economic indicators: august 1983 - fraserjoint resolution [sj. res. s5] to print the monthly...

98th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

AUGUST 1983

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1983

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, ChairmanLEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman

SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESGILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)DAN LUNGREN (California)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)

BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

MARTIN FELDSTEIN, ChairmanWILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member

WILLIAM POOLE, Member

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. S5]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy($535 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreignmailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

11


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1983, gross national product rose $98.5 billion or 13.0percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 9.2 percent (annual rate) and theimplicit price deflator rose at a 3.5 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)3,400

3,200

3,000

2,800

2,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,400

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

GNP

. IN CURRENT DOLLARS.

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

\GNP

IN 1972 DOLLARS

i I I1980 1981 1982

SCALE)3,400

3,200

3,000

2,800

2,600

2.400

2,200

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1983

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: UIIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r

Grossnationalproduct

1,077.61,185.91,326.41,434.21,549.21,718.01,918.32,163.92,417.82,631.72,954.13,073.0

3,004.93,032.2

3,021.43,070.23,090.73,109.6

3,171.53,270.0

Personalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4

1,084.31,204.41,346.51,507.21,668.11,857.21,991.9

1,886.11,904.1

1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9

2,073.02,148.4

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

166.4195.0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5

495.8476.2

422.9432.5425.3377.4

404.1451.8

Exports ar

Netexports

4.1.7

14.213.426.813.8

-4.0-1.113.223.926.317.4

22.829.2

29.933.3

.95.6

17.0-12.3

id imports ofservices

Exports

68.877.5

109.6146.2154.9170.9182.7218.7281.4338.8368.8347.6

367.5371.0

358.4364.5346.0321.6

326.9322.8

goods and

Imports

64.776.795.4

132.8128.1157.1186.7219.8268.1314.8342.5330.2

344.7341.7

328.5331.2345.0316.1

309.9335.1

Total

234.9253.1270.4304.1339.9362.1393.8431.9474.4537.8595.7649.2

600.3622.8

629.8631.6655.7679.7

677.4682.1

Govengoc

96.2101.7102.0111.0122.7129.2143.4153.6168.3197.0229.2258.7

232.4248.5

249.7244.1261.7279.2

273.5272.7

iment purchids and senn

Federal

Nationaldefense

70.273.172.877.083.086.092.8

100.3111.8131.2154.0179.4

154.9166.7

168.1175.2183.6190.8

194.4199.9

ises ofces

Non-defense

26.028.529.133.939.743.250.653.356.565.975.279.3

77.581.8

81.768.978.188.5

79.172.8

State andlocal

138.7151.4168.5193.1217.2232.9250.4278.3306.0340.8366.5390.5

367.9374.3

380.0387.5394.0400.5

404.0409.4

rmalsales

1,070.01,175.71,307.91,420.11,556.11,706.21,895.32,137.42,403.52,641.52,935.63,097.5

2,971.43,017.9

3,047.13,081.43,095.63,165.9

3,210.93,281.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IHIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r


,122.4,185.9,254.3,246.3,231.6,298.2,369.7,438.6,479.4

1,475.01,513.81,485.4

1,525.81,506.9

1,485.81,489.31,485.71,480.7

1,490.11,523.4

Personalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

696.8737.1767.9762.8779.4823.1864.3903.2927.6931.8956.8970.2

962.9955.7

961.4968.8971.0979.6

986.71,009.9

Gdome

Nonresi-dentialfixed

112.2121.0138.1135.7119.3125.6140.3158.3169.9165.8174.4166.1

177.0176.3

173.6167.1163.3160.5

159.9162.3

ross privatestic investi

Residen-tial fixed

53.763.862.348.242.251.260.762.459.147.144.737.8

43.139.4

36.337.836.540.6

45.552.4

enent

Changein

businessinven-tories

8.110.217.211.6

-6.77.8

13.316.07.3

-4.48.5

-9.4

16.16.0

-10.2-3.4-1.3

-22.7

-15.44.0

IX]a

Netexports

1.6.7

15.527.832.225.422.024.037.250.343.028.9

39.839.9

35.233.424.023.0

20.511.0

JOTtS Of gO

aid services

Ixports

71.077.597.3

108.5103.5110.1112.9126.7146.2159.1159.7147.3

159.0158.7

151.8154.5146.4136.5

137.3134.4

ods

Imports

69.376.781.880.771.484.790.9

102.7109.0108.8116.7118.4

119.1118.8

116.6121.1122.4113.5

116.8123.4

Total

250.1253.1253.3260.3265.2265.2269.2274.6278.3284.3286.5291.8

286.8289.6

289.4285.8292.2299.7

292.9291.9

GoverngOO(

Total

103.7101.795.996.697.496.8

100.4100.3102.1106.4110.4116.6

111.8114.5

114.5110.3116.9124.4

118.4117.6

ment purchIs and sen>

Federal

Nationaldefense

73.168.366.966.464.965.465.767.470.073.678.8

74.475.7

75.577.880.481.4

82.784.7

ases ofices

Non-defense

28.527.629.731.031.835.034.734.836.436.837.8

37.438.7

39.132.536.543.0

35.732.9

Stateand local

146.4151.4157.4163.6167.8168.4168.8174.3176.2177.9176.1175.2

175.0175.1

174.9175.4175.3175.2

174.5174.3

Finalsales

1,114.31,175.71,237.11,234.71,238.41,290.41,356.41,422.61,472.21,479.41,505.31,494.8

1,509.71,500.9

1,495.91,492.71,487.01,503.4

1,505.51,527.4


IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: HIIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r


96.01100.00105.75115.08125.79132.34140.05150.42163.42178.42195.14206.88

196.94201.22

203.36206.15208.03210.00

212.83214.66

Total

96.5100.0105.7116.4125.3131.7139.3149.1162.5179.0194.1205.3

195.9199.2

201.7203.6206.9209.0

210.1212.7

Personal cexpen

Durablegoods

99.0100.0101.7108.2117.3123.9129.2136.4145.0156.2167.3174.8

169.3171.2

172.9174.2176.1176.1

177.3177.9

onsumptionditures

Nondur-able

goods

96.6100.0108.5123.4132.5137.2143.6153.4169.9188.1202.5209.0

203.8205.5

206.8207.6210.2211.2

210.6213.3

Services

95.6100.0104.7113.0121.6129.6139.3150.0162.3178.8195.8211.6

197.9202.5

206.3209.4213.4217.2

219.8223.6

Grossdomestic i

Nonresi-dentialfixed

96.2100.0103.8115.4132.2138.6146.3157.2170.8186.2201.9209.7

203.7208.5

208.1211.1209.6209.9

207.7207.0

privatenvestment

Residen-tial fixed

94.8100.0109.1120.3131.0140.7158.0178.3200.5218.5233.5240.2

235.7239.2

240.8240.9240.9238.4

244.9243.9

Exports amgoods am

Ixports

97.0100.0112.7134.8149.6155.3161.9172.6192.5212.9230.8236.0

231.2233.8

236.1236.0236.3235.6

238.0240.1

i imports of1 services

Imports

93.3100.0116.7164.6179.6185.6205.5214.1246.1289.4293.4278.9

289.4287.7

281.8273.6281.8278.5

265.4271.5

Gove

Total

92.7100.0106.3114.9126.0133.5142.8153.1164.8185.2207.7222.0

207.9217.0

218.0221.3223.8224.4

230.9232.0

rmnent pureser

Federal

Nationaldefense

100.0106.6115.1124.9132.4141.9152.7166.0187.5209.3227.7

208.3220.0

222.7225.1228.3234.3

234.9236.1

liases of gocsices

Non-defense

100.0105.6114.2128.2135.7144.6153.8162.5180.8204.5210.0

207.0211.2

209.1212.3213.9205.7

221.7221.5

ds and

Stateand local

94.7100.0107.0118.0129.4138.3148.4159.7173.7191.5208.1222.9

210.2213.8

217.3220.9224.7228.5

231.6234.9



CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r

Currentdollars

8.610.111.88.18.0

10.911.712.811.78.8

12.24.0

13.33.7

-1.46.62.72.5

8.213.0

Gro

Constant(1972)dollars

3.45.75.8

^.6-1.2

5.45.55.02.8

__.32.61.9

3.6-4.9

5.51.0

-1.01.3

2.69.2

ss national pro

Implicitprice

deflator

5.04.25.88.89.35.25.87.48.69.29.46.0

9.49.0

4.35.63.73.8

5.53.5

duct

Chain priceindex

4.94.16.09.19.25.76.17.68.98.99.46.5

9.08.2

5.65.25.95.0

3.64.4

Fixed-weighted

price index(1972

weights)

4.84.06.09.49.15.86.37.89.59.89.56.4

8.98.4

5.34.75.94.7

3.44.4

Currentdollars

8.19.6

10.29.49.9

11.011.111.811.910.711.37.3

11.43.9

7.57.27.57.8

5.215.4

Personal

Constant(1972)dollars

3.75.84.2-.72.25.65.04.52.7.5

2.71.4

3.5-3.0

2.43.1

.93.6

2.99.7

3onsumption es

Implicitprice

deflator

4.33.75.7

10.17.65.15.87.09.0

10.28.45.8

7.77.0

5.04.06.54.1

2.25.1

tpenditures

Chain priceindex

4.33.66.1

10.47.75.36.07.39.3

10.79.05.9

7.87.0

5.23.96.45.1

2.35.0

Fixed-weighted

price index(1972

weights)

4.23.56.1

10.47.85.36.27.49.7

11.19.25.7

7.56.8

4.83.56.75.1

1.65.2

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, ANDPROFITS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: InmIV

1982: InmIV

1983: III*

Gross dproduct of i

corporate(billions o

Currentdollars

609.9678.0759.4818.9890.0

1,001.31,128.41,276.21,416.81,540.71,739.91,776.7

1,683.31,718.81,778.61,778.9

1,764.91,780.21,786.81,775.0

1,817.61,890.7

omesticlonfinancialbusiness

f dollars)

1972dollars

626.8678.0731.9708.2694.2745.5795.8846.3876.1859.5887.5857.7

883.7888.7898.6878.9

864.3860.5859.5846.4

856.0883.5

Totalcost andprofit 2

0.9731.0001.0381.1561.2821.3431.4181.5081.6171.7931.9602.072

1.9051.9341.9792.024

2.0422.0692.0792.097

2.1232.140

Cun

Capitalconsump-

tionallowances

withcapital

consump-tion

adjustment

0.091.092.093.112.137.141.145.155.171.198.217.245

.207

.213

.217

.229

.236

.242

.247

.254

.252

.245

ent-dollar co

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.113.113.114.127.140.141.141.144.149.172.199.209

.195

.198

.199

.204

.204

.207

.209

.215

.218

.224

st and profit

Compen-sation ofemploy-

0.641.659.692.786.837.878.928.998

1.0941.2181.3021.397

1.2721.2901.3061.342

1.3741.3941.4031.419

1.4281.419

per unit of

Netinterest

0.029.028.031.042.044.040.040.044.050.065.074.076

.064

.070

.081

.080

.080

.079

.072

.073

.070

.066

output (dollai

Corporatevaluation a

Total

0.099.107.107.090.124.144.163.168.154.140.169.145

.168

.163

.177

.169

.148

.147

.148

.135

.156

.186

s)1

profits withnd capital ccadjustments

Profitstax

liability

0.047.049.055.059.059.071.075.079.079.078.074.048

.081

.071

.075

.068

.053

.051

.049

.040

.049

.061

inventorynsumption

Profitsaftertax4

0.052.058.053.030.065.073.088.089.075.062.095.097

.086

.092

.102

.101

.095

.096

.099

.095

.108

.124

Outputper hour

of allemploy-

ees (1972dollars)

7.4507.6647.8497.5557.7748.0028.1448.2168.2018.1268.3328.373

8.2908.3198.3928.323

8.3428.3308.4098.421

8.4928.605

Compen-sation per

hour ofall

employ-ees

(dollars)

4.7785.0525.4295.9376.5077.0247.5588.1988.9699.894

10.85011.700

10.54110.73010.95711.171

11.46311.61411.79511.952

12.12612.212

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol-lars.

2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withthe decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: In...fflIV

1983: Inr

Nationalincome

871.5963.6

1,086.21,160.71,239.41,379.21,550.51,760.31,966.72,116.62,373.02,450.4

2,423.42,435.6

2,419.72,448.92,458.92,474.0

2,528.52,612.0

Compensa-tion of

employees *

652.2718.0801.3877.5931.4,036.3,152.1,301.1,458.1,599.6,769.2,865.7

1,791.71,815.6

1,834.21,859.91,879.51,889.0

1,923.71,968.8

Proprietors'inventory vs

capital coiadjust

Farm

15.018.732.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5

35.031.3

27.416.815.826.0

22.223.6

income withiluation andisumptionments

Nonfarm

54.458.161.062.265.475.084.892.2

100.295.689.787.4

88.585.8

83.788.187.890.2

98.4106.1

Rentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjustment

20.221.022.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9

42.745.6

47.449.050.952.3

54.154.8

Corporate p

Total

83.296.6

108.394.9

110.5138.1167.3192.4194.8175.4192.3164.8

197.6192.0

162.0166.8168.5161.9

181.8214.7

rofits with inv

Profits \*adjustmc

const

Total

82.094.0

105.696.7

120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9

208.3201.5

167.7170.3168.3157.2

168.0189.3

sntory valuatioadjustments

ith inventory •<;nt and withouimption adjust

Profits

86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2

227.7217.2

173.2178.8177.3167.5

169.7199.1

n and capital

valuationt capitaltnent

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-4.6-6.6

-20.040.0

-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4

-19.4-15.7

-5.5-8.5-9.0

-10.3

-1.7-9.8

3onsumption

Capitalconsump-

adjustment

1.32.72.71.8

-10.1-13.5-11.3-12.7-14.8-16.3-11.0-1.1

-10.7-9.5

-5.6-3.5

.14.7

13.925.4

Netinterest

46.551.260.276.184.587.2

102.5121.7153.8192.6249.9261.1

268.0265.3

265.0268.3256.4254.7

248.3244.0

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Iconomic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979...198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: InmIV

1983: Inr.

Totalpersonalconsump-

tionexpendi-

tures

672.2737.1812.0888.1976.4

1,084.31,204.41,346.51,507.21,668.11,857.21,991.9

1,886.11,904.1

1,938.91,972.82,008.82,046.9

2,073.02,148.4

Totaldurablegoods

97.2111.1123.3121.5132.2156.8178.2200.2213.4214.7236.1244.5

243.5230.8

239.4242.9243.4252.1

258.5278.0

Durabh

Motorvehicles

andparts

45.452.457.150.455.872.684.895.796.690.7

101.6109.9

107.796.5

106.4107.6109.4116.1

118.4134.6

3 goods

Furni-ture andhouse-hold

equip-ment

37.241.747.150.653.559.165.772.881.886.393.393.5

93.893.4

91.793.993.594.9

97.3100.4

Other

14.616.919.220.522.925.227.731.735.137.741.241.1

42.040.9

41.341.440.5

• 41.0

42.943.0

Totalnondur-

ablegoods

278.8300.6333.4373.4407.3441.7478.8528.2600.0668.8733.9761.0

741.1747.7

749.7754.7766.6773.0

777.1798.2

No

Food

144.2154.9172.1193.7213.6230.6249.8275.9311.6345.1375.9396.9

378.9383.2

388.1394.7400.4404.5

411.7418.3

[idurable go

Clothingand

shoes

50.655.461.464.869.675.382.692.499.1

104.6115.3119.0

116.8117.2

118.4119.0119.2119.6

120.0126.6

ods

Gasolineand oil

23.925.428.636.640.444.048.151.266.684.894.691.5

95.195.6

94.089.691.391.1

87.390.3

Other

60.164.971.278.283.791.998.2

108.8122.8134.3148.1153.5

150.2151.7

149.2151.5155.6157.9

158.1163.1

Services

296.2325.3355.2393.2437.0485.7547.4618.0693.7784.5887.1986.4

901.5925.6

949.7975.2998.9

1,021.8

1,037.41,072.2

Retail salpasseng

(millions

Domes-tics

8.79.39.67.47.08.59.09.28.26.66.25.8

6.85.1

5.85.75.66.0

6.16.9

es of newer carsof units)

Imports

1.61.61.81.41.61.52.12.02.32.42.32.2

2.22.2

2.22.02.22.5

2.32.3



SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $15.5 billion (annual rate) in July, following a rise of $13.3 billion in June. Wages andsalaries rose $12.2 billion in July, compared with a rise of $8.9 billion in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

160

_ A-..—•»

1975

-t.«.«•"•**"** WAGE AND SALARY

1976 1977

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

OTHER INCOME

1978

TRANSFERPAYMENTS

\ ,

i?n I i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i I i I I i I i I I I i i I I I I I i I I i I I I I I I I I i i t I t i I I I I I I i i I i i I I I I I i i I I I I i t i I i I i i i I 1201979 1980 1981

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

160

1982 1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1973 ..197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprr

May r

June r

July"

Totalpersonalincome

1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6

2,589.82,586.72,597.42,617.82,633.12,645.0

2,652.62,650.52,670.12,689.12,722.32,735.62,751.0

salarydisburse-ments ^

702.7765.7806.4889.9983.2

1,106.31,237.61,356.71,493.21,568.1

1,578.91,579.21,581.21,583.11,583.11,591.8

1,608.91,606.31,616.81,632.11,652.21,661.11,673.3

Other laborincome * 2

48.855.864.575.989.4

102.5114.9128.0143.5156.6

157.4158.1159.1159.7160.4161.2

162.6164.2166.0168.1170.1172.2174.3

Proprietors

Farm

32.826.524.619.119.126.331.921.830.521.5

15.014.118.323.828.126.1

22.921.322.322.324.724.022.9

' income 3

Nonfarm

61.062.265.475.084.892.2

100.295.689.787.4

87.787.588.389.189.092.5

96.797.8

100.8103.1106.6108.5109.3

Kentalincome ofpersons 4

22.623.523.023.524.826.627.931.541.449.9

50.550.851.452.852.951.0

53.854.154.354.654.855.055.3

Personaldividendincome

26.529.129.936.539.645.350.856.862.866.4

65.966.566.867.468.068.3

68.768.968.969.069.469.570.2

Personalinterestincome

93.9112.4123.2132.5152.8179.4218.7266.0341.3366.2

368.2363.9362.2361.7363.3364.3

360.0356.0355.7355.0356.6358.4360.2

Transferpay-

ments 5

119.5141.2178.3194.3207.9223.8250.3297.6337.2374.5

378.9379.2383.1392.9401.0403.0

395.4398.1402.0402.7406.7406.4405.7

Less:Personal

contributionsfor socialinsurance

42.647.950.455.561.169.881.188.7

104.6112.0

112.7112.8112.8112.8112.7113.1

116.6116.2116.8117.6118.8119.5120.1

Nonfarmpersonalincome 6

1,023.71,131.8,229.1,359.3,506.5,689.7,899.3

2,119.52,377.02,527.6

2,545.22,543.12,549.72,564.52,575.52,589.4

2,600.22,599.72,618.42,636.12,668.22,682.12,698.5

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.

* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen'scompensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.

3 With inventor}' valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,

and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to revised estimates, real per capita disposable income rose in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,6002,4002,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,600

3,0001975 1983

3,000

r SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: HIIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r

Personalincome

868.4951.4

1,065.21,168.61,265.01,391.21,540.41,732.71,951.22,165.32,435.02,578.6

2,490.92,516.6

2,528.12,563.22,591.32,632.0

2,657.72,715.7

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

B

116.7141.0150.7170.2168.9196.8226.4258.7301.0336.5387.4402.1

398.9396.1

400.2404.2399.8404.1

401.8412.7

Equals:Disposablepersonalincome

illions of doll

751.8810.3914.5998.3

1,096.11,194.41,314.01,474.01,650.21,828.92,047.62,176.5

2,092.02,120.5

2,127.92,159.02,191.52,227.8

2,255.92,303.0

Less:Personaloutlays 1

ars

691.1757.7835.5913.2,001.8,111.9,236.0,384.6,553.5,718.7,912.4

2,051.1

Seas

1,942.31,961.5

1,997.02,031.92,068.42,107.0

2,134.22,210.8

Iquals:Personalsaving

60.752.679.085.194.382.578.089.496.7

110.2135.3125.4

anally adju

149.7159.0

130.8127.1123.0120.8

121.792.2

Percdisposable

inct

Currentdollars

3,6203,8604,3154,6675,0755,4775,9656,6217,3318,0328,9069,377

sted annual

9,0889,188

9,1999,3159,4309,562

9,6619,842

apitapersonal

>me

1972dollars

Do

3,7523,8604,0804,0094,0514,1584,2804,4414,5124,4874,5874,567

rates

4,6404,612

4,5624,5744,5584,576

4,5994,626

Per capitsconsulexpen

Currentdollars

lars

3,2373,5113,8314,1524,5214,9725,4686,0486,6957,3268,0788,581

8,1948,250

8,3828,5118,6448,785

8,8789,182

i personalnptionJitures

1972dollars

3,3553,5113,6233,5663,6093,7743,9244,0574,1214,0924,1624,180

4,1834,141

4,1564,1804,1784,204

4,2264,316

Percentchange inreal percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Per

2.42.95.71.71.02.62.93.81.6

-.62.2

-.4

7.8-2.4

-4.31.1

-1.41.6

2.02.4

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

cent

8.16.58.68.58.66.95.96.15.96.06.65.8

7.27.5

6.15.95.65.4

5.44.0

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

207,692209,924211,939213,898215,981218,086220,289222,629225,106227,694229,916232,118

230,187230,797

231,304231,790232,387232,990

233,501233,982

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averagesfor the period.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the second quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $0.5 billion (annual rate)and net farm income rose $1.6 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)200

160


160

120

100

80

60

40

120

100

80

60

40

ROSS FARM INCOME

20

NET FARM INCOME -

/N%

% ii

20

10 I I I i i I i i i

V

I I I I I I I I 101975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1981: I r

TLr.m r

IV r.

1982: I r

nr.m r

IVr.

1983: I r

np

Total !

100.6102.9108.7127.2150.4150.1167.1162.2

161.2165.1172.2169.7

168.4158.5155.9165.8

161.4161.9

(

Cas

Total

88.995.496.2

112.9131.8140.5142.3144.6

141.9138.5145.7143.0

147.6142.0142.3146.3

142.1141.3

In

JTOSS farm incom

h marketing rece

Livestock andproducts

43.146.347.659.268.667.869.270.2

69.269.570.168.0

70.771.070.268.9

72.070.8

come of farm ope

3

ipts

Crops

45.849.048.653.763.272.773.174.4

72.769.075.675.0

76.971.072.177.4

70.170.5

rators from farmi

Value ofinventorychanges 2

3.4-1.5

1.1.8

4.9-5.3

7.6-1.9

3.110.19.57.9

2.0-1.7-3.5-4.2

-1.51.6

ng

Productionexpenses

75.082.788.999.5

118.1128.6137.0140.1

135.1136.5137.8138.6

141.0141.5140.3137.6

136.6135.5

Net farn

Currentdollars

25.620.119.827.732.321.530.122.1

26.128.634.431.1

27.417.015.628.2

24.826.4

i income

1967 dollars 3

15.911.810.914.214.88.7

11.07.6

9.910.712.511.0

9.75.95.39.6

11.612.2

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1970.

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

24-318 0 - 8 3 - 2


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the second quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $29.4 billion(annual rate) from their first quarter level and after-tax profits rose $15.9 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS320

280

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

80

40

80

40

1975

SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1983



Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: IIIIV

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III p

Prc

Total 2

82.094.0

105.696.7

120.6151.6178.5205.1209.6191.7203.3165.9

208.3201.5

167.7170.3168.3157.2

168.0189.3

rfits (before t

Total

74.985.392.080.4

107.6137.4163.4185.4179.0161.9179.7144.1

186.5174.7

147.0148.5147.6133.1

147.8170.6

ix) with inve

Doi

Financial

14.115.315.915.011.817.123.131.030.326.920.320.9

18.818.1

15.520.422.225.5

29.833.7

ntory valuatic

nestie industr

Total 3

60.870.076.065.495.8

120.3140.3154.4148.6134.9159.4123.2

167.7156.5

131.5128.1125.4107.6

118.0136.9

jn adjustmen

ies

Nbnfinaneial

Manufac-turing

34.140.745.539.052.669.278.386.985.672.986.759.0

93.376.9

60.961.465.548.3

53.7

t 1

Whole-sale and

retailtrade

11.713.413.912.521.322.426.626.927.123.632.827.6

33.337.8

30.227.425.227.5

27.8

Profitsbefore tax

86.6100.6125.6136.7132.1166.3194.7229.1252.7234.6227.0174.2

227.7217.2

173.2178.8177.3167.5

169.7199.1

Taxliability

37.541.649.051.650.663.872.783.287.684.882.859.2

83.775.6

60.361.460.854.0

61.575.0

P

Total

49.058.976.685.181.5

102.5122.0145.9165.1149.8144.1115.1144.0141.7

112.9117.4116.5113.5

108.2124.1

rofits after ta

Dividends

22.924.427.029.930.837.440.847.052.758.664.768.7

66.467.3

67.767.868.870.4

71.472.0

IX

Undistrib-uted

profits

26.134.549.655.250.765.181.298.9

112.491.279.546.4

77.674.4

45.249.547.743.1

36.752.1

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-4.6-6.6

-20.0-40.0-11.6-14.7-16.2-24.0-43.1-42.9-23.6-8.4

-19.4-15.7

-5.5-8.5-9.0

-10.3

-1.7r-9.8

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.



GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1983, business fixed investment rose $3.8 billion (annualrate) and residential investment outlays rose $16.4 billion. There was an $11.9 billion decrease in inventoriesfollowing a decrease of $39.4 billion in the first quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

550-

CHANGE IN BUSINESSINVENTORIES

-501975

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1983

COUNCIL QF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: HIIV

1982: InIllIV

1983: In r

privatedomestic

investment

166.4195,0229.8228.7206.1257.9324.1386.6423.0401.9474.9414.5

495.8476.2

422.9432.5425.3377.4

404.1451.8

Nonresid

Total

107.9121.0143.3156.6157.7174.1205.2248.9290.2308.8352.2348.3

360.6367.6

361.3352.7342.3337.0

332.1335.9

ential fixed im

Structures

40.544.151.055.955.458.864.478.798.3

110.9133.4141.9

137.0145.5

144.7144.2140.0138.6

132.9127.4

restment

Producers'durable

equipment

67.476.992.3

100.7102.3115.3140.8170.2191.9197.9218.8206.4

223.6222.1

216.5208.5202.2198.4

199.3208.5

Total

50.963.868.057.955.372.095.8

111.2118.6102.9104.390.8

101.794.3

87.391.087.996.8

111.3127.7

Residential fix

Nonfarmstructures

48.961.565.654.852.468.892.0

107.0114.098.199.886.0

97.089.5

83.286.183.491.2

106.7122.7

ed investment

Farmstructures

0.7.7.7

1.31.01.11.51.71.71.81.31.5

1.51.6

.91.61.32.3

1.31.5

Producersdurable

equipment

1.31.51.71.81.92.12.32.52.93.03.23.2

3.23.3

3.23.33.33.3

3.43.5

Change irinven

Total

7.710.218.514.1

-6.911.823.026.514.39.8

18.5-24.5

33.614.3

25.7-11.2

-4.9-56.4

39.4-11.9

i businessones

Nonfarm

6.49.6

15.216.0

-10.513.921.925.48.6

-4.510.923.1

24.16.2

-27.6-8.8-2.3

-53.7

-39.0-10.4



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARMBUSINESSAccording to the Commerce Department April-May survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant andequipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 3.4 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6percent below the 1981 level.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

400

40

301975 1976

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.


1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

60

40

30



Period

197519761977197819791980198119821983 4

1982: IIIIllIV

1983: III4

Ill4

IV4

Total

157.71171.45198.08231.24270.46295.63321.49316.43305.53

327.72323.22315.79302.77

293.03302.23306.83320.02

Plant

65.2171.2080.3192.70

105.73117.55133.46134.47

139.49137.95135.14127.15

125.40

Equip-ment

92.50100.25117.77138.54164.73178.08188.04181.96

188.23185.28180.65175.61

167.62

14

Total

54.9259.9569.2279.7298.68

115.81126.79119.68112.79

128.32123.77119.46110.09

109.86110.97114.09116.25

anufacturin

Durablegoods

26.3328.4734.0440.4351.0758.9161.8456.4451.95

60.8459.0357.1450.50

50.7449.6453.3454.09

g

Nondur-able

goods

28.5931.4735.1839.2947.6156.9064.9563.2360.84

67.4864.7462.3259.59

59.1261.3460.7562.15

Plan

Total

102.79111.50128.87151.52171.77179.81194.70196.75192.73

199.40199.46196.33192.68

183.17191.25192.74203.77

t and equip

Mining

6.107.449.24

10.2111.3813.5116.8615.4513.24

17.6016.5614.6313.31

12.0313.6913.5413.70

ment

Nonmanu

Trans-portation

8.688.899.40

10.6812.3512.0912.0511.9510.80

11.9912.3211.2812.41

11.0410.659.94

11.58

faeturing

Publicutilities

19.9822.3726.7929.9533.9635.4438.4041.9541.59

40.1241.4043.3842.88

41.6142.1840.4642.12

Tradeand

serv-ices *

46.2349.3056.5468.6679.2681.7986.3386.9587.13

87.8088.8587.3184.00

82.3885.3387.4193.37

Commu-nication

andother 2

21.8023.5126.9032.0234.8336.9941.0640.4639.97

41.8940.3339.7340.06

36.1139.4041.3943.00

Starts ofplant and

eouin-ment

projects,manufac-turing 3

56.5159.3877.4088.16

112.98123.32135.19104.78

27.7329.0325.6123.37

23.35

1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and pro-fessional services.

2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,fisheries, and agricultural services.

3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April and May 1983, corrected for

biases.


10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 499,000 in July and unemployment fell 556,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PKSQNS*

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]

Period

197719784

1979198019811982

1982: JulyAugSeptGetNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly

Noninsti-tutionalpopula-

tionincludingresidentArmedForces

160,689163,541166,460169,349171,775173,939

174,038174,200174,360174,549174,718174,864

175,021175,169175,320175,465175,622175,793175,970

Besi-dent

ArmedForces

1,6561,6311,5971,6041,6451,668

Unadj

1,6741,6891,6701,6681,6601,665

1,6671,6641,6641,6711,6691,6681,664

Civilianemploy-

ment

92,01796,04898,82499,303

100,39799,526

usted

101,490101,17799,85199,82599,37998,849

97,26297,26597,99498,84099,543

101,813103,273

Unem-ployment

6,9916,2026,1377,6378,273

10,678

11,03610,71010,69510,94211,47611,628

12,51712,38211,87911,03510,76511,57010,707

Totallaborforce

includ-ing

residentArmedForces

100,665103,882106,559108,544110,315111,872

112,090112,303112,528112,420112,702112,794

112,215112,217112,148112,457112,418113,600113,539

Totalemploy-

mentinclud-

ingresidentArmedForces

93,67397,679

100,421100,907102,042101,194

101,262101,372101,213100,844100,796100,758

100,770100,727100,767101,129101,226102,454102,949

Civilianlaborforce

99,009102,251104,962106,940108,670110,204

110,416110,614110,858110,752111,042111,129

110,548110,553110,484110,786110,749111,932111,875

Total

92,01796,04898,82499,303

100,39799,526

99,58899,68399,54399,17699,13699,093

99,10399,06399,10399,45899,557

100,786101,285

Civilian e

Agri-cultural

3,2833,3873,3473,3643,3683,401

Seas

3,4453,4293,3633,4133,4663,411

3,4123,3933,3753,3713,3673,5223,527

mploymen

Nonagr

Tntnlloiai

88,73492,66195,47795,93897,03096,125

anally adji

96,14396,25496,18095,76395,67095,682

95,69195,67095,72996,08896,19097,26497,758

t

ieultural

Part-time foreconom-

icrea-

sons *

3,3693,2983,3734,0644,4995,852

isted

5,5775,8206,4956,4036,4116,425

6,8456,4816,2026,0825,9285,7295,636

Unemp

Total

6,9916,2026,1377,6378,273

10,678

10,82810,93111,31511,57611,90612,036

11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,50)

oyment

15weeksandover

1,9421,4141,2411,8712,2853,485

3,5693,6373,8564,1674,5244,732

4,6344,6184,6154,3564,5174,5894,417

Laborparticipa

(pen

Tnt«l 2J.OUL1

62.663.564.064.164.264.3

64.464.564.564.464.564.5

64.164.164.064.164.064.664.5

forcebon ratesent)

CwH-MHl3

62.363.20.763.863.964.0

64.164.164.264.164.264.2

63.863.763.663.763.764.364.2

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.

2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident ArmedForces).

3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.

4 Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the 1hold survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESThe seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force,

declined in July to 9.3 percent. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers also declined, to 9.5 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

25

20

15

10

1979

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED,SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983 1979

TEENAGERS(16-19)

WOMEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

'"'''/ '"**»***"»,***£-MEN 20 YEARS-

AND OVER

I 1 1 i | | i i i i i | | | | | | | | | 1 1 | | | 1 1 | | | | | | | | | |1980 1981 1982 1983


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

197719781979198019811982

1982: July..Aug...Sept ..Oct....Nov...Dec ...

1983: Jan...Feb ...Mar...Apr ...May...June-July ..

Unem-ploymentrate, allwork-ers1

6.96.05.87.07.59.5

9.79.7

10.110.310.610.7

10.210.210.110.110.09.89.3

Allcivilianwork-

ers

7.16.15.87.17.69.7

9.89.9

10.210.510.710.8

10.410.410.310.210.110.09.5

B

Men20 yearsand over

5.24.34.25.96.38.8

8.99.09.69.8

10.010.1

9.69.99.69.89.69.08.8

y sex and a

Women20 years

andover

7.06.05.76.46.88.3

8.38.38.48.79.09.2

9.08.98.88.48.58.67.9

Unemp

ge

Bothsexes16-19years

17.816.416.117.819.623.2

23.923.823.824.124.224.5

22.722.223.523.423.023.622.8

oyment ra

White

6.25.25.16.36.78.6

8.78.79.19.39.69.7

9.19.29.08.98.98.68.2

te (pereen

By race

Black a

Total

13.111.911.313.114.217.3

17.417.718.118.418.518.8

19.018.018.518.818.618.917.9

t of civilia

ad other

Black

14.012.812.314.315.618.9

18.819.119.820.120.220.8

20.819.719.920.820.620.619.5

n labor force

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

6.65.65.56.97.39.3

9.49.49.8

10.110.510.7

10.110.110.19.99.89.49.0

in group)

Bys

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

3.62.82.84.24.36.5

6.66.87.27.57.67.8

7.17.27.17.17.06.66.1

elected grou]

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

9.48.58.39.2

10.411.7

12.011.712.411.312.513.2

13.213.013.513.212.912.811.6

JS

Full-time

workers

6.65.65.36.97.39.6

9.69.7

10.210.510.610.8

10.310.410.310.29.99.79.4

Part-time

workers

9.99.08.88.89.4

10.5

11.210.410.610.311.311.1

10.610.110.510.611.012.110.2

Laborforce

time lost(per-

cent) 2

7.66.56.37.98.5

11.0

10.710.911.712.012.412.7

11.712.011.811.411.510.810.4

1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per-

cent of potentially available labor force hours.


12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSIn July, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks was aboutunchanged, the percentage out of work for 15-26 weeks rose, and the percentage out of work 27 weeks and overdeclined.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

70

40

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*70

30 -

20

10 -,

60

50

40

30

20

10

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983 1979

REENTRANTS

1980i i 1 1 i I i

1981

!VNEW ENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

1982 1983


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarAprMayJune ....July

TTu em

(thou-sands)

6,2026,1377,6378,273

10,678

10,82810,93111,31511,57611,90612,036

11,44611,49011,38111,32811,19211,14610,590

Percent (

Lessthan 5weeks

46.248.143.141.736.4

36.736.035.133.932.932.9

30.832.630.732.131.932.832.7

iistrihutiondurat

5-14weeks

31.031.732.330.731.0

30.130.731.130.229.528.3

28.927.128.128.527.026.126.1

of unemplo}ion l

15-26weeks

12.411.513.813.616.0

16.516.616.016.818.217.4

16.816.816.715.015.714.717.1

raient by

27weeks

andover

10.48.7

10.714.016.6

16.616.817.819.119.421.3

23.523.524.524.425.326.424.2

Percent

Joblosers

41.742.951.751.658.7

58.358.660.762.461.660.6

59.160.260.459.760.558.458.5

distributionreas

Jobleavers

14.114.311.711.27.9

7.57.46.86.86.66.9

7.47.58.07.27.27.07.0

of unemploon l

Reen-trants

29.929.425.225.422.3

22.822.221.219.821.321.8

23.122.021.522.021.121.722.9

pment by

Newentrants

14.313.311.411.911.1

11.311.911.311.010.410.7

10.410.310.211.011.212.911.6

Staprogr

Insuredunemploy-

ment

1

2,3592,4343,3503,0474,057

3,9884,1364,3794,6154,6354,428

3,9413,9073,8943,8323,5863,3293,110

teams

Initialclaims

Weekly ave

346388488460583

539617654659618546

509485493484458411384

Insuredunemploy-ment, allregular

programs(unadjust-

ed)2

rage, thousan

2,6452,5923,8373,4104,590

4,4954,3984,2824,3914,6355,074

5,4595,4375,1344,6423,9473,481

Specialunem-

ploymentbenefitclaims

(unadjust-ed)3

ids

807897708

936953691

1,1171,4451,086

849

1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-

men (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State ex-tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.

3 Federal supplemental compensation program.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 487,000 in July following a rise of411,000 in June.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

.GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

1980

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)22

20

16

20

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING

CONSTRUCTION

1983 1979 mo 1981 1982 1983


[Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted]

Period

197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarAprMay r....June r....July"....

Totalnonagri-

employ-ment

82,47186,69789,82390,40691,15689,596

89,45089,26489,23588,93888,78588,665

r 88,88588,74688,814

r 89,09089,42189,83290,319

Total 2

24,34625,58526,46125,65825,49723,907

23,84323,67223,53023,28723,13123,061

23,18623,04923,03023,15923,34723,53423,749

Goods-

Con-struction

3,8514,2294,4634,3464,1883,911

3,9163,8933,8753,8473,8433,815

3,9053,7903,7573,7863,8603,9413,984

producing inc

M

Total

19,68220,50521,04020,28520,17018,853

18,80218,66618,55518,35818,22218,193

18,24418,24518,26718,37618,49318,58718,749

ustries

anufaeturing

Durablegoods

11,59712,27412,76012,18712,10911,100

11,09510,96110,86210,68510,57710,559

10,59410,60810,61710,68910,78810,84310,971

Nondur-able

goods

8,0868,2318,2808,0988,0617,753

7,7077,7057,6937,6737,6457,634

7,6507,6377,6507,6877,7057,7447,778

Total

58,12561,11363,36364,74865,65965,689

65,60765,59265,70565,65165,65465,604

r 65,69965,69765,784

r65,93166,07466,29866,570

Transpor-tation and

publicutilities

4,7134,9235,1365,1465,1655,081

5,0755,0565,0545,0335,0195,008

r4,9794,9664,9634,9884,9934,9914,977

Service-p

Whole-sale and

retailtrade

18,51619,54220,19220,31020,54720,401

20,43820,41020,38020,34420,32020,256

20,35520,34320,35020,32920,35620,48520,498

roducing ind

Finance,insurance,and realestate

4,4674,7244,9755,1605,2985,340

5,3425,3445,3515,3505,3565,367

5,3745,3845,3915,4235,4355,4515,471

ustries

Services

15,30316,25217,11217,89018,61919,064

19,08319,09719,13619,14419,18719,215

19,23819,26219,35619,47819,54619,66019,802

Gover

Federal

2,7272,7532,7732,8662,7722,739

2,7372,7392,7352,7422,7462,747

2,7482,7422,742

r 2,7382,7562,7452,737

nment

Stateandlocal

12,39912,91913,17413,37513,25913,064

12,93212,94613,04913,03813,02613,011

13,00513,00012,98212,97512,98812,96613,085

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments whoworked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domesticservants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

putes, bad weather, etc., even it they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from em-ploying establishments.

* Includes mining, not shown separately,


14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly"

i

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural1

36.536.136.136.035.835.735.335.234.8

34.934.834.834.734.734.8

35.134.534.834.935.135.135.1

Average weeklyhours

Manufa

Total

40.039.540.140.340.440.239.739.838.9

39.139.038.838.939.039.0

39.739.239.540.1

r40.0r40.240.3

cturing

Overtime

3.32.63.13.53.63.32.82.82.3

2.32.32.32.32.32.3

2.42.42.62.92.72.93.1

Average giearn

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural l

$4.244.534.865.255.696.166.667.257.67

7.707.737.737.767.787.82

7.887.917.917.95

r7.978.008.02

oss hourlyings

Manufactur-ing

$4.424.835.225.686.176.707.277.998.50

8.548.568.578.588.618.63

8.688.768.758.788.798.828.85

Adjuste

Ind1977=

Currentdollars

80.086.792.9

100.0108.1116.8127.3138.9148.3

148.8149.6150.0150.7151.1151.9

152.7153.4153.4154.0154.6154.8155.2

d hourly earningnonagnc

ex,= 100

1977dollars 3

98.397.699.0

100.0100.597.493.592.693.3

92.893.093.193.193.494.1

94.795.395.094.894.794.794.6

gs index — totalultural2

Percent changearlie

Currentdollars

8.08.47.27.68.18.09.09.16.8

7.06.66.16.25.76.0

5.45.75.45.24.84.64.3

private

e from a yearr 4 5

1977 dollars

-2.8n

1.41.0.5

-3.1-4.0-1.0

.8

.7

.71.21.21.12.0

1.82.41.61.21.42.12.1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1982: JulyAugSeptOctNovDee

1983: JanFebMarAprMayr

JuneJuly*

Total ]nonagnc

Current dollars

$154.76163.53175.45189.00203.70219.91235.10255.20266.92

268.73269.00269.00269.27269.97272.14

276.59272.90275.27277.46279.75280.80281.50

Avera

)rivateultural *

1977 dollars 3

$190.12184.16186.85189.00189.31183.41172.74170.13167.87

167.54167.18166.98166.32166.96168.61

171.48169.61170.45170.85171.42171.85171.65

£e gross weekly ea

Manufacturing

$176.80190.79209.32228.90249.27269.34288.62318.00330.65

333.91333.84332.52333.76335.79336.57

344.60343.39345.63352.08351.60

r 354.56356.66

irnings

Construction

Current dollars

$249.25266.08283.73295.65318.69342.99367.78399.26426.45

431.47428.72425.59427.25426.24437.18

461.35439.20438.00443.54441.19

r441.19441.26

Wholesale andretail trade

$119.02126.45133.79142.52153.64164.96176.46190.62198.10

199.36199.68199.06200.65200.98203.19

202.57200.65202.88203.83205.76207.36207.03

Percent eha year

total private n<

Current dollars

6.45.77.37.77.88.06.98.54.6

4.94.34.03.43.44.4

6.83.14.34.74.65.24.6

ange fromearlier,^agricultural 5

1977 dollars

-4.1-3.1

1.51.2.2

-3.15.8

-1.51.3

-1.3-1.4-.9

-1.6-1.1

.5

3.1-.2

.6

.71.22.72.4

,'age earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978,

4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24-318 0 - 8 3 - 3 15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

1969

19701971197219731974

19751976197719781979

198019811982

1981: InmIV

1982: InmIV

1983: In r.

1969

19701971197219731974

19751976197719781979

198019811982

1981: Inmrv

1982: InmIV

1983: In r.

Output pcall pe

Businesssector

85.5

86.289.292.494.792.5

94.597.6

100.0100.699.4

98.9101.3101.2

100.5101.1102.3101.2

101.1100.7101.1101.9

102.5103.9

0.2

.83.63.52.6

-2.4

2.23.32.4

.6-1.2

-.52.4

^5.92.24.7

—4.1

-.4-1.6

1.73.3

2.05.7

;r hour ofrsons

Nonfarmbusinesssector

86.5

86.889.793.095.392.9

94.797.8

100.0100.699.1

98.4100.3100.2

100.1100.1101.199.9

100.099.9

100.4100.8

101.7103.2

-0.3

.33.33.72.4

-2.5

2.03.22.2.6

-1.5

-.71.9.1

5.2.4

3.8-4.4

.14.

2.31.3

3.76.1

Outf

Businesssector

79.0

78.480.786.191.789.9

88.293.8

100.0105.5107.8

106.5109.8106.7

109.2109.8111.2108.9

107.2106.9106.6106.0

107.1110.3

2.9

-.83.06.66.6

-2.0

2.06.46.65.52.3

-1.33.1

-2.8

8.32.35.2

-7.8

-6.3-1.0-1.1-2.3

4.212.5

ut l


78.8

78.080.385.891.789.8

87.893.7

100.0105.7108.0

106.5109.3106.3

109.2109.4110.5108.2

106.5106.7106.5105.4

106.7109.9

Pei

2.9

-1.02.96.96.8

-2.0

-2.26.76.75.72.2

-1.42.7

-2.8

7.8.8

4.3-8.3

-6.2.8g

-4.1

4.912.7

Hoursperse

Businesssector

19r

92.5

91.090.593.296.897.3

93.396.0

100.0104.9108.5

107.6108.4105.4

108.6108.6108.7107.7

106.0106.2105.4104.0

104.5106.2

rcent chan

2.6

-1.6-.53.03.9.4

4.13.04.14.93.5

g.7

-2.7

2.3.1.5

-3.9

-6.0.6

-2.7-5.4

2.16.5

of allms 2


f7 = 100; (

91.1

89.889.592.396.296.7

92.795.8

100.0105.0109.0

108.2109.0106.0

109.1109.2109.4108.2

106.5106.8106.0104.6

104.9106.5

ge; quarte

3.2

-1.3-.43.14.3.5

4.13.44.45.03.7

7.7

-2.7

2.4.5.5

-4.0

-6.21.2

-2.9-5.3

1.26.2

Compenshou

Businesssector

[uarterly (

54.2

58.262.066.171.378.0

85.592.9

100.0108.6118.7

131.2143.9155.1

139.7142.2145.5148.2

151.6153.9156.5158.7

160.7162.1

rly data at

7.0

7.36.66.58.09.4

9.68.67.78.69.4

10.59.77.7

11.57.49.67.5

9.46.46.75.7

5.43.5

ation perr 3


ata seasoi

54.8

58.762.566.771.778.5

86.093.0

100.0108.6118.4

130.7143.5154.7

139.3141.8145.1147.7

151.3153.5156.1158.3

161.0162.7

seasonal]

6.5

7.06.66.77.69.4

9.68.17.58.69.0

10.49.87.8

11.57.39.67.6

10.05.87.25.8

6.84.3

Heal comper h

Businesssector

lally adjus

89.6

90.892.895.797.395.9

96.398.9

100.0100.999.1

96.595.997.4

96.396.195.695.6

97.197.497.198.0

99.499.2

y adjusted

1.5

1.32.23.11.6

-1.4

.52.61.2.9

-1.7

-2.6-.61.5

.8-1.0-2.2

.3

6.31.1

-1.03.7

5.8-.7

pensationour 4


ted

90.6

91.593.596.697.896.4

96.899.0

100.0100.998.9

96.195.697.1

96.095.895.395.4

96.997.196.997.8

99.599.6

annual ra

1.1

1.02.23.31.3

-1.4

.42.21.0.9

2.0

-2.8-.61.6

.9-1.1-2.1

.3

6.8.5

-.63.7

7.2.1

UnitCO

Businesssector

63.4

67.569.571.575.384.4

90.595.1

100.0108.0119.5

132.7142.1153.3

139.0140.7142.3146.4

149.9152.9154.7155.6

156.9156.1

tes

6.7

6.42.92.95.3

12.1

7.35.15.18.0

10.7

11.17.17.9

5.35.04.7

12.2

9.88.15.02.3

3.3-2.1

laborst


63.4

67.669.771.775.384.5

90.895.1

100.0108.0119.5

132.8143.0154.4

139.2141.6143.5147.8

151.3153.6155.4157.1

158.3157.6

6.8

6.63.12.85.0

12.2

7.54.85.28.0

10.7

11.17.77.9

6.06.95.6

12.6

9.96.24.74.4

3.0-1.6

Implicdefla

Businesssector

63.2

66.069.071.375.382.4

90.494.7

100.0107.5117.2

128.1140.1147.7

136.3138.2141.5144.3

145.5147.5148.5149.4

151.5152.6

4.9

4.54.43.45.59.5

9.84.75.67.59.0

9.29.45.4

1125.69.98.2

3.45.52.72.6

5.53.1

t pricetor5


63.3

66.369.371.374.081.6

90.094.6

100.0107.1116.5

128.1140.4148.6

136.2138.4141.8145.0

146.4148.3149.1150.5

152.4153.6

4.7

4.84.53.03.8

10.2

10.35.15.77.18.8

10.09.65.8

11.66.6

10.09.5

3.75.42.23.7

5.33.3

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors

and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private

benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.

5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may

differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose 1.8 percent in July, following a rise of 1.1 percent in June. The index for July was 7.1percent above its year earlier level.

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

180TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

ii ill i1982

180UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

MINING"

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

120

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1981 1982 1983


[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion19731974197519761977197819791980198119821982: July

AugSeptGetNovDec

1983: JanFebMarApr r

May r

June r

July"

Toindusprodu

Index,1967 = 100

100.00129.8129.3117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6138.8138.4137.3135.7134.9135.2137.4138.1140.0142.6144.4146.0148.6

taltrialction

Percentchange

from yearearlier

8.4-.48.9

10.85.95.74.43.62.7

-8.2-9.8-9.9

9.4-9.0-7.8-5.7-2.3

3.4-1.2

1.73.75.37.1

Total

87.95129.8129.4116.3130.3138.4146.8153.6146.7150.4137.6138.1138.0137.1135.0134.0134.5136.7138.2140.4143.1145.0146.8149.4

Industry pro<3

Manufacturing

Durable

51.98127.1125.7109.3122.3130.0139.7146.4136.7140.5124.7125.9124.9123.5120.3119.3119.9122.5123.9126.3129.1131.0133.0136.1

uction indexes

Nondurable

35.97133.8134.6126.4141.8150.5156.9164.0161.2164.8156.2155.7156.9156.7156.2155.3155.6157.4159.0160.7163.3165.1166.9168.6

, 1967 = 100

Mining

6.36114.7115.3112.8114.2118.2124.0125.5132.7142.2126.1120.1116.9114.7115.9116.8118.4121.9115.6112.6111.6113.2113.8115.9

Utilities

5.69145.4143.7146.0151.7156.5161.4166.0168.3169.1168.7167.7168.5167.5167.8166.7164.2163.1162.0165.8169.3169.9170.3172.8

Capacity u

Manufa

FederalReserve

series

87.683.772.979.682.284.786.079.679.471.171.471.270.669.468.868.970.070.671.672.973.774.675.8

tilization rate

cturing

Com-merce

series 2

86837781838483787670

69

68

70

, percent l

Materials(FederalReserveseries)

91.787.073.381.182.685.687.680.480.770.169.769.569.067.967.066.668.770.171.572.573.574.476.0

1 Output as percent of capacity.2 Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce(Bureau of Economic Analysis).

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarApr r.Mayr.June r.July"

Total

47.62

124.4125.1118.2127.6135.9142.2147.2145.3149.5141.5

142.5141.2140.0138.7138.3139.5

140.1138.9139.9142.8144.5146.0148.0

C

Total

27.68

131.5128.9124.0137.1145.3149.1150.8145.4147.9142.6

145.8144.1143.4142.2141.3142.0

143.6143,4144.3147.7149.9151.4154.0

Final p

onsumer good

Durablegoods

7.89

146.2135.3121.4141.9154.0159.2155.8136.7140.5129.2

137.3132.9131.3126.5124.6125.9

131.6134.4136.3140.5145.0149,2154.2

Prod

roducts

s

Nondurablegoods

19.79

125.6126.3125.1135.2141.9145.1148.8148.9150.9148.0

149.1148.6148.2148.5147.9148.4

148.3147.0147.5150.5151.9152.3153.9

ucts

Equip

Total

20.14

114.5120.0110.2114.6123.0132.8142.2145.2151.8139.8

138.0137.3135.2134.0134.2136.1

135.3132.7133.8136.2137.0138.5139.8

ment

Business

12.63

134.2142.4128.2135.4147.8160.3171.3173.2181.1157.9

154.9153.9150.5147.1146.4148.1

146.6142.7143.7146.9148.0149.8151.3

Intermedia!

Total

12.89

137.2135.3123.1137.2145.1154.1160.5151.9154.4143.3

142.8144.7143.7141.6141.8141.5

143.7145.3147.8150.8152.1153.7156.1

& products

Construc-tion

supplies

6.42

139.8134.5116.3132.6140.6151.7158.0140.9141.9124.3

124.1127.1125.5122.5123.4123.0

127.0129.7133.1136.4138.6140.2143.4

Materials

39.29

133.9132.4115.5131.7138.6148.3156.4147.6151.6133.7

133.0132.8132.0130.0128.4127.8

132.0134.9137.6139.7141.8143.6146.8

Supple-mentarygroup:Energy

total

12.23

128.3125.5125.5129.1132.9135.4137.9137.7137.4135.7

136.4134.8132.7134.1133.3132.2

132.4131.0131.9133.9133.8134.0137.1

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarApr T

May r

June r

July*.

Primary

Total

6.57

126.7123.196.4

109.7111.1119.9121.3102.3107.975.3

72.972.973.269.663.663.5

73.177.981.283.184.985.888.6

metals

Iron andsteel

4.21

122.3119.895.8

104.8103.8113.2113.292.499.861.7

58.157.456.454.147.546.6

59.064.366.968.569.570.3

Fabricat-ed metalproducts

5.93

124.7124.2109.9123.9131.0141.6148.5134.1136.4114.8

115.5114.3112.3107.6107.0107.3

107.6110.3113.9115.3115.5117.6120.0

Durable mi

Non-electricalmachinery

9.15

133.7140.1125.1134.5143.6153.6163.7162.8171.2149.0

147.1147.2144.9140.4139.6139.2

138.0136.2138.6143.1145.9149.0152.7

inufactures

Electricalmachinery

8.05

143.1143.8116.5134.8145.4159.4175.0172.8178.4169.3

170.3169.7167.0165.4165.5165.5

169.5168.9173.8177.2180.1182.1186.6

Transpequip

Total

9.27

118.3108.797.4

111.1122.2132.5135.4116.9116.1104.9

112.7107.0105.3100.8100.2103.7

106.3109.6110.1111.4113.8116.5120.0

stationment

Motorvehicles

and parts

4.50

148.8128.2111.1142.0161.1169.9159.9119.0122.3109.8

127.2116.7113.5103.0101.7108.8

113.9123.0123.2125.5130.4136.2142.3

Lumberand

products

1.64

126.0116.2107.6123.2131.2136.3136.9119.3119.1112.6

116.9120.3119.9117.2119.1121.4

130.0130.2128.7132.1135.8138.0

^

Apparelproducts

3.31

117.3114.3107.6125.7134.2134.2134.4127.0120.4

endurable i

Printingand

publish-ing

4.72

118.2118.2113.3122.5127.6131.5136.9139.6144.2144.1

143.9145.3144.3142.0141.7142.8

141.3144.0145.9145.7145.2147.5148.5

manufacture

Chemi-cals andproducts

7.74

154.5159.4147.2170.9185.7197.4211.8207.1215.6196.1

194.1195.6196.4194.1192.8195.9

197.6202.3205.7208.5210.9212.7

s

Foods

8.75

120.9124.0123.4133.0138.8142.7147.5149.6152.1151.1

151.0150.7149.0151.5152.0152.8

154.4153.0152.0153.7154.7

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: JuneJulyAugSeptGetNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMay"Junep

July*

Total newconstructionexpenditures

135.9151.1173.8205.6230.4230.7239.4232.0

233.4230.8231.6230.7234.1243.7240.2247.9243.0241.9245.5253.2259.7

Total

95.1112.0135.7159.7181.6175.7186.1181.0

182.9180.8179.5178.2181.9190.5190.8195.0194.3194.9198.0204.7211.9

Resi

Total l

I

46.560.581.093.499.087.386.674.8

Seasonal

75.573.872.771.776.481.286.089.793.696.1

102.0107.6112.4

Private

lential

New housing

Millions of dollars

34.447.365.775.878.663.162.751.9

ly adjusted annu

49.351.452.653.053.655.858.663.468.872.377.382.386.6

Commercialand industrial

20.819.922.529.639.943.851.354.6

al rates

56.955.054.554.654.154.652.653.451.049.746.846.348.9

Other

27.831.532.236.742.744.748.251.5

50.552.052.351.951.454.752.252.049.849.049.250.850.6

Federal,State, and

local

40.939.138.245.948.855.053.351.1

50.450.052.252.552.253.249.452.948.747.047.548.547.9

Constructio

Total valueindex

(1977 = 100)

66.079.0

100.0114.0122.0107.0107.0111.0

Seasonallyadjusted

111102112117105122131127119131129148151137

n contracts 2


floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

555592739977

1,059904906685

Seasonallyadjusted

annual rates

778694717671656608595803693632652734785741

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown sep-arately.

2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971for floor space.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompany, P. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMarAprMay r

June r.July*

Total

1,160.41,537.51,987.12,020.31,745.11,292.21,084.21,062.2

1,1851,0461,1341,1421,3611,280

1,6941,7841,6051,5061,8071,7521,741

Units started, hj

1 unit

892.21,162.41,450.91,433.31,194.1

852.2705.4662.6

625651683716868842

1,1261,1031,0081,0011,1831,1461,010

New private

type of structure

2-4 units

64.085.9

121.7125.0122.0109.591.180.0

Seasona]

968790667979

10011710011796

124134

housing units

5 or more units

204.3289.2414.4462.0429.0330.5287.7319.6

ly adjusted annu

464308361360414359

468564497388528482597

Unitsauthorized

939.21,296.21,690.01,800.51,551.81,190.6

985.51,000.5

al rates

1,065928

1,0291,1541,2271,326

1,4471,4791,4671,5361,6351,7611,782

Unitscompleted

,317.2,377.2,657.1,867.5,870.8,501.6,265.7,005.5

1,0101,001

9361,0771,0531,035

1,1951,1381,1471,1641,3541,388

New prrv

Homes sold

549646819817709545436412

364389473481545529

611593611

r635r661r663620

ate homes

Homes forsale at end of

period l

313353402414

3 398336272251

250248247245246251

259262262

r266r277r290293

Vacancy rate

housing units(percent) 2

6.05.65.25.05.45.45.05.3

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.5

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable

with earlier data.3 New series beginning March 1979.

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for1973-77 are for 14,000 places.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and TradeBusiness sales rose 2.5 percent in June and inventories fell $0.5 billion. According to the advance survey, totalretail sales were about unchanged in July following a rise of 0.3 percent in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 i i i1979 1980 1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1982 1983


160150

140

130

120

110

100

90

70

60

50

RETAIL INVENTORIES

1979 1980

1M,**"»""%Mlil

RETAIL SALES

1981 1982 1983

1.40

1.201979 1983


Period

197519761977197819791980.19811982

1982: JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayr

Junep

July*

Total bu

Sales 2

182,230204,277229,624260,307297,663327,284356,099344,179

349,742347,676343,426342,882336,905338,722338,391

345,337341,490348,009

r351,100363,925372,998

siness *

T

. • 3tones •*

288,375318,544351,036398,890450,736492,885526,152511,942

521,040521,145521,257521,000519,797513,888511,942

507,550507,665503,222504,796505,658505,187

Whol

Sales 2

46,62350,69455,98766,11778,68092,658

100,67395,363

98,01995,79094,34192,52791,80691,91291,389

94,79092,24592,94392,58697,529

100,393

esale

T

, • 3tones 3

Millions

56,69764,07872,31185,68598,394

112,341116,986118,790

119,828119,854119.190119,537120,162118,349118,790

117,564116,417116,591117,498115,855115,345

Total

of dollars,

49,01254,78160,43567,28675,04780,23587,29889,640

88,60389,46989,06989,89790,90592,49292,459

92,30891,16493,26395,44998,431

r98,68598,656

Sales2

Durablegoodsstores

seasonally *

15,24718,15020,72423,21825,19624,40126,33526,739

26,13626,12425,83126,61927,15428,72128,723

28,30727,49029,16030,66832,124

r32,33532,088

Be

Nondura-ble goods

stores

idjusted

33,76536,63139,71144,06749,85055,83460,96362,901

62,46763,34563,23863,27863,75163,77163,736

64,00163,67464,10364,78166,307

r66,35066,568

tail

Total

71,74479,27389,530

102,790111,229116,430126,833128,250

126,300126,662128,258129,788128,849127,619128,250

127,869130,392129,327129,901131,654132,452

Inventories 3

Durablegoodsstores

33,35637,84143,13549,98753,71754,40059,09559,597

58,22558,88860,20461,66860,58159,41759,597

59,73561,51760,41260,64061,40161,955

Nondura-ble goods

stores

38,38841,43246,39552,80357,51262,03067,73868,653

68,07567,77468,05468,12068,26868,20268,653

68,13468,87568,91569,26170,25370,497

Inventory-s

Totalbusiness 1

1.571.481.461.441.431.451.441.51

1.491.501.521.52.54.52.51

.47

.49

.45

.441.391.35

ales ratio 4

Retail

1.441.381.401.431.441.421.401.41

1.431.421.441.441.421.381.39

1.391.431.391.361.341.34

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthlydata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn July, manufacturers' shipments and new orders fell, while inventories and unfilled orders rose.


200180160

140

120

100

on

AH

B-SHIPME—

~^S* ' ""1---ui»* >»***»*iii*tit*1ji~-**~m~~

-

NTS

r^X-*

DURABLE Ga

*2*j*j$**Not1

M i l . I

TOTAL

DOS

\vIDURABLE GO

, , , . , ! . . in

"' %—i

*~~^ODS

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1

_

_*m

**^

~

-

^ -

«**

1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 I 1 i

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)360


180i fjr\

1 Af)

100

80

60

E-NEW Of—-^v - **--

[^%*%. ......i

•i **

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11979

RDERS

^^ j**\r+*^S'

DURABLE GOO

i i i 1 1 1 i i i i i1980

— *T*'x^TOTAL

DS

)NDURABLE O

i i i i i I i i i i I1981

—

lODs"""*"""**

i i I 1 1 i I 1 1 1 i1982

E—

^^*---

•*

| 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 |

1983

320280

240

200

160

120

100

80

60

40

—INVENTORIES-

DURABLE GOODS

1 1 1 1 1

LNONDURABLE GOODS

RATIO*2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED


Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: JuneJulyAugSeptGetNovDee

1983: JanFebMarAprr

Mayr

June r.July"

Manufa

Total

86,59598,802

113,202126,905143,936154,391168,129159,177

163,120162,417160,016160,458154,194154,318154,543

158,239158,081161,803163,065167,965173,920173,111

cturers' shipi

Durablegoods

43,65650,68959,26767,84876,06077,55083,87276,843

79,19778,85677,25076,41972,47873,00573,495

77,74477,76979,59580,24182,66986,58285,630

nents *

Nondura-ble goods

42,93948,11353,93559,05767,87676,84184,25782,334

83,92383,56182,76684,03981,71681,31381,048

80,49580,31282,20882,82485,29687,33887,481

Manufac

Total

M

159,934175,193189,195210,415241,113264,114282,333264,902

274,912274,629273,809271,675270,786267,920264,902

262,117260,856257,304257,397258,149257,390258,363

3turers' inven

Durablegoods

dlions of do

102,874112,581121,575137,834160,554174,547186,222175,200

182,811182,099181,543180,520179,675177,061175,200

172,506171,572169,377169,814170,734169,840169,712

tories 2

Nondura-ble goods

liars, seasoi

57,06062,61267,62072,58180,55989,56796,11189,702

92,10192,53092,26691,15591,11190,85989,702

89,61189,28487,92787,58387,41587,55088,651

1

Total

mlly adjust*

85,14999,543

115,061131,616147,466156,142167,924157,371

159,986158,913155,700156,572152,362152,604157,382

162,871157,757162,587166,025169,874178,489175,486

ianufaeturers

Durable

Total

3d

42,01951,39861,11172,40979,51379,34183,72575,103

76,15775,56372,96572,34870,73571,06776,180

82,35577,44979,95183,10184,45690,90587,719

new orders

3 goods

Capitalgoods

industries,non-

defense

11,01112,79915,29119,45823,23123,25924,05920,687

19,93219,93118,74120,21720,12719,98319,679

20,50719,17520,03222,59222,22824,28921,555

Nondura-ble goods

43,13048,14553,95059,20767,95376,80184,19982,268

83,82983,35082,73584,22481,62781,53781,202

80,51680,30882,63682,92485,41887,58487,767

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 3

173,829182,499205,675262,671305,453325,908323,346300,971

313,384309,880305,564301,678299,846298,132300,971

305,599305,268306,053309,015310,922315,488317,867

Manufac-turers'inven-tory —

shipmentsratio 4

.84

.69

.61

.57

.571.661.641.73

1.691.691.711.691.761.741.71

1.661.651.591.581.541.481.49

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.2 Book value, end of period.3 End of period.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; formonthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn July, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finishedconsumer foods fell 0.6 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.4 percent. Prices of capitalequipment rose 0.1 percent.

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)320

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

120 I I I i I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I

160

140

1975

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

160

140

1933


[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

197519761977197819791980198119821982: July

AugSeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarr.AprMayJuneJuly

Totalfinishedgoods

163.4170.6181.7195.9217.7247.0269.8280.7281.2282.5282.8283.8285.5286.4283.3283.8283.0282.8283.7285.0285.3

Con-sumerfoods

181.0180.4189.9207.2226.2239.5253.6259.3259.2259.4258.3258.2258.2258.8258.3260.9261.4264.2262.9261.2259.6

Fi

Total

156.2166.1177.7190.7213.3247.8273.3285.8286.6288.2288.9290.3292.5293.5289.5289.2288.1286.9288.5290.8291.8

Fin]

mished goc

Total

153.1162.6174.3186.7211.5250.8276.5287.8288.5290.1291.2293.2295.8296.7290.8290.0288.0286.6288.2291.3292.5

shed goods

)ds excluding

Consumer gc

Durable

138.2144.5152.8166.9183.2206.2218.6226.7227.4228.6227.8228.5229.8230.4229.6232.2232.6232.4232.6233.7233.8

consumer foo

»ods

Nondurable

163.0174.8189.3200.0231.3283.9319.6333.6334.3336.2338.6

. 341.7345.3346.4337.3333.7329.7326.7330.0334.6336.8

Is

Capitalequip-ment

162.5173.4184.6199.2216.5239.8264.3279.4280.5282.3281.9282.0283.1284.4283.9285.0285.8285.9286.6287.3287.7

Totalfinished

163.6169.7180.7194.9217.9248.9271.3281.0281.5282.6283.0284.4286.2287.0283.1283.4282.2282.0282.9284.4284.6

Intern

Total

180.0189.1201.5215.6242.2280.3306.0310.4310.3310.3310.8310.9311.7311.8310.1309.8308.6307.6308.9311.4312.2

lediate ma

Foodsand

feeds 1

195.3185.3190.5203.1226.1252.6250.3239.4242.1239.8236.7234.0233.7234.0236.0239.4239.8245.9245.1243.2242.3

terials

Other

178.6189.4202.3216.5244.4282.3310.1315.7315.3315.6316.3316.6317.4317.5315.6315.0313.7312.3313.7316.5317.4

Cn

Total

196.9202.7209.2234.4274.3304.6329.0319.5322.1319.1315.4314.3317.3316.6315.8316.8318.9323.9323.9323.5319.7

ide mater

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

191.8190.2192.1216.2247.9259.2257.4247.8251.0246.9239.5237.0239.4240.3243.0248.8250.5258.0255.0251.0244.6

als

Other

206.9228.5245.0272.3330.0401.0482.3473.9475.4474.8478.6480.4484.8480.6472.6463.3466.4466.3472.6479.6481.2

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICESIn July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted (also 0.4 percent notseasonally adjusted). The index was 2.4 percent above its level in July 1982.


300

280

260

240

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)320

1980 1981

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

1982 1983

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Rel. imp.5

197519761977197819791980198119821982: July

AugSeptOctNovDec


Allitems 1

NSA

100.0161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1292.2292.8293.3294.1293.6292.4293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3

Food

19.0175.4180.8192.2211.4234.5254.6274.6285.7287.6286.9287.5288.1288.2288.1288.3288.3290.1291.3292.2291.3291.0

Total *

57.7164.5174.6186.5202.8227.6263.3293.5314.7318.4319.7319.3320.5319.9317.4318.9318.9318.7320.4321.5322.1323.4

Total

21.3169.7179.0191.1210.4239.7281.7314.7337.0342.5344.0342.3342.6340.7336.0338.3339.1339.2341.6342.7343.6345.3

Hou

She

Eent-ers'

costs 2

6.9

100.2

100.8101.1101.3101.7102.2102.5103.1

sing

Iter

Home-own-ers'

costs 2

NSA

13.9

100.0100.7100.9100.9101.7102.0102.2102.7

Mainte-nanceand

repairs

NSA

0.5187.6199.6214.7233.0256.4285.7314.4334.1334.7335.9338.4339.4339.0337.8342.9339.4339.9343.6344.3345.1346.1

Fueland

otherutilities

8.4167.8182.7202.2216.0239.3278.6319.2350.8350.3353.1357.5362.7367.1369.6368.9366.9365.1365.8368.8368.9370.1

Appar-el andupkeep

5.2142.3147.6154.2159.6166.6178.4186.9191.8192.2192.7192.8193.3193.2192.7193.2194.2194.1194.5195.8196.5197.7

Ti

Total J

21.8150.6165.5177.2185.5212.0249.7280.0291.5294.1295.3295.6296.4296.0295.8293.9289.1289.0292.1295.8297.1298.6

ansportatic

Newcars

3.5127.6135.7142.9153.8166.0179.3190.2197.6198.0199.2199.6199.2198.7199.3199.4201.1202.6201.3200.6200.8200.8

m

Motorfuel3

6.2170.8177.9188.2196.3265.6369.1410.9389.4393.4395.9396.0395.4394.2391.2378.3353.0349.5363.2378.1380.9382.5

Medicalcare

6.0168.6184.7202.4219.4239.7265.9294.5328.7330.5333.4336.3338.7341.8344.4347.2350.1351.7353.3354.8356.4358.4

Ener-. gy4

12.4176.6189.3207.3220.4275.9361.1410.0416.1416.7418.9421.0426.6430.2431.3

6 420.5404.9401.3409.3419.5420.9422.3

Allitemsless

food,energy,

andshelter

47.5149.4159.9169.5179.1191.5208.3228.1245.6246.7247.7248.7250.1250.7251.9253.1254.2254.9255.5256.1257.0258.5

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 December 1982=100.3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

tc.5 Relative importance, December 1982.

6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and

clerical workers.Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982


1983: JanFebMar r.Apr r.MayJune r

July

Ch

Totalfinishedgoods

Chi

18.36.63.76.99.2

12.811.87.13.7

C

0.5.5.1.4.6.3

-1.1.2

-.3-.1

.3

.5

.1

ange from pi

Consume

Foods

inge, Dec.

13.05.5

-2.56.9

11.77.47.51.42.1

mnge, moi

-1.6.1

-.4-.00

.2

-.21.0.2

1.1-.5-.6-.6

eceding peri

r goods

Exclud-ing foods

to Dec., N

20.56.76.06.78.5

17.514.28.54.2

ith to mon

1.4.6.4.7.9.3

-2.0-.3-.7

.5

.61.1.4

od

Capitalequip-ment

SA

22.68.26.47.37.98.8

11.49.23.9

th

0.4.6

-.1.0.4.5

-.2.4.3.0.2.2.1

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

6.18.04.23.74.35.2

-.7-2.4-4.7-.7

.12.93.6

from 3 month

Consum

Foods

-3.6-4.3-7.7

1.5-1.8

.8

.24.24.19.53.1-.3

-6.8

s earlier, anni

3r goods

Excludingfoods

10.214.19.66.78.17.8

-3.2-7.6

-11.2-5.7

2.54.78.5

lal rate

Capitalequipment

5.96.63.52.21.13.6

2.72.72.02.82.32.12.5

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

2.83.64.44.96.24.7

1.5.9.1

-.7-1.3-1.0

1.4

from 6 montl

Consum

Foods

2.41.2.7

-2.6-3.1-3.5

-.71.22.44.73.71.91.0

s earlier, ann

sr goods

Excludingfoods

2.63.96.08.4

11.08.7

1.6-.1

-2.2-4.5-5.1-3.6

1.2

ual rate

Capitalequipment

4.15.84.34.03.93.5

2.41.92.82.82.52.02.7

Changefromyear

earlier,total

finishedgoods

NSA

15.310.84.46.57.8

11.113.59.24.0

3.64.03.63.63.73.7

2.22.22.22.12.31.81.4

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982



Allitems l

12.27.04.86.89.0

13.312.48.93.9

0.6.3.1.4

0-.3

.2-.2

.1

.6

.5

.2

.4

Food

12.26.5

.68.0

11.810.210.24.33.1

0.2-.2

.2

.2

.0-.0

.10

.6

.4

.3-.3— .1

Total l

13.47.55.47.69.9

15.213.710.23.6

0.5.4

— .1.42

-.8

.50

— .1.5.3.2.4

Total1

11.47.34.28.7

11.517.415.19.92.4

0.6.4

— 5.1

-.6— 1.4

.7

.2

.0

.7

.3

.3

.5

Hoi

Sh

Rent-ers'costs

0.6.3.2.4.5.3.6

ising

elter

Home-owners'

NSA

Chang

0.7.2.0.8.3.2.5

Mainte-nanceand

NSA

e, Decem

16.25.57.17.2

10.110.310.69.24.2

Change,

-0.4.4.7.3i

^

1.5-1.0

.11.1.2.2.3

Fueland

otherutili-ties

ber to D

16.611.29.08.15.9

16.013.614.59.7

month t

0.5.8

1.21.51.2.7

-.2-.5-.5

.2

.8

.0

.3

Ap-parelandup-

keep

ecember

8.72.34.54.23.25.56.83.61.6

3 month

0.4.3.1.3i

-.3

.3

.5— .1

.2

.7

.4

.6

Trs

Total1

, NSA

13.39.88.84.37.7

18.214.711.01.7

0.9.4.1.3.1

-.1

-.6-1.6-.01.11.3.4.5

msportati

Newcars

11.57.34.87.26.27.47.56.81.6

0.4.6.2

-.2.3.3

.1

.9

.7-.6-.3

.10

on

Motorfuel2

20.611.02.64.98.5

52.218.99.4

-6.5

1.5.6.0

-.2.3

-.8

-3.3-6.7-1.0

3.94.1

.7

.4

Medi-cal

care

12.49.9

10.18.88.8

10.110.012.511.0

1.0.9.9.7.9.8

.8

.8

.5

.5

.4

.5

.6

Ener-gy3

21.611.66.97.28.0

37.418.111.91.3

0.9.5.5

1.3.8.3

*-2.5-3.7-.92.02.5.3.3

Allitemslessfood,

energy,and

shelter

11.36.47.05.26.57.29.99.46.1

0.5.4.4.6.2.5

.5

.4

.3

.2

.2

.4

.6

Addenduchar

From3

monthsearlier

11.38.24.13.32.1.5

-.4-1.2

.42.15.15.44.7

m: All itemsige (annual r

From6

monthsearlier

6.16.66.97.25.12.3

1.4.4.5.8

1.92.93.4

percentate)

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

11.09.15.86.57.7

11.313.510.46.1

6.55.95.05.14.63.9

3.83.53.63.93.52.62.4

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

tc.4 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earn-ers and clerical workers.

Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers fell 2.2 percent in July and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month endedJuly 15.


160

140

120

100

80

60


PRICES RECEIVED

RATIO -I/

140

1975 1976 1977

V RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

160

140

120

100

80

60

1983


[1977 = 100]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982



Pri

All farmproducts

101102100115132134139133

137133136128128127

128132134136137134131

3cs received by farm

Crops

105102100105116125134121

125117124114117114

114118121127129126123

ers

Livestock andproducts

98101100124147144143145

147148147142139139

142146146145144141139

P

All commodities,services,

interest, taxes,and wage rates *

8995

100108123138150156

157157157156156156

157158159159160160160

rices paid by farmer

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wagerates

8995

100109125139151154

155155154153154153

156157157158159159158

s

Productionitems

9197

100108125138148149

151150149148149148

150151152153154154152

Ratio 2

113107100106107979386

878587828281

82848486868482

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices

and wage rates.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETSGrowth in Ml and the broader aggregates slowed in July.


2,6002,4002,2002,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

AA3

I I I I I I1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

M2

1980 1981

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

2,6002,4002,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1982

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

2001983

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1975: Dec1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec


1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly"

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,

travelers' checks, andother checkable deposits

(OCD) !

291.1310.4335.5363.2389.0414.1440.6478.2

454.4458.3463.2468.7474.0478.2

482.1491.1497.6496.5507.4511.7515.5

M2

Ml plus overnight EPsand Eurodollars,MMMF balances

(general purpose andbroker /dealer),

MMDAs, and savingsand small time deposits

1,023.01,163.51,286.41,388.51,497.51,630.31,794.91,959.5

1,880.91,903.61,917.01,929.71,945.01,959.5

2,010.02,050.82,069.9

r 2,074.8r 2,096.2r2,114.32,125.4

M3

M2 plus large timedeposits, term RPs, andinstitution-only MMMF

Da nee s

1,161.71,296.31,451.81,613.51,758.41,936.72,167.92,377.6

2,283.42,317.92,333.92,352.02,370.22,377.6

2,403.32,430.62,447.12,454.0

r 2,476.5r 2,499.32,510.0

L

M3 plus other liquidassets

1,371.91,522.41,711.01,922.92,131.82,343.62,622.02,896.8

2,798.22,823.62,840.52,866.02,882.42,896.8

2,930.72,960.52,988.3

Percent (m

Ml

4.96.68.18.37.16.56.48.5

3.04.76.68.89.8

11.2

12.614.815.412.214.614.514.3

Change fromonths earlier

M2

12.613.710.67.97.98.9

10.19.2

8.09.99.9

10.610.510.514.216.116.615.6

r!6.2r!6.411.8

pear or 62

M3

9.411.612.011.19.0

10.111.99.7

9.511.911.411.811.910.7

10.810.09.98.99.2

10.59.1

1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from <

earlier at an annual rate.

NOTE.—See page 27 for components.


26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Dec:19751976197719781979198019811982

1982:JulyAugSeptOctNovDee

1983:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly P....

1 Net of dem2 Small deno

$100,000 and n

Cur-rency

73.980.688.697.5

106.3116.2123.2132.8

128.8129.6130.5131.3131.9132.8

134.2135.6137.0138.0139.3140.3140.9

and depositsmination anlore than $

De-manddepos-its 1

214.1224.4239.7253.8262.0266.8236.4239.8

232.1232.5234.0236.0237.6239.8

239.4238.7240.1238.9242.5244.0245.7

due to fored large den100,000, res

Othercheck-able

depos-its

(OCD)

0.92.74.28.4

17.026.976.6

101.3

89.191.894.397.0

100.1101.3

104.5112.5116.0115.0120.9122.7124.2

ign commeromination <pectively.

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs),

net, plusover-nightEuro-dollars

NSA

5.810.614.720.321.228.436.144.3

41.842.441.543.945.244.3

47.348.848.750.655.1

r56.052.4

cial banks aneposits are t

Moneymutua

bala

Gener-al

pur-poseandbro-ker/

dealer

NSA

2.72.42.46.4

33.461.4

150.9182.2

172.9182.3185.1187.6191.1182.2

166.7159.6154.0146.7

r!41.1r 139.6

138.4

I official inslose issued

marketI fundnces

Insti-tutiononly

NSA

0.4.6.9

3.19.5

14.936.047.6

40.447.148.249.349.947.6

46.145.243.541.040.439.238.6

itutions.in amounts

Moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

NSA

43.2

43.2

189.1277.7320.5341.2356.8367.3368.4

of less than

Sav-ings

depos-its

388.8453.0491.6481.2423.1400.7344.4359.3

345.0346.7350.0358.0366.4359.3

335.1325.7322.7321.5

r323.1r 325.0323.5

TraveNSA

Soiirr

Smalldenom-ination

timedepos-its2

338.1391.0446.0521.8635.9731.7828.6859.1

872.9879.8883.2878.0874.9859.1

797.4755.1733.8725.7720.1

r722.1735.0

ers checksindicates da

e: Board of

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-its2

129.9118.2145.2194.9222.2258.9302.6333.8

332.1334.9336.1339.6340.4333.8

310.7297.9296.2300.4299.5

r 304.7306.3

are a comp<ta are not s

Governors

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)

NSA

8.414.219.527.130.134.837.240.3

34.537.036.437.739.440.3

40.640.841.742.745.3

r44.542.8

ment of moeasonally a<

if the Feder

TermEuro-dollars(net)

NSA

9.713.118.429.041.548.065.380.1

83.780.980.681.179.580.1

81.283.886.7

ley stock bujusted.

al Reserve

Sav-ings

bonds

67.271.776.480.279.572.367.767.9

67.667.567.567.667.867.9

68.168.568.8

t are not sh

•ivstem.

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

76.880.889.799.3

128.7156.9176.3217.6

202.9204.1203.6210.3214.5217.6

219.3219.3224.5

own here.

Bank-ers'

accep-tances

8.48.8

11.821.626.731.640.644.9

42.041.341.442.843.144.9

45.343.242.0

Com-mercialpaper

48.051.762.979.297.098.1

104.2108.8

118.7112.0113.7112.3107.3108.8

113.5115.1119.2

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982

1982: JuneJulyAugSeptGetNovDee

1983: JanFebMar...AprMayJune

Installn

Total 2

180,083210,740257,600297,668324,777306,076334,508344,90130,03427,98228,02428,61928,65031,69130,777

nent credit e?

Auto-mobile

52,42063,74375,64187,98193,90183,45493,24095,9978,3647,3767,1627,4888,041

10,1779,716

tended

Revolving

36,95643,93487,596

105,125120,174128,068139,829150,06113,36712,65812,72812,70512,61412,77812,491

Installrr

Total 2

172,675189,179222,138254,589286,396304,628316,291331,80528,01127,14327,76827,36328,78129,67628,359

ent credit liq

Auto-mobile

49,44453,27860,43769,24579,18682,97784,74591,099

7,3957,3397,5427,1398,1118,6438,225

uidated

Revolving

35,61641,76481,34896,090

111,546126,653135,362145,69612,64012,10012,52912,39412,53312,73911,990

Net

Total 2

7,40821,56135,46243,07938,381

1,44818,21713,0962,023

839256

1,256-1312,0152,4182,725

7352,5822,2712,6964,406

change in amsutstanding 1

Auto-mobile

2,97610,46515,20418,73614,715

4778,4954,898

96937

-380349

-701,5341,491

625233

1,221689

1,3131,973

ount

Revolving

1,3402,1706,2489,0358,6281,4154,4674,365

7275581993118139

50168

-1351,177

917514

1,210

Amount ousea

Total 2

169,387190,725226,646269,392307,115308,137326,274339,316333,884334,276334,343335,180335,593336,897339,316342,041342,776345,358347,629350,325354,731

tstanding, ensonally adjus

Auto-mobile

57,27967,79882,890

101,863116,523116,808125,323130,235127,727127,628127,271127,473127,694128,824130,235130,860130,627131,848132,537133,850135,823

I of period,ted

Revolving

14,46716,50536,42745,00453,17454,65058,72262,83061,45861,86762,00762,12062,30262,32662,83062,89862,76363,94064,85765,37166,581

1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Be-inning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding.

2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.

Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982.


27


BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVESCommercial and industrial loans rose again in July.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)1,8001,6001,400

1,200

1,000

800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

600

400

200180160

140

120

100

60

LOANS AND LEASES600

400

200180160

140

120

100

60

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

„.......».•»""""'„„.„««•«"•'"

INVESTMENT INU.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

40 I I I I I I I I I I I I I i i i i i M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I1975 1976 1977

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983


[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1975: Dec1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec


1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly*

Total loansand

investments

745.2804.6891.5

1,013.51,135.91,239.61,316.3

rl,412.0

1,376.11,383.11,389.41,397.51,398.5

rl,412.0

1,428.2rl,436.3r 1,450.11,460.61,474.4

rl,488.01,499.9

AL

Loans a

Total 2

517.4555.0632.5747.0849.9915.1973.9

1,042.0

1,023.71,028.3,033.5,038.1,036.4,042.0

r ,045.0r ,048.7

,056.3,059.5,063.3,070.6,081.0

commercial ban

nd leases


loans

189.6190.9210.9245.9291.2326.8358.0

r392.3

386.7387.9392.5394.8392.0

r392.3

r395.1394.9396.2392.9393.0395.0399.1

b1

Invest!

U.S. Treasurysecurities

82.2100.899.893.894.5

110.0111.0130.9

116.5117.8118.2122.3126.4130.9

139.8144.5151.0157.8166.1

r!71.2172.9

nents

Othersecurities

145.6148.8159.3172.8191.5214.4231.4

r239.2

235.9237.1237.6237.2235.8

r239.2

243.3r243.1242.8243.4245.0246.2246.0

R

re

Total

29.3729.7531.1532.8334.2336.2337.9340.78

39.0139.2139.6639.9340.4140.78

40.1240.3441.0041.3041.2441.7241.93

Depos

eserves adjustfor changes

serve requirer

Non-borrowed

29.2429.7030.5831.9632.7634.5437.2940.15

38.3238.6938.7239.4539.7940.15

39.5939.7640.2140.2940.2940.0840.47

itory institutio

3dinoents

Required

29.1029.4830.9632.5933.9135.7137.6140.28

38.6938.8939.2739.5340.0140.28

39.5739.9140.5740.8340.7941.2441.42

ns8

Bom(millions

unad

Total

12762

558874

1,4731,617

636697

669510976455579697

500557852993902

rl,7141,382

) wingsof dollars,usted)

Seasonal

131254

13482

1165333

225119102864733

3339538298

121172

1 Data are averages of Wednesday figures.2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.3 Data are averages of daily figures.

NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have beenreduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (TBFs).


28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS


Period

1973197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: MIV

1982: InmIV

1983: lp

Total

192.4190.1156.9210.8252.2315.4346.3333.7352.2319.4

348.9345.0

310.5350.9335.3280.8

373.4

Internal l

91.785.6

119.7134.2157.4175.7188.8197.5231.1236.1

235.2241.4

232.6234.3240.1237.5

248.8

Total

100.7104.437.276.694.9

139.7157.5136.2121.183.3

113.7103.6

77.9116.695.243.3

124.6

Sources

Ci

Total

56.769.930.754.570.479.391.295.792.694.8

100.282.5

105.1100.3108.066.1

100.6

External

edit market fu

Securitiesand

mortgages

20.726.338.738.233.931.925.957.523.151.53.2

12.7

27.939.947.890.4

77.9

iids

Loans andshort-term

paper

36.043.6

-8.016.336.547.465.338.269.643.3

97.069.9

77.260.460.2

-24.3

22.7

Other 2

44.034.56.5

22.124.560.466.340.628.5

-11.7

13.521.1

-27.116.3

-12.8-22.8

24.0

Total

191.9190.1150.9201.8237.6294.2347.1317.9314.8271.5

304.6284.0

240.4284.4306.7254.3

322.1

Uses

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

121.5137.9109.7148.3175.1202.2219.8220.5260.9246.2

284.6265.5

241.9248.4268.2226.3

237.9

Increase infinancialassets

70.552.241.253.562.592.0

127.397.453.925.3

20.018.5j 5

36.038.528.0

84.2

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

0.5.0

6.09.0

14.721.2-.815.837.448.0

44.261.0

70.266.528.726.551.3

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained Government,abroad.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIALCORPORATIONS

[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

End of period

SEC series: 2

19701971197219731974

PTC-FRB series: 3

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: InmIV

Total

492.3529.6599.3697.8790.7

735.4759.0827.4912.7

1,043.71,218.21,333.51,426.81,430.9

1,410.51,426.8

1,424.61,422.61,446.91,430.9

Cash

50.253.359.066.371.1

73.282.188.297.2

105.5118.0127.1131.9143.7

125.1131.9

122.0124.4126.9143.7

Curren

TT Q

Govern-ment

securities

7.711.010.612.812.3

11.119.023.518.217.317.019.318.023.118.118.0

16.917.119.623.1

assets

Notes andaccounts

receivable

206.1221.1248.2288.5322.1

265.8272.1292.9330.3388.0461.1510.6536.2517.0

542.0536.2

539.2536.8539.7517.0

Inven-tories

193.3200.4225.7263.9313.6

319.5315.9342.5376.9431.6505.5543.7587.1577.5

577.0587.1

592.7588.4598.0577.5

Othercurrentassets

35.043.855.866.471.7

65.969.980.390.1

101.3116.7132.7153.6169.6

148.3153.6

153.7155.8162.7169.6

C

Total

304.9326.0375.6450.9530.4

453.4451.6495.1557.1669.3807.8890.9979.5976.5

966.7979.5

988.0987.5

1,005.2976.5

urrent liabilitM

Notes andaccountspayable

211.3220.5282.9340.3402.3

269.8264.2282.1317.6382.9461.2515.2562.4548.7

549.0562.4

555.5555.1559.7548.7

58

Othercurrent

liabilities

93.6105.592.7

110.7128.1

183.6187.4213.0239.6286.4346.6375.7417.1427.8

417.7417.1

432.5432.4445.5427.8

Networkingcapital

187.4203.6223.7246.9260.3

282.0307.4332.4355.5374.4410.5442.6447.3454.4

443.7447.3

436.6435.1441.7454.4

ratio 1

.615

.625

.595

.548

.491

.622

.681

.671

.638

.559

.508

.497

.457

.465

.459

.457

.442

.441

.439

.465

1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo-

rations, Federal Trade Commission.

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System, Federal Trade Commission, andSecurities and Exchange Commission.

29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates rose again in August.

PERCENT PER ANNUM

1975 1976

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

1982 1983


[Percent per annum]

Period

197719781979198019811982

1982: AugSeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug*

Week ended:1983: July 2

9162330

Aug 6132027

Sept. 3

U.S. T

3-month bills l

5.2657.221

10.04111.50614.07710.686

9.0068.1967.7508.0428.0137.8108.1308.3048.2528.198.829.129.39

9.099.109.079.199.139.369.579.439.189.28

reasury security

Constant n

3-year

6.698.299.72

11.5514.4412.92

12.6212.0310.629.989.889.649.919.849.769.66

10.3210.9011.30

10.4710.7710.9210.9311.0611.3811.5811.1711.03

yields

laturities 2

10-year

7.428.419.44

11.4613.9113.00

13.0612.3410.9110.5510.5410.4610.7210.5110.4010.3810.8511.3811.84

11.0111.2511.4011.3611.5711.9512.1011.7111.58

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 3

5.565.906.398.51

11.2311.57

11.1210.619.599.979.919.459.489.168.969.039.519.46

9.389.519.459.369.519.659.869.679.60

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)

8.028.739.63

11.9414.1713.79

13.7112.9412.1211.6811.8311.7912.0111.7311.5111.4611.7412.1512.51

11.8512.0212.1312.1712.3112.6212.7112.4012.32

Primecommercial

paper,6 months 4

4 5.614 7.9910.9112.2914.7611.89

10.8010.869.218.728.508.158.398.488.488.319.039.369.68

9.119.279.379.419.469.799.909.679.39

Discount rate(N.Y. F.R.

Bank)5

5.467.46

10.2811.7713.4111.02

High-low

11.50-10.0010.00-10.0010.00- 9.509.50- 9.009.00-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50

8.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.50

Prime ratecharged by

banks5

6.839.06

12.6715.2718.8714.86

High-low

15.50-13.5013.50-13.5013.50-12.0012.00-11.5011.50-11.5011.50-11.0011.00-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.50

10.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5010.50-10.5011.00-10.5011.00-11.0011.00-11.00

New-homemortgage

(FHLBB) 6

9.029.56

10.7812.6614.7015.14

15.6814.9814.4113.8113.6913.4913.1613.4112.4212.67

r!2.3612.49

1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.

30

6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges asr the Treasury De- well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning

January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices declined in August.

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50100

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=501100

40

20

10 ~>

1975

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1977197819791980198119821982: July

AugSeptGetNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAug p

Week ended:1983: July 2

9162330

Aug 6132027

Nev

Composite

53.6953.7058.3268.1074.0268.9362.8262.9170.2176.1079.7580.3083.2584.7487.5090.6194.6196.4396.7493.92

97.1597.1296.1896.7696.7593.8293.0594.8693.96

v York Stock Exc

Industrial

57.8658.2364.7678.7085.4478.1871.3770.9880.0886.6790.7692.0095.3797.26

100.61104.46109.43112.52113.21109.45

113.84113.84112.45113.10113.28109.51108.27110.65109.40

Co

hange indexes (E

Transporta-tion

41.0943.5047.3460.6172.6160.4153.4053.9861.3966.6471.9273.4075.6579.4483.2885.2689.0792.2292.9187.96

94.0193.4491.7992.6093.5589.5587.8387.4287.00

mmon stock price

>ec. 31, 1965=5

Utility

40.9239.2238.2037.3538.9139.7537.2038.1940.3642.6743.4642.9345.5945.9245.8946.2247.6246.7646.6146.92

46.3346.3546.5746.8646.6046.3046.7747.1347.38

s 1

O)2

Finance

55.2556.6561.4264.2573.5271.9961.5962.8469.6680.5988.6686.2285.6686.5793.2299.07

102.45101.2299.6095.75

100.0499.7599.33

100.0898.9395.3995.1897.3095.43

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3

894.63820.23844.40891.41932.92884.36818.41832.11917.27988.71

1,027.761,033.081,064.291,087.431,129.581,168.431,212.861,221.471,213.931,187.98

1,219.951,211.711,201.701,215.081,224.521,189.281,172.911,195.431,191.48

Standard &Poor's

compositeindex (1941-

43 = 10)4

98.2096.02

103.01118.78128.05119.71109.38109.65122.43132.66138.10139.37144.27146.80151.88157.71164.10166.39166.96162.33

167.56167.43165.88167.20167.01162.11160.91163.99162.27

Common st(perce

Dividend-price ratio

4.625.285.475.265.205.816.316.325.635.124.924.934.794.744.594.444.274.264.21

4.244.204.274.174.214.344.394.294.40

Dck yieldstit)5

Earnings-price ratio

10.7912.0313.4612.6611.9611.60

11.26

8.99

8.15

1 Average of daily closing prices.

* Includes 30 SockT^ ^ **" '' ^ *"4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.NoTE.-All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSB).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-

poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 10 months of fiscal year 1983, there was a budget deficit of $179.8 billion, compared to a budgetdeficit of $94.2 billion a year earlier.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

700

600

500


800

700

600

500

-200

-100

-200

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

FISCAL YEARS

1981 1982 1983 1984

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:19721973197419751976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983 (estimates) 1

1984 (estimates):First Concurrent Eesolution, June 23, 1983 2 ....Mid-Session Review, July 1983 l

Cumulative total first 10 months:Fiscal year 1982Fiscal year 1983

Budgetreceipts

207.3230.8263.2279.1298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8599.9

679.6668.4

513.1487.3

Budgetoutlays

230.7245.6267.9324.2364.594.2

400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4809.8

849.5848.1

607.4667.1

Budgetsurplus ordeficit (-)

-23.4-14.8-4.7

-45.266.4

-13.044.9

-48.827.7

-59.6-57.9

-110.6-209.8

-169.9-179.7

94.2-179.8

Off-budgetoutlays

.11.48.17.31.88.7

10.412.514.221.017.316.3

14.0

12.48.4

Totalsurplus ordeficit (— )

23.4— 14.9-6.1

-53.2-73.7-14.7-53.6-59.2-40.2-73.8-78.9

-127.9226.2

-193.7

-106.7-188.2

Federal debt

Gross

437.3468.4486.2544.1631.9646.4709.1780.4833.8914.3

1,003.91,147.01,390.8

1,614.61,611.9

1,094.61,331.6

end of period)

Held by thepublic

323.8343.0346.1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9644.6715.1794.4929.4

1,145.4

1,339.4

886.11,105.8

1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,July 25, 1983.

2 First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983; figures exclude reserve fund items.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.

32


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 10 months of fiscal year 1983, budget receipts were $25.8 billion lower than a year earlier and budgetoutlays were $59.7 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

200

BUDGET RECEIPTS

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

\

OTHER RECEIPTS

CORPORATION INCOME TAXESI I

300

200

100

600

500

400

300

200

100

BUDGET OUTLAYS600

500

400

300

200

100

NONDEFENSE ^+~*

1975 1976 1978 1979 1980

FISCAL YEARS

1981 1982 1983 1984

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars"

Period

Fiscal year or period:1972197319741975 ,1976Transition quarter1977197819791980198119821983 (estimates) l

1984 (estimates) 1

Gumulative total first 10 months:Fiscal year 1982Fiscal year 1983

Total

207.3230.8263.2279.1298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8599.9668.4

513.1487.3

Budget rt

Individualincometaxes

94.7103.2119.0122.4131.638.8

157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.5296.0

244.7234.7

ceipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

32.236.238.640.641.4

8.554.960.065.764.661.149.235.264.1

42.627.6

Other

80.491.4

105.7116.1125.034.0

143.0158.6179.8208.4252.2270.8276.2308.3

225.9225.0

Total

230.7245.6267.9324.2364.594.2

400.5448.4491.0576.7657.2728.4809.8848.1

607.4667.1

Nation

Total

76.674.577.885.689.422.397.5

105.2117.7135.9159.8187.4214.8242.3

155.1173.8

il defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

75.173.277.684.987.921.995.6

103.0115.0132.8156.1182.9208.9235.7

151.4169.4

budget outlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

4.74.15.76.95.62.24.85.96.1

10.711.110.011.013.5

8.27.9

Health andincomesecurity

80.090.4

104.8134.3158.941.0

174.5187.4207.1248.3291.1322.4361.7365.7

268.0302.8

Netinterest

15.517.321.423.226.76.9

29.935.442.652.568.784.789.0

103.5

84.988.8

Other

53.959.358.274.283.921.893.8

114.4117.5129.3126.5123.9133.3123.1

91.293.8

1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,July 25, 1983.

NOTE.—One substantial change was made in the January 1983 Budget in the functional classifi-cation: the interest function was changed to net interest. Formerly, the interest function total includ-ed all Treasury interest payments, including those made to trust funds. The new net interest func-tional total is the amount paid by the Treasury to the public. Intragovernmental payments arenetted out.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $28.7 billion (annual rate) andexpenditures rose $9.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $163.7 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

800

500

400

300

400

— 300

-100

-200

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

1975 1976 1977


1978 1979 1980

CALENDAR YEARS

m

1981

•I

1982

-100

-2001983



Period

Fiscal year:19781979198019811982

Calendar year:19781979198019811982

1981: III.IV

1982: I ;.IIIllIV

1983: I11 r

Total

414.3480.8525.9610.3627.8

431.6493.6540.9627.0617.4

638.8629.2

619.5622.2615.2612.6

623.3652.0

Federal

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

186.5222.6250.4289.3310.4

194.9230.6257.7298.6304.7

308.6303.8

306.5308.5300.6303.0

297.7304.3

Governmer

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

67.376.169.970.551.3

71.374.270.367.546.5

68.261.4

47.648.447.842.1

48.659.0

it receipts

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

27.229.135.553.650.3

28.129.439.056.448.3

55.855.0

49.547.747.948.3

48.656.2

Contribu-tions for

socialinsurance

133.3153.1170.0196.9215.7

137.2159.5173.9204.5217.9

206.2209.1

215.8217.6218.9219.3

228.5232.6

Total

450.4495.6576.5668.1740.0

461.0509.7602.1689.2764.4

701.2725.0

728.0735.4773.5820.9

806.6815.7

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

150.4164.1189.3218.5251.0

153.6168.3197.0229.2-258.7

232.4248.5

249.7244.1261.7279.2

273.5272.7

Federal (

Transferpay-

ments

182.2201.8239.4279.3310.2

185.6209.2251.5286.6321.1

295.3300.1

302.5311.2325.9344.8

340.3345.7

jovernment

Grants-in-aid to

Stateandlocal

govern-ments

74.779.186.790.183.4

77.380.588.787.983.9

86.484.2

82.585.183.085.0

85.886.8

expenditur

Netinterest

paid

33.540.650.767.782.2

35.242.453.473.284.9

75.279.0

79.782.388.689.1

88.491.6

BS

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-

mententer-prises

9.79.9

10.412.513.2

9.59.2

11.512.415.8

12.313.2

13.412.714.222.8

18.617.6

Wageaccruals

lessdisburse-

ments

0.0-.0

.0

.1-.0

.0-.0

.0

.1-.0

.3

.0

-.1.0.0.0

.0-1.3

or deficit

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-36.1-14.8-50.7-57.8

-112.2

-29.5-16.1-61.2-62.2

-147.1

-62.4-95.8

- 108.5-113.2-158.3-208.2

-183.3-163.7

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967 = 100]

Period

19751976197719781979198019811982 P1982: Aug

SeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJune"Julyp

UnitedStates

117.8130.5138.2146.1152.5147.0151.0138.6138.4137.3135.7134.9135.2137.4138.1140.0

r!42.6r!44.4r!46.0148.6

Indu

Canada

140.3148.5152.2157.8167.4164.6167.3149.2151.2146.1141.6142.5140.5148.0

r 151.3r 149.9r!52.5154.8

strial prod

Japan

163.9182.0189.7201.1215.3225.2227.5228.4

r229.1r229.7r223.6r228.6r226.6

227.3225.9231.5230.6

r231.1234.0

action (sef

France

139149152154161160157154151154156156155156156155156159

isonally adju

Germany

137.1149.1152.0154.1161.8162.3159.9156.3155154152152151154154157155155

sted)

Italy

127.6143.5145.1147.9157.6166.5162.7159.0127.5153.6147.4152.0150.0150.0148.9148.2141.5

r 148.5145.8

United

114.3117.4123.2127.4132.2123.7118.8

rl!9.6119.8120.1119.7117.8120.5

r!20.7r 122.9r!21.3r!21.7r!22.4119.8

UnitedStates l

161.2170.5181.5195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1292.8293.3294.1293.6292.4

293.1293.2293.4295.5297.1298.1299.3

Canada

160.1172.1185.9202.5221.0243.5273.9303.4

307.6309.2311.2313.3313.4312.5313.9317.1317.1317.9321.5

Consume

Japan

205.8224.9243.0252.3261.3282.2296.2304.1303.8309.1310.0306.6306.0306.6305.5307.5308.6312.0309.7

?r prices (i

France

178.9196.1214.5233.9259.1294.2332.7

r373.1

375.9377.5379.5383.2386.4

390.1392.9396.5401.8404.5406.9

madjusted)

Germany

144.2150.4155.9160.2166.8175.9186.3196.2197.3197.9198.5198.9199.4199.8200.0199.8200.3201.1201.8

Italy

186.8218.1255.2286.2328.5398.0472.4549.4563.4571.3582.7590.3594.4

602.7610.5616.0622.2628.2632.2

UnitedKingdom

216.5252.4292.4316.6359.0423.6473.9514.7519.0518.7521.3523.9522.9523.5525.8526.7534.1536.4537.7540.6

1 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis-

tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in InternationalEconomic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthly average:1975*1976*1977*1978*1979*1980

19811982

1982: JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1983: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulv

Totaldomestic

andforeignexports

8,9719,602

10,10311,97315,15518,386

19,47317,683

18,82318,06017,46317,32016,67115,85216,347

17,39316,32616,75216,07415,56617,00816,629

Merc

Total 2

8,8479,4629,919

11,76214,88618,043

19,07517,256

18,38717,67117,14316,58416,28415,47615,913

17,00715,98416,33515,72215,18616,65216,300

handise expo

Domestic

Food,bever-

ages, andtobacco

1,3991,4361,3301,7172,0492,534

2,7672,248

2,4181,9022,1531,9262,1282,0511,966

2,3122,2242,3072,0792,0102,1942,114

its1

exports

Grademateri-als and

fuels

I

1,2661,3411,5481,7462,3522,810

2,7522,793

2,8282,6982,6942,7512,6882,4402,420

2,7602,4432,3752,5492,2792,3772,382

Manu-facturedgoods

^.a.s. valu<

5,9136,4376,6797,8739,716

11,991

12,85711,643

12,53612,53611,80411,33110,94210,48410,648

11,26310,74311,06210,54510,33111,56011,125

Total 2

8,20910,29012,53314,56317,45520,406

21,74820,329

21,18719,84922,93020,58121,00618,89219,154

20,02119,01519,52519,77121,51421,024

Merc

Gen

Pood,bever-

ages, andtobacco

827991

1,1861,3121,4781,546

Customs

1,5291,485

1,5371,4361,6811,7011,6861,4991,414

1,5821,5301,4791,6121,6521,456

landise imp

eral import

Crudemateri-als and

fuels

2,7163,4574,4634,3255,9497,831

value

7,7396,200

6,1756,6717,1955,9176,7275,7856,158

5,9114,4134,6554,5115,8455,562

orts

s 3

Manu-facturedgoods

4,2575,3986,3798,3609,352

10,427

11,87312,002

12,83011,20013,45612,30411,90310,97810,988

11,98112,56112,67212,85613,35113,249

Total(c.Lf.value)

8,82311,04213,36815,50418,51921,415

22,77921,240

22,12920,75623,99221,51821,93219,73720,002

20,96219,90620,38120,67522,47321,96422,988

Merch

Exports/f „ Q \less

imports(customs

value)

-2,275-2,647

-2,3641,790

-5,467-3,261-4,335-3,041-2,808

-2,628-2,689-2,774-3,697-5,948-4,016

andise trade

Exports(f.a.8.)less

imports(f.a.s.)

762-688

-2,430-2,590-2,300-2,020

mlance

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports(c.i.f.)

148-1,440-3,265-3,530-3,364-3,030

-3,306-3,558

-3,306-2,697-6,529-4,198-5,261-3,885-3,655

-3,569-3,580-3,630-4,601-6,907-4,956-6,359

1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mili-tary Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginningJanuary 1978.

2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal-ance.

'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and tradebalance include trade of the Virgin Islands.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. <j n


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the second quarter, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $14.8 billion from $8.7 billion in the first quarter. Inthe first quarter the current account deficit fell to $3.0 billion from $6.6 billion in the fourth quarter.



-10

-15

-5

-10

-151975 1983


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: mIV

1982: InfflIV

1983: Ip.ILp

Exports

98,306107,088114,745120,816142,054184,473224,237237,019211,217

57,81258,383

55,63654,99652,24148,344

49,56349,029

Merchandise l

Imports

-103,811-98,185

-124,228-151,907-176,020-212,028-249,781-265,086-247,606

-66,214-66,224

-61,739-60,850-65,319-59,698

-58,301-63,869

j

Netbalance

-5,5058,903

-9,483-31,091-33,966-27,555-25,544-28,067

36,389

-8,402-7,841

-6,103-5,85413,078

-11,354

-8,73814,840

In

Receipts

27,58725,35129,28632,17942,24564,13272,44586,24384,146

22,04321,801

20,76122,31621,56919,499

17,814

vestment ineon

Payments

- 12,084-12,564-13,311

14,217-21,680

32,914-42,875-52,760-56,842

13,888-12,892

-13,824-14,779-14,748-13,491

-12,579

ae3

Net

15,50312,78715,97517,96220,56531,21829,57033,48327,304

8,1558,909

6,9377,5376,8216,008

5,235

Netmilitarytransac-

tions

-1,653746559

1,528621

-1,778-2,286-1,355

179

179-515

-5120154

-26

702

Nettravel andtranspor-

tationreceipts

-3,1842,792

-2,558-3,565-3,573-2,935-1,434

-598-2,095

-184-30

-208-561-557-769

-723

Otherservices,

net3

3,9864,5984,7115,2726,0135,7357,1728,0607,822

2,0531,988

2,0501,9141,9061,951

2,042

Balanceon goods

andservices l

9,14722,7499,205

-9,894-10,340

4,6867,477

11,523-3,177

1,8012,571

2,6253,236

-4,854-4,190

-1,482

Remit-tances,

pensions,and otherunilateral

trans-fers1

-7,186-4,613-4,998-4,617-5,106-5,649-7,056-6,931-8,034

-1,884-1,986

-2,061-1,802-1,742-2,431

-1,563

Balanceon

currentaccount

1,96218,1364,207

-14,511-15,446

-964421

4,592-11,211

-83585

5641,434

-6,596-6,621

-3,045

1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.


36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $17.5 billion in the first quarter of1983, unchanged from the fourth-quarter increase. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banksincreased $12.8 billion in the first quarter, compared with a $5.1 billion increase in the fourth quarter.


40

20

-20

-40

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET

/, V

-60 I I I I1975

40

20

-20

-40

-601983


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

197419751976197719781979198019811982

1981: TTTIV

1982: InmIV

1983: Ip

t

Total

-34,745-39,703-51,269-34,785-61,130-64,331-86,052

-110,601-118,045

-17,279-47,817

-31,456-40,934-26,099-19,553

-21,783

U.S. assetsincrease /capita

U.S.officialreserve

assets * 2

-1,467849

-2,558375732

-1,133-8,155-5,175-4,965

-4262

-1,089-1,132

-794-1,950

-787

abroad, netil outflow (— )

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

366-3,474

4,214-3,693-4,660-3,746-5,140-5,078-5,732

-1,274973

-807-1,489-2,502

-934

-1,060

1

U.S.privateassets

33,643-35,380

44,498-30,717

57,202-59,453-72,757

-100,348-107,348

- 16,00147,106

29,560-38,313-22,803-16,670

- 19,936

Foreign[increase

Total

34,24115,67036,51851,31964,03638,75254,92280,67887,866

16,73141,551

27,12431,61217,61311,517

17,275

assets in the 1;/ capital inflov

Foreignofficialassets

10,5467,027

17,69336,81633,678

-13,66515,5665,4303,172

-5,8808,792

-3,0611,9302,6421,661

-37

J.S., netv (+)] 2

Otherforeignassets

23,6968,643

18,82614,50330,35852,41639,35675,24884,694

22,61132,760

30,18529,68214,9729,855

17,312

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDKs)

1,1391,1521,093

Statistical d

Total (sumof the items

with signreversed)

-1,4585,897

10,544-2,02312,54025,40429,55624,23841,390

6325,680

3,7687,887

15,08214,657

7,554

.screpancy

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

-1,1451,350

729881

-1,1901,042

-340

U.S. official

assets, net 1

(unadjusted,end ofperiod)

15,88316,22618,74719,31218,65018,95626,75630,07433,958

29,71530,074

29,94430,67130,99333,958

34,261

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING P*

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business. 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction v 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices f 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEYf CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock Measures and Liquid Assets 26Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets 27Consumer Installment Credit 27Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

p Preliminary.r Revised.... Not available (also, not applicable).

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign).

Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing.

38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 0—24-318
