econ phd five years

7/29/2019 Econ Phd Five Years

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624

Aeran Eono Revew: Paper & Proeedn 2009, 99:2, 624629

hp://www.aeaweb.or/arle.php?do=10.1257/aer.99.2.624

Au m m-- -ms PDs ws 5.5 s 2002, pps b s (S S 2006),sm sus

u v s. O 586 vus w bPD su ms 2002, 27 p pm u sp wb 2007.

M ms PD pms vs m s v s . Sm pms u mpb m v s. Susw m v s u pp-u ss m s, s

Completing an eConomiCs pHD in Five Years: let tHe Data

(literallY) speak For tHemselves

Completing an Economics PhD in Five Years

B Wendy A. Stock, T. Aldrich Finegan, and John J. Siegried*

ps qu jbs p m $100,000 u.1 Ts w v s u ppu ss: uv-ss ms u m,

msvs ms psss, s, v s b m ss ss. H s psps u m sm s bu-, ms u msss mm-s p m sus w w vu , pb s s s pssb.

I. Completion Rates

T s pp s m msssmms p u susbu s ss w PD pmmp, w p su mw p msss mms wm m pms p sus w pms . T xms sps, w v pss 2002 s 27 US -ms PD pms 586 sus ps sx s. As 2007, w su m sm pp-

s s w pp u, pp s w w , pp w PD. Tssss p Tb 1, zb 1993 N Rs Cu (NRC)pm s (up s) (MvGb, B M, Pm E.Fu 1995).

1 F xmp, s Ap 1, 2008, PD-ss s s s s www.buw.m//Ejbm_ v $107,000.

Duan: S B, Pub P Isu C; E C-C, F Rsv B Bs; Pu H, R Cp; T Sm,Cms Uvs; Emm Sps, Pz C.

*S: Dpm Auu Ems Ems, M S Uvs, 306 L H,Bzm, MT 59717 (-m: [email protected]);F: Dpm Ems, Vb Uvs,2014 Bw, Su 305, Nsv, TN 37203 (-m:[email protected]); S: Dpm Ems, Vb Uvs; S Ems,Uvs A, Su Aus; AmEm Ass, 2014 Bw, Nsv, TN

37203 (-m: [email protected]). P Fs Yub Yv pv s sss.F supp m m F Fu.Ops, uss, mms s us ss f vws Am Em Ass F Fu.R Eb, Mm Gz, J G, DHmms, W. L Hs, Ms N, P K,J W, Bb W vs s su. K G sus mpv-ms . W w s s pm psvs w ssmb sm . Ts pp s summ m mpsvss (S, F, S 2008) w s

vss s b mp bw m wm bw US -zs -US zs).


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VOL. 99 NO. 2 625cOmPLEtiNg AN EcONOmics PHD iN iVE yEARs

T PD pms u 15 22 -s pus 12 s, u, v, s v PDs p m 1998 2001.T pms vs ms 1993NRC s, u 9 p 15 (Ts1 2), 7 x 15 (T 3), 11 s Ts 4 5 ( 3148, bv48, spv).2 Cv, smp p-ms u 42 p ms PDsw U Ss m 1998 2001.H- pms vps:22 27 m p NRC- 48pms. Bus - pmsu m qu sus v w , u us - s ppu ms

PD sus.As , 27 p 2002

ss mp w PDw v s mu. T-up pp ub vs, v 39 ps m v.3 Bs

2 O u pm ws ss T 5.3 F smp 1,001 vus w

sx u ms PD pms bw 1992

2000, Cu Gu Ss (2008) u, v s, 33 p mp ,25 p pp u, 42 p m

smp 1,154 ms PDs w u- 199697 2001-02 (w s w mp s u sms), S S (1999, 2004) u 41 p o hoe who evenuall earn aPhD deree s b v s. Asm mp sbu u 2002 ss smp, jus - u spp smppms, mps vu mp u 60 p 2002 msPD pm s.

Cmp s m s pm s, m v- m-p 33 p T 1pms u smp, 17 p

s pms bw - (T 5). Gv mps bus T 1 T 2 pmspp v m susb pms w s ( T 1 T 2 w- s v ss 18 p s, w s w- pms bv 32 p s),w up T 1 T 2 pms

w . Ts ums s w w

s sus w 9 p-15 (Ts1 2) (NRC) ms PD pms 2002.

Table 1PhD Program Attrition and Completion Rates, by Program Rank

T

1 2 3 4 5 T

Pm 16 715 1630 3148 .48

Numb pms 3 6 7 6 5 27

Numb sus 103 149 141 127 66 586

Fs- 2.9, 12.8 10.6 22.0. 22.7. 13.7

S- 10.7 4.7, 22.0. 17.3 15.2 13.8

T- 1.0 3.4 2.1 3.1 9.1. 3.2

Fu- 0.0 2.7 2.8 2.4 0.0 1.9

F- 0.0 1.3 2.8. 0.0, 1.5 1.2

T w- 13.6, 17.4, 32.6. 39.4. 37.9. 27.5

T v- 14.6, 24.8, 40.4 44.9. 48.5. 33.8

S pm 52.4. 43.6 33.3 31.5, 34.8 39.1

PD mp 33.0 31.5 26.2 23.6 16.7,

27.1

Noe: A, s pm, mp s u v ppu 586 2002 - sus, p s ps. T. , supsps m s ss m m s smp 0.05 s v (w- ss).


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mAy 2009626 AEA PAPERs AND PROcEEDiNgs

w sm mp. Bus v-mp s sus T 3 T 4pms sm, bu s T 5 p-ms mu w, w up pms Ts 3 4 , us ups bm.

II. Predicting Completion

T um ms PD p-ms s pu w PDs. E s u s qu s pssb(wu s ss ). T m-- ms PD pms sv s. I s vus mp PD s ( u smp 586

) v u s (sv u smp). T s umbs s sx s.

I Tb 2 w p sus pb smss p w vus m mus mp sw v s.4 W u mp- ss pm ss wxp fu mp s: , sssz, u-su , w uvss pv, w pm s mmss , w sus qu s sms, w vuvss ss sus, w su-s mus pss mpsv xms bp s pm,w s pv s sms- sus, pms w- , p pms ss-s ss s sss s-p s, w sus usu w b , w pm s (fxb) mp

m m, w pm s s (fx-b) mp m m (vsus m m ), w pss s pp squ pm, w suss ss ps mus m ssm- w u p.

Fw s pm ss s- pbb mp- 5 p v. T nohared ofe suss sus pms

4 Sx u 586 bsvs s bus mss xp vbs s Tb 2.

wu sp s- susv v- u pbb 25 p- ps w sus pmsw s sm s- sus ss sp. T fr-ear laze mps s su ss s ss w s xp pbb mp b 1 p- p. B sz s sups. Wm G. Bw N L. Rus (1992) u v, bu mp s sm pms b u - w w sus v m PD sus.

T sm prora-level

wo-ear aron rae suss 10 p- p s pu u- s w s sus pms ss w xp pbb u w v s bu 6 p ps. Au s s ss w pss pu ss w m msuvvs sws mp, -sp spps w sm qu ssm us smp s suvvs(s w p u). Tus, s pp sp fs m pus pssb u.

Tw pm-sp ss s 10 p v. Fs,sus PD pms T 1 2 u-vss v w xp v- mp- pbbs (b 13 p ps) sus T 3 4 uvss. S s qum pss s pp.Uu, sm su-ps s s qum

redue v- mp pbb b12 p ps, mp su pps m ss pss - -s ss.

Am su-sp ssu ss, v b-s Us New & World Reporp-60 sv b s pps ss-m mp, s pbb PD w v s b27 p ps v v

US uvs (s PD ms m p-60 sv b s s). Sus


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VOL. 99 NO. 2 627 cOmPLEtiNg AN EcONOmics PHD iN iVE yEARs

bs s m su-s sm v subs xp

v- u s s m US s uvss, u sm s ss

s 10 p v. T s-m s s m p-

50 sus j 34 p pbb PD v-s mus m US s

Table 2Predicting Completion, Probit Regression

(Dependent variable5 1 i student completed PhD within fve years)

Pm ss M dy/dXa z-s

T 1 2 0.44 0.132* 1.66

T 3 4 0.46 T 5 0.10 0.092 0.90Fs- ss sz 26.39 0.013** 2.17Fu-su 0.27 0.623 1.43Pv uvs 0.42 0.127 1.37Tm mss 0.15 0.097 0.88Sm qu 0.59 0.039 0.58C xm pss qu 0.65 0.028 0.43N s s 0.17 0.247** 2.75Ivu vss ss 0.32 0.023 0.36Pm-v w- 0.28 0.632* 1.64P sss sss 67.20 0.002 1.36M v s u usu 0.21 0.057 0.79H mp m m 0.23 0.016 0.13

S mp m m 0.46 0.073 0.97Pss s qu 0.46 0.116* 1.67Tp s ms w u 0.42 0.028 0.43

suden haraer

GRE s (*101) 72.38 0.002 0.70GRE vb s (*101) 56.32 0.000 0.17GRE quv s (*101) 77.19 0.008 1.39US z 0.34 0.044 0.58M 0.65 0.065* 1.64A pm 25.40 0.009 0.80H p u 0.45 0.027 0.56H uu ms 0.70 0.087* 1.77H uu ms/m 0.09 0.101 1.39

Ys s uu 2.66 0.012 1.01T s 0.34 0.009 0.19O s 0.41 N sp s 0.25 0.011 0.21

tpe o underraduae nuon aended

US ms PD- 0.25 0.164 1.41US p-60 b s 0.09 0.273** 1.98O US 0.05 Tp-50 0.04 0.337* 1.89O 0.57 0.194* 1.71

nanal ad durn fr ear

Fwsp 0.47 0.005 0.09

Rs ssssp 0.05 0.116 0.96T ssssp 0.28 N 0.20 0.092 1.61

Obsvs 570 570PsuR2 0.128

aRps p pbb -u p vb m. Asss s wp-vus ss 0.05 (**) 0.10 (*).


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mAy 2009628 AEA PAPERs AND PROcEEDiNgs

uvss, w s m sus v 19 p v.

N GRE ss s s pbb mp PD wv s. T sus s sw 6 pp xp v- mp m, 9 p p w xpv- mp s ws b-s ws ms; b sus s 10 p v.

Au sms mp s- s m mp, sp sms US zs -US zs (s S, F, S2008), w m US zs, p-s s PD

su bu 20 p ps m mp w v s.Am zs, s w v s m ss v s s w .

I s pssb s us mp ss(s,.., J A. G . 2008). W mp ss b sm bvpb ss, qu p- w su v s- , us p s pms m ss w v s sum.5 Ts p s w v su vs , s sus pms v v m sus su b m v msvs, s pbus.I s s v vu-s pbb u, s s bs ums sus m pm. Au ms s bv pb ss quv

5 Bus u us vb, reeved an fnan-al ad, s b, w-s s squs m-s w pu ss sms (s J M.W 2002, s. 15.7.3, Wm H. G2008, s. 23.7). W s smp pp s-m mp m xus vb, u smp smp u s sus w v s. T b bw s w ss sms s , u GREquv s s psv s 10 p-

v ss uss u smp (buxus vbs), bms sm s s smp.

ss w s p Tb 2 (ssus vb m us), ssv m sp, usus qus v.

Au u smp s m psvss pm s, u mp sms qu sm s Sus A . (2007), w sm pb sss p mp pbbs 782 PDsus w u T 1 mspms u 1990s. I upubs p-b sms mp b 2006(w m s ) GRE ss, , s p uu su sus, u mp-

pbbs bs GRE ss -, bu u xp pbbs mp PD sus ws uu- s w 2006 Us New &World Repor US p-15 u-vs uvs. Tu sus w (p5) b s w m m-p , bu s sp-p m s.

Ou sus qu sm s, w xp u sms sus ws uu s m p-60 b s s s b Us New & World Reporv m-p pbbs, bu um USms PD- sus (wus p-15 uvss A . z) . T - sus u s b s -us v pbb mp PD pms T 25 u-vss, w v v um

uu pms PD- sus s m T1 ms PD pms.

III. Conclusion

T mp sus p pv mu u bu w mpvmp s US ms PD p-ms. I pps s szwu p, u w w s ms,

s usu pss bu szmp mp s sm szs. Av sus


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VOL. 99 NO. 2 629cOmPLEtiNg AN EcONOmics PHD iN iVE yEARs

w s- sus v ss sp sms b mp mp-, m b s u s ms bv-us p w u mm s pms u pvsp s sm s- ms PDsus.

Pps v m mss p pps w bs Ams sv b s swu mpv mp s m. Bu, , pps m ssuqu vu sus u w msusu s mb, mv,pss, z ss, v sus, s sus suss s

w s m mv ss mu um m mss w w b msu, wv u ss 15 p v mp m sus.

REFERENCES

Athey, Susan, Lawrence F. Katz, Alan B. Krueger,

Steven Levitt, and James Poterba.2007. WDs Pm Gu S P-? Gu Ems Eu Su- Oums.Aeran Eono Revew,97(2): 51218.

BluWiki. 2008. p://www.buw.m//BuW_.

Bowen, William G., and Neil L. Rudenstine. 1992.in Puru o he Ph.D. P, NJ: P- Uvs Pss.

Council of Graduate Schools.2008. Ph.D. co-pleon and Aron: Anal o BaelneProra Daa ro he Ph.D. copleon

Proje. Ws, DC: Cu Gu- Ss.

Goldberger, Marvin, Brendan A. Maher, and

Pamela E. Flattau, ed.1995.Reearh-door-ae Prora n he Uned sae: connuand chane. Ws, DC: N A-ms Pss.

Greene, William H.2007.Eonoer Anal.6 . Upp S Rv, NJ: Ps/P- H.

Groen, Jeffrey A., George H. Jakubson, Ronald

G. Ehrenberg, Scott Condie, and Albert Y. Liu.2008. Pm Ds Su Oums Gu Eu.Eono o Edua-on Revew, 27(2): 11124.

Siegfried, John J., and Wendy A. Stock. 1999.

T Lb M Nw P.D. E-mss. Journal o Eono Perpeve,13(3): 11534.

Siegfried, John J., and Wendy A. Stock. 2004.T M Nw P.D. Emss 2002.Aeran Eono Revew, 94(2): 27285.

Stock, Wendy A., and John J. Siegfried. 2006.Tm--D Ems P.D.Css 20012002. Aeran EonoRevew, 96(2): 46774.

Stock, Wendy, T. Aldrich Finegan, and John J.

Siegfried. 2008. C Yu E P.D. Ems Fv Ys? Dpm Ems, Vb Uvs WPp 0818.

US News & World Report. 2008. Ws BsCs Uvss. p://www.usws.m/s/u/ws-bs-s/2008/11/20/ws-bs-s--uvss-p-200.m.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002.Eonoer Anal- o cro seon and Panel Daa. Cm-b, MA: MIT Pss.

econ phd five years

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