ebook evolution (revolution): where do campus stores fit in? camex college bookstore presentation

© 2011, Bowker

The eBook R/Evolution: Where Do Campus Stores Fit In?

Presenter: Kelly Gallagher, RR Bowker

© 2011, Bowker

the times they are a chang’n

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rate of…

motivation for…

direction of…

CHANGE…in strategy

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Who’s problems are we looking

to solve?

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Publisher?

Used Books Open-Source

e-Book Transition

COGS

Piracy

Rentals

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Administration?

EnrollmentFaculty

Facilities

Funding

Tuition

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Bookstore?

e-tail Off-Campus

e-BooksFaculty

Administration

Rentals

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Student?

Convenience Relevance

Requirements

Expertise

Cost

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So looking ahead…

…how do we set strategies in times of uncertainty?

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Know the market trends…

Know the end user…

Know your value proposition!

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Know the market trends…

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Sell-through

Tracks new and used Point-of-

Sale Data from 4-yr, 2-yr, and For-

Profit schools

Sample represents ~63% (FTE) of the US

Higher Ed market

Data collected from ~2,400

bookstores, & online e-tailers

Adoption

Course Book in Use data

collected from college

registrars office

Demand

Pre-order wholesaler data from over 4200

stores and e-tailers

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Overview of Textbook Market for AY 2010

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Pop Quiz!!

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True or False?1. For the first time on

record, the textbook industry shrank ($$$) last year?

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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY2010 $-

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

$9,000.0

$5,733.2 $6,017.1 $6,272.2 $6,346.3 $7,318.0 $7,703.2

Total Dollar Market Size (in millions)

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The College Textbook market continues to grow in spite of dire predictions

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Multiple Choice2. The average price of a new

textbook in AY2010 was a) $74b) $84c) $94d) $104

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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY2010 $50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$83.73 $87.16

$92.03 $96.70

$101.63

$104.14

$63.52 $66.58

$70.24

$76.05 $80.24

$82.83

New average price Used average price

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Students are Right: Textbook Prices Rising

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Multiple Choice3. The used textbook market is

a) >60%b) >50%c) >40%d) >30%of the total (units) market?

© 2011, Bowker

AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

65.2% 66.5% 66.1% 64.3% 65.5% 67.8%

34.8% 33.5% 33.9% 35.7% 34.5% 32.2%

New Units Used Units

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Two Thirds of Units Sold are New Units

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AY2005 AY2006 AY2007 AY2008 AY2009 AY20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

70.4% 71.0% 71.7% 69.5% 70.0% 72.5%

29.6% 29.0% 28.3% 30.5% 30.0%27.5%

New Sales Used Sales

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Over 70% of Textbook Dollars Sold are New Units

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AY 2010

ESL 9.84%

Vo-Tech 9.89%

Library Information Science 11.70%

Nursing 12.89%

Food Science 14.28%

Foreign Languages and Literature 16.38%

Medical Sciences 17.21%

Legal Studies 18.98%

Accounting 19.23%

Computer Training & Certification 19.83%

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Career Texts are Keepers - Top 10 Disciplines with Lowest Used Book Rates

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AY 2010

Museum Studies 43.85%

Theater 40.53%

Dance 40.10%

Geography 39.53%

History 38.36%

Philosophy 37.43%

Anthropology 37.21%

Art 36.49%

Paralegal Studies 35.96%

Sociology 35.34%

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Liberal Use of Used Texts -Top 10 Disciplines with Highest Used Book Rates

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True or False?4. Math, English, and Science

comprise the top 3 selling ($$$) disciplines?

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AY 2010

Mathematics $ 839.8

English $ 704.2

Biological Sciences $ 490.8

Psychology $481.1

Education $ 296.7

Accounting $ 268.4

History $ 261.3 Foreign Languages and Literature $ 250.2

Chemistry $ 243.2

Management $ 206.6

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‘The Basics’ Top 10 Disciplines in Total Dollar Sales (millions)

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AY 2009 to AY 2010

Computers & Information Systems 36.8%

Food Science 28.0%

Parks & Recreation 25.9%

Vo-Tech 24.8%

Computer Training & Certification 23.8%

Business Education/Vo-Tech 19.5%

Social Work 16.5%

Health & Health Related Professions 15.0%

Criminal Justice 14.1%

Medical Sciences 13.8%

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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – Top 10 Growing Disciplines

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AY 2009 to AY 2010

Theater -1.47%

Management Information Systems -3.06%

Family & Consumer Studies -3.34%

Finance -4.47%

Marketing -5.03%

Classics -5.04%

Astronomy -5.22%

Linguistics -5.43%

Dance -8.74%

Architecture -13.46%

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Liberal Arts Not Supported -Top 10 Declining Disciplines

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Multiple Choice5. Psychology and ________

a) Spanishb) Chemistryc) Biologyd) None of the aboveare the top selling ($$$) courses?

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AY 2010

Psychology: Introductory $106.7

Spanish: Language: Elementary $ 76.8

Chemistry: Introductory $ 68.0

MIS: Applications $ 66.5

English: Composition: Rhetoric $ 62.7English: Composition: Introductory $ 59.7

Human Anatomy and Physiology $ 54.3

Biological Sciences: Introductory $ 51.6 Mathematics: Probability and Statistics $ 44.1

Biological Sciences: Introductory $ 43.7

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101 - Psych & Spanish Top 10 Courses in Total Dollar Sales (millions)

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AY 2010The Art of Public Speaking (PK w/Connect Lucas), Lucas, McGraw-Hill, Inc.

$ 11.4

Biology (PK w/Mastering Biology), Campbell, Pearson Higher Education

$ 10.1

Human Anatomy and Physiology, Marieb, Pearson Higher Education

$ 6.2

Uderstanding Business, Nickels, McGraw-Hill, Inc.

$ 5.2

Biology: Concepts and Connections, Campbell/Reece, Pearson Higher Education

$ 5.1

Publication Manual of the American Psychological Assoc.

$ 4.8

Psychology, Myers, Macmillan $ 4.3

Exploring Psychology (P), Myers, Macmillan

$ 4.1

Thinking Mathematically (PK) Blitze, Pearson Higher Education

$ 3.7

Prentice Hall Guide for College Writers, Reid, Pearson Higher Education

$ 3.5 36

Speech & Biology TextsTop 10 Textbooks (ISBN’s) in Total Dollar Sales (millions)

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Title Ed (C)Total Sales

Share of Franchise

New Avg Price

Used Avg Price Used Share

Exploring Psychology (P) 7 2007 $1,963 24.3% $101.19 $69.32 83.4%

Psychology 9 2008 $1,587 19.6% $133.19 $97.34 71.6%Exploring Psychology in Modules 7 2007 $814 10.1% $99.15 $70.80 74.4%

Psychology in Everyday Life 9 2008 $551 6.8% $75.77 $54.50 54.0%

Exploring Psychology 8 2009 $430 5.3% $100.77 $76.47 17.8%Psychology (PK w/Study Guide, PsychSim 5. 0 CD-ROM and Booklet) 9 2009 $271 3.4% $148.12 $111.81 1.6.0%

Psychology in Modules 9 2009 $254 3.2% $131.50 $97.81 12.7%Exploring Psychology in Modules 7E (Paper) and Study Guide 7 2007 $194 2.4% $119.49 $81.19 57.6%

Psychology 8 2006 $162 2.0% $129.81 $78.57 95.7%

Psychology in Everyday Life 9 2009 $153 1.9% $46.75 $35.13 0.5%

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A Tale of Two Revenues – The “Myers” Intro to Psych Franchise

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Know the end-user

© 2011, Bowker 39

Student Attitudes Study• The semi-annual survey focuses on college student perceptions related to

educational content in the higher education market. • Key areas of focus were to determine:

– Rate of change and preference for digital texts– Value of content and learning platforms– Illicit behaviors with content

• It is powered by Bowker's PubTrack Consumer Panel, the publishing industry's exclusive resource for understanding buying behavior.

• The online survey polled 1505 college students drawn from a nationally representative panel.

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Multiple Choice6. By the end of 2010 e-Books

represented over ___%a) 5%b) 10%c) 20%d) 25%of the total book market.

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Overall eBook Trends

Apr_09

May_0

9

Jun_09

July_09

Aug_09

Sept_0

9

Oct_09

Nov_09

Dec _0

9

Jan_1

0

Feb_1

0

Mar_10

Apr_10

May_1

0

Jun_10

Jul_10

Aug_10

Sept_1

0

Oct_10

Nov_10

Dec_10

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

6.3%

5.0%

6.1%6.9%

4.8%

5.9%6.6%

6.0%

4.9%

6.9%6.4%

8.3%8.7%

7.7% 7.9%

9.5% 9.6%

10.7%11.1%

12.7%

12.8%

1.9%

2.8% 2.8%2.0%

2.4% 2.6%2.0%

2.8%2.0%

2.8%

3.9%3.5% 3.6%

3.2%

4.1% 4.3% 4.6%5.2% 4.9%

7.0%

10.9%

% read ebooks (daily/weekly) est. % ebooks purchased

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Do readers really prefer digital?

• Trade Publishing – After reading ‘e’–17% say that they prefer print–And 17% say that they were not

satisfied with the digital display–66% report they are generally satisfied

with digital books

42

© 2011, Bowker

Do readers really prefer print?

• Other publishing segments have asked the same question…

• Newspaperso 61% of people now read news everyday on the Internet

vs. 50% who read newspapers (Pew Project)

• Magazineso 3 years ago only 1.5% of subscribers selected digital

replica consumer magazineso Now 38% of iPad owners are reading digital

magazines (Changewave Research)

43

© 2011, Bowker 44

What About E-Textbooks,

56%27%

7%7% 3%

E-Text ~7% MarketOverall Digital Content ~10 – 12%

Print TextbooksBundles & PacksCustomsE-ContentOther

© 2011, Bowker

AY 2010

Management

Psychology

Business

English

M.I.S.

Marketing

Mathematics

Education

Accounting

Economics

45

Wide Aray of ‘e’Top 10 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates

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Multiple Choice7. When given a choice ___%

a) 55%b) 65%c) 75%d) 85%of students would choose print over text.

© 2011, Bowker 47

Key Finding-Print vs. e-Textbook

• 75% of students preferred traditional printed textbooks over digital replica e-textbooks.– Like the look and feel

of print– Potential for

permanence of ownership

– Opportunity for resale

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Multiple Choice9. Trade ‘e’ sales are expected to hit

25% by 2013. Most predict Higher Ed will reach that number ina) 2014b) 2015c) 2016d) 2017

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Most new devices lack the computing power and functionality required by students.

Most students are unlikely to purchase and carry multiple devices.

DRM Tech-savvy does not = instant conversion Digital Fatigue

Result: eTextbook and eResources sales are projected to be 25% of Higher Education Sales in 2016

Higher Education Barriers to Rapid Digital Growth

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Compete on the value propositions you know you can win on… & choose no more the two!

5 Core Retail Value Propositions1. Price2. Service3. Convenience4. Selection5. Relationship or Experience

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Student & Bookstore Affinity – what values are you already winning on?

Lowest

Price

Order Q

uickly / E

asily

Can get books b

efore classe

s

All the te

xtbooks I

need

Accurate Book lis

ts

Recommended by cla

ssmates/f

riends/f

amily

Recommended by pro

fessors

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 9.238.25 7.9 7.6 7.41

6.28

2.1

3.8

7.98.2 8.2 8.6

5.66.9

Source B&N College

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Multiple Choice10. My Alma Mater is…

a) The College of New Jerseyb) Yalec) Northern Arizona U.d) University of Houston

© 2011, Bowker

Kelly GallagherVP Publishing [email protected]

60

Thanks!

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pubtrackonline.com/

ebook evolution (revolution): where do campus stores fit in? camex college bookstore presentation

Education

total dollar sales

top 10 disciplines

end

millions

false

readers

textbooks