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eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo Michael Steen EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Atlas Air Worldwide Inc.

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Page 1: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

eCommerce -A paradigm

shift forAir Cargo

Michael SteenEVP & Chief Commercial Officer

Atlas Air Worldwide Inc.

Page 2: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

Privileged and Confidential 2

Structure

Headquarters:Purchase, NYEmployees:2,870

2017 Operating Rev:$2.16 BillionNASDAQ Listed:AAWW

Atlas Air Worldwide at a Glance

2017 Global Operating Network

252,802 Total Block Hours 48,983 Flights

422 Airports in 103 Countries790 Charters Completed80+ Unique Customers

Valued CustomersShippers Forwarders/

BrokersAirlines Integrators

Fleet (105 aircraft)

10 (747-8F)

28 (747-400F)

4 (747-LCF)

35 (767-200/300F)

1 (757-200F)

6 (737-400F)

4 (767-200/300ER)

1 (737-800)

4 (747-400)PassengerCargo

12 (777-200LRF)

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Privileged and Confidential 3

Services

Our Value Proposition – Integrated Solutions

A History of Delivering Value to Our Customers

ACMI Charter Dry LeasingCMI

• Crew & technical expertise

• Economy of scale

• Flexible network solutions

• Commercial collaboration

• Ad-hoc & program charters

• Custom cargo & PAX service

• Leader in South American freight

• Leader in US DOD passenger & cargo service

• Asset financing & management

• Dry leasing, sales & sale / leaseback

• Fleet planning

• Conversion management

• Network analysis & design

• Pilot training

• Spare parts management

• Transportation visibility solution

• Turnkey solution

• Large fleet - various platforms

• Global footprint -scalable network

• Performance, reliability & expertise

Page 4: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

The Global Air Cargo Market & the impact of eCommerce

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Total$85B

Global Air Freight is a Large and Growing Industry

Sources: Flight Global, U.S. DOT F41, airline reports, and Boeing estimates (2017 data)

Airlines operating freighters generate 90% ofindustry revenues

Express Carrier

41%

Combination Carrier

39%

All Cargo10%

Passenger Belly Only

10%

$33.6B

$32.8B

$8.5B

$8.5B

Page 6: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

Privileged and Confidential 6

Air Cargo is essential to the Global Economy

eCommerce will increase the value

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Privileged and Confidential 7

Megatrends Will Drive Opportunity in Airfreight

Economic Megatrends Increases in urban consumption

by the growing consuming class – Increase by 1.8B by 2025

Global consumption to surpass $30 trillion – increase from $12 trillion today

eCommerce New consumer focused retail

model will drive significant demand growth

Trends will require efficient air networks to serve effectively

Freighters will play a more important role in the future

Globalization Global flows increasing – trade,

finance, people and data Tourism and general travel

increasing, adding jobs Manufacturing moving away from

traditional passenger hubs

Digitization Technological breakthroughs at

an increasing pace Adoption of new technologies Change in buying behaviors.

e-Commerce related airfreight demand growing significantly

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-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

FTK AFTK

Global Airfreight Industry Performance Trends

Sources: IATA, ICAO, Euromonitor, Forrester, eMarketer, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates

Global Airfreight Market International freight tonne kilometers (FTKs) flown up 10.6% in 2017 FTK growth expected to exceed 4.3% in 2018

PMI Index at 55 for 2017 and semi-conductor sales +18% for 2017

Global Express Market The International Express market is showing robust growth 5.8% CAGR since 2011 vs. nominal CAGR for International FTK’s

The Express segment benefiting from the e-Commerce growth

43.4 45.4 45.1 41.1

49.1 49.3 48.8 49.5 51.5 52.8 54.9 59.9 62.5

25

35

45

55

65

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F

6%12%

19%25%

31%

??%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$727 $940$1,191

$1,450$1,735

$2,076$2,450

$2,864

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

Global e-Commerce Market

Total Global Airfreight Tonnage Growing from Record Levels

Freight Tonnes(Millions)

2.5% 6.4% 4.6% (0.7)% (8.9)% 19.5)% 0.4% (1.0)% 1.4% 4.0% 1.5% 3.8% 10.6% 4.3%

International Express Market – DHL, FedEx and UPSChange in Demand (Base year 2011 - 100%)

Global e-Commerce Estimates ($ Billion)

Overall e-Commerce market penetration is still low

FTK and AFTK Growth

Supply vs. Demand

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Privileged and Confidential 9

Market Growth 2017

Page 10: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

Privileged and Confidential 10

The Last Mile

Evolution of Distribution Models

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B2C B2B

Number of Customers Millions Thousands

Geographical Density Low High

Shipment Unit Package Pallet

Value/Weight Ratio High Low

Delivery Frequency On-demand Scheduled

Delivery Speed ASAP Predictable

Shipper-Consignee Relationship Transactional Contractual

Payment Credit card Purchase order

B2C vs. B2B

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7.4%

8.7%

10.1%

11.6%

13.1%

14.6%

15.5%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021*

e-Commerce only accounts for ~10% of global retail sales

US e-Commerce spend $385B in 2016 – forecasted to grow to $600B by 2020

USA: 237M internet users –73% mobile penetration – 9% e-Commerce penetration

China: 700M internet users –50% mobile penetration –10% e-Commerce penetration

India: 300M internet users –25% mobile penetration – 2% e-Commerce penetration

e-Commerce – A real Paradigm Shift

Source: Forrester, Statista, eMarketer

e-Commerce Penetration(as percentage of global retail sales)

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Source: Worldbank.org / Brookings Institution / OECD.org

Asia Express & e-Commerce has Great Potential

~2billion

~500million

People within4 Hour Flight

2.5 - 3%6.2% AverageGDP Growth

(2016-2020)

Stable w/limitedgrowth

9% Middle ClassGrowth

Verylarge fleet

Limited fleet

RegionalFreightersDeployed

Page 14: eCommerce - A paradigm shift for Air Cargo€¦ · eCommerce New consumer focused retail model will drive . significant demand growth Trends will require efficient . air networks

Global Macro OutlookGrowth of global “consuming class” will fuel the economy

Airfreight OutlookContinued growth driven by e-Commerce and Express

Supply OutlookDemand is expected to outpace Supply

eCommerce will change the Supply ChainContinued globalization driven by consumer demand

Positive DisruptionParticipate with expertize, digitization and continued investment

Summary