O, APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTTotal expenditures for goods and services rose $14 billion (annual rate), or 5 percent, in 3rd quarter.Personal consumption expenditures increased 7 percent and business 'investment, 3 percent. Governmentpurchases showed little increase. Net foreign investment continued to drop.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS300

-50 LJ

ANNUAL TOTALS

iSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

NATIONAL PRODUCT

PRIVATE DOMESTtClNVESTMENT

RNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES'

FOREIGN INVESTMENT"

SOURCE;-DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED}

1950


[Billions of dollars]

Period*

1939.19441946. _1947. ..19481949

1949: First quarter ._• .Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter..

1950: First quarter. _._ ._Second quarter .Third quarter

Total grossnationalproduct

91.3213.7211. 1233.3259. 1255.6

Personalconsump-

tion expend-itures

67.5111.6146.9165.6177.4178.8

Gross privatedomestic

investment

9.97.7

28.730.243. 133.0

Net foreigninvestment

0.9-2.1

4.68.91.9.4

Governmentpurchases ofgoods and

services

13. 196.530.928. 636.643.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

258.8255. 2254.4253.8

263.4270.3284.3

177.4178.4179.0180.6

182.4185.2198.4

37.531.332. 131.2

41.746.948.4

1.01.3. 1

-.7

-1.7-2.0-3.3

42.944.343.242.8

41.040.240.8

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.


PRICES

CONSUMERS' PRICESConsumers* prices rose 0.6 percent from September 15 to October 15, to exceed the previous 1948 peak by0.2 percent. The sharpest price increases were for apparel and housefurnishings. Food prices, althoughslightly higher, were held down by seasonal declines in meat prices.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGEE20

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE220

1948 1949 I960

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1935-39=100]

Period

1940 monthly average1942 monthly average1943 monthly average1944 monthly average1945 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average1949: September 15 .

October 15 .November 15December 15

1950: January 15 .February 15—March 15April 15 -.May 15June 15July 15. __August 15September 15October 15

All items

100.2116. 5123. 6125.5128.4139.3159. 2171.2169. 1169 6168. 5168. 6167. 5166. 9166. 5167.0167. 3168 6170. 2172. 5173. 0173.8174. 8

Food

96.6123.9138.0136. 1139. 1159. 6193. 8210. 2201.9204 2200. 6200. 8197 3196 0194. 8196. 0196. 6200 3204 6210. 0209.0208.51 209. 0

Apparel

101.7124.2129.7138. 8145.9160. 2185.8198.0190. 1187 2186 8186. 3185 8185 0184. 8185 0185. 1185 1185 0184. 7185. 9190.5193. 4

Rent

104.6108.5108.0108.2108.3108.6111.2117.4120.8121 2121 5122 0122 2122 6122. 8122 9123. 1123 5123 9124. 3124. 6124.8125. 0

Fuel, elec-tricity, andrefrigeration

99.7105.4107. 7109.8110.3112.4121. 1133.9137.5137 0138. 4139. 1139 7140. 0140. 3140.9141. 4138 8138 9139. 5140. 9141.8143. 1

House fur*nishings

100.5122.2125. 6136.4145.8159.2184.4195. 8189.0185. 6185. 2185. 4185. 4184. 7185.3185. 4185. 6185. 4185. 2186.4189.3195.4199.8

Miscellane-ous

101. 1110. 9115.8121.3124. 1128. 8139. 9149.9154. 6155. 2155.2154.9155. 5155. 1155. 1155.0154.8155. 3155. 3156. 2158. 1158.8159.5

* A special survey indicates that food prices increased 0.2 percent between October 15 and November }5?

NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. : Department of Labor.


WHOLESALE PRICESWholesale prices advanced to new postwar peaks during November, with prices* of industrial products,farm products, and foods all increasing.

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF I§26 AVERAGEE20

160

120

100

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ; MONTHLY -. NOVEMBERW E E K L Y - NOVEMBER 28

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1926=100]

Period

1942 monthly average1946 monthly average .1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average.. _ _1949: October

November11 . December _

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarch „AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober _ _November *

Week ended:1950: November 7

14 _21 _ __28 _

December 5

All com-modities

98. 8121. 1152. 1165. 1155. 0152 2151. 6151. 2151. 5152 7152 7152 9155 9157. 3162 9166. 4169. 5169. 1171. 1

170. 0171. 0171. 2171. 7172.6

Farm prod-ucts

105. 9148. 9181.2188. 3165. 5159 6156. 8154. 9154. 7159 1159 4159 3164. 7165. 9176 0177. 6180. 4177. 8183. 0

181. 3183. 1184. 9185. 7187.5

Foods

99. 6130. 7168. 7179. 1161.4159. 6158. 9155.7154. 8156. 7155. 5155. 3159. 9162. 1171. 4174. 6177.2172. 5174. 9

173. 6176. 5177.5178. 2180.0

Other thanfarm prod-

ucts and foods95. 5

109. 5135.2151.0147. 3145.0145.0145.4145. 8145.9146. 1146. 4147. 6148. 8151. 5155. 5159.2161. 5163. 1

162. 2162.6162.4162.8163.4

' Estimates based on change in weekly data.Source: Department of Labor.


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers jumped sharply in November, reaching a point 12 percent above the pre-Koreanlevel. Prices paid by farmers were at a record high.


100 ^«p


PRICES RECEIVED

.1

PRICES PAID(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES

AND WAGE RATES)

PARITY RATIO*

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M M I I I 1 I I

30©

ZOO

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 491949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]

Period

1939 monthly average1942 monthly average - _ . _ „1944 monthly average1946 monthly average - - . _ • «1947 monthly average1948 monthly average . .....1949 monthly average1949* October 15

November 15 -- - «December 15 '

1950: January 1 5 _ _ . _Februarv 15 . - -« -March 15April 15 - .. -May 15 ...June 15 -_July 15 -August 15 -September 15October 15November 15 .

Pricesreceived

by farmers

95158

3 1962 234

275285249242237233235237237241247247263267272268276

Prices paid byfarmers (includ-

ing interest,taxes, and

wage rates)

123152182207240259250246245246249248250251254255256258261261263

Parity ratio *

77104108113115110100989795949695969797

103103104103105

1 Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates.* Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, iambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.Source: Department of Agriculture.

15086—50


STOCK PRICESIndustrial and railroad stock prices made record gains during most of November but declined sharply in thelast week of the month.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

150

1 25

0

WEEKLY AVERAGE

.•A

if\' / ' ^— """"""""""N^

/ /A \//\\A/ / t \I / \ \

^ // I x-"*

\ ¥x^/

1 I I 1 I 1 I I I 1

fWEEKLY AVERAGE S\ /

J

AtyINDUSTRIALS A' /^Hf'/^VI

^ y^/ \ A

\ / / i-fwy/i\A fiV^ \/ ^ • A .\W^! '\/v\v^t W/7>NRA1LBOAOS i

\A 1 rv"VV r"\-*

v -^ y^X^"^ UTILITIES **'"

1 1 I I I I I I | 1 1

r s /y v/v/

, .J ^\ / p,/V

r\/~^Jf

, COMPOSITE INDEX

?\I *, S* j. i

^^H x1^»/N<v/

v/JV

" ~1 1 1 1 1 lj I 1 I 1

s^ \i

A 1. - v..•"""••I

AX^"'Il **" ' K ^^^^^V

^^

I I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I 1

150

125

0

1948 1949 1950

SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39=100]

Period

Weekly average:1939 _19421946 _ . . _194819491949: October ~ _ ._

November _ _ _;December

1950: January „FebruaryMarch _ .April _ .M a y ' _June __ -JulyAugust _SeptemberOctoberNovember _ _


815

" ' 2 2 _." - _29 2

Compositeindex l

94. 269. 4

139. 9124. 4121. 3127. 3129. 1132. 7135. 1136. 7138., 8141. 8146. 9147. 7138. 2147. 2151. 7157. 8156. 1

154. 6154. 1157. 1160. 0154. 5

Industrials

94. 871. 3

143. 4130. 6127. 5134. 4136. 5140. 3142. 6144. 4146. 5150. 0156. 1157. 6147. 3158. 0163. 3170. 6168. 8

167. 0166 6169. 9173. 5167. 1

Railroads

74. 766. 1

143. 0114. 796. 497. 696.2

101.0107.8107. 2108. 5109.5109. 7107. 1109. 7120. 6125. 1129. 2126. 5

123. 7123. 1128. 4131. 5125. 7

Utilities

98. 661. 3

120. 296.297. 5

101.2102.6104. 1105. 8107.4109. 6111.0112.8111.5103. 0104. 2104. 9106. 2105. 0

105.4104. 7105. 3105. 5104.0

1 Composite index prior to June 23,1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter,416 common stocks are represented with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities.

2 Data became available after chart was prepared. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.


EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES• T S "D/ 'O TC / TDI IC11

lJJHLJ5\JJX C \JK\JJLA - \Most changes in the labor force in November were due to seasonal factors. Agricultural employment dropped* inonagricultural employment increased. Unemployment was higher, chiefly because of women entering ;thelabor force in search of holiday jobs and a small number of factory workers affected by conversion t©defense production.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS MtUJONS OF PERSONS

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

H

_

_

-

-

1

•B

:

PU^^WMt

m•^^W&

•^^^

_

_

-

-

UNEMPLOYMENT TOTAL^5-- ^ LABOR FORCE ^ X - _™,

^^^^^^^^^MAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT W^mmm.

- • :-

_

NONAGR

-

-

1 i t i 1 1 t 1 i i J

CULTURAL EMPLOYMENT

1 i t 1 i I I 1 ! t ! ,

-

^^XKm^^m^^^^^^^^^

"' • ' j _

- ' • • _

" - ; -

, , / - / : - : _

' i - i t- i i t-*4'-: i ' i -\-- i

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

n

PERCENT PERCENT20

15

10

5

0

._. I I M C T M D I nVft/lCTMT _ DtTDCCTMT HC n\/ll 1AM 1 A BAP PHRTP

~

~

~

-

S ~

rmi pij jii| till

-

-

~^— _ ^^^^^WMMmMMMMMMim

939 1944 1947 1948 1949^^^^^^^•ffl ^ ft KS1^^^ : ^ |

20

15

10

5

0I

MONTHLY AVERAGE l948 1949 l950

Period

1939 monthly average^1944 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average

1949: OctoberNovemberDecember

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay _ _JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember _ _ .

Civilian labor force

TotalEmployment 1

Total Agricul-tural

Nonagri-cultural

Unem-ploy-ment

Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over55, 230545 63060, 16861, 44262, 105

62, 57662, 92762, 045

61, 42761, 63761, 67562, 18362, 78864, 86664, 42764, 86763, 56763, 70463,512

45, 75053, 96058, 02759, 37858, 710

59, 00159, 51858, 556

56, 94756, 95357, 55158, 66859, 73161, 48261, 21462, 36761, 22661, 76461,271

9, 6108, 9508,2667,9738,026

7,7107,8786,773

6, 1986,2236,6757, 1958,0629,0468,4408, 1607,8118,4917,551

36, 14045, 01049, 76151, 40550, 684

51, 29051, 64051, 783

50, 74950, 73050, 87751, 47351, 66952, 43652, 77454, 20753, 41553, 27353, 721

9,480670

2, 1422, 0643, 395

3, 5763, 4093,489

4,4804, 6844, 1233, 5153,0573,3843, 2132,5002,3411,9402,240

Unemploy-ment as per-cent of total

civilianlabor force

17. 21.23. 63.45. 5

5. 75.45.6

7.37.66.75.74.95.25.03.93.73.03. 5

i Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad wea-ther, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.

i.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce.


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIESManufacturing employment rose by 70,000 between mid-September and mid-October to nearly 15.8million, a new postwar record. The increase reflected acceleration in plant and equipment expendituresand record sales of consumers1 goods. Employment increased seasonally in trade.

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS

MILLIONS OF WAGEAND SALARY WORKERS

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

I I I IJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

lbl*M

r~ i

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers *]

Period

1939 monthly average. „1943 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average1949: September _

OctoberNovemberDecember

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarch . .April . _MayJune _ _ _JulyAugust 2

September 2

October 2

Manufacturing

Total

10, 07817,38114, 46115, 24715, 28614, 14614, 31213, 89213, 80714, 03113, 98013, 99714, 10314, 16214, 41314, 66614, 77715, 44215, 68715, 757

Durablegoods

4,68311,0777,7398,3738,3157, 4657,4096, 9867,0507,3037,3427,3247,4187,5487,8097,9647,9788, 2878,4358,563

Nondur-able goods

5,3946,3046,7226,8746,9706,6816,9036,9066,7576,7286,6386,6736,6856,6146,6046, 7026,7997, 1557,2527,194

Contractconstruc-

tion

1, 1501, 5671,6611,9822, 1652, 1562, 3412,3132,2442,0881, 9191,8611,9072,0762, 2452,4142,5322,6212,6102,595

Trade

6,6127,1898,6129, 1969,4919,4389,4099,5059,607

10, 1569,2469,1529,2069,3469,3269,4119,3909,4599,6489,745

Financeand

service

4,7035,3206, 2076,4276,5156,5456,6046, 5616,5346,5086,4736, 4736,4996, 5606,6026,6536,6726,6666,6446,577

Govern-ment

(Federal,State,local)

3,9876,0495,6075,4545,6135,8115,8935,8665,7836,0415,7775,7425,7695,9155,9005,8325,7415,7936,0046,039

Transpor-tationand

publicutilities

2,9123,6194,0234,1224, 1513,9773,9593,8713,8923,9303,8693,8413,8733,9283,8854,0234,0624,1184, 1364,112

Mining

845917852943981932948593917940861595938939940946922954951944

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearestthe 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not com-parable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on anenumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.

2 Preliminary estimates Source: Department of Labor,

8


HOUF

42

40

38

36

34

0

42

40

38

36

34

0

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIESThe average workweek in manufacturing industries increased to 41,4 hours in October, the longestworkweek since December 1945.

?S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURINGA . .

Till, I . M . I

, -*T

1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 M I

vvv

1 1 1 L 1 i 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947 1948 1949 I960

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

*

i i l i i 1 M 1 M

v^

J LJ 1 1 I I l_l 1 1

1947 1948

* NOT AVAILABLE PRIOR TO JANUARY 1943

VX /A

V¥

f I 1 1 1 1 I I t l 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 M 1 1

1949 ,1950

42

40

38

36

34

0


x .

t i i i i I i i i i t

^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i

^^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

rV

M i l l Li . 1 1 I

1947 1948 1949 (950

42

40

38

36

34

0

RETAIL TRADE

^£\^_/\ yv^/X/T^/N

1 I 1 1 l 1 I I I M

<%/

t i 1 1 i 1 l i 1 1 t

1947 1948

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t M 1 1 1

1949 1950

[Hours per week, selected industries !]

Period

1939 monthly average . _1943 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average - .. _1949: September _ _

OctoberNovemberDecember _

1950: January „_ .February .MarchAprilMayJuneJuly__August 3September 3

October3 _ _

Total

37. 744. 940. 440. 440. 139. 239. 639. 739. 139. 839. 739. 739 739 739 940. 540. 541. 241. 041. 4

Manufacturing

Durablegoods

38.046. 640. 240. 640. 539. 539 639. 939. 040 140. 040. 140 240 740 841. 341. 141. 841 742. 2

Nondurablegoods

37.442. 540.540. 139. 638. 839. 639. 639. 339. 539. 439. 339.238 538. 939. 539. 840. 540. 240. 3

construction

(2)(2)

(2)(2)

37.336.736. 536.936. 135.834.833.734. 535. 636. 537. 036.937. 536.4

(2)

Retail trade

(2)(2)(2)

40.340.340.440. 540.440. 140.740.440.440.340.240.440.941.241.340.4

(2)

1 For production and related workers. iNotaraqable, * Preliminary estimates.Source: Department of Labor.


DOLL1,60

1.50

1.40

1.30

1.20

0

2.1 0

2.00

1.90

1.00

1.70

0

«

AVERAGE HOURLY EAFHourly earnings in industries manufacturing durable goo*October. But in nondurable goods industries, they r

t^RS PER HOUR

DURABLE MANUFACTURING ^

1949 DOLLARS* X***X

^^>T^/ CURRENT DOLLARS

~, , , , ! , , , , , , , , , . ! , , , . . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1

^^

1 1 , i .71947 1948 1949 1950


X-N. /

1949 DOLLARS* J /

**r*^* CURRENT

1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 IJ 1 1 1 1

DOLLARS

1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

''

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1

jNiisjs rose bDse by o

DOLL1.50

1.40

1.30

1.20

I.! 0

0

1.30

1.20

1. 10

1. 00

.90

0 [

fGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES

y slightly over 1 cent between September andver 2 cents.

ARS PER HOUR


1949 DOLLARS* ^^r**-jt

~~/<\S*^ CURRENT DOLLARS

i 1 J 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 M 1 Ll 1 L 1

p^-A-—

M i l ! 1 i 1 I 1

/ x^ .

i 1 i 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1

1947 1948 1949 IfSO

, RETAIL TRADE,

1949 DOLLARS* p^^^****^

S*****'^ CURRENT DOLLAF

^

1 l l 1 i l 1 l l i l i i i i l l l l

1947 1948 1949 1950 1947 1948

sOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

s

I ' l l ) J JJl 1 J

^pXTl

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11949 I960

[Selected industries l]

Period

1939 monthly average1943 monthly average1946 month1 v average _1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average1949' September

OctoberNovember .December

1950* JanuaryFebruary _ _March _AprilMav ,-- --Aucojr ,JuneJulvAugust * .' - - - -September 4

October 4

All manufacturing

Currentdollars

$0. 633.961

1. 0861.2371. 3501.4011.4071.3921. 3921.4081. 4181. 4201.4241. 4341.4421.4531. 4621.4631.4801. 497

1949dollars 2

$1. 0771. 2861. 2871.3121.3341.4011.4031.3981. 3961.4211.4371.4421.4411.4501. 4461. 4441.4331.4301. 4401. 448

Durable goodsmanufacturing

Currentdollars

$0. 6981.0591. 1561.2921.4101. 4691.4821.4581.4571. 4761.4851. 4831.4861. 4991. 5091. 5221. 5331.5371. 5611. 572

1949dollars 2

$1. 1871. 4181.3701.3701. 3931. 4691.4781. 4641.4611.4891. 5051. 5061.5041. 5161.5141. 5131. 5031.5021. 5181. 520

Nondurable goodsmanufacturing

Currentdollars

$0. 582.803

1.0151. 1711.2781.3251. 3281. 3251.3251. 3341.3431.3501. 3531.3551. 3581. 3651.3751. 3751. 3811.402

1949dollars 2

$0. 9901.0981.2321.2421.2631. 3251. 3241.3301. 3291.3461.3611. 3711.3691. 3701. 3621.3571.3481.3441.3431.356

Buildingconstruction

Currentdollars

(S)

(3)(8)

(3)$1. 8481.9351.9381. 9441.9471.9641.9761.9881. 9951.9861.9981. 9952.0062. 0312.076

(a)

1949dollars 2

(3)(3)(i)«

$1. 8261.9351.9321. 9521. 9531.9822.0022.0182. 0192.0082.0041.9831.9671. 9852. 018

(3)

Retail trade

Currentdollars

(3)(B)

(3)$1. 009

1. 0881. 1371. 1501. 1401. 1381. 1261. 1531. 1451. 1481. 1561. 1621. 1751. 1891. 1901.198

(3)

1949dollars 2

(3)(3)(3)

$1. 0701.0751. 1371. 1471. 1451. 1411. 1361. 1681. 1621. 1621. 1691. 1651. 1681. 1661. 1631. 165(3)

i Production and related workers.»Not available.Source: Department of Labor,

* Current dollars divided by consumers' price index «m tee 1949=100, ge§ note 3 to table on page 27.* Preliminary estimates.

10


DDL65

60

55

50

45.

0

80

75

70

65

60

0

AVERAGE EAiAverage weekly earnings in manufacturing continuedthey increased by $1.25, largely because of the lon^increased by about $1.00, due chiefly to wage rate

LARS PER WEEK /

DURABLE MANUFACTURING //

1949 DOLLARS* f^/^

y-C

IT , , M l , , , , ,

r^RRENT DOLLARS

rs^^v

mil l

v-T

fj1947 1948 1949 1950


/"

1949 DOLLARS*

T, . . . I . . . . .

y"CURRENT C

1 MM hl l l l

1947 1948

b>/^W

OLLARS

i i 1 i 4 1 n i \ \

/^¥

,M, , i , , , , r1949 1950

JNIIstheir ste3er workvncreases

DOL60

55

50

45

40

0

50

45

40

35

30

0

^

fGS -ady rise in October. In durable goods industries,week. In nondurable goods industries, they

LARS PER WEEK


+s

£1949 DOLLARS* . -*

^^jr^^

^^xX^-. CURRENT DOLLARS

1 ' ' 1 ' I 1 1 LLJ, 1 1 I 1 i 1 I M i l

rS~w

i . . . i 1 i . . i .

2£^rS>~

H1947 1948 1949 1950

RETAIL TRADE

i + 1949 DOLLARS* ^^*^^A

-/ X*V '*""

'~'r^\ ~'•"•"""''' CURRENT

I ' 1 ! ' 1 1 ' 1 ' '

DOLLARS

i i I i I 1 i I i i i _

1947 1948

fe^^

1949 1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS

[Selected industries *]

Period

1939 monthly average - -1943 monthly average.. _ .1946 monthly average1947 monthly average .1948 monthly average1949 monthly average1949: September.

OctoberNovemberDecember . .. .

1950: January...FebruaryMarch. ... _AprilMayJuneJulyAugust 4

September 4 .October 4

All manufacturing

Currentdollars

$23. 8643. 1443. 8249.9754. 1454.9255. 7255. 2654. 4356. 0456. 2956. 3756. 5356.9357.5458. 8559.2160. 2860. 6861.98

1949dollars 2

$40. 5857.7551.9252. 9953. 5054.9255.5555. 4854. 5956.5557. 0357.2357. 2257. 5657. 7158. 5058. 0558. 9259. 0359. 94

Durable goodsmanufacturing

Currentdollars

$26. 5049.3046.4952. 4657. 1158. 0358.6958. 1756. 8259. 1959. 4059.4759.7461. 0161.5762. 8663 0164.2565. 0966. 34

1949dollars 2

$45. 0766. 0055. 0855.6356. 4358.0358. 5158.4056.9959.7360. I8-60. 3860.4761. 6961.7662. 4861.7762.8163 3264. 16

Nondurable goodsmanufacturing

Currentdollars

$21. 7834.1241. 1446.9650.6151.4152. 5952.4752. 0752. 6952. 9153. 0653. 0452. 1752. 8353.9254. 7355. 6955. 5256. 50

1949dollars 2

$37. 0446.6849. 9349.8050. 0151. 4152. 4352. 6852.2353. 1753. 6153.8753. 6852. 7552. 9953. 6053.6654. 4454, 0154. 64

Buildingconstruction

Currentdollars

(8)P)«(3)

$68. 8570. 9570.6971.8070. 2170.2668. 7667.0068.8370. 7072. 9373.8274.0275. 5776.16

P)

1949dollars 2

(3)(3)«(3)

$68. 0370.9570.4872. 0970. 4270.9069. 6768. 0269.6771.4973. 1573. 3872.57^73.8774.09

(3)

Retail trade

Currentdollars

(3)(3)(3)

$40. 6643.8545. 9346.5846. 0645. 6345. 8346. 5846.2646.2646. 4746.9448. 0648. 9949. 1548. 40

(3)

1949dollars *

P)(3)(3)

$43. 1243.3345. 9346.4446.2445.7746.2547. 1946.9646. 8246.9947.0847. 7748. 0348. 0447.08

(3)

i For production and related workers.8 Not available.Source: Department of Labor,

8 Current dollars divided by conmrnen' prioe tncjei on. the base 1948^100,8 Preliminary estimates.,

gee note 3 to table on page 27.

11


WORK STOPPAGESMan-days of idleness resulting from work stoppages decreased In October. No large stoppages began duringthe month.

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE20

MONTHLY AVERAGE

0 I I I I I I I I I I I1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

20

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

193919411942194419451946194719481949

1949: SeptemberOctober _ .NovemberDecember

1950: January1

February *March1 .. ..April1...May *June *July1 ...August *September1^October1

Man-days of idlenessduring period

Monthlyaverage

(thousands)

1,4831,917

348727

3,1679,6672,8832,8424,208

6,27017, 5006,2701,350

2,6007,8503,7503, 1503,0002,7502,9002,9003, 5002,450

Percent ofestimated

working time

0.28.32.05.09.47

1.43.41.37.59

.872.49.93. 19

.381.27.49.47.40.36.41.35.48.30

Workers involved instoppages

Beginningin

period(thousands)

1, 1702,360

8402, 1203,4704,6002, 1701,9603,030

5075705746

1857580

160325260225350275180

In effectduringmonth

(thousands)

603977914417

300515530300500400400465460300

Number of stoppages

Beginningin

period

2,6134,2882,9684,9564,7504,9853,6933,4193,606

287256197170

225210260400450425425560525525

In effectduringmonth

536475388323

340325400550650650650800800800

1 Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor.

12


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONPreliminary estimates indicate that industrial production in November dropped just below the high Octoberlevel because of the storms. The expansion in Octooer was primarily the result of increased output ofmachinery and producers' durable goods and the record production of nondurable goods.


PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE40O

1939 4O 4i 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49I I . . . . . , , , I , , , , .

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

1 Preliminary estimates.

Period

1943 monthly average1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average-1949 monthly average -1949: September

October-November. _ „December.-

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarchApril _ _ _ . _MavjJuneJuly .AugustSeptember-October 1 _ _ _ _November 1

Totalindustrial

production

239170187192176174166173179183180187190195199196209212215214

1

Total

258177194198183184176179188192192194199204208206218220224222

Manufacture

Durablegoods

360192220225202199175181203209207211222231236235247252260256

s

Nondura-ble goods

176165172177168172177177176179180181180181183181195194195195

Minerals

132134149155135119112141132130118144140145151144159163167164

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

75986—50- 13


WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORSSteel mill operations averaged 102.7 percent of rated capacity during November, breaking all previoustonnage records. Electric power production established new peaks; coal output continued at a high rate.Although assembly of cars and trucks declined because of changing models and taking inventories,production' was above last year,

MILLIONS OF TONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE .REPORTS.

Period

Weekly average:1947__ .19481949 ....


121926

December 3 _10

1950: November 4 __ _1118__ _ - -25

December 29

St

Thousands ofnet tons

1,6281,6951,496

162387

1,0581, 4421, 6171, 690

1, 9751, 9871, 9811, 9811, 5761, 938

eel

Percent oftheoreticalcapacity *

93.094. 181.0

8. 821. 057. 478. 287. 791. 7

102. 4103. 0102. 7102. 781. 7

100. 5

Electric power,by utilities(millions of

kilowatt-hours)

4,8215S 3005,500

5, 4355, 4355, 6445, 5375, 7435,881

6, 5516, 5746, 7286, 5086, 716

Bituminouscoal

(thousands ofshort tons) 8

2,0581,9481,427

4571,2132,4312, 4581, 5911, 601

1, 9021,8311, 9741, 8101,567

Cars andtrucks

(number)

92, 16382, 340

120, 350

112, 838111, 727111, 77971, 86068, 38546, 667

169, 553153, 695118, 404116, 059145, 864

i Bawd on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947,1,802,476 for 1948,1,843,516 for 1949,1,906,268for the first half of 1950, and 1,928,721 beginning July 1,1950.1 Daily average for week.Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.

14


]1

PERC250

200

150

1OO

0

350

300

250

200

150

IOO

0

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES ~]

deduction of iron and steel and machinery climbed substantially above September levels in October; output ofDther durable goods continued strong, There was increased activity among nondurable industriesmanufacturing textiles, chemicals, and petroleum products.

IRON A

S°\ A

/Y// V1^6

W

ER

STEEL^y--nfx/Y^V.\»w/^^AND PRODUCTS*

L J L-r-r i i . i i i i i ri nTiiilm ii

A

Vjl

*-~v|1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

/,--~V

1 1 1 1 i 1 i ii iT

n\^\l\f \,'\1 /',' \I 'J NONFERROUS

^ 1 1 . . i I 1 i f=

H NERYv

METALS AND PROD

Lm.nrii.LLi

\ ^Vv,

)\ r'/ % 1

,CTS %/

1 I I t 1 1 1 I i 1

40 42 44 46 48 1948 1949

/

,y//

l . l l l l l MM5

1950

E SYSTEM

250

200

150

100

0

350

300

250

200

150

100

o l

I \ PETROLE

/ V ••"»•\ /N/ V

/A ^\/ • ^»**w/|v ^/X ^"TEXTILE

/

^ i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1

uwoc

s

AND COALv,UCTS ^y»-^'^\f

^V>XND PRODUCTS

L~ril 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1

K.v•v rVJJ_L1 LLt I I I 1

hy/

w

1 1 j i j i i 1 1 nn

K! \1 \

i \xCHEM

; \ / \r^i

iii1 ^**^**

c M. PRODUCTS

^^ ,A/>- T*. x^

-**«^NX*Y.i s~~*^f y| ^^ ^-MANUFACTURED FOOD/ /r PRODUCTS

* JL_ J Li i i i i i i i i n rTi i » 1 1 M 1 1 140 42 44 46 48 S948

XX

. — ^_

1 ! 1 1 1 I 1 Ii 1 1

^^^^ x~X

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTl1949 i950

s

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1943 monthly average.1946 monthly average-1947 monthly average-1948 monthly average.1949 monthly average. _ _ __1949: September....

OctoberNovemberDecember

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJuly .....AugustSeptember.October 1 _

Durable manufactures

Iron andsteel

208150195208188179102145201203201205222226231228236245254

Lumberand

products

129131143145130132133147159144150156159158155151165165165

Machinery

- 443240276277234224226217227229236243251258262265279286300

Nonferrousand

products

267157187193160157164163166180190200198107207202212216222

Nondurable manufactures

Textilesand

products

153162163170147155169175173178179173174175173165189191194

Petroleumand coalproducts

185173193218209208198205219211205207206216222229238242247

Manufac-tured foodproducts

145149157159163167165160160161161165164164164167168168164

Chemicalproducts

384236251254241236240243245248247247252256261263267270275

i Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

15


NEW CONSTRUCTIONExpenditures of $2.4 billion (seasonally adjusted) for new construction in November were practicallyunchanged from the October level but- were 22 percent above a year ago. Private residential nonfarmactivity continued to decline moderately from its September peak. Other private and public constructionwere above their October levels.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS2,500

E.OOO

1,500

1,000

ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

1948

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL(NON FARM)

OTHER PRIVATE _^.

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL


2,000

1,500

I .OOO

1950

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1 939 monthly average1942 monthly average1944 monthly average ._1946 monthly average1947 monthly average1948 monthly average1949 monthly average1949: October...

November ,_ .December

1950: January _„FebruaryMarch _AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember.October2 _November 2

Total newconstruction

6831,173

4381,0001,3861,7981,8831, 9341,9852,0392,0682, 1272, 1672,2162,2402,2842,3192,3692,4082,4192,423

Private constructionTotal

private

366285182803

1,0941,3891,3501,3751,4281,4711,5061,6001,5791,6371,6741,7191,7721,8081,8241,8221,786

Residential(nonfarm)

22314368

335526715691752792842863956938991

1,0151,0551,0991, 1281, 1361,1101,047

Other

142142114469568674659623636629643644641646659664673680688712739

Federal,State, and

local l

317888256197291409532559557568562527588579566565547561584597637

1 Includes public residential construction.2 Preliminary estimates.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor

16


NEW HOUSING STARTSNew housing starts in October dropped 10 percent below the September level and, for the first time thisyear, were below the corresponding month of 1949. Credit restrictions probably contributed to the decline,

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

200THOUSANDS OF UNITS

200

SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

New nonfarm units startedlYiOUlll

JanuaryFebruary 1March _April .MayJune .. _JulyAugustSeptember _OctoberNovemberDecember

Total

Monthly average

1947

39 30042, 80056 00067, 10072 90077 20081 10086' 30093, 80094 00079, 70058, 800

849, 000

70 750

1948

53 50050, 10076 40099 500

100 30097, 80095 00086 70082, 30073 40063 70052, 900

931, 600

77, 600

1949

50, 00050, 40069, 40088, 30095 40095, 50096 10099, 000

102, 900104 30095, 50078, 300

1, 025, 100

85, 425

1950

78, 70082,900

117, 300133, 400149, 100144, 300144, 400

1 141, 0001115,0001 103, 000

* Preliminary estimates. Source; Department of Labor,

17


FOR NEW PLANTANDNonfarm plant and equipment expenditures have risen in each quarter of 1950. Businessmen reportedin November that in the first quarter of next year outlays would exceed those of any previous first quarterand show an increase of 30 percent over the first quarter of 1950.


ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES


••£v*/••:3

1939 1941 1948 1949 2 3 41948

:: TRANSPORTATION AND':>S:

fexELEGTRIG ANDUTILITIES

MANUFACTURINGAND

MINING

;i

1 2 3 41949

2 3 4I960

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND U, S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation]

Period

193919411945 _1948194919503

1949: First quarter .Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter

1950: First quarterSecond quarter _.Third quarter 3_Fourth quarter 3

1951 : First quarter 3 _

Total »

5?2008, 1906,630

19, 23018, 12018, 130

17, 84018, 64017, 48018, 520

14, 80017, 32018, 76021, 640

19, 240

Manufac-turing

1,9303,4003,2108,3407, 2507,950

7,4007,5206,7607,320

6,0807,4408,200

10, 080

8,760

Mining

380680440800740690

760760720720

600640720800

680

Transportation

Railroad

280560550

1,3201, 3501,140

1,4401,5201,2401,200

9201,2001, 1201,280

1,280

Other

280340320700520430

520560560480

320360480560

600

Electric andgas utilities

480710630

2,6803, 1403,220

2,7203,1203, 1603,560

2,6003,0403,2803,960

2,960

Commercialand miscel-

laneous *

1,8502,4901,4805,3905, 1204,700

5,0405,1605,0405,280

4,2404,6404,9204,960

4,920

1 Excludes agriculture.2 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.3 Revisions for actual third and anticipated fourth quarter of 1950 and first quarter of 1951 expenditures became available after the chart was prepared.NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the

latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal BeserveBoard estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data.

Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000*Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).

18


NEW CORPORATE INet proceeds from new security issues showed a large seasonal decline in 3rd quarter of the year. Aboutf of the total for financing expansion in and working capital- the remainder for retirement ofand stock.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3...0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS3,0

f . O

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[Millions of dollars]

Period

1939 quarterly average - ~1943 Quarterly average -~» - - -1946 quarterly average . ___ . . , _1947 quarterly average - •1948 quarterly average— - ~ .. . -1949 quarterly average1948' Third quarter - _ _ _ _ . -

Fourth, quarter - - _-. , - ~ ~1949' First quarter . . . - _ „ _

Second quarter . ~. , -Third quarter - -. ~-Fourth quarter .

1950: First quarter - --Second quarter - .Third quarter 2 -

Estimatednet

cecds

529287

1,6891, 6171, 7401?4901, 3212, 0511, 2102 ?4411,0091?2991,3982, 1931, 120

]

Total

8177

8201, 1481, 4821, 1511, 056I, 870

9701, 986

788861

1,0143, 275

742

3roposed

New money

Plant andequipment

4335

529852

1, 055931743

1, 469784

1?675669596777958577

of net proceed

Workingcapital

3942

291296428221314401186312120265237317165

i

Retirementof debt and

stock l

448210869469258338264182240456219438384918379

* Includes small amount for other purposes.3 Preliminary estimates.NOTs.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals ofSource: Securities and Exchange Commissions

19


orderSj inventories, all substantially.'

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

60TOTAL* AND

MONTHLY AVERAGE

I1.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

. X,,jf ** *'

TOTAL INVENTORIES*^"^

,LLLJJJ

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20MONTHLY AVERAGE

40 42 44 46 48

MONTHLY AVERAGE

42 44 46 48

•£• WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURIWC, AND RETA5L

I960 40 42 44 46 48

level. Manufacturer's new

RETAIL

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

^-INVENTORIES x

.• 'f .-...X

JLlJJjJjJ_LLL

y- SALES

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1

^—^-

1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11948 1949 - 1950

AVERAGE

DEPARTMENT STORES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

.. ~fES /\

INV

JJJLIlJ-LLLLL

^C^^^ENTORIES*^

1 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 I I

s</K /

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11948 1949 1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19391943..19451946..194719481949.1949: September ....

OctoberNovember - _December

1950: JanuaryFebruary.MarchApril.May ....JuneJulyAugust 7_September 7

October 7 _ _

Total business 1

Inven-tories f

8

Manufacturing

Inven-tories 2 Sales1 New

orders 4

Retail

Inven-tories * Sales •

Millions of dollars^ seasonally adjusted 4

20, 17231, 14330, 57142, 38950, 79456, 75651, 59452, 86152, 53552, 10551, 59452, 00351, 79652, 44852, 83753, 45654, 11753, 11954, 37456, 26358, 130

11, 10922, 37224, 18127, 55933, 57137, 02334, 88635, 99533, 59634, 40433, 50534, 24435, 30536, 59935, 64538, 652395 89641, 80545, 08541, 95041, 798

11,46520, 09818, 39024, 49828, 92032, 27628, 86529, 32028, 92328, 65628, 86529, 01428, 96129, 03729, 31529, 56229, 90429, 70629, 73630, 59431, 400

5, 10012.82212, 88312, 61715, 91817,81116, 66617, 62115, 79816, 22115, 75616,21616, 87717, 79717, 20619, 30919, 83820, 09222,61320, 96521, 200

(«)(8)(fl)

13, 69415, 62217, 50416, 10218, 17217, 15116, 86816, 00917, 03216, 86118, 81017, 18219, 09720, 66622, 04627, 13423, 581

* 24, 600

5,5327,3617, 543

11, 22613, 22114, 96913, 69814, 35514, 47514, 33613, 69813, 99813, 80014, 28214, 13814,41614, 72014, 12515, 07615, 79316, 548

3,5045,2776,3158,3589,909

10, 83710, 68210, 85610, 67810, 63010, 50310, 85511, 10111, 12511, 08011, 32711,69912, 70012, 68212, 13011,760

Department stores

Inven-tories 5 Sales *

1935-39=100, season-ally adjusted

102155166213255291270263270273271272279285286285276268284309328

106168207264286302285289276277293282280274292290298362335320292

1 Total business includes manufacturing, retail, and wholesale (not shownseparately in this table).

2 Book value, end of period.' Monthly average for year and total for month.4 Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonai variation.

1 Indeies computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retailbook value of inventories, end of period.

• Not available.* Preliminary estimates.

20 Department of and of Oovemors erf thi Federal Beserve


MERCHANDISE EXPORTSIn October, merchandise imports rose to a new high of $921 million, 67.percent above the 1949monthly average. As in August, they slightly exceeded exports, which remained virtually unchangedin October after having increased greatly in September.


1,200

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS,600

1936-38 1946 1947 1948 1949

SOURCES' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OP THE HAVY. COUHCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISEf

of

Period

1936—38 monthly average . . .. ....... ......1943 monthly average1946 monthly average . . - . . . .1947 monthly average .. - ... ... ...--.1948 monthly average1949 monthly average - .1 949 : September

October -November _ . . .December « . -

1950* January ..February . .March.. .April .. -..-.MayJune_ .Julv . . . . .... - ........ ..AugustSeptemberOctober 3

J

24?1,080

8491,2781, 0541SGG3

910853841944743770864806828876774763911904

Imports f

207282410480594555530557593605623600664583659685707820857921

Kxcess ofexports

4079843979946144837929624833912017020022316919167

— 575317

1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas,2 Recorded general merchandise imports.8 Data became available after chart was prepared.NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.

21


POWER

The increase of over $IO'/4 billion (annual In national income 2nd and 3rd quarters was thelargest quarterly gain, dollar-wise, on record. Percentage-wise, the increase was more than 4l/2 percent,or about the same as between the first two quarters of 1948.


BILLIONS OF DOLL

:;•:•::;•;:::;:::CORPORATE PROFITS AND:'•'-•-•rfrW:!:;:;INVENTORY VALUATION:':'

195!

SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of

Period

1939 ~-_1944 _ - _ _1946 _ _ . _1947 -19481949 - _

1949: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter

1950: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter

Totalnationalincome

72. 5183.8180.3198.7223.5216.8

Compensa-tion of

employees

47,8121. 2117. 1

: 128, 0140. 2140.6

Proprietors1

(business,professional^

farm)

income

14735.542. 042. 447.341.7

Net

4. 23. )2. 93, 54 1

. 4.7

Corporate profits and inventoryvaluation adjustment

5.824018.324 731.829.9

Profitsbeforetaxes

6.524323. 530.533.927.6

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-0.7-».3

-5.2-5.8-2.0+ 2.2


218. 8217. 8216. 7214 2

216. 9229. 1

1 239. 7

141. 5140.5140.0140. 2

142. 3147. 9155. 2

43.842. 240. 140.7

41.541. 245.4

464 74848

5.05.05.0

28. 830. 431.828.4

28.235. 0

*34 1

28. 326.4

i 28.227. 6

29. 237. 4

!42.0

+.5+ 3.9+3.7+.8

-1.0-2.3-7.9

i Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as notecQ.

22


CORPORATE PROFITSEstimated corporate profits for both 2nd and 3rd quarters of I960 have been revised upward by about$2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rates). Despite the high corporate tax liability, at an annual rateof $17.6 billion in 3rd quarter, 67 percent higher than in 1949, profits after taxes were also running atan all-time high. Both dividends and undistributed profits benefited in the increase.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS40

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED^

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {EXCEPT AS NOTED)


Period

193919441946194719481949

1949: First quarter. .Second quarterThird quarterFourth quarter

1950: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter * _ _ _ _

Corporateprofits

before

6.524. 323.530.533.927.6

Corporatetax

liability

1.513. 59.6

11. 913.010. 6

Corporate profits after

Total

5.010.813. 918.520.917.0

Dividendpayments

3.84.75.86.67.57.8

Undistributedprofits

1.26. 18. 1

12.013.49.2


28.326.428. 227. 6

29. 237.442.0

10.910.010.810. 6

12. 015. 117.6

17.416.417. 316.9

17.222.224.4

7.97.77.48.2

8. 18.29. 4

9.58.7

10.08.7

9. 114.015.0

1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 22 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation

adjustmentDetail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

23


IMCOMEPersonal income continued to increase in October due primarily to further advances in wages and salariesand a gain in farm income. Transfer payments also rose as Old Age and Survisors1 Insurance benefits wereincreased under the new Social Security Act. Dividends dropped.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ESS, PROFESSIONAL, AND RENTAL INCOME

^

;•;-;• ".-FARM PROPRIETORS'INCOME.>>>':><

!939 1944 1348 1949 I960 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

SOURCE:'DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.


Period

1939194419471948 . _ .1949

1949: SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarch.April _MayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober2

Total per-sonal income

72. 6165.9191. 0209. 5206. 1

Labor income(salaries,

wages, andother labor

income)

45.6116. 2122. 3135. 0134.9

Proprietors' income

Farm

4.511.815. 617.713.4

Business,professional,and rental

income

10.223.726.829.628.3

Dividendsand personal

interest

9.210.614.516. 117.2

Transferpayments

3.03.6

11.811.212.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted203.4202. 4205. 7208.4214. 6215. 4219.3213. 8214. 5217. 1220.7225.4228.7230. 1

134. 6133.3134.4136. 0135.2134. 5136. 9138.6141. 1143.6145. 1148.9151.2153. 4

11. 612. 113. 612. 714.612. 311.411.012. 112. 113.613.713.313. 9

27.727.728. 127.928.928. 728. 828.829.430. 231.932.431.731.7

17.017.217.218.917. 517. 7.18. 018.217.817.817.818.421.119. 1

12.612. 112.412.9

*18.4122. 2124.2i 17.2114. 11 13. 412.312.011.412.0

24

1 Inchides veterans' insurance dividend. During first quarter, the payment was at annual rate of $8.5 billion (or $2.1 billion, quarterly total)and during second quarter at $2.0 billion (or $502 million, quarterly total).2 Preliminary estimates.

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Souree: Department of Commerce.


CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGConsumption expenditures rose more rapidly than incomes in 3rd quarter, resulting in a drop in saving.

SILL10NS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS2 S O

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

OF ECONOMIC ftOVISERS

Period

1939-194119421944.19461947-19481949.

1949:

1950:

First quarterSecond quarter - -Third quarterFourth quarter

First quarterSecond quarter .Third quarter _ _

Disposablepersonalincome l

Less: Personalconsumptionexpenditures

Equals: Per-sonal net

saving

Billions of dollars70.292.0

116.7147.0158. 9169. 5188.4187.4

67.582.391.2

111. 6146. 9165. 6177. 4178.8

2. 79.8

25. 635. 412. 03. 9

10. 98. 6

Net saving aspercent of dis-posable income

3.810.721.924. 17.62. 35.84. 6

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted189. 9188.2185. 1186.8

197. 5195.6204.7

177.4178.4179.0180. 6

182.4185.2198.4

12. 59. 86.26.2

15. 010. 46.4

6. 65.23.33.3

7.65.33. 1

*Income less taxes.NotB .—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Souree; Dtpartment of Commerce.

25


PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURESConsumption expenditures rose $13 billion (annual rate) from 2nd to 3rd quarter. Expenditures for

'durable goods 25 percent above the high levels of first: half of this year. Expenditures fornondurable goods and services also reached new highs.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUS

TOTAL EXPENDITURES

1939 1944 1948 1949 1950

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE


Period

1939-1944_1946-1947-1948.1949-

1949:

1950:

First quarter..Second quarterThird quarter .Fourth quarterFirst quarterSecond quarterThird quarter

Personal consumption expenditures

Total

67.5111.6146.9165.6177.4178.8

Nondurablegoods

35.367. 185. 895. 1

100.998.5

Durablegoods

6. 77. 1

16.621.422. 923.8

Services

25.537.444. 549. 153.756.4


177.4178.4179.0180. 6182.4185.2198.4

99.499.297.697.997.499.3

104.9

22.423.024.725.326. 926.733. 5

55.656.256. 657.458. 159.259.9

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Department of Commerce.

26


PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME*Per capita disposable income gained l-| percent in terms of purchasing power between the 2nd and 3rdquarters.

DOLLARS1,600

DOLLARS1,600

S.EOO

ANNUAL AVERAGES

1949 DOLLARS-*'

I, 200

CURRENT DOLLARS

1948

2 31949

2 3I960

I 21951

SOURCES : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

1939 -_ „1941 _ . _1942 . . .. . . . .1944 . .1946 ._ ,..19471948 ..1949

1949: First quarter .* .Second quarter . .Third quarter „ _ _Fourth quarter..

1950: First quarter „ _Second quarter..Third quarter

Per capita disposable personalincome l

Currentdollars

$536691867

1,0651,1251,1771,2851,256

1949 dollars 2

$9121, 1101,2471,3881,3331,2481,2701, 256

Annual rates, seasonallyadjusted

$1, 2801,2641,2371,243

1,3091,2911.345

$1, 2751,2611,2391, 249

1,3271,2941,314

Consumers *price index2

1949 = 100

58.862. 269.576.784.494.3

101. 2100.0

Not adjustedfor seasonal

variation

100. 4100.299. 999.5

98.699. 8

102.4

i Income less taxes.* Current dollars dMded by the consumers' price index on the base 1949=100.1 The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-Febraary 1947,

adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 3.Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

This

27


FARM INCOMEFarm income in October was 6 percent higher than in October 1949. With prices paid alsoincreasing 6 percent, the purchasing power of farm income was about the same as in 1949.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MONTHLY AVERAGE

1949 DOLLARS*

I I I I I ' 1 I

BILLIONS OP DOLkAJtt4

1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 4? 48 49 50

•INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING**FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 monthly average1941 monthly average -1942 monthly average . - - - -1944 monthly average - - - - - -1946 monthly average - - -1947 monthly average - - - - - - - -1948 monthly average - -1949 monthly average . - -1949: September ..

OctoberNovember-.December ,.

1950: January . .. ......February . . . . - -March ..April .Mav _^«j ,June _July _AugustSeptember *» .October *.. _ .

Farm income(millions of

currentdollars) »

724981

1,3391,7642, 1362,5272,5672,3592,9293,3662,905

%2, 4732,2541, 6141,6741,5941,8191,8592,3562,5512,9133,580

Prices paid byfarmers (incl.interest, taxes,

and wage rates)1949= 100 2

495361738396

10410099989898

10099

100100102102102103104104

Farm income(millions of

1949 dollars) »

1,4781,8512, 1952,4162.5732,6322,4682,3592,9593,4352,9642,5232,2541,6301,6741,5941,7831,8232,3102,4772,8013,442

28

1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1949=100.s Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by fanners, interest, taxes, and wage rates, 1949»100.* Preliminary estimates.Source: Department of Agriculture.


CONSUMER CREDITConsumer credit expanded slightly in October. Instalment credit, which had paced the growth in precedingmonths, rose only $42 million, largely because of the impact of Regulation W and th« decline inanticipatory buying. The increase in instalment credit was the smallest since the usual January decline.



SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


End of period

193919431946 -194719481949.1949: September .

October . _ _NovemberDecember. .

1950: JanuaryFebruary ... ....MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctober 2 1

Totalconsumer

creditoutstanding

7,0314,6008,677

11,86214, 36616, 80914, 95715, 33615, 88416, 809

16, 36816, 15916, 33816, 63917, 07717, 65118, 29518, 84219,31519, 366

Instalment credit

Total

4,4242,0014,0006,4348,600

10, 8909,899

10, 16610,44110, 890

10, 83610, 88411,07711,32211,66712, 10512, 59813, 00913, 33713. 379

Automobilesale

credit

1,267175544

1,1511,9613, 1442,8762,9863,0853, 144

3, 1793,2563,3553,4703,6003,7903, 9944,1074,2134,231

Other salecredit and

loans

3, 1571,8263,4565,2836,6397,7467,0237,1807,3567, 746

7,6577,6287,7227,8528,0678,3158,6048,9029, 1249,148

Chargeaccounts

1,5441,4983,0543,6123,8543,9093, 1233, 1973,4543,909

3,5063,2333,2113,2413,2903,3923,5273,6363,7413,703

Otherconsumercredit *

1,0631,1011,6231,8161,9122,0101,9351,9731,9892,010

2,0262,0422,0502,0762,1202, 1542,1702,1972, 2372.284

i Other consumer credit includes single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. The single-paymentloan item was revised in November to exclude loans over $3,000. See Federal Eeserve Bulletin for November 1950, pages 1465-6. 3 Preliminary estimates

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. OQ


MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTSCommercial bank loans expanded in October but at a much lower rate than in September. There was nochange in investment total.



1939 1943 1943 1949 J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J j A S O N O

END OF YEAR 1948 1949 1950

END OF MONTH

SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, all commercial banks]

End of period

...1945- . ... .1947. -1948-1949 ... - .. __1949: September

October . _November . ..December

1950: JanuaryFebruaryMarch .AprilMay . . .June-JulyAugust . .September .October1

m_.A_ilotailoans and

investments

40.7124. 0116.3114. 3120.2118. 5119. 5119. 7120.2121.2120.6120.3120. 3121.2121. 8122. 3123.3123.7124 5

Bank loans

17.226. 138. 142.543.041.741.842.743.042.943. 143. 743. 844. 144. 846.047.349.049.9

Total

23.497.978.271.877.276.877.777.077.278. 377.576.676.577. 177.076.376.074.674.6

InvestmentsU.S.

Governmentsecurities

16.390.669.262.667.066. 767.666.967. 068.067.165.865.566.165. 865.064. 262. 5

• . 62.5

Othersecurities

7.17.39.09.2

10.210.210. 110. 110. 210.310.410.811.011. 011.211.411.812. 112.1

* Preliminary estimates.NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserre System.

30


MONEY SUPPLYThe privately-held money supply increased $ 1.3 billion during October, Demand deposits rose sharply. Thedecline in time deposits, that started in July, subsided.



TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY

(EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS)

1939 1943 1948 1949

END OF YEAR

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

1949

END OF MONTH

1950


End of period

1939 .. _1943 . :...1946 -1947 _1948- -19491949 : September

OctoberNovemberDecember . .. .

1950: JanuaryFebruary . ....March .. .. - -AprilMay - -

. June - - -July

, August'September ... --- October 3 » -

Total pri-vately-held

money supply

63.3112.4164.0170.0169. 1169. 8166. 3167. 7168. 1169.8169.7168. 2167. 1168. 4169.2170. 0170. 2171. 0171.7173. 0

Currencyoutsidebanks

6. 418.826. 726. 526. 125.424. 924. 925. I25.424. 524. 724.624.624. 725. 224. 424. 524.524.6

Adjusteddemand

deposits *

29. 860. 883. 387. 185. 585. 883. 184 385. 085. 886.484. 583. 384.385.085. 086. 587. 488. 189.4

Timedeposits *

27. 132. 754. 056. 457. 558 658 458 458 058 658. 759 059 359. 559 559. 759. 459 159. 059. 0

i Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U, S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.* Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.s Preliminary estimates.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

31


FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROMAND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLICIn 3rd quarter of I960, cash payments to the public were $1.1 billion smaller than receipts. In thecorresponding quarter of 1949 payments exceeded receipts by $386 million.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

XCASH RECEIPTS

_ CASH PAYMENTS

J,

»

2 IQ47 3 4 2 IQ/S.Q 3 4 2 ,949 3 4

''/'.

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

LJ *"**'EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS

i%w^ m mr u I

1 " PI .

11949 '

C A L E N D A R Y E A R S

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.


Calendar years

Calendar year total:1946 .1947 .19481949

Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:1947: Third quarter .. _ _

Fourth quarter

1948: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter » „ _ . .-Fourth quarter

1949: First quarterSecond quarterThird quarter _.Fourth quarter -

1950: First quarter...Second quarter «,Third quarter *_

Federal cashreceipts from

the public

41, 45144, 28244, 92241, 346

10, 2209,869

15, 03710, 23910, 0859,560

13, 1228,814

10, 1439,267

12, 2359,303

10, 494

Federal cashpayments tothe public

41, 39938, 61636, 89742, 642

10, 2888,536

8,6419,0338,735

10, 488

9,96411, 38910, 52810, 762

10, 76011, 1059,351

Excess of re-ceipts (+) orpayments (— )

4-524-5, 66648,027-1,295

-674-1,332

4-6, 399+ 1,205+ 1,349

-926

+ 3, 159-2, 574

-386-1,495

+ 1,475-1,803+ 1,143

1 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

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