ecmwf training course reading, 22 march 2006 operational and research activities at ecmwf renate...

ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006

Operational and Research Activities

at ECMWF

Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts


ECMWF’s…

…background and structure

…research activities Integrated Forecast System (IFS)

…operational activities production, delivery, archiving


Background• Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states:

• Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-

range weather forecasts with benefits to the European economy Protection and safety of population Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training Development of European industry in the field of data-processing

• Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding

those normally practicable at national level

Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom

Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden


Today ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states

8 co-operating states

Iceland

CzechRepublic

Slovenia

Romania

Serbia andMontenegro

Hungary

Croatia

Estonia


New Convention

• Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by Council at its 62nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005

• Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the earliest end of 2006

• The adopted amendments concern mainly:

allowing new Member States to join

enlarging ECMWF’s mission to environmental monitoring

re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights)

widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU)

extending official languages to all official languages in Member States (on a request-and-pay basis)


Objectives

• Development of global models and data assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth’s fluid

envelope and interacting parts of the Earth-system

• Preparation and distribution of medium-range weather forecasts

• Scientific and technical research directed towards improving the quality

of these forecasts

• Collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data

• Make available research results and data to Member States

• Provision of supercomputer resources to Member States

• Assistance to WMO programmes

• Advanced NWP training


ECMWF Budget 2006

Germany 21.46%

Denmark1.82%

Belgium2.71%

United Kingdom16.69%

Turkey 1.92%

Sweden 2.59%

Finland 1.41%

Switzerland 3.06%Portugal1.27%

Austria 2.21%

Norway 1.98%

Netherlands 4.43%

Italy12.67%

Ireland1.07%

Greece1.45%

France 15.74%

Spain 7.30%

Luxembourg0.21%

Main Revenue 2006Member States’contributions £27,460,600

Co-operating States’contributions £425,100

Other Revenue £1,454,600

Total £29,340,300

Main Expenditure 2006Staff £12,961,900

Leaving Allowances& Pensions £1,807,500

ComputerExpenditure £11,785,900

Buildings £1,858,000

Supplies £927,000

Total £29,340,300

Percentage contributions for 2006-2008


Organizational structure

COUNCIL18 Member States

DIRECTORDominique Marbouty

(France) (162)

Meteorological Division

Horst Böttger(Germany) (23)

Computer Division

Isabella Weger(Austria) (60)

OperationsWalter Zwieflhofer

(Austria) (87)

ResearchPhilippe Bougeault

(France) (47)

AdministrationGerd Schultes

(Germany) (25)

DataDivision

Adrian Simmons(UK) (14)

Model DivisionMartin Miller

(UK) (15)

Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division

Tim Palmer(UK) (10)

FinanceCommittee7 Members

Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members

Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members

Advisory Committee of Co-operating States

7 Members

Advisory Committee on Data Policy

8-24 Members

Policy AdvisoryCommittee

7-18 Members


Principal Goal• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.


Principal Goal• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.Northern Hemisphere: 500 hPa Geopotential above normal


Complimentary Goals

• In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are:

To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts

To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models

To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition

To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system

To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System


Numerical Weather Prediction• The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical

laws

• Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed

• Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary

• Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation

• Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important


Strategy• Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data

• Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility

• Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting

• Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products

• Maintenance and extension of the Centre’s scientific and technical collaborations


Research Department

DataDivision

Adrian Simmons(UK) (33)

Model DivisionMartin Miller

(UK) (27)

Probabilistic Forecasting& Diagnostics Division

Tim Palmer(UK) (18)

Data AssimilationErik Andersson(Sweden) (14)

Satellite DataJean-Noel Thepaut

(France) (16)

Re-Analysis ProjectSakari Uppala(Finland) (3)

Predictability & Diagnostics

Tim Palmer(UK) (9)

Seasonal ForecastDavid Anderson

(UK) (9)Numerical Aspects

Mariano Hortal(Spain) (9)

Ocean WavesPeter Janssen

(Netherlands) (4)

Physical AspectsAnton Beljaars

(Netherlands) (14)


ECMWF’s operational analysis and forecasting system

The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the

Integrated Forecast System or IFS• Numerical scheme: TL799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-

80 km) semi-Lagrangian formulation

• Time step: 12 minutes

• Prognostic variables: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone

• Grid: Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points


Deterministic model grid (T799)


EPS model grid (T399)


The wave model

• Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4)

2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean)

numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions

coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient

extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves

wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model

Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models15 – 24 May 2006


Physical aspects, included in IFS• Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) • Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff)• Stratiform and convective precipitation• Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone• Solar angle• Diffusion • Ground & sea roughness • Ground and sea-surface temperature • Ground humidity• Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt • Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave)• Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere)• Sub-grid-scale orographic drag • Gravity waves and blocking effects • Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux

Parameterization of Diabatic Processes

2-12 May 2006


Numbers of observational items assimilated over a 24 hour period on 13 February 2006

Starting a forecast: The initial conditions


Data Assimilation

• Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’ Observations have errors Many observations not directly of model variables

• The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)

start with previous analysis

use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time

correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations

• The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions

accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast

EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty

see next 8 days


What is an ensemble forecast?

Forecast time

Tem

pera

ture

Complete description of weather prediction in terms of aProbability Density Function (PDF)

Initial condition Forecast


Flow dependence of forecast errors

If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread)

aa

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day

UK

Control Analysis Ensemble

ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1994 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day

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Control Analysis Ensemble

ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1995 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0

26th June 1995 26th June 1994


Why Probabilities?

• Open air restaurant scenario: open additional tables: £20 extra cost, £100 extra income (if T>24ºC) weather forecast: 30% probability for T>24ºC what would you do?

• Test the system for 100 days: 30 x T>24ºC -> 30 x (100 – 20) = 2400 70 x T<24ºC -> 70 x ( 0 – 20) = -1400 +1000

• Employing extra waiter (spending £20) is beneficial when probability for T>24 ºC is greater 20%• The higher/lower the cost loss ratio, the higher/lower probabilities are needed in order to benefit from action on forecast


ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction Systems

• Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions singular vector approach to sample perturbations

• Model uncertainties are represented by “stochastic physics”

• Medium-range EPS (10-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) control forecast at TL399L62 (0.45°, ~50km) from analysis

50 perturbed forecasts at TL399L62 from perturbed analysis

• Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE) monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month

Predictability, Diagnostics and Seasonal Forecasting

24 – 28 April 2

006


Operations Department

Computer OperationsSylvia Baylis

(UK) (31)

Network and Computer Security

Matteo Dell’Acqua(France) (11)

Systems SoftwareNeil Storer

(UK) (8)

Meteorological DivisionHorst Böttger

(Germany) (36)

Meteorological ApplicationsAlfred Hofstadler

(Austria) (5)

Data & ServicesBaudouin Raoult

(France) (6)

Meteorological OperationsDavid Richardson

(UK) (11)

GraphicsJens Daabeck(Denmark) (5)User Support

Umberto Modigliani(Italy) (5)

Computer DivisionIsabella Weger(Austria) (63)

Servers & DesktopsRichard Fisker(Denmark) (8)


Current Computer Configuration


User support for special projects

http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computer_access_registration/Special_Projects.html


ECMWF model suites• Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model TL799 91 levels; range=10 days

• Medium-range ensemble prediction system TL399 60 levels; range=10 days

control + 50 perturbed members

• Monthly forecast system TL159 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)

51-member ensemble

• Seasonal forecast system TL95 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels

(ocean) 40-member ensemble


EUROSIP: seasonal multi-model ensemble

• Three models running at ECMWF: ECMWF – System 2

Met Office – HADCM3 model, Met Office ocean analyses

Météo-France – Arpege/Climat, Mercator ocean analyses

Spain + Germany may join

• Unified system All data in ECMWF operational archive

Common operational schedule

(products released at 12UTC on the 15th of each month)

• Common products will be available soon ECMWF release of web products expected this autumn

• EUROSIP appears to be better than the individual

systems


Data Dissemination


MARS


ECMWF Data ServerA new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF.

• DEMETER• ERA-40• ERA-15• ENACT• ENSEMBLES / GEMS- Monthly and daily data- Select area- GRIB or NetCDF- Plotting facility


Meteorological Operations

• Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual

events,…)

• Forecast verification

• Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,

…)

• Data and satellite monitoring

• User guides / meetings


WMO verification scores

Day 6

Day 2

500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RMSE (m)

VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200510

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E CMWF 1 2 U T C T + 4 8

F RANC E 1 2 U T C T + 4 8

DWD 1 2 U T C T + 4 8

UK 1 2 U T C T + 4 8

NC E P 0 0 U T C T + 4 8

J AP AN 1 2 U T C T + 4 8

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200510

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E CMWF 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4

F RA NC E 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4

DWD 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4

U K 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4

N C E P 0 0 U T C T + 1 4 4

J A P A N 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4


Forecast Products: 1979

1 forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week


Forecast Products: 2006wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products

www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts


Products for end users


More Information…

ecmwf training course reading, 22 march 2006 operational and research activities at ecmwf renate...

Documents

ecmwf training course

ecmwf convention

ecmwf budget

new member states

member states assistance

member states contributions27

basis slide

mediumrange weather