economic growth & human development
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Why is growth not transforming into human development?TRANSCRIPT
Why is growth not transforming into human development?
Consultation on the 2014 Human Development Report NUST, 30-31 October 2013
Patterns Governing Intra-country Growth Disparities
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
CountryPopulation ages 15-64 (% of total)
Population ages 0-14 (%
of total)
Afghanistan 50.3 47.4Bhutan 66.8 28.5Bangladesh 64.7 30.6Nepal 59.4 35.6Pakistan 61.3 34.3India 65.4 29.4Sri Lanka 66.6 25.2Maldives 66.0 29.0
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)
2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration
CountryUrban
population (% of total)
Population in urban agglomerations of
more than 1 million (% of total
population)
Afghanistan 23.9 10.7Bhutan 36.3 -Bangladesh 28.9 14.9Nepal 17.3 -Pakistan 36.5 19.2India 31.7 12.7Sri Lanka 15.2 -Maldives 42.2 -
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)
5
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20092012
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
South Asia Real GDP Growth
Perc
enta
ge
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20092012
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
Perc
enta
ge
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20092012
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
Perc
enta
ge
19611964
19671970
19731976
19791982
19851988
19911994
19972000
20032006
20092012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Services, value added (annual % growth)
Perc
enta
ge
3. Rising Share of Services Sector
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2.53.9
2.9 3 3.6 3.4 3.4 3
012345
CPIA public sector management and institutions rating (1=low to 6=high)
1.5
3.53
2.5
3.5 3.5 3.53
0
1
2
3
4
CPIA property rights and rule-based governance rating 2012
(1=low to 6=high)
2
4.5
2.5 2.53.5
3 3 3
012345
CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
2012 (1=low to 6=high)
45
19.9
46.6
12.4
47.4
49.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Nepal%
of T
otal
Fir
ms
Firms competing against unregistered firms 2009
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
South Asia World0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
17
31
Forest area (% of land area)
Perc
enta
ge
Afghanist
an
Bhutan
Bangladesh
NepalIndia
Sri La
nka
Maldives
Pakistan
0
1
2
3
4
0.230.60
0.340.13
1.66
0.62
3.21
0.95
CO2 Emissions
2009
1972
(met
ric to
ns p
er c
apita
)
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
BangladeshPakistan
IndiaMaldivesSri Lanka
Nepal
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
16.819.9
17.55.6
2418
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
(% of population)AfghanistanBangladesh
BhutanPakistan
IndiaMaldivesSri Lanka
Nepal
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
72.736.7
4259.2
47.29.210.5
39
Infant mortality rate 2011
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
BangladeshPakistan
IndiaMaldivesSri Lanka
Nepal
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
16.819.9
17.55.6
2418
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
(% of population)AfghanistanBangladesh
BhutanPakistan
IndiaMaldivesSri Lanka
Nepal
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
72.736.7
4259.2
47.29.210.5
39
Infant mortality rate 2011
Afghanist
an
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Maldives
Nepal0
50100150200
3.1
70.2
133.5
26.6
168.7
27.0
Borrowers from commercial banks 2011
(per
1,0
00 a
dults
)
AfghanistanBhutan
BangladeshIndia
Pakistan MaldivesSri Lanka
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
New Firm registrations per 1,000 people
7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
GINI index
Income share held by highest 10%
Income share held by lowest
10%
Poverty headcount at $2/day (% of
Population)Afghanistan 27.82 23.21 4.08 -Bhutan 38.06 29.36 2.8 29.8Bangladesh 32.12 27.03 3.9 76.5Pakistan 30.02 26.05 4.36 60.2India 33.9 28.79 3.69 68.8Sri Lanka 36.4 30.03 3.39 23.9Maldives 37.37 28.03 2.71 12.2Nepal 32.82 26.52 3.63 57.3
8. Lacking Participatory Approach
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Afghanist
an
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Sri La
nka
Maldives
Nepal0
1
2
3
4
5
2
43.5
2.53
44.5
4
CPIA gender equality rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high)
Afghanistan
BangladeshNepal
Pakistan
India
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Maldive
s
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Voice and Accountability Index 2011 (1=low to 6=high)
9. Low Redistribution
12
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8.810.0 9.2 9.3 10.4 10.7
12.4 13.2
02468
101214
% o
f GDP
Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011
-0.9-1.3
0.4
-5.1-3.3
-11.7
-7.2
-1.2
-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202
% o
f GDP
Average Budget Deficit 2006-10
7.9 8.3 7.1
12.1
8.8 8.810.2 9.3
0
5
10
15
% G
row
th
Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12
3.5 3.53
3.5 3.54
32.5
012345
CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012Rating (1=low to 6=high)
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
Note: (1=low to 5=high)Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Efficiency of customs clearance
process
Quality of trade and transport-related
infrastructure
Competence and quality of logistics
servicesAfghanistan 2.33 2.0 2.16Bhutan 2.29 2.3 2.42Bangladesh 2.33 2.49 2.44India 2.77 2.87 3.14Pakistan 2.85 2.69 2.77Maldives 2.24 2.47 2.68Sri Lanka 2.58 2.5 2.8Nepal 2.20 1.87 2.12
Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns
14
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth2. Unplanned Urbanization and Agglomeration3. Rising Share of Traditional Services4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions5. Disconnect with Sustainability6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production7. Low levels of Inclusiveness8. Lack of Participatory Approach9. Low Redistribution10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
15
What Next for South Asia?
16
Emerging Mega Trends
1. Empowerment
17
Emerging examples of
individual empowerment
Rising Middle Class
Independent Media
Access to ICTPro-poor legislation
Right to Information
Act
2. Demography
18
Demographic Change
Urban Class
Increased Mobility across Sectors
Rising Internal
Migration
Knowledge Spillovers
Diaspora
3. New Power Centers
19
Power Centers
Civil society
Superior Judiciary
MediaParliamentary Forces
Corporate Sector
20
Game Changers
21
Game Changers
Violent Conflicts
Human & Man-made
disasters
Corruption &
Transparency
Failure to Invest in Human Capital
Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth
22
1. How will these game changers impact the mega trends?
2. Can rural development be separated from traditional structural transformation?
3. Can urban spaces become more inclusive?
4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?