economic assessment for the central namib uranium rush sea ...€¦ · economic assessment for the...

Strategic Environmental, Social and Economic Assessment

for the Central Namib Uranium Rush

SEA “Uranium Rush”Dr Rainer Ellmies (BGR-GSN-Project)

1. Uranium exploration and mining in Namibia2. Uranium commodity market3. SEA background4. Methodology and set-up for SEA “Uranium rush”5. Practical issues: Water, electricity, health…6. Way forward

Geological Survey of Namibia (GSN) Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR)

German-Namibian Technical Cooperation

1. Uranium mining and exploration in 1. Uranium mining and exploration in ErongoErongo RegionRegionTwo types of uranium deposits: primary Two types of uranium deposits: primary ““leucograniteleucogranite--hostedhosted”” and secondary and secondary ““calcretecalcrete--hostedhosted””

“leucogranite-hosted” ore

Langer Heinrich Mine (October 2008) “calcrete-hosted” carnotite ore

Trekkopie Heap Leach Facility March 2009

Valencia Uranium Mining License March 2009

Direct footprint of Direct footprint of RRöössingssing Uranium LtdUranium LtdOpen Pit = 431 haRock dumps = 584 haTailings dam = 730 haOre stockpiles = 107 haTotal direct footprint = 2441 haRössing licence +accessory works area = 18410 ha

Uranium mines1. Rössing (1976)2. Langer Heinrich (2007)3. Trekkopje (2009)4. Valencia (2011)5. Etango (2012)6. Rössing South (2013)7. Inca/Reptile (2014)8. Namura9. Marenica10. Erongo11. …

Will the “URANIUM RUSH” continue?� Nov’08-Aug’09: Uranium spot price trades between 40 – 55 US$/lb� Current long term contract prices 60 – 70 US$/lb� Boom and bust?

Nami bi an deposi ts

SEA ‘uranium rush’ scenariosScenario 1: Below expectationScenario 1: Below expectation

<5 mines will be operational by 2020<5 mines will be operational by 2020

Scenario 2: As expectedScenario 2: As expected5 5 –– 7 mines will be operational by 20207 mines will be operational by 2020

Scenario 3: Above expectationScenario 3: Above expectation>7 mines will be operational by 2020>7 mines will be operational by 2020

Scenario 4: Boom Scenario 4: Boom -- bustbust5 5 –– 10 mines become operational, and various factors lead to 10 mines become operational, and various factors lead to

their hurried closure before 2020their hurried closure before 2020

SEA Central Namib Uranium Rush

Langer Heinrich Mine March 2009

UNDP (2002): UNDP (2002): ““Strategic Strategic Environmental Environmental Assessment is aAssessment is aprocess of systematic process of systematic analysis of analysis of environmental environmental impacts which impacts which extends the aims and extends the aims and principles of EIA principles of EIA upstream in the upstream in the decision making decision making process, beyond the process, beyond the project level and when project level and when major alternatives are major alternatives are still openstill open””


What is a SEA?What is a SEA?

Inter-national

conventions,agreements,programs etc.

National Development Plans, sector policies, plans

& programmes

Regional, provincial and localauthority (and community) land use plans

Individual projects

SEA

EIA

Poten

tial to

influe

nce s u

s taina

ble de

v elo pm

ent

Low

HighLevels of Environmental Assessments

SEA “Central Namib Uranium Rush”

Key objectives of the SEA “Uranium Rush”SEA Central Namib Uranium Rush

1. Analyse environmental, economic and social impacts of uranium exploration and mining and assess cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic aspects

2. Formulate development options to avoid or minimize negative impacts and to enhance positive impacts

3. Provide recommendations in the form of Strategic Management Plans (which indicate actions, responsible actors and timeframes) for sustainable development and trigger their implementation.

• Initiative of Chamber of Mines Namibia• Independently conducted by Ministry of Mines and Energy, Directorate Geological Survey and its German Cooperation partner BGR

• First ever SEA & SMP for a mineral province• Voluntary SEA: No existing plan on which SEA may focus

• Integrated SEA: Planners, industry and governmental authorities strongly involved in the process

• Direct costs: US$ 1,000,000 • Time frame: 1.5 years

Facts & Figures


Institutional set-up

Biophysical and HeritageBiophysical and Heritage

SAIEA• P. Tarr

• B. Walmsley• M. Hauptfleisch

• J. Pallett

SAIEA• P. Tarr

• B. Walmsley• M. Hauptfleisch

• J. Pallett

GSN/BGR Internal Reviewer• A. Weaver

Socio-economy and

services

Socio-economy and

servicesPolicy, legal

and institutions

Policy, legal and

institutionsMining and

InfrastructureMining and

Infrastructure

Water • P. Heyns• O.v. Vuuren

Biodiversity and visual impact

• M. Seely• J. Pallett• S. Stead

Public participation

Radiation & Health

• H. Krugmann• Health expert

• Air Quality expertEconomic impact

NEPRUP. Tarr

Policy & legal• W. Odendal• H. Krugmann

Institutional assessment• P. Tarr• H.

Krugmann

Mining, tailings, decommissioning, rehabilitation, etc. • B. Walmsley• M. Hauptfleisch

• J. Pallett

Roads, power, rail, harbor,

transport, etc. • C. Loftie-Eaton

Social infrastructure

• M. Hauptfleisch• P. Tarr

Skills, employment, social security, social investment: L. Le Roux

Heritage • J. Kinahan

Core

Team

Spec

ialist

Supp

ort Te

am

External Reviewers• B. Dalal-Clayton• Health Expert

1. Water 2. Power 3. Infrastructure4. Land use and regional economy

5. Health, radiation and safety6. Environment, heritage7. Mine closure, rehabilitation and post-mining land uses

Key issues

SEA Uranium Mining in Erongo Region

Pipeline construction Wlotzkasbaken desalinisation plant - Trekkopje

1. WATER• supply (desalination)• distribution• consumption/recycling• groundwater protection• waste water management

4 Mm3/a

15 Mm3/a 3 Mm3/a4 Mm3/a

5 Mm3/a

4 Mm3/a3 Mm3/a

5 Mm3/a

5 Mm3/a

Water required by Water required by uranium mines uranium mines

YearYear MmMm33/a/a20082008 7 7 20112011 252520152015 48 (64)48 (64)

Current water supply Current water supply of of NamWaterNamWater nationnation--wide wide = 67 Mm= 67 Mm33/a/a

Households

Households

Ì

Ì

Ì

Ì

EtangoRossing S

Erongo

Kunene

Khomas

Otjozondjupa

Hardap Hardap

K ha n

U g ab

S wa k o

p

O ma r ur u

Ku i seb

H uab

Kui seb

RössingValencia

Trekkopje

Langer Heinrich

-23.6

7236

0-22.8

5597

8-22.0

3959

6-21.2

2321

4

µ

0 20 40 60 8010Kilometers

LegendÌ U_mines

ERONGO REGION CL-CL- (mg/l)

0 - 250251 - 600601 - 12001201 - 25002501 - 10000

Prefeasibility prospects

1. WATER• Groundwater quality baseline study• Fingerprinting of mine effluents• Water balance model• Disaster management plan

Groundwater protection

Drainage for tailings dump at Langer Heinrich, October 2008

GROUNDWATER MODEL and WATER BALANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE SWAKOP- KHAN - SYSTEM

1.BGR Hannover: Thomas Himmelsbach (overall scientific coordination, contribution to final report, subcontracting for uranium isotope studies of up to 10 samples), Frank Wagner and Robert Kringel (sampling and analysis for major, minor, trace elements including uranium)2.DWA: Technical support, provision for 3 licenses of ModflowSurfact for the time of the study3.UFZ Leipzig: Michael Schubert (sampling and analysis for stable isotopes and radionuclides; radon in groundwater and sediment, radionuclides in sediments) 4.University Freiburg: Vera Marx and Christoph Kuells (sampling and analysis for CFC; integration of CFC data into model) 5.Geological Survey of Namibia (BGR-GSN-Project): Rainer Ellmies(overall coordination), Israel Hasheela (compilation of existing data)6.BIWAC

SEA “URANIUM RUSH” WATER TEAM Groundwater protectionfor GROUNDWATER MODEL and WATER BALANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE SWAKOP- KHAN - SYSTEM

Inception and field planning meeting 10th June 2009Sampling campaign: 11th June – 6th July 2010Draft Report: 20th November 2009Final Report: 15th January 2010

2. Power• Consumption,• generation, • distribution

35 MW

50 MW 20 MW

10 MW

15 MW

20 MW15 MW

15 MW

15 MW

YearYearPower required Power required

MWMW20072007 454520082008 505020112011 90 (170)90 (170)20152015 195 (240)195 (240)

Current Current generation generation capacity of capacity of NamPowerNamPower393 MW393 MWAdd: 150Add: 150--300 MW300 MW

Households

Households

Desal III

Desal I+II

Source: Chamber of Mines (2008)

YearYear No. EmployeesNo. Employees20072007 2,200 2,200 20082008 2,9002,90020112011 4,5004,50020152015 7,000 (12,000)7,000 (12,000)

YearYear No. DependentsNo. Dependents20072007 8,0008,00020082008 10,00010,00020112011 18,00018,00020152015 28,000 (48,000)28,000 (48,000)

Populationafter NPC 2001

71567156

2631026310 1206412064

1629316293

2794127941

1028910289 71567156

Status of various infrastructureStatus of various infrastructure

Roads, rail, power, waterRoads, rail, power, water3. Infrastructure• transport (roads, railways, pipelines), housing (regional and local town planning)• social infrastructure (health facilities, schools, recreation facilities)

SEA Uranium Mining in Erongo Region

N

Walvis Bay�6 x Primary schools (state)�3 x Primary schools (private)�4 x Secondary schools (state)Arandis�NIMT�Kolin Secondary School (state)�2 x Primary schools (state)

Henties Bay�1 x Primary school (pivate)

Usakos�3 x Primary schools (state)l

Swakopmund�7 x Primary schools (state)�3 x Primary schools (private)�5 x Secondary schools (state)�1 x Secondary school (private)

FACILITIES IMMEDIATELY IMPACTED BY URANIUM RUSHFACILITIES IMMEDIATELY IMPACTED BY URANIUM RUSH

449

271225

1985 1990 2000 2006

+7%

1992

Maternal Mortality per 100,000 live births

No data

No data

MDG

56

HIV prevalence rate 16.4% (women Erongo)ARV receiving rate 63%

4. Current land use and economy

Economics Monthly, March 2008

Benefits for national economy• Export value of 18,000 tU: N$ bn16• Contribution to fiscus: N$ bn1.5• N$1.4 bn will annually be paid to employees of the mines

Benefits and threats to local businesses: • Building and construction, • Tourism industry, • Farming…


5. Health and safety• Air quality (dust natural vs mining induced): Air dispersion model• Radiation (natural background, mining induced, cumulative dose): Radiation model• Medical baseline study and projections (HIV, TB…): Health Baseline Study • Central medical lab for dose and uranium testing• Mine safety, road safety


6. Environment• Ecological sensitivities of Namib environment: Endemic species etc. • Landscape integrity of Namib Naukluft National Park and Erongo Region

VISUAL IMPACT Scenario 1VISUAL IMPACT Scenario 1

7. Mine closure, rehabilitation and post7. Mine closure, rehabilitation and post--mining land usesmining land uses

ContentClosure strategy � key objectives (e.g. housing, community integration, future

use of disturbed areas) � main closure aspects and associated components � closure risks analysis� stakeholder expectations� evaluation of alternatives � identification of preferred alternatives

ContentClosure plan � social plan (employees and communities)

� decommissioning plan � Rehabilitation plan� monitoring plan � detailed closure costing

Chamber of Mines: Rehabilitation and Closure Committee (RCC)Chamber of Mines: Rehabilitation and Closure Committee (RCC)

SEA team workshopSEA team workshop

Assessment of positive and negative impacts according to 38 criteria for 57 activities in the prospecting, construction, mining, planned closure and unscheduled abandonment for all scenarios

Assessment of cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic aspects

� Qualitative and quantitative assessment of threads and opportunities� Tool to minimize or avoid negative and enhance positive effects

The Southern African Institute for Environmental Assessment

SEA Flow Chart

SEMP Implementation: Planning framework for uranium rush in Erongo Region

SEA Report +SEMP

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION•• Complexity of issues, limited time, pioneer character, pilot chaComplexity of issues, limited time, pioneer character, pilot character for racter for

other mining provincesother mining provinces•• ……to design sustainable development based on a comprehensive, to design sustainable development based on a comprehensive,

assessment, integration of results into planning processes and assessment, integration of results into planning processes and subsequent implementationsubsequent implementation

•• Avoid or minimize negative impacts & enhance positive effectAvoid or minimize negative impacts & enhance positive effect

SEA “Central Namib Uranium Rush”

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