#econgrinfrastructure eastmed infrastructure in ......dimitrios j. dimitriou planning, management...

Dimitrios J. DIMITRIOUPlanning, Management & Economics in Transport Infrastructure

Professor Associate, Dept. of Economics, DUTh, GreeceChairman of the BoD, Athens International Airport

THE AIRPORT OF THE FUTURE: A TRANSPORT HUB OR A GROWTH MULTIPLIER?

#EconGRInfrastructure

EASTMED INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE NEXT DECADEIs Greece on its way to becoming a major regional hub?April 11th - 12th 2019 | Athens

Presentation outline

▪ Air Transport Ecosystem

▪ Trends and prospects

▪ Challenges for growth

▪ Business opportunities

▪ Time for a strategic Re-Think

▪ Drivers of change

▪ Discussion issues

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Dimitrios J. DIMITRIOU, “The Airport of the Future”AIA Chairman BoD, Professor Assc in Planning, Management & Economics in Transport, Dept. of Economics, DUTh

East Med infrastructure in the next decade, The Economist Events, Athens, April 12th, 2018 # 2

Tran

spo

rt d

em

and

gro

wth

Increase FDI

Increase lab our market

Improve accessibility

Lead to economic development

Lead to Welfare

Interaction of economic growth and social development

Dimitriou 2107; INTECH: Mobility, Tourism & Travel Behavior

Transport services integration socioeconomic footprint

33



Traffic 2017 vs 2040: A beyond … new world

Unaccommodated IFR Movements

(million) Unaccommodated demand (%)

2025 2030 2035 2040 2025 2030 2035 2040

Global Growth 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.7 5% 7% 10% 16%

Regulation & Growth 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2% 3% 6% 8%

Happy Localism 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2% 4% 7% 9%

Fragmenting World 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2% 2% 2% 3%

2040 (vs. 2017) - Regulation and Growth Scenario Average annual growth 2040 (vs. 2017)

Source: Eurocontrol: European Aviation in 2040; 2018

44



+ 19.2 mio Flights+ 84 % vs 2017+ 2.7 % per year



EUROCONTROL: EUROPEAN AVIATION 2040; 2018


➢ Competitiveness

➢ Regulatory framework

➢ Monitoring/Review performance

➢ Analysis of the competition

➢ Provide information to users/market

➢ Innovation

➢ New Products - services

➢ IT – ITS – SMART Business

➢ Artificial Intelligence – machine learning

➢ Research (SU)

➢ Strategy

➢ New market development

➢ Regulation / protection vs deregulation

➢ Funding – capitals leverage

➢ Socioeconomic impact

➢ Planning

➢ New business (routes, destinations, etc)

➢ Business viability (risk sharing, incentives)

➢ Intellectual property (new business)

➢ Benefits return to society (CSR)

Dimitriou et al.2017, IJESRT, 6(1)

Dimitriou, 2016; Infrastructure Governance, OECDDimitriou, 2017; Mobility as a service, UNECE, Geneva

Dimitriou et al., 2018; Transportation proceedia, Elsevier

Dimitriou, 2017; GACS II, ICAO, Athens

Dimitriou, 2017; NGAP, ICAO, Canada

Dimitriou, 2018; New Skills, Economist, Athens

Dimitriou, UNECE; 2018

Key variables influence transport business

Dimitriou, TEN-T, DG Move; 2018

55



Port Infrastructure Railroad Infrastructure

Airport Infrastructure Road Infrastructure

Completion of TEN-T Road Core Network

Quality Infrastructure Index Eurostat (2018)

66



7

AIRPORTS TRAFFIC FLUCTATION YEARLY (average last 5 years)

0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00

PVK

ZTH

SKG

KVA

CFU

EFL

CHQ

0,95

0,96

0,68

0,85

0,91

0,95

0,83

0,05

0,04

0,32

0,15

0,09

0,05

0,17

SUMMER

WINTER

0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00

KGS

JMK

MJT

RHO

KGS

JTR

0,91

0,94

0,76

0,88

0,87

0,88

0,09

0,06

0,24

0,12

0,13

0,12

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1

ATH

HER

SKG

RHO

CHQ

0,7

0,93

0,68

0,88

0,83

0,3

0,07

0,32

0,12

0,17

SUMMER

WINTER

(April-Oct)

(Nov-Mar)

Cluster A Cluster B

MAJOR AIRPORTS Dimitriou, Sartzetaki, ATRS 2016;Data Source: HCCA, AUTHORS ANALYSIS

77



Billund, Baden-Baden, Memmingen, Gdansk, Katowice, Lodz, Lappeenranta, Poznan, Rzeszow, Vilnius, Wroclaw,

Source: AIA /MIS

Malaga, Basel, Cluj, Porto, Turin, Verona, Zadar, Lamezia-Terme, Bologna, Genoa, Palermo, Zagreb

Cluj, Katowice, Kutaisi, Luton, Vilnius, Budapest, Chisinau, Bucharest, Sofia

Bristol, Basel

Aalborg, Billund, Copenhagen

Alexandroupolis,Corfu, Kos Kefallonia, Mitilini, SamosKalymnos

Dresden

Paris, Strasbourg

Verona, Heraklion

Larnaca

Larnaca

+49New airport destinations from

airlines on new & existing routes

+340additional weekly frequencies

vs Summer 2017

additional DAILY frequencies :

Amsterdam

Abu Dhabi

Frankfurt

Milan / Linate

Madrid

Moscow

Thessaloniki

Larnaca

4New airlines

1New Based airline

London Gatwick

AIA Summer 2018

network increase +19%

162 destinations from AthensJeddah, Riyadh

# 6

Inter-related pillars of AIA Development

Supply chain dimension - 2018

88



How to address competition?

Aeronautical revenues

✓ Incentives strategically directed towards traffic development

and with positive business case

Offering value for money services

Investing in positive business cases

Quality monitoring

Investing in Promotion of Destination

Continuous monitoring of trends and innovation

…and continuous update of business plans!

999



A. Transport Industry Expectations

Expectation differencing for Key Challenges

- Carriers - Completion (globalization vs protectionism)- Infrastructure operators - Connectivity (market access) - Traffic management Providers - Innovation (cost control, data use, etc.)- Authorities - Value added (socioeconomic efects)

B. Investments and Project financing

Key Strategies Key Challenges

- Concession projects - Ownership (governance vs financing) - Attract investor’s - Regulation- Market growth - Condition of contracts- National/regional goals - Workforce capacity - regulation

Transport industry trends and challenges 1/2

Dimitriou, TEN-T, DG Move; 2018

Dimitriou 2017; OECD: Governance of Infrastructure

1010



C. Tools Influencing Demand

Key challenges Key drivers for action

- Pricing policy - Cost control- Regional conditions - Security/safety- Demand patterns - Marketing-Promotion

D. Business development

Key challenges Key issues- Efficiency (operation) - LoS / LoQ- Revenues (profitability) - Financing tools- Cash flow (viability) - Governance structure

E. Management

Key challenges Key decision drivers- Risk sharing - Funding scheme- Business control - Auditing- System of System approach - HR / Talent

Transport Business challenges 2/3

Dimitriou 2017; COST/ATARD Workshop, DublinDimitriou 2017; OECD: Forum on Governance of Infrastructure, Paris

Dimitriou, 2017; NGAP, ICAO, Canada

Dimitriou, 2018; New Skills, Economist, Athens

Dimitriou et al., 2018; Transportation proceedia, Elsevier

1111



Being innovative in a changing world

✓ Understanding (…and following) changes in travel ecosystem

✓ Digital evolution

✓ Disruptions in the travel chain – Role of mega-aggregators

✓ Changes in the passenger behaviour and expectations (personalised

information, convenience through technology, additional services, etc.)

✓ Opportunities from new digital trends

✓ B2C interaction – commercial opportunities

✓ Operational efficiencies

✓ New innovative services

✓ Innovation needs agile organisations

1212



Long term strategic direction

• Investments

– Airside and terminal infrastructure to reach goals of future traffic growth

– Attract investments towards landside area development

• Business

– Promote Attika as regional, national and international destination

– Improve airport and Athens air connectivity

• Synergies

– Maritime ports and cruising

– Tourist service providers and agents

• Innovation

– Technological providers and Startups to stimulate the interest for new business in the content of digitalization

– Collaborating with research institutes all aspects of airport development, operation and management

1313



Future will be something like…

1414



Dimitrios J. DIMITRIOUPlanning, Management & Economics in Transport Infrastructure

Professor Associate, Dept. of Economics, DUTh, GreeceChairman of the BoD, Athens International Airport

THE AIRPORT OF THE FUTURE: A TRANSPORT HUB OR A GROWTH MULTIPLIER?

#EconGRInfrastructure

EASTMED INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE NEXT DECADEIs Greece on its way to becoming a major regional hub?April 11th - 12th 2019 | Athens

#econgrinfrastructure eastmed infrastructure in ......dimitrios j. dimitriou planning, management...

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