economic feasibility study for highway 640
TRANSCRIPT
ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY
STUDY FOR HIGHWAY
640
Objective of Study
to provide a decision-making tool between our two investment alternatives
to study and analyze alternatives and recommend the best choice of
investment. Finally to perform an assessment analysis for the alternative
through sensitivity analysis.
Moreover, the objective of choosing the Sustainable Highway as one of the
alternatives is to play a leading role in a sustainable future. In addition, to
improve the quality of highway design and so reduce to the cost of operations
on the long term.
Alternative Consideration
Alternative 1
Traditional Highway Design
Alternative 2
Sustainable Highway Design
Alternative Consideration
Alternative 1
Regular Asphalt Pavement
Electric Lightning Poles
No Environmental landscaping
Regular Tolls Machines
Alternative 2
Concrete PCCP Pavement
Solar Panel Lightning poles
Environmental landscaping
Electronic Toll Collection System
Higher useful life
Higher traffic capacity
Lower O&M costs
Data & Assumptions- Alternative 1 Initial Cost = $407,176,368 CAD
Alternative 1- INTIAL
COSTS Description Unit
Unit
cost ($) Cost ($)
Clearing of vegetation Clearing and grubbing m^2 3 9720000
Grading; Earth worksEarth excavation or fill
m^327.06 14650000
%
LandscapingSodding and top soil m^2 3.52 11404800
Top soil m^3 2.67 2560000
Drainage of the right of
the way
Curb and Gutter m 360 38880000
500 mm pipe culvert + end
sections m249 26892000
1500 mm wide box culvert m 350 37800000
storm water sweres m 65 7020000
Guard rails and safety
appurtenant
Concrete median m 313 33804000
Steel guardrail at shoulder m 56 6048000
3 cable guard rail at
shoulder m10 1080000
Fencing and gates Chain link fence m 15 1620000
Wire fence m 9.03 975240
Lighting PolesHight mast Piece 3000 600000
Standard Piece 1300 10920000
Toll Booth and Gates
Traffic controlPainting of taraffic control
lines Km 576 62208
TOTAL 204036248
Pavement
layers
Description of payment
layerAmount
Quantit
y per
Km
Price per
unit per
2 lane
8 lane
total in
HIGHWAY
407
Cost/ Km Total cost
surface H1-1. Mm(t) 40 750 84.75 339 254250 27459000
BinderMedium Binder Duty,
mm(t)60 1125 66.2 264.8 297900
32173200
Extra
layer
Medium Binder Duty,
mm(t)60 1125 66.2 264.8 297900
32173200
Base Granular A, mm(t) 150 6991 16.04 64.16 448542.5648442596.4
8
Subbase Granular A, mm(t) 450 15206 8.27 33.08 503014.4854325563.8
4
Shoulder H1-1 . Mm(t) 40 100 84.75 339 33900 3661200
ShoulderMedium Binder Duty,
mm(t)50 125 66.2 264.8 33100
3574800
Subgradesubgrade improvement,
% area(m^2)500 6.16 24.64 12320
1330560
TOTAL203140120.
3
Data & Assumptions- Alternative 2 Initial Cost = $459,123,752 CAD
Pavement
layers
Description of payment layer,
Amount ( quantity)
Quantity
per Km
Price per
unit per
2 lane
8 lane
total in
HIGHWAY
407
Cost per Km Total cost Total cost
surface PCCP ( 120mm ) (t) 750 94.92 379.68 284760 30754080 27459000
Binder Medium Binder Duty, mm(t) 1125 66.2 264.8 29790032173200 32173200
Extra layer Medium Binder Duty, mm(t) 1125 66.2 264.8 29790032173200 32173200
Base Granular A, mm(t) 6991 16.04 64.16 448542.5648442596 48442596.48
Subbase Granular A, mm(t) 15206 8.27 33.08 503014.4854325564 54325563.84
Shoulder PCCP ( 120mm ) (t) 100 94.92 379.68 37968 4100544 3661200
Shoulder Medium Binder Duty, mm(t) 125 66.2 264.8 331003574800 3574800
Subgradesubgrade improvement, %
area(m^2)500 6.16 24.64 12320
1330560 1330560
TOTAL 206874544 203140120.3
INTIAL COSTS Description Unitunit cost
($)quantity Cost
Cleraring of
vegeterianClearing and grubbing m^2 3 9720000
Grading; Earth
works
Earth excavation or fill m^3 27.06 14650000
Percent of rock excavation or
fill%
LandscapingSodding and top soil m^2 4.22 13685760
Top soil m^3 3.2 3072000
Drainage of the
right of the way
Curb and Gutter m 360 108000 38880000
500 mm pipe culvert + end
sectionsm 249 108000 26892000
1500 mm wide box culvert m 350 108000 37800000
bioretention swale drain km 50000 108 5400000
Guard rails and
safety appurtenats
Concrete median m 313 108000 33804000
Steel guardrail at shoulder m 56 108000 6048000
3 cable guard rail at shoulder m 10 108000 1080000
Fencicng and gatesChain link fence m 15 108000 1620000
Wire fence m 9.03 108000 975240
Lighting Solar Panel Lights Piece 1700 16800 28560000
Electronic Tolling
SystemPiece 50 600000 30000000
Traffic controlPainting of taraffic control
linesKm 576 108 62208
TOTAL 252249208
Annual Operation & Maintenance Expenses –
Alternative 1Operation and Maintenace Costs for Traditianl Highway Construction Option
year
System Operation
Expenses
Customer
Operation
Expenses
Highway
Maintenance
Expenses
General and
Admistration
Expenses
Contract
Expenses Total Expense year EOY
2015 0 2015 0
2016 37,513,000.00 77,400,000.00 3,513,407.79 23,000,000.00 6,900,000.00 (148,326,407.79) 2016 1
2017 38,214,493.10 78,847,380.00 3,579,108.51 23,430,100.00 7,029,030.00 (151,100,111.61) 2017 2
2018 38,929,104.12 80,321,826.01 3,646,037.84 23,868,242.87 7,160,472.86 (153,925,683.70) 2018 3
2019 39,657,078.37 81,823,844.15 3,714,218.75 24,314,579.01 7,294,373.70 (156,804,093.98) 2019 4
2020 40,398,665.73 83,353,950.04 3,783,674.64 24,769,261.64 7,430,778.49 (159,736,330.54) 2020 5
2021 41,154,120.78 84,912,668.90 3,854,429.35 25,232,446.83 7,569,734.05 (162,723,399.92) 2021 6
2022 41,923,702.84 86,500,535.81 3,926,507.18 25,704,293.59 7,711,288.08 (165,766,327.50) 2022 7
2023 42,707,676.08 88,118,095.83 3,999,932.87 26,184,963.88 7,855,489.16 (168,866,157.82) 2023 8
2024 43,506,309.63 89,765,904.22 4,074,731.61 26,674,622.70 8,002,386.81 (172,023,954.98) 2024 9
2025 44,319,877.62 91,444,526.63 4,150,929.09 27,173,438.15 8,152,031.44 (175,240,802.93) 2025 10
2026 45,148,659.33 93,154,539.28 4,228,551.47 27,681,581.44 8,304,474.43 (178,517,805.95) 2026 11
2027 45,992,939.26 94,896,529.17 4,307,625.38 28,199,227.01 8,459,768.10 (181,856,088.92) 2027 12
2028 46,853,007.22 96,671,094.26 4,388,177.97 28,726,552.56 8,617,965.77 (185,256,797.78) 2028 13
2029 47,729,158.46 98,478,843.72 4,470,236.90 29,263,739.09 8,779,121.73 (188,721,099.90) 2029 14
2030 48,621,693.72 100,320,398.10 4,553,830.33 29,810,971.01 8,943,291.30 (192,250,184.47) 2030 15
2031 49,530,919.39 102,196,389.55 4,638,986.96 30,368,436.17 9,110,530.85 (195,845,262.92) 2031 16
2032 50,457,147.59 104,107,462.03 4,725,736.02 30,936,325.93 9,280,897.78 (199,507,569.34) 2032 17
2033 51,400,696.25 106,054,271.57 4,814,107.28 31,514,835.22 9,454,450.57 (203,238,360.88) 2033 18
2034 52,361,889.27 108,037,486.45 4,904,131.08 32,104,162.64 9,631,248.79 (207,038,918.23) 2034 19
2035 53,341,056.59 110,057,787.45 4,995,838.34 32,704,510.48 9,811,353.14 (210,910,546.00) 2035 20
2036 54,338,534.35 112,115,868.07 5,089,260.51 33,316,084.83 9,994,825.45 (214,854,573.21) 2036 21
2037 55,354,664.95 114,212,434.80 5,184,429.68 33,939,095.61 10,181,728.68 (218,872,353.73) 2037 22
2038 56,389,797.18 116,348,207.33 5,281,378.52 34,573,756.70 10,372,127.01 (222,965,266.75) 2038 23
2039 57,444,286.39 118,523,918.81 5,380,140.30 35,220,285.95 10,566,085.79 (227,134,717.23) 2039 24
2040 58,518,494.54 120,740,316.09 5,480,748.92 35,878,905.30 10,763,671.59 (231,382,136.45) 2040 25
2041 59,612,790.39 122,998,160.00 5,583,238.93 36,549,840.83 10,964,952.25 (235,708,982.40) 2041 26
2042 60,727,549.57 125,298,225.60 5,687,645.49 37,233,322.85 11,169,996.86 (240,116,740.37) 2042 27
2043 61,863,154.75 127,641,302.41 5,794,004.47 37,929,585.99 11,378,875.80 (244,606,923.41) 2043 28
2044 63,019,995.74 130,028,194.77 5,902,352.35 38,638,869.25 11,591,660.77 (249,181,072.88) 2044 29
2045 64,198,469.66 132,459,722.01 6,012,726.34 39,361,416.10 11,808,424.83 (253,840,758.94) 2045 30 (300,000,000.00)
(250,000,000.00)
(200,000,000.00)
(150,000,000.00)
(100,000,000.00)
Annual Operation & Maintenance Expenses –
Alternative 2Operation and Maintenace Costs for Traditianl Highway Construction Option
year
System
Operation
Expenses
Customer
Operation
Expenses
Highway
Maintenance
Expenses
General and
Admistration
Expenses
Contract
Expenses Total Expense year EOY
2015 - 2015 0
2016 16,300,000.00 77,400,000.00 4,797,407.79 23,000,000.00 6,900,000.00 (128,397,407.79) 2016 1
2017 16,604,810.00 78,847,380.00 4,887,119.31 23,430,100.00 7,029,030.00 (130,798,439.31) 2017 2
2018 16,915,319.95 80,321,826.01 4,978,508.44 23,868,242.87 7,160,472.86 (133,244,370.13) 2018 3
2019 17,231,636.43 81,823,844.15 5,071,606.55 24,314,579.01 7,294,373.70 (135,736,039.85) 2019 4
2020 17,553,868.03 83,353,950.04 5,166,445.59 24,769,261.64 7,430,778.49 (138,274,303.79) 2020 5
2021 17,882,125.36 84,912,668.90 5,263,058.12 25,232,446.83 7,569,734.05 (140,860,033.27) 2021 6
2022 18,216,521.11 86,500,535.81 5,824,381.93 25,704,293.59 7,711,288.08 (143,957,020.52) 2022 7
2023 18,557,170.05 88,118,095.83 5,461,736.94 26,184,963.88 7,855,489.16 (146,177,455.86) 2023 8
2024 18,904,189.13 89,765,904.22 5,563,871.42 26,674,622.70 8,002,386.81 (148,910,974.29) 2024 9
2025 19,257,697.47 91,444,526.63 5,667,915.81 27,173,438.15 8,152,031.44 (151,695,609.51) 2025 10
2026 19,617,816.41 93,154,539.28 3,466,469.11 27,681,581.44 8,304,474.43 (152,224,880.67) 2026 11
2027 19,984,669.58 94,896,529.17 5,881,877.88 28,199,227.01 8,459,768.10 (157,422,071.74) 2027 12
2028 20,358,382.90 96,671,094.26 5,991,868.99 28,726,552.56 8,617,965.77 (160,365,864.48) 2028 13
2029 20,739,084.66 98,478,843.72 6,103,916.95 29,263,739.09 8,779,121.73 (163,364,706.15) 2029 14
2030 21,126,905.54 100,320,398.10 65,221,924.71 29,810,971.01 8,943,291.30 (225,423,490.67) 2030 15
2031 21,521,978.68 102,196,389.55 6,334,337.92 30,368,436.17 9,110,530.85 (169,531,673.16) 2031 16
2032 21,924,439.68 104,107,462.03 6,452,790.04 30,936,325.93 9,280,897.78 (172,701,915.45) 2032 17
2033 22,334,426.70 106,054,271.57 6,573,457.21 31,514,835.22 9,454,450.57 (175,931,441.27) 2033 18
2034 22,752,080.48 108,037,486.45 6,696,380.86 32,104,162.64 9,631,248.79 (179,221,359.22) 2034 19
2035 23,177,544.38 110,057,787.45 6,821,603.18 32,704,510.48 9,811,353.14 (182,572,798.64) 2035 20
2036 23,610,964.46 112,115,868.07 13,291,000.01 33,316,084.83 9,994,825.45 (192,328,742.82) 2036 21
2037 24,052,489.50 114,212,434.80 7,079,116.59 33,939,095.61 10,181,728.68 (189,464,865.19) 2037 22
2038 24,502,271.05 116,348,207.33 7,211,496.07 34,573,756.70 10,372,127.01 (193,007,858.17) 2038 23
2039 24,960,463.52 118,523,918.81 7,346,351.04 35,220,285.95 10,566,085.79 (196,617,105.11) 2039 24
2040 25,427,224.19 120,740,316.09 7,483,727.81 35,878,905.30 10,763,671.59 (200,293,844.98) 2040 25
2041 25,902,713.28 122,998,160.00 7,623,673.52 36,549,840.83 10,964,952.25 (204,039,339.88) 2041 26
2042 26,387,094.02 125,298,225.60 7,766,236.21 37,233,322.85 11,169,996.86 (207,854,875.54) 2042 27
2043 26,880,532.68 127,641,302.41 7,911,464.83 37,929,585.99 11,378,875.80 (211,741,761.71) 2043 28
2044 27,383,198.64 130,028,194.77 84,536,039.43 38,638,869.25 11,591,660.77 (292,177,962.86) 2044 29
2045 27,895,264.45 132,459,722.01 8,210,120.18 39,361,416.10 11,808,424.83 (219,734,947.57) 2045 30 (350,000,000.00)
(300,000,000.00)
(250,000,000.00)
(200,000,000.00)
(150,000,000.00)
(100,000,000.00)
Revenues- Alternative 1
Alternative 1 Alternative 2
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
450000000
500000000
Annual
Revenues
($)
Year
TOTAL REVENU Over Life Cycle of Project- Traditional Highway
0
100000000
200000000
300000000
400000000
500000000
600000000
700000000
Annual
Revenues
($)
Year
TOTAL REVENU Over Life Cycle of Project- Sustainable Highway
General Project Assumptions
Assumption Reference
MARR 3.95%
Based on the Inflation rate & Real
interest rate
Inflation Rate 1.07 Inflation Canada
Depreciation Rate 8% CCA Classes- Canada Revenue Agency
Corporate Tax
Rate 26.5%
Canada Revenue Agency
ATMARR 3% Based on MARR
Planning Horizon 30 years -
Bank Loan Interest
Rate
6% Highway 407 Ontario
Methods of Evaluation
The 8 Steps of a Systematic Economic Analysis
Technique:
1. Identify the alternatives
2. Define the planning horizon
3. Specify the discount rate
4. Estimate the cash flows (BTCF)
5. Determine the After Tax Cash Flow (ATCF)
6. Compare the alternatives
7. Perform supplementary analyses
8. Select the preferred investment
2. Defining The Planning Horizon
The planning horizon is the amount of time an organization will look into the future
when preparing a strategic plan.
Four methods:
1. LCM
2. Longest Life
3. Shortest Life
4. Organizational needs
The planning horizon is estimated according to our “Firm’s need” decision based on
our contract duration period of 30 years, rather than the “Longest Life” planning
horizon which equals to 60 years.
3. Specify the discount rate
The minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) is the interest rate that a firm
wished to earn on its investment
In order to calculate the value of MARR, the following equation is used:
(1 + MARR) = (1 + r) * (1+ f) where,
r = Real Interest rate
f = Inflation Rate
Real Interest Rate = 2.85% Annual Inflation Rate = 1.07% (Inflation Canada 2015(CPI))
From the equation, MARR = 3.95%
4. Estimate The Before Tax Cash Flow (BTCF)
Bank Loan Cash Flow Project Cash Flow
Bank Loan Cash Flow
Financing Plan A Financing Plan B
BANK Loan Repayment Plans
Four loan repayment plans are evaluated:
1. Pay interest due at end of each year, and principal at end of year 30.
2. Make equal end-of-period principal payments of $10,179,409.21 and pay
interest each period on the unpaid balance at the beginning of the period.
3. Make 30 equal end-of-period payments over the loan period.
4. Make no payment until the end of the loan period.
Corporate interest rate of 6% compounded annually.
Method #2 has been chosen: Make equal end-of-period principal payments of
$10,179,409.21 and pay interest due at the end of each period. The interest
of each period is the interest on the unpaid balance at the beginning of the
year.
Tabular Method- Alternative 1
Using the Tabular Method,
the annual payment
(includes the principal &
interest) is calculated
using the annual worth
equation
Using The Tabular method,
the loan payment schedule
is constructed showing the
remaining balance at the
end of each year, Interest
payment and Principal
payment.
The payment will start
after the first year when
the construction phase is
over.
Loan Repayment Cash Flow- Alternative 1
(50,000,000.00)
-
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
Bank L
oan C
ash
Flo
w (
$)
Year
Tabular Method- Alternative 2
Using the Tabular Method,
the annual payment
(includes the principal &
interest) is calculated
using the annual worth
equation
Using The Tabular method,
the loan payment schedule
is constructed showing the
remaining balance at the
end of each year, Interest
payment and Principal
payment.
The payment will start
after the first year when
the construction phase is
over.
Loan Repayment Cash Flow- Alternative 2
(100,000,000.00)
(50,000,000.00)
-
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Bank L
oan C
ash
Flo
w (
$)
Year
Project Cash Flow
Cash flows are key to discounted cash flow valuations. To measure cash flows,
the following parameters have to be taken into consideration:
1. Specify the initial investment.
2. Specify the discount rate
3. Determine the salvage value
4. Determine the annual operating & maintenance expenses.
5. Determine the annual net income.
6. Determine the net cash flow in each year.
Project Cash Flow
Alternative 1 Alternative 2
(500,000,000.00)
(400,000,000.00)
(300,000,000.00)
(200,000,000.00)
(100,000,000.00)
-
100,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Net
Befo
re T
ax C
ash
Flo
w($
)
End Of Year (EOY)
BTCF Traditional Highway-Alternative 1
(600,000,000.00)
(400,000,000.00)
(200,000,000.00)
-
200,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Net
Befo
re T
ax C
ash
Flo
w($
)
End Of Year (EOY)
BTCF Sustainable Highway
5. After Tax Cash Flow Analysis (ATCF)
INCOME TAX =Taxable income * Tax Rate
ATCF = Before Tax CF – income tax
MARR = ATMARR/ (1 – tax rate)
4% = ATMARR/ (1-26.5%)
ATMARR= 3%
CAA Depreciation Method
CAA Depreciation
The CCA rate for
highways is 8% in
class 17
Planning horizon =
30 years
ATCF
Salvage Value/Market
Value > Book value @ year
30
6. Compare Between Alternatives
Single project- Investment Worth Measurement:
1. Payback Period (PBP)
2. Present Worth (PW)
3. Annual Worth (AW)
4. Future Worth (FW)
5. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
6. External Rate of Return (ERR)
7. Capitalized worth method (CW)
Accept the investment if:
PW >= 0$
FW >= 0$
AW >= 0$
IRR >= ATMARR
ERR >= ATMARR
6. Compare Between Alternatives
PW analysis results:
The Present Worth (PW) of alternative 2 is $1,954,306,928 CAD and bigger than 0. The PW for Alternative 1 is $544,853,106 CAD and bigger than 0. The two investments are accepted.
AW analysis results:
Based on the Annual Worth analysis (AW) for each alternative, alternatives 1&2 are accepted.
FW analysis results:
Based on the Future Worth analysis (FW), FW1= $ 1 284 519 418,31 > 0, and FW2 =4,607,379,805 > 0, both alternatives are accepted.
IRR analysis:
IRR for Alternative 1- Simple investment (one sign change) is 10.92%
IRR for Alternative 2- Simple investment (one sign change) is 35%
Both alternative IRR’s value are bigger than that of the ATMARR, but IRR Alternative B is higher and so the Sustainable Highway investment is more attractive, since the higher the IRR on a project and the greater the amount by which it exceeds the cost of capital.
Ranking Approach
In order to compare
between
alternatives using
the ranking
approach:
Find PW, of
Alternatives 1&2
Select the one with
the highest positive
PW value. Where;
Present worth (PW)
= F*(1+i) n
Consider the option
of “Doing Nothing”
= not to invest in
either alternatives.
Alternative B - Sustainable highway
is selected; PW(B) is the highest.
Incremental Approach PW (B-A) > 0 select alternative B If IRR (B-A) > ATMARR
PW (B-A) = 0 select either one If IRR (B-A) = ATMARR
PW (B-A) < 0 select alternative A If IRR (B-A) < ATMARRT
PW (A-0) = $497,746,362.54 > 0
Alternative A is better than “do nothing”
PW (B- A) = $1,509,677,166.62 > 0
Alternative (B) is better than Alternative (A)
Alternative B is the best.
Supplementary Analysis 1. Sensitivity Analysis
Case 1
All parameters are fixed except for “ATMARR”.
Shows how change in ATMARR affect PW, AW, FW, and IRR.
$-
$200,000,000.00
$400,000,000.00
$600,000,000.00
$800,000,000.00
$1,000,000,000.00
$1,200,000,000.00
$1,400,000,000.00
Valu
e i
n $
% Error ATMARR
Sensitivity - % Error ATMARR -Alternative 1
PW Traditional
FW Traditional
AW Traditional
IRR Traditional
Supplementary Analysis 1. Sensitivity Analysis
Case 2
All parameters are fixed except for “The total number of highway user”, which
directly affect the revenues.
Shows how change in the Revenue affect on “PW”, “AW”, “FW”, and “IRR”.
$(2,000,000,000.00)
$-
$2,000,000,000.00
$4,000,000,000.00
$6,000,000,000.00
$8,000,000,000.00
$10,000,000,000.00
$12,000,000,000.00
Valu
e in $
% Error No. of Users
Sensitivity - % Error No. of Users -Sustainable
PW Sustainable
FW Sustainable
AW Sustainable
IRR Sustainable
Supplementary Analysis Depreciation Methods Comparison-Alternative 1
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
450000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
AN
NU
AL B
OO
K V
ALU
E (
$)
YEAR
Comparision between Depreciation Methods
streight line
SOYD
CCA
Methods of Loan Repayment Comparison for
Alternative 1
8.Select Preferred Investment
The two alternatives have been evaluated using the 8 Economic Methods of
Evaluation, Alternative 2, the Sustainable Highway design for Highway 640 is
selected, since it best meets the objectives of the study.