economic capsule - march 2014

Economic Capsule

March 2014

Research & Development Unit

ECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS

Commercial Bank Named Sri Lanka’s Best Bank by Global Finance, USA

Now, Fixed Deposits and Loans from Commercial Bank Online Banking

Maximum Deposit Interest Rates Payable by Licensed Finance Companies

FINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS

Sri Lanka Raise USD 500 mn from Sovereign Bond

Sri Lankan Airlines goes for a USD 150 mn Term Facility

External Sector Performance January 2014

Colombo Consumers Price Index, March 2014

ANALYSIS & FORECAST

ADB Outlook for Sri Lanka

C O N T E N T S

B a n k i n g N e w s

< Research & Development Unit >

Commercial Bank Named Sri Lanka’s Best Bank by Global Finance, USA

Commercial Bank has been rated the Best Bank in Sri Lanka by Global Finance, one of the world’s leading publications serving the international business community.

Criteria for choosing the winners included growth in assets, profitability, strategic relationships, customer service, competitive pricing, and innovative products.

In addition, for the first time, a poll of Global Finance’s corporate readership was conducted in order to increase the accuracy and reliability of the results.


Now, Fixed Deposits and Loans from Commercial Bank Online Banking

Online Banking customers of Commercial Bank of Ceylon can now apply for Fixed Deposits, Personal Loans and Housing Loans using Online Banking via www.combank.lk

Commercial Bank’s Online Banking service already offers customers the ability to check balances of their current, savings, investment, loan, and credit card accounts, and to transfer funds between own accounts and to registered third parties who have Commercial Bank accounts, on a real-time basis around the clock.

The Online Banking service also supports bill payments to more than 36 entities in nine categories such as Telephone, Electricity, Water, Credit Cards, Insurance, Pay TV, Schools and Rates.


Maximum Deposit Interest Rates Payable by Licensed Finance Companies

Maximum interest rates that could be offered for deposits accepted, maintained or renewed by the finance companies licensed under the Finance Business Act, No.42 of 2011 has been revised with effect from the 1st April 2014, as follow:

a.The maximum interest rate that could be offered for savings deposits accepted or maintained shall be 7.58% p.a.

b. The maximum interest rates that could be offered for deposits accepted or renewed shall be as follows, −For maturity period of one year or less - 11.01% p.a. −For maturity period of over one year and up to three years - 12.01% p.a. −For maturity period of over three years - 13.51% p.a.

In case where a savings or fixed deposit is made by a person who is over fifty five (55) years of age, a finance company may pay an additional interest rate of one per cent above the maximum interest rates as specified in (a) and (b) above.

E c o n o m i c & B u s i n e s s N e w s


Sri Lanka Raise USD 500 mn from Sovereign Bond

Year Amount(USD mn) Period Interest

Rate %

2007 500 5 year 8.25

2009 500 5 year 7.40

2011 1000 10 year 6.25

2012 1000 10 year 5.875

2014 Jan 1000 5 year 6.00

2014 Apr 500 5 year 5.125

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), launched and priced a USD 500 mn 5-year International Sovereign Bond (Issue) on 07.04.2014 at a yield of 5.125 % p.a. which was the lowest among all the US Dollar benchmark offering by Sri Lanka in the international bond markets.

The Issue was the seventh benchmark offering by Sri Lanka since 2007. Citigroup, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited and Standard Chartered Bank acted as Joint Lead Managers/Bookrunners on the transaction.

Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service and Standard and Poor’s have rated the Issue at 'BB-', ‘B1’ and ‘B+' respectively.

Cont…


Sri Lanka Raise USD 500 mn from Sovereign Bond (cont…)

The Issue was announced on April 7, 2014 with an initial price guidance of 5.50 % p.a. With the post announcement interest from investors across Asia, Middle-East, Europe and the USA, Sri Lanka priced the Issue at a yield of 5.125 %.

The final order book stood at US$ 4.25 billion, an oversubscription ratio of 8.3 times, from 287 accounts, achieved within a six-hour bookbuild period.

Distribution of investors was very well diversified, with Asia taking 32 %, Europe 22 % and the US at 46 %.

Global Fund Managers were the largest investors in the transaction, representing 81 %, with Banks, Private Banks and insurance agencies taking 13 %, 3 % and 3 % respectively.


Sri Lankan Airlines goes for a USD 150 mn Term Facility

Standard Chartered has acted as the sole structuring bank, joint mandated lead arranger, account bank, agency and security trustee and book-runner for a USD 150 mn equivalent multi-currency senior secured Islamic structured term financing facility for Sri Lankan Airlines.

The facility is partially secured by a Government guarantee with preferential access to the airlines IATA receivables from a number of countries.

“The proceeds of the facility will be used towards the refinancing of an existing facility and provide additional capital to support the airlines re-fleeting exercise.


External Sector PerformanceJanuary 2014

CategoryJanuary

2013US$ mn

January2014

US$ mn

GrowthJanuary

(%)Exports 728.7 898.0 23.2 Agricultural Products 167.0 203.2 21.6 Tea 101.0 116.1 14.9

Industrial Products 559.7 691.6 23.6

Textiles and Garments 333.9 412.0 23.4

Mineral Products 1.0 2.1 105.7

Imports 1,532.2 1,653.9 7.9

Consumer Goods 246.8 253.6 2.7

Intermediate Goods 844.7 1,033.2 22.3

Fuel 291.2 489.6 68.1

Investment Goods 440.2 366.3 -16.8

Deficit in the Trade Account -803.6 -755.9 -5.9

The EU and USA continued to be the major markets for textiles and garments of Sri Lanka representing around 85 % of total garment exports.

Earnings from gems grew substantially by 93 %, year-on-year, to USD 21 mn.

Expenditure on fuel increased by 68.1 due to higher import of crude oil (by 41.2 %), refined petroleum products (by 85.4 %) and coal (by 79.4 %). The increase in imports of refined petroleum products was due to greater dependence on thermal power generation as hydro power generation declined due to the prevailing adverse weather conditions.

The country’s exports have kicked off 2014 with double-digit growth and, aided by a slower improvement in imports, the trade deficit saw a contraction in January.

Cont…


External Sector PerformanceJanuary 2014 (cont…)

Cont…


External Sector PerformanceJanuary 2014 (cont…)

BOP: During the month of January 2014, the overall BOP is estimated to have recorded a surplus of USD 733 mn.

GOR: Sri Lanka’s gross official reserves amounted to USD 8.0 bn by end January 2014. In terms of months of imports, gross official reserves were equivalent to 5.3, at end January 2014.

Tourism: Tourist arrivals grew at a rate of 32.6 % (y-o-y), to 146,575 in January 2014. Earnings from tourism is estimated to have recorded a y-o-y growth of 32.2 %during January 2014 to USD161.2 mn, compared to the earning of USD 122.0 mn during the corresponding month of 2013.

Workers’ Remittances : Workers’ remittances increased by 10.6 %, y-o-y, to USD 555.5 mn in January 2014 from USD 502.3 mn in January 2013.

FDI’s: FDI inflows in 2013 amounted to USD 1,420 mn compared to USD 1,382 mn in 2012. In terms of sector wise investments, infrastructure, manufacturing and services sectors received the highest FDIs in 2013.


Colombo Consumers Price Index, March 2014

MonthCCPI (%) *CCPI Core (%)

Year on Year (Y-o-Y)

Annual Average (A.A)

Year on Year (Y-o-Y)

Annual Average (A.A)

Feb 14 4.2 6.0 3.1 3.8

Mar 14 4.2 5.7 3.4 3.5

*The price movement excluding Fresh Food, Energy, Transport, Rice and Coconut in the CCPI basket.

Inflation, decelerated further to 5.7 % in March 2014, on an annual average basis, from 6.0 % in February 2014. This declining trend has been observed continuously since June 2013.

Meanwhile, inflation on a year-on-year (YoY) basis remained at 4.2 % in March 2014, which was the same rate recorded in the previous month.

According to CBSL Inflation remained subdued in March 2014 mainly due to low increase in prices of items in the Non-food category.

Analysis & Forecast


ADB Outlook for Sri Lanka GDP: An improved external environment, higher investments, and a recovery in domestic

consumption will sustain a rapid pace of GDP growth in Sri Lanka in the next two years, according to Asian Development Outlook 2014 (ADO).

ADO forecasts growth to reach 7.5% in 2014 and remain at that level in 2015.

“Sri Lanka’s economic performance will further strengthen with the improvement in the external environment over the next two years” according to ADB’s Senior Country Economist for Sri Lanka, Tadateru Hayashi.

“Domestic conditions, with relatively low inflation, improving consumption demand, and a falling fiscal deficit all augur well for a higher growth trajectory.”

Sri Lanka’s economy recorded 7.3% growth in 2013, supported by strengthening domestic demand on an eased monetary policy and a pickup in exports and tourism. Faster growth in wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, banking, insurance and real estate lifted performance in the large service sector providing the impetus for the rebound. Favorable weather helped maintain agricultural growth.

Cont…


ADB Outlook for Sri Lanka (cont…)

Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain in the mid-single digits in 2014 and 2015. Broadly steady international fuel and stable food prices assuming normal weather will help to keep inflation in check over the next two years.

External Sector: Exports are expected to strengthen with better economic performance in the European Union and the US, Sri Lanka’s main export destinations. After declining in 2013, imports will pick up in 2014 as domestic demand materializes.

Workers’ remittances expanded in 2013 as a result of an increased labor migration under the professional and skilled category, the expansion of formal channels for remitting money, and the introduction of a swift web-based money transfer system. Continued strong performance in remittances will help contain the current account deficit at 2.6% and 3.5% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Fiscal Sector: The fiscal deficit steadily shrank to 5.8% of GDP in 2013, from a peak of 9.9% in 2009. However, while the government has reduced expenditures and attempted to improve revenues to narrow the deficit, the revenue ratio did not pick up as expected. Better economic performance and more imports are expected to catalyze higher revenue collection in 2014 and 2015. Continued policy action is also needed, together with improved revenue administration, to achieve a higher revenue ratio.

The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC

The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.

economic capsule - march 2014

Economy & Finance