econ 626: applied microeconomics -...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics
Lecture 3:
Difference-in-Differences
Professors: Pamela Jakiela and Owen Ozier
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Intuition and Assumptions
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False Counterfactuals
Before vs. After Comparisons:
• Compares: same individuals/communities before and after program
• Drawback: does not control for time trends
Participant vs. Non-Participant Comparisons:
• Compares: participants to those not in the program
• Drawback: selection — why didn’t non-participants participate?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 3
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Two Wrongs Sometimes Make a Right
Difference-in-differences (or “diff-in-diff” or “DD”) estimation combinesthe (flawed) pre vs. post and participant vs. non-participant approaches
• This can sometimes overcome the twin problems of [1] selection bias(on fixed traits) and [2] time trends in the outcome of interest
• The basic idea is to observe the (self-selected) treatment group anda (self-selected) comparison group before and after the program
The diff-in-diff estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 4
![Page 5: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Two Wrongs Sometimes Make a Right
Difference-in-differences (or “diff-in-diff” or “DD”) estimation combinesthe (flawed) pre vs. post and participant vs. non-participant approaches
• This can sometimes overcome the twin problems of [1] selection bias(on fixed traits) and [2] time trends in the outcome of interest
• The basic idea is to observe the (self-selected) treatment group anda (self-selected) comparison group before and after the program
The diff-in-diff estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 4
![Page 6: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
1849: London’s worst cholera epidemic claims 14,137 lives
• Two companies supplied water to much of London: the LambethWaterworks Co. and the Southwark and Vauxhall Water Co.
I Both got their water from the Thames
• John Snow believed cholera was spread by contaminated water
1852: Lambeth Waterworks moved their intake upriver
• Everyone knew that the Thames was dirty below central London
1853: London has another cholera outbreak
• Are Lambeth Waterworks customers less likely to get sick?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 5
![Page 7: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
1849: London’s worst cholera epidemic claims 14,137 lives
• Two companies supplied water to much of London: the LambethWaterworks Co. and the Southwark and Vauxhall Water Co.
I Both got their water from the Thames
• John Snow believed cholera was spread by contaminated water
1852: Lambeth Waterworks moved their intake upriver
• Everyone knew that the Thames was dirty below central London
1853: London has another cholera outbreak
• Are Lambeth Waterworks customers less likely to get sick?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 5
![Page 8: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
1849: London’s worst cholera epidemic claims 14,137 lives
• Two companies supplied water to much of London: the LambethWaterworks Co. and the Southwark and Vauxhall Water Co.
I Both got their water from the Thames
• John Snow believed cholera was spread by contaminated water
1852: Lambeth Waterworks moved their intake upriver
• Everyone knew that the Thames was dirty below central London
1853: London has another cholera outbreak
• Are Lambeth Waterworks customers less likely to get sick?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 5
![Page 9: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
1849: London’s worst cholera epidemic claims 14,137 lives
• Two companies supplied water to much of London: the LambethWaterworks Co. and the Southwark and Vauxhall Water Co.
I Both got their water from the Thames
• John Snow believed cholera was spread by contaminated water
1852: Lambeth Waterworks moved their intake upriver
• Everyone knew that the Thames was dirty below central London
1853: London has another cholera outbreak
• Are Lambeth Waterworks customers less likely to get sick?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 5
![Page 10: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
Source: John Snow Archive and Research CompanionUMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 6
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DD Estimation: Early Examples
John Snow’s Grand Experiment:
• Mortality data showed that very few cholera deaths were reported inareas of London that were only supplied by the Lambeth Waterworks
• Snow hired John Whiting to visit the homes of the deceased todetermine which company (if any) supplied their drinking water
• Using Whiting’s data, Snow calculated the death rate
I Southwark and Vauxhall: 71 cholera deaths/10,000 homes
I Lambeth: 5 cholera deaths/10,000 homes
• Southwark and Vauxhall responsible for 286 of 334 deaths
I Southwark and Vauxhall moved their intake upriver in 1855
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 7
![Page 12: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
John Snow’s Grand Experiment:
• Mortality data showed that very few cholera deaths were reported inareas of London that were only supplied by the Lambeth Waterworks
• Snow hired John Whiting to visit the homes of the deceased todetermine which company (if any) supplied their drinking water
• Using Whiting’s data, Snow calculated the death rate
I Southwark and Vauxhall: 71 cholera deaths/10,000 homes
I Lambeth: 5 cholera deaths/10,000 homes
• Southwark and Vauxhall responsible for 286 of 334 deaths
I Southwark and Vauxhall moved their intake upriver in 1855
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 7
![Page 13: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
In the 1840s, observers of Vienna’s maternity hospital noted that deathrates from postpartum infections were higher in one wing than the other
• Division 1 patients were attended by doctors and trainee doctors
• Division 2 patients were attended by midwives and trainee midwives
Ignaz Semmelweis noted that the difference emerged in 1841, when thehospital moved to an “anatomical” training program involving cadavers
• Doctors received new training; midwives never handled cadavers
• Did the transference of “cadaveric particles” explain the death rate?
Semmelweis proposed an intervention: hand-washing with chlorine
• Policy implemented in May of 1847
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 8
![Page 14: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
In the 1840s, observers of Vienna’s maternity hospital noted that deathrates from postpartum infections were higher in one wing than the other
• Division 1 patients were attended by doctors and trainee doctors
• Division 2 patients were attended by midwives and trainee midwives
Ignaz Semmelweis noted that the difference emerged in 1841, when thehospital moved to an “anatomical” training program involving cadavers
• Doctors received new training; midwives never handled cadavers
• Did the transference of “cadaveric particles” explain the death rate?
Semmelweis proposed an intervention: hand-washing with chlorine
• Policy implemented in May of 1847
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 8
![Page 15: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
In the 1840s, observers of Vienna’s maternity hospital noted that deathrates from postpartum infections were higher in one wing than the other
• Division 1 patients were attended by doctors and trainee doctors
• Division 2 patients were attended by midwives and trainee midwives
Ignaz Semmelweis noted that the difference emerged in 1841, when thehospital moved to an “anatomical” training program involving cadavers
• Doctors received new training; midwives never handled cadavers
• Did the transference of “cadaveric particles” explain the death rate?
Semmelweis proposed an intervention: hand-washing with chlorine
• Policy implemented in May of 1847
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 8
![Page 16: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
DD Estimation: Early Examples
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 9
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DD Estimation: Early Examples
Source: Obenauer and Nienburg (1915)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 10
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DD Estimation: Early Examples
In 1913, Oregon increased the minimum wage for experienced womento $9.25 per week, with a maximum of 50 hours of work per week
• Minimum wage for inexperienced women (and girls) also increased,but was new minimum ($6/week) not seen as a binding constraint
• Obenauer and Nienburg obtain HR records of 40 firms
• Compare employment of experienced women before after minimumwage to law to employment of girls, inexperienced women, men
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 11
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DD Estimation: Early Examples
Source: Obenauer and Nienburg (1915)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 12
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DD Estimation: Early Examples
Source: Kennan (1995)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 13
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Treatment Comparison
Pre-Program Y treatmentpre Y comparison
pre
Post-Program Y treatmentpost Y comparison
post
Intuitively, diff-in-diff estimation is just a comparison of 4 cell-level means
• Only one cell is treated: Treatment×Post-Program
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 14
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
The assumption underlying diff-in-diff estimation is that, in the absenceof the program, individual i ’s outcome at time t is given by:
E [Yi |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
There are two implicit identifying assumptions here:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
I The magnitude of the selection bias term isn’t changing over time
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
Both necessary conditions for identification in diff-in-diff estimation
• Referred to as the common trends assumption
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 15
![Page 23: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Difference-in-Differences Estimation
The assumption underlying diff-in-diff estimation is that, in the absenceof the program, individual i ’s outcome at time t is given by:
E [Yi |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
There are two implicit identifying assumptions here:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
I The magnitude of the selection bias term isn’t changing over time
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
Both necessary conditions for identification in diff-in-diff estimation
• Referred to as the common trends assumption
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 15
![Page 24: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Difference-in-Differences Estimation
The assumption underlying diff-in-diff estimation is that, in the absenceof the program, individual i ’s outcome at time t is given by:
E [Yi |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
There are two implicit identifying assumptions here:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
I The magnitude of the selection bias term isn’t changing over time
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
Both necessary conditions for identification in diff-in-diff estimation
• Referred to as the common trends assumption
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 15
![Page 25: ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics - Economics.ozier.comeconomics.ozier.com/econ626/lec/econ626-L03-slides-2019.pdf · ECON 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Di erence-in-Di erences](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022043010/5fa0dfebd601c8075105c7b9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Difference-in-Differences Estimation
In the absence of the program, i ’s outcome at time τ is:
E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
Outcomes in the comparison group:
E [Y comparisonpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1
E [Y comparisonpost ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2
The comparison group allows us to estimate the time trend:
E [Y comparisonpost ]− E [Y comparison
pre ] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1)
= λ2 − λ1
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 16
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
In the absence of the program, i ’s outcome at time τ is:
E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
Outcomes in the comparison group:
E [Y comparisonpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1
E [Y comparisonpost ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2
The comparison group allows us to estimate the time trend:
E [Y comparisonpost ]− E [Y comparison
pre ] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1)
= λ2 − λ1
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 16
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
In the absence of the program, i ’s outcome at time τ is:
E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = τ ] = γi + λτ
Outcomes in the comparison group:
E [Y comparisonpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1
E [Y comparisonpost ] = E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2
The comparison group allows us to estimate the time trend:
E [Y comparisonpost ]− E [Y comparison
pre ] = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1)
= λ2 − λ1
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 16
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Let δ denote the true impact of the program:
δ = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = τ ]− E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = τ ]
which does not depend on the time period or i ’s characteristics
Outcomes in the treatment group:
E [Y treatmentpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1
E [Y treatmentpost ] = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2
Differences in outcomes pre-treatment vs. post treatment cannot beattributed to the program; treatment effect is conflated with time trend
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 17
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Let δ denote the true impact of the program:
δ = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = τ ]− E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = τ ]
which does not depend on the time period or i ’s characteristics
Outcomes in the treatment group:
E [Y treatmentpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1
E [Y treatmentpost ] = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2
Differences in outcomes pre-treatment vs. post treatment cannot beattributed to the program; treatment effect is conflated with time trend
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 17
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Let δ denote the true impact of the program:
δ = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = τ ]− E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = τ ]
which does not depend on the time period or i ’s characteristics
Outcomes in the treatment group:
E [Y treatmentpre ] = E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = 1] = E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1
E [Y treatmentpost ] = E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = 2] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2
Differences in outcomes pre-treatment vs. post treatment cannot beattributed to the program; treatment effect is conflated with time trend
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 17
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
If we were to calculate a pre-vs-post estimator, we’d have:
E [Y treatmentpost ]− E [Y treatment
pre ] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1)
= δ + λ2 − λ1︸ ︷︷ ︸time trend
If we calculated a treatment vs. comparison estimator, we’d have:
E [Y treatmentpost ]− E [Y comparison
post ] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2)
= δ + E [γi |Di = 1]− E [γi |Di = 0]︸ ︷︷ ︸selection bias
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 18
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
If we were to calculate a pre-vs-post estimator, we’d have:
E [Y treatmentpost ]− E [Y treatment
pre ] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1)
= δ + λ2 − λ1︸ ︷︷ ︸time trend
If we calculated a treatment vs. comparison estimator, we’d have:
E [Y treatmentpost ]− E [Y comparison
post ] = E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2)
= δ + E [γi |Di = 1]− E [γi |Di = 0]︸ ︷︷ ︸selection bias
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 18
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Substituting in the terms from our model:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparison
post − Y comparisonpre
)= E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = 2]− E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = 1]
−(E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 2]− E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 1]
)= E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1)
−[E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2 −
(E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1
)]
= δ
DD estimation recovers the true impact of the program on participants(as long as the common trends assumption isn’t violated)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 19
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
Substituting in the terms from our model:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparison
post − Y comparisonpre
)= E [Y1i |Di = 1, t = 2]− E [Y0i |Di = 1, t = 1]
−(E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 2]− E [Y0i |Di = 0, t = 1]
)= E [γi |Di = 1] + δ + λ2 − (E [γi |Di = 1] + λ1)
−[E [γi |Di = 0] + λ2 −
(E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1
)]
= δ
DD estimation recovers the true impact of the program on participants(as long as the common trends assumption isn’t violated)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 19
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Difference-in-Differences Estimation
DD does not rely on assumption of homogeneous treatment effects
• When treatment effects are homogeneous, DD estimation yieldsaverage treatment effect on the treated (ATT)
• Averages across treated units and over time
I When impacts change over time (within treated units), DD estimateof treatment effect may depend on choice of evaluation window
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 20
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Example: A Natural Experiment in Education
In a famous paper in the American Economic Review, Esther Dufloexamines the impacts of a large school construction program in Indonesia
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 21
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Example: A Natural Experiment in Education
The Sekolar Dasar INPRES program (1973–1979):
• Oil crisis creates large windfall for Indonesia
• Suharto uses oil money to fund school construction
• Close to 62,000 schools built by national gov’t
I Approximately 1 school built per 500 school-age children
• More schools built in areas which started with fewer schools
• Schools intended to promote equality, national identity
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 22
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
Do children who were born into areas with more newly built INPRESprimary schools get more education? Do they earn more as adults?
Strategy: difference-in-differences estimation
• Data on children born before and after program (pre vs. post)
I Children aged 12 and up in 1974 did not benefit from program
I Children aged 6 and under were young enough to be treated
• Data on children born in communities where many schools werebuilt (treatment), those where few schools were built (comparison)
I Partition sample based on residuals from a regression of the numberof schools built (per district) on the number of school-aged children
• Difference-in-differences estimate of program impact comparespre vs. post differences in treatment vs. comparison communities
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 23
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
Do children who were born into areas with more newly built INPRESprimary schools get more education? Do they earn more as adults?
Strategy: difference-in-differences estimation
• Data on children born before and after program (pre vs. post)
I Children aged 12 and up in 1974 did not benefit from program
I Children aged 6 and under were young enough to be treated
• Data on children born in communities where many schools werebuilt (treatment), those where few schools were built (comparison)
I Partition sample based on residuals from a regression of the numberof schools built (per district) on the number of school-aged children
• Difference-in-differences estimate of program impact comparespre vs. post differences in treatment vs. comparison communities
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 23
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
The simplest difference-in-differences estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
Dependent Variable: Years of Schooling
Many Schools Built Few Schools Built Difference
Over 11 in 1974 8.02 9.40 -1.38
Under 7 in 1974 8.49 9.76 -1.27
Difference 0.47 0.36 0.12
Difference-in-differences estimation compares the change in years ofschooling (i.e. the pre vs. post estimate) in treatment, control areas
• Program areas increased faster than comparison areas
• Difference is not statistically significant
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 24
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
The simplest difference-in-differences estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
Dependent Variable: Years of Schooling
Many Schools Built Few Schools Built Difference
Over 11 in 1974 8.02 9.40 -1.38
Under 7 in 1974 8.49 9.76 -1.27
Difference 0.47 0.36 0.12
Difference-in-differences estimation compares the change in years ofschooling (i.e. the pre vs. post estimate) in treatment, control areas
• Program areas increased faster than comparison areas
• Difference is not statistically significant
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 24
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
The simplest difference-in-differences estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
Dependent Variable: Log (Wages)
Many Schools Built Few Schools Built Difference
Over 11 in 1974 6.87 7.02 -0.15
Under 7 in 1974 6.61 6.73 -0.12
Difference -0.26 -0.29 0.026
Difference-in-differences estimation compares the change in the log ofadult wages (i.e. the pre vs. post estimate) in treatment, control areas
• Program had a modest impact on adult wages
• Difference is not statistically significant
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 25
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The Return to Education in Indonesia
The simplest difference-in-differences estimator is:
DD = Y treatmentpost − Y treatment
pre −(Y comparisonpost − Y comparison
pre
)
Dependent Variable: Log (Wages)
Many Schools Built Few Schools Built Difference
Over 11 in 1974 6.87 7.02 -0.15
Under 7 in 1974 6.61 6.73 -0.12
Difference -0.26 -0.29 0.026
Difference-in-differences estimation compares the change in the log ofadult wages (i.e. the pre vs. post estimate) in treatment, control areas
• Program had a modest impact on adult wages
• Difference is not statistically significant
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 25
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DD in a Regression Framework
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DD in a Regression Framework
To implement diff-in-diff in a regression framework, we estimate:
Yi,t = α + βDi + ζPostt + δ (Di ∗ Postt) + εi,t
where:
• Posti is an indicator equal to 1 if t = 2
• δ is the coefficient of interest (the treatment effect)
• α = E [γi |Di = 0] + λ1 — pre-program mean in comparison group
• β = E [γi |Di = 1]− E [γi |Di = 0] — selection bias
• ζ = λ2 − λ1 — time trend
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 27
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DD in a Regression Framework
Pooled OLS specification is equivalent to first differences:
Yi,2 − Yi,1 = η + γDi + εit
where:
• Yi,2 − Yi,1 is the change (pre vs. post) in the outcome of interest
• γ is the coefficient of interest (the treatment effect)
• η is the time trend
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 28
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DD in a Regression Framework
We can also implement diff-in-diff in a panel data framework when morethan two periods of data are available; this can increase statistical power∗
Yi,t = α + ηi + νt + γDi,t + εi,t
with some caveats:
• Variation in treatment timing?
• Allows for a credible defense of the common trends assumption
I Unless the common trends assumption is violated
• Serial correlation in treatment and outcome variable is a problem
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 29
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DD in a Regression Framework
We can also implement diff-in-diff in a panel data framework when morethan two periods of data are available; this can increase statistical power∗
Yi,t = α + ηi + νt + γDi,t + εi,t
with some caveats:
• Variation in treatment timing?
• Allows for a credible defense of the common trends assumption
I Unless the common trends assumption is violated
• Serial correlation in treatment and outcome variable is a problem
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 29
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DD in a Regression Framework
PRE POST
y
time
Treatment
Control
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 30
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DD in a Regression Framework
PRE POST
y
time
Treatment
Control
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 31
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DD in a Regression Framework
Event study framework includes dummies for each post-treatment period:
Yi,t = α + ηi + νt + γ1D1i,t + γ2D2i,t + γ3D3i,t + . . .+ εi,t
When treatment intensity is a continuous variable:
Yi,t = α + βIntensityi + ζPostt + δ (Intensityi ∗ Postt) + εi,t
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 32
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DD in a Regression Framework
Event study framework includes dummies for each post-treatment period:
Yi,t = α + ηi + νt + γ1D1i,t + γ2D2i,t + γ3D3i,t + . . .+ εi,t
When treatment intensity is a continuous variable:
Yi,t = α + βIntensityi + ζPostt + δ (Intensityi ∗ Postt) + εi,t
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 32
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Example: A Natural Experiment in Education
Main empirical specification in Duflo (2001):
Sijk = α + ηj + βk + γ (Intensityj ∗ Youngi ) + Cjδ + εijk
where:
• Sijk = education of individual i born in region j in year k
• ηj = region of birth fixed effect
• βk = year of birth fixed effect
• Youngi = dummy for being 6 or younger in 1974 (treatment group)
• Intensityj = INPRES schools per thousand school-aged children
• Cj = a vector of region-specific controls (that change over time)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 33
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Example: A Natural Experiment in Education
Dependent Variable: Years of Education
OLS OLS OLS
Obs. (1) (2) (3)
Panel A: Entire Sample
Intensityj ∗ Youngi 78,470 0.124 0.150 0.188
(0.025) (0.026) (0.029)
Panel B: Sample of Wage Earners
Intensityj ∗ Youngi 31,061 0.196 0.199 0.259
(0.042) (0.043) (0.050)
Controls Included:
YOB∗enrollment rate in 1971 No Yes Yes
YOB∗other INPRES programs No No Yes
Sample includes individuals aged 2 to 6 or 12 to 17 in 1974. All Specifications includeregion of birth dummies, year of birth dummies, and interactions between the year ofbirth dummis and the number of children in the region of birth (in 1971). Standarderrors are in parentheses.
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 34
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Example: A Natural Experiment in Education
Dependent Variable: Log Hourly Wages (as Adults)
OLS OLS OLS
Obs. (1) (2) (3)
Panel A: Sample of Wage Earners
Intensityj ∗ Youngi 31,061 0.0147 0.0172 0.027
(0.007) (0.007) (0.008)
Controls Included:
YOB∗enrollment rate in 1971 No Yes Yes
YOB∗other INPRES programs No No Yes
Sample includes individuals aged 2 to 6 or 12 to 17 in 1974. All Specifications includeregion of birth dummies, year of birth dummies, and interactions between the year ofbirth dummis and the number of children in the region of birth (in 1971). Standarderrors are in parentheses.
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 35
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
Malaria kills about 800,000 people per year
• Most are African children
• Repeated bouts of malaria may also reduce overall child health
• Countries with malaria are substantially poorer than other countries,but it is not clear whether malaria is the cause or the effect
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 36
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
Organized efforts to eradicate malaria are a natural experiment
• First the US (1920s) and then many Latin American countries(1950s) launched major (and successful) eradication campaigns
• Compare trends in adult income by birth cohort in regions which did,did not see major reductions in malaria because of campaigns
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 37
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 38
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
Colombia’s malaria eradication campaign began in in the late 1950s. . .
. . . and led to a huge decline in malaria morbidity
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 39
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
Colombia’s malaria eradication campaign began in in the late 1950s. . .
. . . and led to a huge decline in malaria morbidity
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 39
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Malaria Eradication as a Natural Experiment
Areas with highest pre-program prevalence saw largest declines in malaria
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 40
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Estimation Strategy
In this framework, treatment is a continuous variable
• Areas with higher pre-intervention malaria prevalence were, inessence “treated” more intensely by the eradication program
• Malaria-free areas should not benefit from eradication
• They can be used (implicitly) to measure the time trend
Exposure (during childhood) also depends on one’s year of birth
• Colombians born after 1957 were fully exposed to program
I Did not suffer from chronic malaria in their early childhood
I Did not miss school because of malaria
• Colombians born before 1940 were adults by the time theeradication campaign began, serve as the comparison group
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 41
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Estimation Strategy
In this framework, treatment is a continuous variable
• Areas with higher pre-intervention malaria prevalence were, inessence “treated” more intensely by the eradication program
• Malaria-free areas should not benefit from eradication
• They can be used (implicitly) to measure the time trend
Exposure (during childhood) also depends on one’s year of birth
• Colombians born after 1957 were fully exposed to program
I Did not suffer from chronic malaria in their early childhood
I Did not miss school because of malaria
• Colombians born before 1940 were adults by the time theeradication campaign began, serve as the comparison group
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 41
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Estimation Strategy
Regression specification:
Yj,post − Yj,pre = α + βMj,pre + δXj,pre + εj
where
• Yj,t is an outcome of interest (eg literacy)
• Mj,pre is pre-eradication malaria prevalence
• Xj,pre is a vector of region-level controls
• εj is the noise term
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 42
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The Impact of Childhood Exposure to Malaria
Regression specification:
Yj,post − Yj,pre = α + βMj,pre + δXj,pre + εj
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 43
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Defending the Common Trends Assumption
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The Common Trends Assumption
Diff-in-diff does not identify the treatment effect if treatment andcomparison groups were on different trajectories prior to the program
• This is the common trends assumption
Remember the assumptions underlying diff-in-diff estimation:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
These assumptions guarantee that the common trends assumption issatisfied, but they cannot be tested directly — we have to trust!
• As with any identification strategy, it is important to think carefullyabout whether it checks out both intuitively and econometrically
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 45
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The Common Trends Assumption
Diff-in-diff does not identify the treatment effect if treatment andcomparison groups were on different trajectories prior to the program
• This is the common trends assumption
Remember the assumptions underlying diff-in-diff estimation:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
These assumptions guarantee that the common trends assumption issatisfied, but they cannot be tested directly — we have to trust!
• As with any identification strategy, it is important to think carefullyabout whether it checks out both intuitively and econometrically
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 45
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The Common Trends Assumption
Diff-in-diff does not identify the treatment effect if treatment andcomparison groups were on different trajectories prior to the program
• This is the common trends assumption
Remember the assumptions underlying diff-in-diff estimation:
• Selection bias relates to fixed characteristics of individuals (γi )
• Time trend (λt) same for treatment and control groups
These assumptions guarantee that the common trends assumption issatisfied, but they cannot be tested directly — we have to trust!
• As with any identification strategy, it is important to think carefullyabout whether it checks out both intuitively and econometrically
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 45
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The Common Trends Assumption
3040
5060
70P
erce
nt C
ompl
etin
g C
olle
ge
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison ⇒
3040
5060
70P
erce
nt C
ompl
etin
g C
olle
ge
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison (Normalized)
Sometimes, the common trends assumption is clearly OK
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 46
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The Common Trends Assumption
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
0In
com
e
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison ⇒
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
0In
com
e
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison (Normalized)
Other times, the common trends assumption is fairly clearly violated
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 47
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The Common Trends Assumption
Or is it? DD is robust to transformations of the outcome variable0
1000
020
000
3000
040
000
Inco
me
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison ⇒
010
000
2000
030
000
4000
0In
com
e
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison (Normalized)
89
1011
Log
Inco
me
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison ⇒
89
1011
Log
Inco
me
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Year
Treatment Comparison (Normalized)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 48
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Defending the Common Trends Assumption
Three approaches:
1. A compelling graph
2. A falsification test or, analogously, a direct test in panel data
3. Controlling for time trends directly
I Drawback: identification comes from functional form assumption
None of these approaches are possible with two periods of data
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 49
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Defending the Common Trends Assumption
Three approaches:
1. A compelling graph
2. A falsification test or, analogously, a direct test in panel data
3. Controlling for time trends directly
I Drawback: identification comes from functional form assumption
None of these approaches are possible with two periods of data
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 49
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Approach #1: DD Porn
Source: Naritomi (2015)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 50
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Approach #2: A Falsification Test
Dependent Variable: Years of Education
OLS OLS OLS
Obs. (1) (2) (3)
Panel A: Entire Sample
Intensityj ∗ Youngeri 78,488 0.009 0.018 0.008
(0.026) (0.027) (0.030)
Panel B: Sample of Wage Earners
Intensityj ∗ Youngeri 30,255 0.012 0.024 0.079
(0.048) (0.048) (0.056)
Controls Included:
YOB∗enrollment rate in 1971 No Yes Yes
YOB∗other INPRES programs No No Yes
Sample includes individuals aged 12 to 24 in 1974. All Specifications include regionof birth dummies, year of birth dummies, and interactions between the year of birthdummis and the number of children in the region of birth (in 1971). Standard errors arein parentheses.
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 51
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Approach #2: A Falsification Test
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 52
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Diff-in-Diff in a Panel Data Framework
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Variation in Treatment Timing
Example: counties introduced food stamps at different times
Source: Almond, Hoynes, and Schanzenbach (AER, 2016)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 54
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Variation in Treatment Timing
Example: states adopted Medicaid at different times
Source: Boudreaux, Golberstein, and McAlpine (Journal of Health Economics, 2016)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 55
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Variation in Treatment Timing
Example: counties opened community health centers at different times
Source: Bailey and Goodman-Bacon (AER, 2015)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 56
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Fixed Effects Estimates of βDD
Yit = αi + γt + βDDDit + εti
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 57
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Fixed Effects Estimates of βDD
Yit = αi + γt + βDDDit + εti
unit fixed effects time fixed effects treatment dummy
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 58
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Fixed Effects Estimates of βDD
Yit = αi + γt + βDDDit + εti
unit fixed effects time fixed effects treatment dummy
What exactly is βDD?
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 59
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Fixed Effects Estimates of βDD
Frisch-Waugh (1933):
Two-way fixed effects regression is equivalent to univariate regression:
Yit = Dit + ζti
where
Yit = Yit − Yi −(Yt − ¯Y
)and
Dit = Dit − Di −(Dt − ¯D
)
Which is cool, but doesn’t really tell us what the estimand is
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 60
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Fixed Effects Estimates of βDD
Frisch-Waugh (1933):
Two-way fixed effects regression is equivalent to univariate regression:
Yit = Dit + ζti
where
Yit = Yit − Yi −(Yt − ¯Y
)and
Dit = Dit − Di −(Dt − ¯D
)
Which is cool, but doesn’t really tell us what the estimand is
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 60
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Decomposition into Timing Groups
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Goodman-Bacon (2019): panel with variation in treatment timing can bedecomposed into timing groups reflecting observed onset of treatment
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 61
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Decomposition into Timing Groups
t=1 t=2 t=3
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Example: with three timing groups (one of which is never treated),we can construct three timing windows (pre, middle, post or t = 1, 2, 3)
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 62
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Decomposition into Standard 2× 2 DDs
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group A vs. Group C
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group B vs. Group C
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group A vs. Group B
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group B vs. Group A
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 63
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Decomposition into Standard 2× 2 DDs
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group A vs. Group C
We know the DD estimate of the treatment effect for each timing group:
βDDAC =
(Y POSTA − Y POST
C
)−(Y PREA − Y PRE
C
)=(Y t=2,3A − Y t=2,3
C
)−(Y t=1A − Yy
t=1C
)UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 64
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Decomposition into Standard 2× 2 DDs
pre post
y
time
Early Timing Group (A)
Late Timing Group (B)
Never-Treated Group (C)
Group B vs. Group A
We know the DD estimate of the treatment effect for each timing group:
βDDBA =
(Y POSTB − Y POST
A
)−(Y PREB − Y PRE
A
)=(Y t=3B − Y t=3
A
)−(Y t=2B − Yy
t=2A
)UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 65
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DD Decomposition Theorem (aka D3 Theorem)
Theorem
Consider a data set comprising K timing groups ordered by the time atwhich they first receive treatment and a maximum of one never-treatedgroup, U. The OLS estimate from a two-way fixed effects regression is:
βDD =∑k 6=U
skU βDDkU +
∑k 6=U
∑j>k
[skj β
DDkj + sjk β
DDjk
]
In other words, the DD estimate from a two-way fixed effects regressionis a weighted average of the (well-understood) 2× 2 DD estimates
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 66
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DD Decomposition Theorem (aka D3 Theorem)
Weights depend on sample size, variance of treatment w/in each DD:
skU =
[(nk + nU)2
V D
]nkU (1− nkU) Dk(1− Dk)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDkU
skj =
[((nk + nj)
(1− Dj
))2
V D
]nkj(1− nkj)
(Dk − Dj
1− Dj
)(1− Dk
1− Dj
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDkj
sjk =
[((nk + nj) Dk
)2
V D
]nkj(1− nkj)
Dj
Dk
(Dk − Dj
Dk
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDjk
where nk is. . . , nkj is . . . , and Dk is . . .UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 67
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DD Decomposition Theorem (aka D3 Theorem)
Weights depend on sample size, variance of treatment w/in each DD:
skU =
[(nk + nU)2
V D
]nkU (1− nkU) Dk(1− Dk)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDkU
skj =
[((nk + nj)
(1− Dj
))2
V D
]nkj(1− nkj)
(Dk − Dj
1− Dj
)(1− Dk
1− Dj
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDkj
sjk =
[((nk + nj) Dk
)2
V D
]nkj(1− nkj)
Dj
Dk
(Dk − Dj
Dk
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
VarDjk
where nk is. . . , nkj is . . . , and Dk is . . .UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 68
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Implications of the D3 Theorem
1. When treatment effects are homogeneous, βDD is the ATE
2. When treatment effects are heterogeneous across units (not time),βDD is a variance-weighted treatment effect that is not the ATE
⇒ Weights on timing groups are sums of skU , skj terms
3. When treatment effects change over time, βDD is biased
⇒ Changes in treatment effect bias DD coefficient
⇒ Event study, stacked DD more appropriate
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 69
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Implications of the D3 Theorem
DD in a potential outcomes framework assuming common trends:
Yit =
{Y0,it if Dit = 0
Y0,it + δit if Dit = 1
βDDkU and βDD
kj (where k < j) are familiar, but βDDjk is different:
βDDjk = Y POST
0,j + δPOSTj −
(Y POST
0,k + δPOSTk
)−[Y PRE
0,j −(Y PRE
0,k + δPREk
)]= δPOST
j +[(
Y POST0,j − Y POST
0,k
)−(Y PRE
0,j − Y PRE0,k
)]︸ ︷︷ ︸
common trends
+(δPREk − δPOST
k
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
∆δk
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 70
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Implications of the D3 Theorem
DD in a potential outcomes framework assuming common trends:
Yit =
{Y0,it if Dit = 0
Y0,it + δit if Dit = 1
βDDkU and βDD
kj (where k < j) are familiar, but βDDjk is different:
βDDjk = Y POST
0,j + δPOSTj −
(Y POST
0,k + δPOSTk
)−[Y PRE
0,j −(Y PRE
0,k + δPREk
)]= δPOST
j +[(
Y POST0,j − Y POST
0,k
)−(Y PRE
0,j − Y PRE0,k
)]︸ ︷︷ ︸
common trends
+(δPREk − δPOST
k
)︸ ︷︷ ︸
∆δk
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 70
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Takeaways
1. Stack the 2× 2 DDs to asses common trends (visually)
⇒ Trends should look similar before and after treatment
⇒ Treatment effect should be a level shift, no a trend break
⇒ How much weight is placed on problematic timing groups?
2. Plot the relationship between the 2× 2 DD estimates, weights
⇒ No heterogeneity? No problems!
⇒ Heterogeneity across units is an object of interest
UMD Economics 626: Applied Microeconomics Lecture 3: Difference-in-Differences, Slide 71