economic and market outlook - wordpress.com · 2015. 11. 19. · economic and market outlook...
TRANSCRIPT
Economic and Market Outlook
Presented By: Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
Presented To:
American Home Furnishings Alliance November 13, 2015
1 Steve Nivin can be reached at 210-517-3609 or [email protected].
Growth slowed to 1.5% in Q3 but growth expected to continue.
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
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2015
q3
Perc
ent C
hang
e (S
AA
R)
GDP Growth from Previous Quarter (Chained 2009 Dollars)
2 Source: U.S. BEA
Decline in inventory investment lead to slowing growth in Q3.
2.19
-0.97
-0.03
0.3
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Consumption Investment Net Exports Government Expenditures
Perc
ent
Contributions to U.S. GDP Growth in 2015q3
3 Source: U.S. BEA
Consumer spending continues to be a strength of the economy.
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2000
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01
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2001
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2002
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2013
-07-
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2014
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01
2014
-07-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-07-
01
Perc
ent C
hang
e (S
AA
R)
Real Consumer Expenditures Growth from Previous Quarter
4 Source: U.S. BEA
Employment growth was strong in October with a gain of 271,000 jobs.
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2000
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01
2000
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01
2001
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2001
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2002
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01
Tho
usan
ds o
f Per
sons
Change in U.S. Total Nonfarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
5 Source: U.S. BLS
Unemployment continues to fall reaching 5.0% in October.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000
-01-
01
2000
-07-
01
2001
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01
2001
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01
2002
-01-
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2002
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2005
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-07-
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2008
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01
2008
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01
2009
-01-
01
2009
-07-
01
2010
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2010
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01
2011
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01
2011
-07-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-07-
01
2013
-01-
01
2013
-07-
01
2014
-01-
01
2014
-07-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-07-
01
Perc
ent
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
6 Source: U.S. BLS
Home sales are strong across with U.S. with Northeast region lagging a bit.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 20
00-0
1-01
20
00-0
9-01
20
01-0
5-01
20
02-0
1-01
20
02-0
9-01
20
03-0
5-01
20
04-0
1-01
20
04-0
9-01
20
05-0
5-01
20
06-0
1-01
20
06-0
9-01
20
07-0
5-01
20
08-0
1-01
20
08-0
9-01
20
09-0
5-01
20
10-0
1-01
20
10-0
9-01
20
11-0
5-01
20
12-0
1-01
20
12-0
9-01
20
13-0
5-01
20
14-0
1-01
20
14-0
9-01
20
15-0
5-01
Exi
stin
g Si
ngle
-Fam
ily H
ome
Sale
s (SA
AR
) Ja
n. 2
000
= 10
0
US
South
Midwest
Northeast
West
7 Source: National Association of Realtors
Mean prices of single-family homes are increasing strongly, especially in the West.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2000
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01
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01
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01
2010
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01
2011
-04-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-10-
01
2013
-07-
01
2014
-04-
01
2015
-01-
01 M
ean
Sale
s Pri
ce o
f Exi
stin
g Si
ngle
-Fam
ily H
omes
(N
ot S
easo
nally
Adj
uste
d)
US
South
Midwet
Northeast
West
8 Source: National Association of Realtors
Housing inventories indicate a strong market.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0 20
00-0
1-01
20
00-0
7-01
20
01-0
1-01
20
01-0
7-01
20
02-0
1-01
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7-01
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1-01
20
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7-01
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1-01
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05-0
7-01
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1-01
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06-0
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07-0
1-01
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07-0
7-01
20
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1-01
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1-01
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1-01
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10-0
7-01
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11-0
1-01
20
11-0
7-01
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12-0
1-01
20
12-0
7-01
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13-0
1-01
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13-0
7-01
20
14-0
1-01
20
14-0
7-01
20
15-0
1-01
20
15-0
7-01
Sing
le-F
amily
Hom
es M
onth
s-in
-Inv
ento
ry in
U.S
.
9 Source: National Association of Realtors
U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen and likely to do so into near future.
0.0000
20.0000
40.0000
60.0000
80.0000
100.0000
120.0000
140.0000
2000
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01
2000
-07-
01
2001
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01
2001
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01
2002
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01
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01
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01
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2010
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01
2011
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01
2011
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01
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01
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01
2013
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01
2013
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01
2014
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01
2014
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01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-07-
01 U
.S. D
olla
r In
dex
(Not
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted)
Trade Weighted Broad U.S. Dollar Index (Jan. 1997=100)
10 Source: Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
Strength of dollar will likely slow spending by Mexican Nationals in U.S.
10.5000
11.0000
11.5000
12.0000
12.5000
13.0000
13.5000
14.0000
14.5000
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
Apr 2011
May 2011
Jun 2011
Jul 2011
Aug 2011
Sep 2011
Oct 2011
Nov 2011
Dec 2011
Jan 2012
Feb 2012
Mar 2012
Apr 2012
May 2012
Jun 2012
Jul 2012
Aug 2012
Sep 2012
Oct 2012
Nov 2012
Dec 2012
MX
Pes
os P
er U
.S. $
% C
hang
e in
Spe
ndin
g fr
om S
ame
Per
iod
Prev
ious
Yea
r
Change in Mexican National Spending Relative to Peso/$ Exchange Rate
Growth in Spending from Same Period Previous Year MX Pesos to One US$
Source for exchange rate data: Federal Reserve System; Spending data from Visa. 11
Oil prices likely to stay depressed through end of decade.
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
2000
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01
2000
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01
2001
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2001
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01
2002
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01
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01
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01
2005
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01
2005
-07-
01
2006
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01
2006
-07-
01
2007
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01
2007
-07-
01
2008
-01-
01
2008
-07-
01
2009
-01-
01
2009
-07-
01
2010
-01-
01
2010
-07-
01
2011
-01-
01
2011
-07-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-07-
01
2013
-01-
01
2013
-07-
01
2014
-01-
01
2014
-07-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-07-
01
Dol
lars
Per
Bar
rel
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Prices (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
12 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; International Energy Agency
Inflation has crept toward the 2.0% target by this measure.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2000
-01-
01
2000
-07-
01
2001
-01-
01
2001
-07-
01
2002
-01-
01
2002
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01
2006
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01
2006
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01
2007
-01-
01
2007
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01
2008
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01
2008
-07-
01
2009
-01-
01
2009
-07-
01
2010
-01-
01
2010
-07-
01
2011
-01-
01
2011
-07-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
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01
2013
-01-
01
2013
-07-
01
2014
-01-
01
2014
-07-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-07-
01
6-M
onth
Ann
ualiz
ed P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
13 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Economic growth expected to accelerate in emerging markets in the next few years.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980
19
81
1982
19
83
1984
19
85
1986
19
87
1988
19
89
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2020
Ann
ual P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Real GDP Growth
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies World 14
Source: International Monetary Fund
Term spread indicates continued economic expansion in U.S.
15
Decline in oil prices weighing on Texas economy but some areas seeing growth.
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2010
-01-
01
2010
-04-
01
2010
-07-
01
2010
-10-
01
2011
-01-
01
2011
-04-
01
2011
-07-
01
2011
-10-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-04-
01
2012
-07-
01
2012
-10-
01
2013
-01-
01
2013
-04-
01
2013
-07-
01
2013
-10-
01
2014
-01-
01
2014
-04-
01
2014
-07-
01
2014
-10-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-04-
01
2015
-07-
01
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Employment Growth (Y/Y)
Texas
Austin
Dallas
El Paso
Fort Worth
Houston
San Antonio
16 Source: U.S. BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.
Unemployment continues to hover at low levels.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2010
-01-
01
2010
-04-
01
2010
-07-
01
2010
-10-
01
2011
-01-
01
2011
-04-
01
2011
-07-
01
2011
-10-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-04-
01
2012
-07-
01
2012
-10-
01
2013
-01-
01
2013
-04-
01
2013
-07-
01
2013
-10-
01
2014
-01-
01
2014
-04-
01
2014
-07-
01
2014
-10-
01
2015
-01-
01
2015
-04-
01
2015
-07-
01
Perc
ent
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
Texas
Austin
Dallas
El Paso
Fort Worth
Houston
San Antonio
17 Source: U.S. BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Summary
• U.S. economy should continue to grow over the next year, but may be slower growth.
• Some factors to consider: – Increase in interest rates by Fed – Relatively slow growth in Europe and China – Strong dollar – Low oil prices – Tight labor markets – Uncertainty of new presidential administration
18