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Milken Institute
2005 Global ConferenceApril 18, 19 and 20, 2005
Los Angeles, CA
Milken Institute
2004 State of the StateOctober 13,2004
Beverly Hilton, Los Angeles
Panel Sponsored by:
109876543210
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
PPP$ Billions
Democracy and National IncomeLevel of Democracy and Average Annual Growth
More DemocraticLess Democratic
109876543210
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent
10-Year Growth5-Year Growth
Democracy and Economic GrowthLevel of Democracy and Average Annual Growth
More DemocraticLess Democratic
Most DemocraticPartially DemocraticLeast Democratic
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
PPP$ Billions
Democracy and National IncomeLevel of Democracy and GDP in PPP Terms
Most DemocraticPartially DemocraticLeast Democratic
5
4
3
2
1
0
Percent
10-Year Growth5-Year Growth
Democracy and Economic GrowthLevel of Democracy and Average Annual Growth
9994898479
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent
40s 50s 60-64 65-69 70s +
Employed Men by Age Group Percent by Year, 1979-2000
9994898479
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent
40s 50s 60-64 65-69 70s +
Employed Women by Age Group Percent by Year, 1979-2000
9994898479
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent
40s 50s 60-64 65-69 70s +
Non-Labor Force Men by Age Group Percent by Year, 1979-2000
9994898479
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent
40s 50s 60-64 65-69 70s +
Non-Labor Force Women by Age Group Percent by Year, 1979-2000
Asian Higher Education LandscapePercent of Workforce with Secondary Education or Better
Untapped Potential: Growing Pool of Postsecondary Students…
TaiwanHong Kong
South KoreaChina
JapanThailand
100
80
60
40
20
0
Year 2000Year 2020
Non-High School
16%
Some College17%
Associate8%
Bachelor +26%
High School33%
Supply: Highest Level of Education(25 years and older)
Total personsage 25 and over:177.0 million
17% Bachelor only
The Workplace DemandRapid and Accelerating Demand for Skilled Labor
60%
20% 20%
45%
35%
20%
65% 15%
20%
1950 1991 2000
12.4 MM 56.4 MM 91.2 MM
Skilled Unskilled Professional
Population GrowthProjections, 2005-2025
20252020
20152010
2005
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
Index 2005=100
More Developed RegionsLess Developed Regions
World Population – Urban vs. RuralAs Percent of Total Population, 1980-2030
20302025
20202015
20102005
20001995
19901985
1980
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Percent
*U.N. ProjectionsUrban Rural
Inflow of Foreign WorkersPer 100,000
FranceItaly
JapanU.K.
U.S.Canada
AustriaAustralia
GermanyNew Zealand
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Per Hundred Thousand
Net Number of MigrantsBy Selected Country, 1995-2000
ChinaMexico
IndiaPhilippines
IndonesiaArgentina
FranceJapan
U.K.U.S.
1500
1000
500
0
-500
Thousands
Migrant StockAs Percent of Population, 2000
IndonesiaPhilippines
MexicoIndia
ArgentinaJapan
U.K.France
U.S.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Percent
Top 10 CountriesNumber of Patents granted, 2003
Country Per Million PeopleJapan 994South Korea 779United States 289Sweden 271Germany 235France 205Luxembourg 202Netherlands 189Finland 187Switzerland 183
Residential Patent ApplicationsPer 100,000 Residents
ChinaRussian Fed.
CanadaFrance
AustraliaU.K.
U.S.Germany
SwitzerlandJapan
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
# of patent applications
IT - Most Active Area of Outsourcing2004
IT,28%
Human Resources,
16%
Sales & Marketing,
15%
Finance,11%
Admin.,9%
All Others,21%
Top 10 Fastest Growing OccupationsNumbers in Thousands of Jobs, 2002-2012
Occupations Number PercentMedical Assistants 215 59Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 106 57Physician Assistants 31 49Social and Human Services Assistants 149 49Home Health Aides 279 48Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 69 47Physician Therapist Aides 17 46Computer Software Engineers, Applications 179 46Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 128 45Physical Therapist Assistants 22 45
Change
Top 10 Fastest Growing IndustriesNumbers in Thousands of Jobs, 2002-2012
Industry Number PercentSoftware Publishers 173.7 67.9Management, Scientific, & Technical Consulting Services 405.6 55.4Community Care Facilities 382.3 55.0Computer Systems Design & Related Systems 635.0 54.6Employment Services 1763.5 54.3Individual and Vocational Rehabilitation Services 597.3 47.1Ambulatory Health Care Services 669.8 46.4Water, Sewage , and Other Systems 22.5 46.4Internet Services, Data Processing, and Other Info. Services 244.3 46.2Child Day Care Services 316.1 43.1
Change
93
9
80514537261917
5 96 8
93 105127
5845
4733
2672 2778
3456
2063
12761014
757472453295145105
4033
6464
Q3 99
Q4 Q1 00
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 01
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 02
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q103
Q2
CampusesCoursesRegistrations
Online Learning Growth
Fiscal years
32% Compound Growth Rate
China and Education
• Between 1978 and 2002, more than 580,000 Chinese students have studied abroad.
• Of these students, more than 150,000 have returned home. 270,000 of the remaining students are continuing their studies at universities or institutes of higher learning.
• As a whole, the number or returned overseas students accounts for a big percentage of the total number of people working in education and scientific research.
Individuals Granted Asylum in U.S.Top 10 Nationalities, 2002
Nationality 1997 2002PercentChange
China 485 5,713 1078%Colombia 48 4,958 10229%India 871 1,081 24%Ethiopia 451 1,044 131%Haiti 699 989 41%Armenia 248 959 287%Iran 416 716 72%Cameroon 79 708 796%Liberia 478 602 26%Iraq 5,777 560 -90%
Countries With The Most WorkersPeople Aged 15-64 Currently EmployedRank Country Millions
1 China 766.92 India 442.23 United States 145.14 Indonesia 102.65 Brazil 79.26 Russia 78.07 Bangladesh 69.68 Japan 68.49 Pakistan 52.1
10 Nigeria 45.1
Demographic TrendsBy Region
Major Area
Pop.Size, 1999(millions)
Pop.growth
rate,1995-2000 (%)
Life Exp.1995-2000
(years)
1995-2000avg. # of
children per women)
World 5978 1.3 65 2.7More Developed Regions 1185 0.3 75 1.6Less Developed Regions 4793 1.6 63 3.0
Africa 767 2.4 51 5.1Asia 3634 1.4 66 2.6Europe 729 0.0 73 1.4Latin America 511 1.6 69 2.7North America 307 0.8 77 1.9Oceania 30 1.3 74 2.4
Foreign Students in JapanBy Country of Origin, 2003
China, 64.7%
S. Korea, 14.5%
Taiwan, 3.9%
Malaysia, 1.8%Thailand,
1.5%
Other, 12.2%
Indonesia, 1.4%
Pace of Economic GrowthNumber of Years to Double Per Capita GDP
ChinaChina
KoreaIndonesia
JapanU.S.
U.K.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Years
1885-1919
1970-88
1780-1838
1966-77 1978-87 1987-96
1839-86
Japan – Births & Deaths2000-2030
2025-302020-252015-202010-152005-102000-05
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
Millions
BirthsDeaths
Population Growth- Japan2000-2030
2025-302020-252015-202010-152005-102000-05
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Growth Rates
U.S.MDCsJapan
50E40E30E20E10E009080701960
100
80
60
40
20
0
Percent of population
15- to 64-year-old
Over 65-year-old
Japan: Growing Older Population,Declining Working Population
Population Growth - Russia2000-2030
Year Population (mil) Growth Rate (%)1960 119.6 1.61970 130.2 0.91980 139.0 0.71990 148.1 0.62000 146.0 -0.12010 142.3 -0.32020 139.0 -0.22030 132.9 -0.3
Life Expectancy
20011980
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
Age
RussiaGermanyIsrael
Computer ProgrammersAverage Salaries, 2003
Country Salary RangePoland & Hungary $4,800 - $8,000India $5,880 - $11,000Philippines $6,564Malaysia $7,200Russian Federation $5,000 - $7,500China $8,952Canada $28,174Ireland $23,000 - $34,000Israel $15,000 - $38,000USA $60,000 - $80,000
Global Entrepreneurship PatternsNumber of Publicly Listed Companies
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
10
8
6
4
2
0
Thousands
United States CanadaIndia Japan
United States vs. EuropeJob Creation
020098969492908886848280
140
130
120
110
100
90
Index 1980=100
United StatesEurope
Education Expenditure Per student(As Percent of GDP per Capita)
MexicoU.K
JapanU.S.
GermanyKorea
AustraliaItaly
FranceSwitzerland
35
30
25
20
15
10
Percent
Primary LevelSecondary Level
Student-Teacher RatioPublic and Private Institutions
ItalyFrance
U.K.Spain
MexicoU.S.
ChinaGermany
JapanCanada
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
Ratio
Labor Force Participation RatesPopulation Aged 25-64, By Gender
TurkeyMexico
KoreaJapan
AustraliaGermany
FranceCanada
U.S.U.K.
100
80
60
40
20
Percent
malefemale
Number of ImmigrantsBy Country of Origin
20001900
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Thousands
EuropeAsiaLatin America
U.S. – Economy at a Glance
U.S. - Data Series Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004
Unemployment rate, (%, SAAR) 6 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7Change in Payroll Employment, (ths., SAAR) 88 83 8 159 46 (P) 308(P)Average Hourly Earnings* 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.52 (P) 15.54(P)Consumer Price Index** - 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3U.S. Import Price Index*** 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.9Employment Cost Index****Productivity*For Production and Nonsupervisory workers on Private Nonfarm Payrolls, SAAR** All Items, U.S. City Average, All Urban Consumers, 1982-84=100, 1-Month Percent Change, SAAR*** All Imports, 1-Month Percent Change, Not SAAR****Compensation, All Civilian Workers, Quarterly Data, Percent Change, SAAR*****Output per Hour, Nonfarm Business, Quarterly Data, Percent Change from previous Quarter at Annual Rate, SAAR(p) Preliminary
0.72.6
China’s Growth Exceeds Its NeighborsReal GDP Growth
20042002200019981996199419921990
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Percent Change, Year Ago
China IndonesiaKorea MalaysiaPhilippines Thailand
United StatesReal GDP Growth
030201009998979695949392
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, SAAR
2004 Capital Access Index
4.6
4.8
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
Hong K
ong
Netherl
ands U.K.
Singa
pore
Switze
rland U.S.
Austra
lia
Finlan
d
German
y
Denmark
New Ze
aland
Irelan
d
Canad
a
Swed
en
Taiw
anSp
ain
Franc
e
Icelan
dJa
pan
Austria
Belgium
Portu
gal
Israe
l
South
KoreaNorw
ay
The Global Education Market
DemographicsHigher Education
MarketOutsourcing
Branding
Cons
olida
tion
InternetGlobalization
Six Megatrends Shaping the Global Higher Education Market
Consumer Confidence IndexConference Board
030201009998979695949392
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Percent Change, Year Ago
U.S. International TradeExports vs. Imports (Goods and Services)
030201009998979695
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
ExportsImports
200220001998199619941992199019881986
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
US$ Trillions US$ Billions
Global Futures MarketNotional Amounts
Interest Rate (L)
Currency (R)
Equity Index (R)
Global Options MarketNotional Amounts
200220001998199619941992199019881986
25
20
15
10
5
0
150
120
90
60
30
0
US$ Trillions US$ Billions
Interest Rate (L)
Currency (R)
Equity Index (L)
U.S. UnemploymentCivilian Unemployment Rate
009590858075706560
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Percent
Rising U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices
04020098969492908886848280
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
US$/Gallon
Real (2004 dollars)
Nominal
Proj
ectio
ns
200019951990198519801975197019651960
70
60
50
40
30
Percent of GDP
Is the World Threatened by U.S. Budget Deficits?
Relative Unemployment Rates
7.07.17.25.2N/ALatin America
8.07.810.18.9N/AEuropean Union
6.04.05.65.67.2United States
5.34.73.22.12.6Japan
N/A3.12.92.51.8China
20032000199519901985
Relative Growth RatesReal GDP Growth
1.14.01.80.63.16.3Latin America
0.83.62.53.12.51.4European Union
2.63.82.71.83.8-0.2United States
2.02.81.85.24.69.6Japan
7.58.010.53.813.57.9China
200320001995199019851980
200320022001
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Yen Per Dollar
Sep.11, 2001
Bush’s Speech at the UN about Iraq
Congress authorized use of
force in Iraq.
Saddam statue toppled.
Decline of the Dollar 9-11 and Iraq
200320022001
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Basis Points
Risk Spread, 9-11 and Iraq
Sep.11, 2001
Bush’s Speech at the UN about Iraq
Congress authorized use of
force in Iraq.
Saddam statue toppled.