economic growth disparities in asia
DESCRIPTION
Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in South AsiaTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in South Asia
Abid Q. Suleri, Vaqar Ahmed, Muhammed Zeshan, Samavia Batool 6th South Asia Economic Summit
2-4th September, Institute of Policy Studies, SriLanka
![Page 2: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
10 Patterns Governing Intra-country Growth Disparities
![Page 3: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
Country
Population
ages 15-64
(% of total)
Population
ages 0-14 (%
of total)
Afghanistan 50.3 47.4
Bhutan 66.8 28.5
Bangladesh 64.7 30.6
Nepal 59.4 35.6
Pakistan 61.3 34.3
India 65.4 29.4
Sri Lanka 66.6 25.2
Maldives 66.0 29.0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)
![Page 4: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration
Country
Urban
population
(% of total)
Population in urban
agglomerations of
more than 1 million
(% of total
population)
Afghanistan 23.9 10.7
Bhutan 36.3 -
Bangladesh 28.9 14.9
Nepal 17.3 -
Pakistan 36.5 19.2
India 31.7 12.7
Sri Lanka 15.2 -
Maldives 42.2 - Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)
![Page 5: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
South Asia Real GDP Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Services, value added (annual % growth)
3. Rising Share of Services Sector
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
![Page 6: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2.5
3.92.9 3
3.6 3.4 3.4 3
012345
CPIA public sector management and institutions rating (1=low to 6=high)
1.5
3.53
2.5
3.5 3.5 3.53
0
1
2
3
4
CPIA property rights and rule-based governance rating 2012
(1=low to 6=high)
2
4.5
2.5 2.5
3.53 3 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
2012 (1=low to 6=high)
45
19.9
46.6
12.4
47.4
49.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Nepal%
of T
otal
Fir
ms
Firms competing against unregistered firms 2009
![Page 7: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
17
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
South Asia World
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Forest area (% of land area) 0.23
0.60 0.34
0.13
1.66
0.62
3.21
0.95
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
(met
ric
ton
s p
er
cap
ita)
CO2 Emissions
2009
1972
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
![Page 8: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.7
42
59.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
![Page 9: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.7
42
59.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
3.1
70.2
133.5
26.6
168.7
27.0
0
50
100
150
200
(pe
r 1
,00
0 a
du
lts)
Borrowers from commercial banks 2011
0 1 2 3 4
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Maldives
Sri Lanka
New Firm registrations per 1,000 people
![Page 10: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
GINI
index
Income share held
by highest 10%
Income share
held by lowest
10%
Poverty
headcount at
$2/day (% of
Population)
Afghanistan 27.82 23.21 4.08 -
Bhutan 38.06 29.36 2.8 29.8
Bangladesh 32.12 27.03 3.9 76.5
Pakistan 30.02 26.05 4.36 60.2
India 33.9 28.79 3.69 68.8
Sri Lanka 36.4 30.03 3.39 23.9
Maldives 37.37 28.03 2.71 12.2
Nepal 32.82 26.52 3.63 57.3
![Page 11: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
8. Lacking Participatory Approach
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2
4 3.5
2.5 3
4 4.5
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA gender equality rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Voice and Accountability Index 2011 (1=low to 6=high)
![Page 12: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
9. Low Redistribution
12
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8.810.0 9.2 9.3
10.4 10.712.4 13.2
02468
101214
% o
f G
DP
Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011
-0.9-1.3
0.4
-5.1
-3.3
-11.7
-7.2
-1.2
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
% o
f G
DP
Average Budget Deficit 2006-10
7.9 8.37.1
12.1
8.8 8.810.2 9.3
0
5
10
15
% G
row
th
Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12
3.5 3.53
3.5 3.54
32.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012Rating (1=low to 6=high)
![Page 13: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
Note: (1=low to 5=high) Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Efficiency of
customs clearance
process
Quality of trade and
transport-related
infrastructure
Competence and
quality of logistics
services
Afghanistan 2.33 2.0 2.16
Bhutan 2.29 2.3 2.42
Bangladesh 2.33 2.49 2.44
India 2.77 2.87 3.14
Pakistan 2.85 2.69 2.77
Maldives 2.24 2.47 2.68
Sri Lanka 2.58 2.5 2.8
Nepal 2.20 1.87 2.12
![Page 14: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns
14
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
2. Unplanned Urbanization and Agglomeration
3. Rising Share of Traditional Services
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
7. Low levels of Inclusiveness
8. Lack of Participatory Approach
9. Low Redistribution
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
![Page 15: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
What Next for South Asia?
![Page 16: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
Emerging Mega Trends
![Page 17: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. Empowerment
17
Emerging examples of
individual empowerment
Rising Middle Class
Independent Media
Access to ICT Pro-poor
legislation
Right to Information
Act
![Page 18: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2. Demography
18
Demographic Change
Urban Class
Increased Mobility across Sectors
Rising Internal
Migration
Knowledge Spillovers
Diaspora
![Page 19: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
3. New Power Centers
19
Power Centers
Civil society
Superior Judiciary
Media Parliamenta
ry Forces
Corporate Sector
![Page 20: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Game Changers
![Page 21: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Game Changers
Violent Conflicts
Human & Man-made
disasters
Corruption &
Transparency
Failure to Invest in Human Capital
![Page 22: Economic Growth Disparities in Asia](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022051609/5473309db4af9fa30a8b524a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth
22
1. How will these game changers impact the mega trends?
2. Can rural development be separated from traditional structural transformation?
3. How urban spaces can become hubs of domestic commerce?
4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?