https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx

Monetary Policy Group March 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions February 2020

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

Content 1 Executive Summary 1 2 The Thai Economy 3 2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector

2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position

2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates

2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market Stability and financial condition of corporate sector External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 13

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

1

1. Executive Summary

In February 2020, the Thai economy contracted from the same period last year. The COVID-19 outbreak affected economic activities more pronounced, particularly the tourism sector which highly contracted. The outbreak also had an additional impact on merchandise exports and imports as a result of China’s lockdown. Public spending continued to contract. Only private consumption continued to expand from accelerating purchases on necessary consumer goods. As a consequence of the decline in economic activities, manufacturing production and private investment contracted.

On the stability front, headline inflation decreased on the back of a decline in energy prices following global crude oil prices whereas core inflation edged up. The current account registered a further surplus from a significant drop in merchandise imports value even though travel receipts declined. The capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows: The number of foreign tourist arrivals highly contracted at 42.8 percent compared to the same

period last year in almost all nationalities. In particular, the number of Chinese tourists severely contracted due to the announcement of Chinese government to shut down many areas and ban on outbound group tour traveling abroad in order to contain the spreading of the COVID-19. However, the number of Russian tourists continued to expand because the situation in Russia was not severe in February. Therefore, the tourists remained their travel as planned. Overall, the deterioration of the number of foreign tourists have a negative impact on tourism-related businesses such as hotel and restaurant as well as transportation.

The value of merchandise exports expanded by 3.6 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value growth also remained negative at 1.3 percent due to the slowdown in external demand. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak and China’s lockdown measures resulted in the significant drop in economic activities in China, particularly private consumption, manufacturing production and merchandise transportation. Consequently, Thai exports to China considerably contracted especially agricultural products, particularly fruits, as well as petrochemical and chemical products. Furthermore, exports of gems and jewelry to Hong Kong contracted due to a decline in export orders. However, exports of electrical appliances and hard disk drive continued to expand thanks to the relocation of production base to Thailand in the previous periods.

Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to contract from both current and capital expenditures of the central government as a result of the delayed enactment of the FY2020 budget. Meanwhile, state enterprise’s capital expenditures contracted from disbursement of energy-related agencies.

Private consumption indicators expanded from the same period last year on the back of spending on non-durable goods, attributed to the acceleration in purchases on necessary consumer goods as a result of concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak. Nevertheless, spending on other categories contracted, especially services expenditure on hotel and restaurant as well as transportation, partly because people avoided going outside. Additionally, spending on durable goods further contracted from vehicle sales in all types. This was consistent with weakening supporting factors, including household income, employment and consumer confidence, while debt burden remained high.

Private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate from the same period last year mainly due to imports of capital goods from China. At the same time, other indicators reflecting investment in

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

2

machinery and equipment and investment in construction contracted in line with softening domestic and external demand as well as deteriorated business sentiment from the COVID-19 outbreak.

The value of merchandise imports contracted by 7.8 percent from the same period last year in almost all categories including raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods, particularly imports from China as a result of their lockdown measures. Manufacturing production contracted in line with softer demand. Nonetheless, the impact of China-linked supply chain disruptions on the Thai manufacturing production in February was not apparent because firms had sufficient inventory of raw materials and parts for production.

On the stability front, headline inflation stood at 0.74 percent, decelerating from the previous month on the back of a decrease in energy prices following global crude oil prices. Meanwhile, core inflation edged up. The current account registered a higher surplus as a result of a significant drop in merchandise imports value despite a decline in travel receipts. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions. The former was mainly from portfolio investment abroad by Foreign Investment Funds (FIF) and other depository corporations (ODCs). The latter was mainly from the short-term loan repayment by ODCs to adjust their foreign currency position and the net sell in debt securities by foreign investors, consistent with portfolio investment trend in regional countries.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

3

2.1 Supply

Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mmaFarm Income(%YoY)

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb

Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 5.0 3.7

Agricultural productionP -0.7

Agricultural price

1.9

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Farm income expanded at a slower pace from the same period last year, mainly owning to agricultural products affected by drought. Manufacturing production also contracted continuously, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. Moreover, services sector contracted significantly because of the COVID-19 outbreak which highly affected tourism-related services.

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)MPI Classified by Export Share

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

1.2 %

-5.6 %-2.6 %

%MoM saManufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 1 . -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 1.2 -2.9 -5.6 -8.1 1.0Automotives 1 . -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -5.6 -20.0 -13.1 -18.8 -8.1- Passenger Cars . -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -6.8 -20.3 -20.1 -18.0 -0.3- Commercial Vehicles .2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -4.7 -21.6 -8.0 -20.6 -9.8- Engine 1. -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -5.8 -14.7 -8.7 -12.5 -4.7Petroleum . -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -7.4 -15.2 -3.5 -0.1 3.7Chemicals .2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 1.6 0.6 -2.4 1.4 -0.4Rubbers & Plastics . -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -9.7 -7.9 -6.1 -6.4 -4.4Cement & Construction . -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -3.8 -1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.3IC & Semiconductors . -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -12.2 -4.1 -3.4 5.6 6.1Electrical Appliances . 5.0 5.0 4.9 1.9 8.0 10.6 1.0 -7.2Textiles & Apparels . -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -8.9 -10.0 -4.5 1.1 2.3Hard Disk Drive . -5.3 -14.3 3.8 0.5 7.3 12.4 -1.2 -4.5Others 1 . -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -6.2 -5.1 -0.8 -2.2 -2.0MPI 1 . -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -4.2 -6.8 -4.0 -5.2 -1.4MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

1 . - -2.7 -3.2 -1.9 -2.3 0.5 -1.4

Capacity Utilization (SA) 66.0 67.4 64.7 65.6 63.8 65.2 64.4

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

4

8090

100110120130140150160170

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Hotel & Restaurant (10%) Professional Services (4%)

Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

%MoM sa-1.3 %

-11.0 %-0.9 %

Capacity Utilization (sa)

(%) Weight 2016R

2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Febp

Food & Beverages 1 . 58.6 57.9 58.4 57.9 56.5 55.9

Automotives 1 . 86.8 85.7 78.9 71.2 77.3 70.3

Petroleum . 86.3 82.3 77.8 70.5 78.0 79.9

Chemicals .2 78.4 79.8 79.6 77.0 74.9 74.5

Rubbers & Plastics . 50.5 49.4 49.7 49.4 50.0 50.1

Cement & Construction . 64.5 64.6 65.3 65.5 65.1 66.4

IC & Semiconductors . 73.4 70.8 68.4 71.1 72.8 78.6

Electrical Appliances . 59.7 61.7 60.8 62.7 63.0 60.1

Textiles & Apparels . 55.8 54.7 53.9 52.7 54.3 56.1

Hard Disk Drive . 73.3 76.2 82.8 81.0 82.0 79.7

Others 1 . 57.8 57.3 56.4 57.1 58.0 56.8

CAPU sa 1 . 67.7 67.0 65.6 63.8 65.2 64.4

Source: Office of Industrial Economicsth

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

5

2.2 Domestic Demand

% YoY 2019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) 0.9

Construction Materials Index 4 -0.7

Real Imports of Capital Goods -6.6

Real Domestic Machinery Sales -2.0

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 0.2

Private Investment Index -3.4

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

6080100120140160180

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Source: Bank of Thailand

%YoY 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 3.0 3 0.9 0 2.4 -0.3Semi-durables index 2 7 9 -2.8 -6.0Durables index 3 8.7 -6.8Services index 3.0 1 0 2.4 -12.2 -10.7

less Net tourist spending 3.4 48.5 -36.5

PCI 4 5 3 1.8 2.5 3.4 -2.2

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Private consumption indicators expanded from the same period last year, primarily on the back of spending on necessary consumer goods as a result of concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak. Spending on other categories, however, contracted especially services. As a result of weak economic activities coupled with the sharp contraction in import of capital goods from China due to the lockdown measures, private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate. Meanwhie, public spending, excluding transfers, continued to contract from the same period last year due to the delayed enactment of the FY2020 budget.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

6

0

10

20

30

40

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Feb-6.8%

60

110

160

210

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Feb-13.4%

Feb-50.7%

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019

FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb

Revenue 2,513 2,538 615 551 777 595 649 217 199 167(%YoY) (6.8) (1.0) (12.8) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.3) (5.5) (4.6) (-4.0) (-1.7)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 924 719 654 679 796 252 216 186(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (-2.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (-6.3) (-26.4) (-6.9)Budgetary B/L -368 -437 -309 -168 124 -83 -147 -35 -17 -19Non-Budgetary B/L -28 127 -28 -21 123 53 -126 -7 10 -5Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -337 -190 247 -30 -273 -42 -8 -23Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -274 -178 313 -20 -207 18 -5 -23Net Financing 506 190 84 99 -38 45 76 18 29 28Treasury B/L 633 513 380 289 497 513 316 316 338 342

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

May 20 50.5

Feb 20

Business Sentiment Index

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100)

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Condition, February 2020

7

2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector

The current account registered a higher surplus from the trade balance although the net services, income and transfers declined due to the sharp contraction of the Chinese tourists. The higher trade balance surplus was a result of the disruptions in supply chain and merchandise transportation due to the China’s lockdown to contain the spreading of the COVID-19. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from both the asset and the liability positions.

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PHINDOMYTHTW

CNSGKR

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

US (Feb) Euro Area* (Jan) Japan (Jan)

G3 Retail Sales

Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Feb 20

Jan 2020 = 19.7 Bn USDEx. gold = 18.5 Bn USD

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebFeb

(%MoM)Agriculture . . -3.6 -13.4 -8.9 -17.8 -15.3 -10.1 -2.8Fishery . . -12.0 -1.2 -2.9 0.5 -12.5 2.0 9.6Manufacturing . . -3.5 -4.2 -4.9 -3.5 -0.5 -9.2 -0.6

Agro-manufacturing 2. . -2.3 2.2 -0.7 5.2 2.6 3.8 2.4Electronics .2 . -10.4 -2.7 -6.0 0.8 -1.5 5.0 0.1

Electrical Appliances . . -1.3 4.3 2.8 5.9 11.5 4.2 -5.3

Automotive . . -3.2 -3.3 -0.5 -6.3 1.7 1.2 -4.3Machinery & Equipment . . -4.8 -7.7 -7.2 -8.2 -3.2 -6.3 -2.5

Petroleum Related . . -10.5 -19.3 -17.9 -20.7 -7.3 -8.8 -1.1Total (BOP Basis) . .2 -4.0 -2.5 -0.0 -4.9 3.5 3.6 -1.5

Ex. Gold . -4.9 -4.7 -4.8 -4.7 -1.3 -1.3 -2.9Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . -4.1 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 -0.4 -0.3 -3.1

Export ValueFeb 2020 = 20.3 Bn USDEx. gold = 18.8 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebFeb

(%MoM)

Consumer . 2. 0.9 4.3 8.9 0.1 8.6 -9.0 -20.5Raw material & Intermediate . . -3.3 -10.3 -7.0 -13.6 -0.4 -6.8 -13.4

o/w Fuel . .2 -1.2 -20.0 -11.5 -28.2 18.3 -13.4 -26.5o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . -4.1 -6.1 -5.1 -7.2 -6.6 -4.0 -7.7

Capital 2 . 2. -7.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 6.6 -12.8 -32.7

Others . . 6.5 -15.8 -29.3 3.8 -56.9 36.8 17.5

Total (BOP Basis) . . -3.5 -7.2 -6.8 -7.6 -0.1 -7.8 -16.3Ex. Gold . -2.4 -5.5 -2.6 -8.3 1.4 -7.8 -16.8Ex.

Gold&Fuel 2. -2.6 -2.0 -0.5 -3.6 -1.8 -6.5 -14.6%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueJan 2020 = 19.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 19.0 Bn USD

Feb 2020 = 14.9 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 14.5 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary Condition, February 2020

8

%YoY (Share in 2019)

20192019 2020

%MoMsaH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebP

China (27.6%) . . . . . . . .

Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . .2 2 . . .

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)

. . . . . . . .

Russia (3.7%) . . . 2. . .2 . 2.

Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)

. . . 2. . . . .2

India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2. 2 . .

Others (9.6%) . . . . 2. . 2 . 22. Total(million persons)

.2 (39.8)

. (19.8)

. (20.0)

.2 .

. (10.3)

2. (3.8)

2. (2.1)

2.

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE YTD1. Assets 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Thai portfolio investment 2 22 2

- Equity security investment 2

- Debt security investment 2 2 Loans 2 2 2 22Other investments 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 22 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2

2. Liabilities 2 2 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2

Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 222 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2

Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE YTD

Trade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . . .

Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 22. . .2 . 2 . .

%YoY .2 . 2. . . . . .

Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . .2 . . .2

%YoY . . .2 . . . . .

Net Services, Income & Transfers . .2 . . . . - . .

Current Account . . 2 . . . . . .

Capital and Financial Account 2. . . . . 2. . 2.2

Overall Balance . . . . . . . .

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

9

2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 Feb 20 24 Mar 20

-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.37

1.46

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.46

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.50

8.54

1.4

1.

1.1

6.28

7.31

7.58

8.

8.54

1.33

1.51

1.11

6.08

7.31

7.59

8.

8.44

0.98

1.34

1.03

5.98

7.27

7.58

8.

8.54

0.83

1.28

0.93

5.93

7.24

7.58

6.66

8.26

8.54

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.

Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19Ap

r-19

Jul-1

9Oc

t-19

Jan-

20Ja

n-17

Apr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct-1

7Ja

n-18

Apr-1

8Ju

l-18

Oct-1

8Ja

n-19

Apr-1

9Ju

l-19

Oct-1

9Ja

n-20

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Changes in Total Corporate Financing

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

Feb 20P

Compared with the previous month, total corporate financing softened through all channels. New loans extended to private sector increased from household loans. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in February 2020 and the NEER depreciated from the previous month.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Apr-1

7

Jul-1

7

Oct-1

7

Jan-

18

Apr-1

8

Jul-1

8

Oct-1

8

Jan-

19

Apr-1

9

Jul-1

9

Oct-1

9

Jan-

20

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 24 Mar 20

0.751.15

0.89

1.50

0.81

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

10

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132

29-D

ec-1

7

16-F

eb-1

8

5-Ap

r-18

28-M

ay-1

8

13-Ju

l-18

3-Se

p-18

19-O

ct-1

8

7-De

c-18

28-Ja

n-19

15-M

ar-1

9

8-M

ay-1

9

26-Ju

n-19

14-A

ug-1

9

30-S

ep-1

9

18-N

ov-1

9

8-Ja

n-20

25-F

eb-2

0

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Note: Monthy average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

Mar USDTHB = 31.93NEER25 = 121.86

-2.8% -2.8% -2.4%-2.0% -1.7% -1.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3%

-0.3% 0.2%-1.5% -1.9% -1.8%

-2.9%

1.7%0.0%

-4.1%

2.9%

0.2%

-7.7%

-3.6%

-0.2% -0.6%

-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%

SGD THB KRW MYR EUR CNY GBP JPY TWD IDR INR VND PHP

Avg of Feb 20 compared to avg of Jan 20

Avg of Mar 20 compared to avg of Feb 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

29-D

ec-1

730

-Jan-

1827

-Feb

-18

28-M

ar-1

830

-Apr

-18

30-M

ay-1

827

-Jun-

1825

-Jul-1

827

-Aug

-18

24-S

ep-1

824

-Oct

-18

21-N

ov-1

821

-Dec

-18

22-Ja

n-19

20-F

eb-1

920

-Mar

-19

22-A

pr-1

923

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

19-Ju

l-19

20-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

16-O

ct-1

914

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

915

-Jan-

2013

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

0

HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD

As of 24 Mar 2020

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

11

2.5 Financial Stability

EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Thousand persons sa, 3mma

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2020 2018 2019

Unemployment Rate%

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing CensusSource: Labor Force Survey, NSO

Unemployment rate (Jan = 1.1 %; Feb = 1.1 %)Unemployment rate (sa) (Jan = 1.0 %; Feb = 1.1 %)

80859095

100105110115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%)Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%)

Employment Index

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census.( ) denotes share in total employment

Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014=100)

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Core inflation contribution%YoY

Feb0.58%

( ) Share in Core Inflation

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Headline inflation contribution%YoY

Feb0.74%( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Headline inflation decreased from the previous month on the back of a decline in energy prices whereas core inflation edged up. External stability remained strong, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 16% of total jobless claims

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Article 33 %, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Article ) account for % of total employment.

Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

12

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P

Change Feb20-Jan20

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE Total

1. General government -0.12. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit

5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)

Note: 50th percentile, *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical. Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

Interest Coverage Ratio and Debt to Equity Ratio by Sectors

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Utilities Overall

ICR P50 D/E P50 (RHS)Times Times

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Q1/5

9 Q

3/59

Q1/6

0 Q

3/60

Q1/6

1 Q

3/61

Q1/6

2 Q

3/62

Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Utilities Overall

OPM (sa) RoA (sa, RHS)Percentage Percentage

Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors

Note: ROA and OPM are calculated using sum by sum method with seasonal adjustment. *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical.

Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Jan FebE

Solvency Indicators

Current Account / GDP (%)

Debt / GDP (%) < /

Debt / XGS1/ (%) < / 9 53.0

Debt Service Ratio (%) 6.8 6.7 0 7.5

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time 3.9

Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times 10.1

ST Debt / Total Debt (%) 5.0 34.5

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

13

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

14

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, February 2020

15

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636