economic freedom of the world: 2009 annual report a technical overview of this years report by james...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Freedom of the World: 2009 Annual Report
“A Technical Overview of This Year’s Report”
By James Gwartney and Robert Lawson assisted by Joshua Hall
Measuring Economic Freedom• Economic freedom is complex and
multidimensional, but it can be measured:
• Personal choice
• Freedom to trade, domestically and abroad.
• Freedom to enter and compete in markets.
• Security of Property/Rule of Law
Methodology• We collect data on 141 countries using 42 different
components (grouped into five broad areas).• 0-10 ratings are constructed to measure the degree to
which the country conforms to the free-market ideal.• Third-Party data from World Bank, IMF, Global
Competitiveness Report, IMD, etc.• Objective data
• Survey data
• Transparency is a highly valued part of the project.
5 Areas of Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) Index
1. Size of Government: Expenditures, Taxes, and Enterprises
2. Legal Structure and Security of Property Rights
3. Access to Sound Money 4. Freedom to Trade Internationally 5. Regulation of Credit, Labor, and
Business
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.2.
Highest Economic Freedom Ratings, 2007
Economic Freedom Ratings of Selected Countries, 2007
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.2.
Average Economic Freedom Rating, 1980-2007*
*Chain-linked index.
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.4.
2009 Changes
No Major Changes
Two minor corrections
5B calculation was slightly off
5ciii was incorrectly coded
Only affected 2006 data and have since been corrected.
Future Issues
5Biv - Mandated Cost of Hiring
Based on World Bank’s Doing Business
- measures the cost of all social security taxes, payroll taxes, and any mandated benefits, including vacations and holidays
Future Issue: Changing Components
Problem Variable dropped from DB in 2010 Carried forward last year’s data for now
Why?Harmonization with International Labour Organization (ILO) Conventions
From Doing Business:
“It is important that government actions focus on the needs of the labor force and lower income households as well as those designed to help businesses to survive and grow.”
“Adjusting the scoring in the Doing Business 2010 report (to be launched in September 2009) regarding provisions for fixed term workers and standards for severance payment, mandatory days of rest and night work and holidays, and minimum wage levels, in order to accord favorable scores to worker protection policies that comply with the letter and spirit of the relevant ILO Conventions, recognizing that well-designed worker protections are of benefit to the society as a whole.”
Data Stability
We are about 3rd party data and transparency
The quality of the index is only as good as data available from other sources
This move by DB raises concerns about the long-term stability of many of the data series we rely upon to construct the EFW
Data Stability
Another example is 5Ciii – Bureaucracy Costs
Based on Global Competiveness Report data on product standards and regulations
Is going to be removed from GCR in the near future
Data Quality
From a long-term perspective, the data used in the EFW is richer and of higher quality than it has ever been
Prior to 2003, for example, no Doing Business report
Contributing organizations do a great job in verifying changes in 3rd party data
Data Quality
From a long-term perspective, the data used in the EFW is richer and of higher quality than it has ever been
Prior to 2003, for example, no Doing Business report
Contributing organizations do a great job in verifying changes in 3rd party data
Economic Freedom Research Trends
More research is being done than ever before using the EFW
Over a 1000 citations for all editions on Google Scholar
Much of this research has focused on the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth
Findings are pretty straightforward
What is True in the Raw Data…
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.7.
Is True in the Scholarly Literature
• EF (and changes in EF) are highly correlated with economic growth.• deHaan et al. (2006) survey the literature:
“Most studies analysing the relationship between economic growth and EF have employed cross-country (or panel) growth models...It is clear from these studies that EF seems to have a positive association with growth. None of the studies summarized reports that economic freedom is bad for growth.”
Future Areas of Importance
Economic Freedom and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
(Lipford, JPEnt, 2007)
(DeHaan et al., EFW, 2009)
Case Studies in EF Change
(Beaulier, Cato Journal, 2003)
Zimbabwe?
Future Areas of Importance
Long-term changes in EF components
The move to volunteer armies around the world
The decline in monetary inflation
The Relationship between EF and Democracy
(Lawson and Clark, 2009)
Which comes first question
Economic Freedom and Political Rights/Civil Liberties
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.15. [Note: Lower numerical values indicate greater political rights and civil liberties.]
Also, Income Inequality
Source: EFW 2009, Exhibit 1.10.
