economic bloggers survey q1 2010v12

8/14/2019 Economic Bloggers Survey Q1 2010v12

1/20

Kauffman Economic OutlookA QuArterly Survey o leAding economicS BloggerS

i r S t Q u A r t e r 2010

www.kaa.


2/20

Kauffman Economic Outlook

A QuArterly Survey o leAding economicS BloggerS

in partnership with Palgraves Econolog.net

s Qa, 2010

T i m K a n eSenior Fellow

ew ma Kaa a

ba 2010

www.kaa.


3/20

introduction

Aas p s bs ps a s p ws wh w-a

a a pa aa ps h s pa sss h a

h . As p hks wh a s ss hh h a

b, hs s ws ha a q a psp, a pa

p . th Kaa a s app h shs a w ss

ss a Kaa e ok: A Qa S tp es Bs.

ths aa s was -Jaa 2010 b s p a h p

200 s bs ak b Paas e.. t qss a s pa

qss w s a wh a ssh ba ass, whh s:

rb X. c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I, Cringely

Ba dl. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Grasping Reality

la Ha. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Palgrave Econolog

S Jaw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marketplace Scratch Pad

Pa Ksk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Infectious Greed

l Ks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Knowledge Problem

d a m a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DMarron.com

mak P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Carpe Diem

Wa rsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Xconomy.com

As Sha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FreeExchange

nk Shz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Enterprise Blog

ys Sh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Naked Capitalism

Ax tabak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Marginal Revolution

mak tha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Economists View

Kaa e ok A S tp es Bs [2010 Q1]

-1-


4/20

hs s, da ma (a.) hp s qss ab h u.S. b

f, s sks, a p s. d. ma has h pss as h h s

a b h c e Ass, a h cssa B

of, a x h J e c h u.S. css. Bas

sas h b as ha a b a, hs s sh b w

as js wa saz h shs h s bs.

Key indingSThe economy

es bs ha a bak k h u.S. , wh 48 p sp

ha s a ws ha fa sass a, a 6 p sa s b.

S p sps sa h s s, wh 33 p sa s wak, wh

h a sa s x.

Wh ask h wh psps k ass a h x

h as, h as ass a xp b s as, a, a h b

f. u.S. p a jbs a xp as, b wh ab ha h s wh ba p. th sps sa h psps h pa

h u Sas a as w. th pa asssss s as ba ba

sa bsss (52 p) a bak bsss (51 p) a as (50

p). th k ps s a a bh sp, wh ps x bw

ba s (36 p) a (26 p).

Policy Recomm endaTions

dsp b a baa pa s pa a (16 p rpba, 19 p

da, 47 p p, a h 18 p baa/h), h s a s

sss a a p as. S- p s bs

hk h u.S. s h , wh 17 p a

a . Wh ask wha h sh b , h ps wh

ha 50 p spp a: 1) as hh-sk a (63 p), a 2)

as a a a a sk s (57 p). tw ps s shap wh a-

as pps: as bsss a (9 p) a as as (4 p).


-2-


5/20

o axa, h pa was w a w axs pas (74 p) a

, bh pa (64 p) a a (62 p). lkws, h was s

spp hh axs as/ab (68 p a 57 p, sp), a

sp (54 p). A ba ax p s pss, b 47

p bs a a a axs pa 26 p a as

pss (.., hh ax as hh s a w s).

A s bs, h p h aabs ha paks sh phasz

a wh a ha apa, a, a .i a a qs, bs w ask a h bfa pa s

k pas h u.S. . o h p h pa a ps as

pa pa, a a as ha as spp. o sh

ss pa a a a a, wh a a sps a h as

pa pa. i as, 30 p s bs hk

ab s a pa, a a 70 p a h as pa (bs

a a 100 -spss a ). op s x

aa, wh h s spp h pa b bsss.

BloggeRs veRsus The BudgeT deficiT

th pa was ask a ss qs hs qa ab h u.S. b f, s

wh p cssa B d, da ma (w b a

a.). Wh a b xpa aaa 2009, a aj bs hk

h u.S. b gdP a has b a apab sk h hah h a

. th b gdP a s 70 p a 90 p h as a

a. th s shws ha h b bs wh hk h sk s apab

has b wh h w b . th pa ss s as ps b hh a

s fs, wh h bs b w s, w b a, a

wak h a.

op s sp whh css sh sa p h f. th-h

p s bs a a a s h b f.

Ah 26 p a ss. th a 36 p bh:

sa h sh- wh sas - s.


-3-


6/20

Wh a wh a ps h b f, h sp s a s

p ab a h ps: sp ma a ma (60 p sa

hs s a p p), sp Sa S (37 p), a sp

ds (38 p). App a css a a-- s as (7

p) s s a ba a b a aj h pa. th ws as a as pa axs

(82 p s hs a ba a), as axs (63 p), a ak a ax

ax a h cs (61 p). op s sp a 50-50 w h as: a

sp ap a a aw h 2001/3 ax s xp.

BloggeRs RePoRT caRd

tp s bs w ask a h pa s azas a

ss. tw ps hhs aks: wahs h cssa B

of (cBo) a ga Aab of (gAo), a h u.S. bsss .

ca baks sh as h a rs a epa ca Bak pass as b

s, wh w As a a s. Sa, h W Bak has x aks. th ws aks

Wa S fs (31 p s) a h u.S. css (51 p s).

suPeRPoweRs in 2030?

i w as, whh as a s w b sppws? A p

s bs, h s a s h u Sas (90 p) a cha (88 p),

wh ss spp ia (57 p) a h epa u (55 p). th b spss a

h ak spp a-20h sppws, Japa (16 p), a rssa (5 p).

A bs h m eas w b a sppw 2030, as wh

spp as sppws la Aa (13 p), Shas Asa (18 p), a

Ka (12 p).

suRvey ResulTsth Kaa e ok s qss ha w ah qa a

-- pa qss. c qss s w aas, a a ps

h has a abs bw: h pa h u.S. a p asssss

a as. th h s spas qss h p s hs qa,

whh s th u.S. B df. a, h a pa qss p b s

bs hss, whh a az.


-4-


7/20

h t r t t u.s. rt ?

i t u.s. bttr r r t rt ttt ?

S aw

Wak ass

a ssmxS wha wh

WsSaB

u.S. economic Per ormAnce


-5-

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2%

6%

45%

48%

5%

59%

23%

10%


8/20

wt r t prpt r t t r r t xt tr r?

Scale: 1.0 = increasing strongly, -1.0 = decreasing strongly

u . S . e c o n o m i c P e r o r m A n c e


-6-

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

dr s ir

wt r t t tt xt r t :

A apa epsv apa Sabssss

Bak bssss

Bak as

v g

g

a

Ba

v Ba

B f

is as (a)

ia

gba p

P

ep

gdP p apa

i qa

Sk ak

cpss

maa

ta f

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%


9/20

i t u.s. r rt t t u.s. ?

nmx / ab hys

u.S. economic Po licy


-7-

h r t prr t rzt ttt? (a = bt, f = )

cBo, gAo, ah wahs

(gPA 2.3)

u.S. ars(gPA 1.7)

epaca Bak

(gPA 2.0)

u.S. bsss

(gPA 2.2)

Wa Sfs

(gPA 1.2)

u.S. css(gPA 0.7)

W Bak /im

(gPA 1.6)

A

B

c

d

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

71%

12%

17%


10/20

T u.s. r rt ... (t r r)

u . S . e c o n o m i c P o l i c y


-8-

ias hh sk a

ias a a (a sk s)

P w f a

ias faa a

ias a sp

ias sb

ias bsss a

ras bas aa a

gas

cab

csp

ia

cpa

ps

Pas

h t u.s. r rt tx t : r, t , r ?

m

Sa

lss

25%

25%

0%

0%

50%

50%

75%

75% 100%

63%

57%

48%

41%

33%

20%

9%

4%


11/20

i r t trt p rt tt b pkr rt,

t r t tr k rb t ?



-9-

Ha apa

ia

e

epshp

is (phsa apa)

Pp hs

r aw

oh (pas sp)

Sa

25%0% 50% 75%

s t trtr r tx rt b ttr, bt t , r r prr?

ederAl tAX rAte

Structure

47%

a

27%

Ab h sa

26%

m pss

58%

54%

51%

43%

42%

38%

34%

9%

6%


12/20

h iprtt t r t t t u.s. ?



-10-

eps

ia

a

ea

B bsss

maa

lab s

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%0%

v pa (bfa)

Swha pa

upa


13/20

at t bt-t-gdP rt t k rb. ar t t omB, r bt 33 prt gdP 1980, 58 prt 2000, 70 prt 2008, tt t b r 90 prt 2009.

at t tk t dbt/gdP rt b ptb rk t t u.s. ?


-11-

Rt rprt t tt u.s. pkr bt t t bt t tt gdP jb rt. w cr t Prt pz r 2010?

36%

d bh

26%

Sa gdPa jb wh

38%

r hb f

Sa fsa 2010wh - s

congreSS And PreSident emPHASiS2010

toPic in ocuS: tHe u.S. Budget de ic it

25-50% Pssb Ab 125%75-100% 100-125%50-75%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

13%

18%

28%

17%

10%

15%

25-50%50-75%

75-100%

100-125%

Ab 125%

Pssb


14/20

t o P i c i n o c u S : t H e u . S . B u d g e t d e i c i t


-12-

wt r t prr rk r t?

Pa rsk

rsk

n a rsk

25%0% 50% 75% 100%

cw- is

ia

Waks h u.S. da

Waks c s g

Waks u.S. Pwiaa

Prrtz t p r t b t bt t, b t r tt t pt b.

25%0% 50% 75% 100%

tp P

S

P

th P

Ba ia

ras Pa taxs

App a css aa-- s as

ras i taxs

max tax A h cs

Ap a va-A tax

Sp cap A h cs

Baa B A h cs

r Sp ds

r Sp

Sa Sr Sp

ma a ma

Aw 2001/3 tax cs exp 2010


15/20

w t r/tr b prpr 2030? (t r r)

otHer toPicAl QueStionS rom PArtic iPAting BloggerS


-13-

u Sas

cha

ia

ep (eu)

Shas Asa

Japa

la Aa

Ka

rssa

m eas

wt r t t r b t t t t? (k tt pp)

25%0% 50% 75% 100%

25%0% 50% 75% 100%

90%

78%

48%

25%

19%

17%

16%

7%

88%

57%

55%

18%

16%

13%

12%

5%

1%

e aa(jbs, gdP, a)

g ps

th sk ak/Wa S

th

epshp/sa bsss

cpa ws

bsss


16/20

metHodology & PAnel Selection

ias w s 200 p s bs, s wh w h Paas

. db 2009 aks (s h s sb a www../sas.php).

S bs wh p ahs ha ha sp h pa. xap, bh

Jas Ha a mz ch, -bs a eBws., papa, as t

cw a Ax tabak, -bs a maa.. th pa s a a

h-f sps.

th p h Kaa e ok s ha s pass a/ h b as

w b as (w p hss), b a a spss a

s w a as. A s papas s h Appx.

Pass w ask sb h pa afa, wh h b shw

whh h pa has a a bas. W f ha a h sx-h wh asw

hs qs, a ha s hss ip, wh 19 p da

a 16 p rpba.

th as qs ask s bs sb h pas a baks.

ths spss w xs (a sps s ). o ha

wh p a (h-) a s psss, f a

ps, a pssa jass, a w-h ha a Phd s.


-14-

wt r pt t?

19%

da

47%

ip

16%

rpba18%

oh/nA

Polit icAl Ail iAt ion


17/20

APPendiX

lisT of ResPondenTs

ia spss w b as, b as a/ bs h papas h

Kaa e ok :

Aa e, Economists Voice

Aja Shah, ajayshahblog.blogspot.com

Ax tabak, Marginal Revolution

As Sha, Free Exchange

A Aawa, Mostly Economics

Aw lh, andrewleigh.com & economics.com.au

Aw rh, Club for Growth

Antitrust and Competition Policy Blog

A K, Econlog

Ah da, artdiamondblog.com

B c, Businomics.Typepad.com

Bookish Posts

Ba capa, EconLog

cas ma, Supply & Demand (in that order)

chs mass, Midas Oraclecas vss, Alpha.Sources

ca ea, Political Calculations

ca nwak, Newmarks Door

da aks, QandO

da gss, Slates Moneybox

da W. dz

da Bkwh, Macro and other Market Musings

da Za, aguanomics

da Bak, Beat the Press

da ma, dmarron.com

da Kk, Business Pundit

e ak, Falkenblog

EconomicDisconnect, economicdisconnect.blogspot.com

Entrepreneurial Mind

x Sa

Sa, Coordination Problems


-15-


18/20

APPendiX

lisT of ResPondenTs (t)

g ma, Truth on the Market

Globalisation and the Environment

g Sh, The Conglomerate

g ras, Taking Hayek Seriously

g g, SSRNblog

Jas Ha, Econbrowser

Jas Sha, Healthcare EconomistJ m,A Dash of Insigh

J g, European Tribune

Jh B. ch, Emirates Economist

Jsha Wh, Truth on the Market

Js Wh, Wehr in the World

K Hh,Angry Bear

K Baaa, SCSU Scholars

la Ba,A Taxing Matter (and Angry Bear)

l Ks, Knowledge Problem

m. t Hs, Truth on the Market

mak P, Carpe Diem

mak tha, Economists View

ma na, TVHE

ma Ss, Futronomics

mahw e. Kah,greeneconomics.blogspot.com

ma mA,Asymmetrical Information

mz ch, Econbrowser

mha ma, Mandel on Innovation and Growth

mha m, Kids Prefer Cheesemha Paz, Financial Armageddon

mha Ps, China Financial Markets

msh,globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

naha A. ma, Economic Edge

nk Shz, Enterprise Blog (blog.american.com)

Pa ca, TaxProf Blog


-16-


19/20

APPendiX

lisT of ResPondenTs (t)

Pa Ksk, Infectious Greed

P Bk, Coordination Problem

P g. K, Organizations and Markets

ra,Angry Bear

rha las, Organizations & Markets

rb la, Growthology.org

rb Waa, angrybear.blogspot.comrb X. c, I, Cringely

ra A, Free Exchange

S Jaw, Marketplace Scratch Pad

S maaa, Realclearmarkets

S Hwz, Coordination Problem

th rh, e360 blog at Entrepreneurship.org

t ia, The Mess That Greenspan Made

t Ka, Growthology.org

t cw, MarginalRevolution

va Ps, Dynamist

Wa rsh, Xconomy

W ak, WILLisms.com

ys Sh, Naked Capitalism


-17-


20/20

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economic bloggers survey q1 2010v12

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