economic and market 2015 commentary quarter economic... · 2016-01-15 · dow jones industrial...
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I. 2015EquityMarketRecap:FinishingWhereWeStarted
U.S. large‐cap stocks finished the year slightly above where they began; the S&P 500 returned 1.37% in 2015, while the
Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a slight gain of 0.21%. Small‐ and mid‐cap stocks fared less well, posting negative
returns of ‐2.01% and ‐2.18%, respectively for the year. Despite minimal returns, equities path to finishing where they
started was all but uneventful.
Looming threats of a Greek exit from the Eurozone (Grexit) set the tone for a volatile equity market in 2015. The fear of a
Grexit was followed by a collapse in commodity prices, China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, and what seemed to
be a never ending guessing game of when the Federal Reserve would initiate a raise in the Fed funds target rate.
Equity volatility peaked in
late August, as
benchmark indices
succumbed to their worst
weekly selloff in four
years amid China’s
economic slowdown and
devaluation of the yuan.
As mentioned in our
August Equity Summary:
sharp daily moves in
today’s markets are
largely driven by Wall
Street traders, not long
term buy‐and‐hold
investors. Psychological and technical factors, as well as short‐term profit motivations on the part of traders, often lead
to spikes in market volatility with little regard to fundamentals.
Following a 12% correction in late August, the S&P 500 rallied through year end to post its seventh consecutive annual
gain. The fourth‐quarter rally was led largely by technology stocks such as Netflix and Amazon, which both more than
doubled in value in 2015. The rout in commodity prices was reflected in the S&P’s worst performers of the year, as nine
energy producers in the benchmark index posted price losses in excess of 50%.
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ECONOMICANDMARKETCOMMENTARY
Kolby Sneathern SSW Research Department
Office: (601) 605‐1776 Website: www.ssw1776.com
Contact: [email protected]
4th Quarter2015
OURMISSIONSmith Shellnut Wilson is a registered investment advisor* specializing in managing investment portfolios for banks, individuals, corporations, foundations and public entities. Smith Shellnut Wilson offers its clients skilled investment management and unremitting client service. Smith Shellnut Wilson is dedicated to the premise that client relationships and performance, not
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II. 2015BondMarketRecap:
Houston,WeHaveLiftoff!
Intermediate‐term bond yields were largely unchanged last
year. The 10‐year Treasury finished the year 10 basis points
higher than where it began, with the result that investors
realized minimal returns in both the equity and fixed‐income
markets.
Oftentimes, in years of extreme equity market volatility,
investors tend to panic, thus liquidating their equity positions
and flooding safer assets such as bonds. As market
participants increase their bond allocation, bond prices rise
while bond yields act inversely and descend. Aside from an
influx of cash from investors fleeing equity markets, bond
investors also had to play a guessing game with the Fed as to
when they would raise rates. Yields reacted sharply after
every FOMC meeting throughout the year.
Now that the Fed has begun to raise the target rate for the
first time since 2006, it is insightful to look at yields in an
historical context in rising‐rate environments. As shown on
the graph below, every time the Federal Reserve has raised
rates over the past four decades, we have seen the yield
curve flatten, with short‐term yields (2‐year Treasury) rising
more than longer term (10‐year Treasury) yields. This
phenomenon is known as a “bear flattening” in bond trader
parlance.
It is also important to note that the bond market is embarking
on this journey from a historically low starting point. We are
gradually, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen has repeated several
times, coming out of an unprecedented 7‐year period of rates
near zero percent. Many investors are suspect that Treasury
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yields in the current rate environment will react the same as
they have in the past, with a flattening curve, arguing that we
have never experienced a gradual rate rise while inflation and
other economic indicators remain tepid.
III. Yellen,BullMarketsandExtinctioninaSeven‐YearStockRallyByOliverRenick
Janet Yellen says economic expansions don’t die of old age.
Neither do bull markets. At almost 82 months, the advance in
the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that has lifted U.S. share
prices threefold is poised to become the second‐longest ever
in 2016, eclipsing a stretch in the 1950s in which prices
almost quadrupled. As the rally that has restored $15 trillion
to share prices sails past milestones, it’s natural for investors
to wonder if time itself becomes a barrier to progress.
Reaching that conclusion is a mistake, according to Jeff Rubin,
the director of research at Birinyi Associates Inc., who says
bailing out just because prices have been going up is a
standard error of market timing that will usually end up losing
money. Rubin sees no statistical basis for a belief that the bull
market’s age makes equities more likely to fall in 2016 than in
any other year.
“People said the bull market was old at five years, four years,
they said it at the beginning when it went without a
correction,” said Rubin of the Westport, Connecticut‐based
money management and research firm. “Just because the
market is some number of months old doesn’t mean it can’t
become twice as old,” he said. “It just doesn’t work like that.”
But wait, doesn’t the fact that there’s never been a bull
market longer than 10 years imply that the chance of
extinction rises over time? Sort of ‐‐ but not in a way that tells
you anything about 2016. The probabilities are similar to
those underlying coin flips, where 20 straight heads are very
unlikely, but odds on the next one are always 50‐50.
Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, addressed the length of the
economic recovery during a press conference after the Fed’s
announcement that it would raise interest rates. She said it’s
a myth that expansions die of old age and that the recovery’s
days are not necessarily numbered.
The issue comes up with respect to monetary policy because
the Fed is raising rates at an unusually late stage of the
business cycle ‐‐ six years in. The same is true in stocks, where
the S&P 500 just completed its longest stretch in its history
without an interest rate increase and a 20 percent decline
that would mark a bear market.
“Say a bull market or economic expansion period has lasted
for six or seven years ‐‐ is that in itself evidence that it’s likely
to turn down? No,” David Brown, a professor of finance at
the University of Wisconsin School of Business, said by phone.
“What investors do today is in some sense due to history.
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Investors are by nature trying to figure out what’s around the
corner.”
The idea that the past says nothing about the future is a
central tenet of the random walk theory on asset prices
championed by academics such as Eugene Fama and Burton
Malkiel. Since 1930, about 67 percent of years have been
positive for the S&P 500. After a year in which the index falls,
the odds it will rise in the next one are 63 percent, data
compiled by Bloomberg show. Odds that one up year will be
followed by another are 66 percent.
U.S. advances over the past 88 years have averaged 57
months in length and only two have gone on for longer than
the one happening now, according to S&P data going back to
the 1920s. At 22.2 times earnings calculated under generally
accepted accounting principles, the S&P 500’s valuation is 31
percent above its average since 1936, data compiled by
Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices show.
It’s the paucity of past examples that makes analysis difficult.
There have been two bull markets in the past 100 years that
have gone on for this long: one stopped a few months later,
the other, the dot‐com bubble, went on for three more years.
Which holds the lesson for now?
“Our sample size for this is pretty small,” said Kim
Schoenholtz, professor of management practice and director
of the center for global economy and business at New York
University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business. “Saying that
a valuation cycle and asset prices are time‐driven would
almost imply they have a regularity to them, which we know
isn’t true.”
What exactly does end market rallies is up for debate. While
some investors will say elevated valuations herald declines,
others point to inflation. History shows bear markets have
coincided with economic recessions 10 times since the Great
Depression, with the peak of equities preceding the start of
recessions by an average nine months, data compiled by
Bloomberg show.
“Given this is the first increase in rates we’ve seen in seven
or eight years, it’s only natural people are concerned,”
Marshall Front, the Chicago‐based chief investment officer at
Front Barnett Associates LLC, said by phone. “But just as the
economic recession was unprecedented, it’s possible we’re in
an unprecedented and long expansion as well.”
The source of the information in this commentary is Bloomberg News
unless otherwise noted.
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CHARTBOOK
Note: Bar chart data in brown are estimates from a Bloomberg® composite of market participants
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Note: Bar chart data in brown are estimates from a Bloomberg® composite of market participants
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