Eastern Great Basin May, June, July/August

Monthly/Seasonal Outlook

Shelby LawEGBCC Predictive Services

Meteorologist

Contents

• Current Fire Danger• May Weather/Fire Potential Forecast• June Weather/Fire Potential Forecast• July/August Fire Potential Forecast

Current Fire Danger

Fuel Moisture

Fuel Loading

Recent Weather Trends

1/01/2014 - 4/30/2014

Weather Trends

Temperature Anomalies % of Normal Precipitation

Snowpack

2013 2014

Drought Monitor

2013 2014

Energy Release Component

Southwest ID Western Wyoming

Northwest UT Southwest UT

Fuel Moisture - Sagebrush

Southwest Idaho

Northwest Utah

Southeast Idaho

Southeast Utah

Fuel Moisture – 1000-hr

WesternIdaho Mtns

SouthernUtah Mtns

Fuel Loading – Grasses

• The very dry spring across central and southern Utah has resulted in a light annual grass crop.

• Carryover grasses from 2013 are still standing in many places and will contribute to this years fuel loading.

• Elsewhere across Idaho and northern Utah the annual grass crop will likely be near normal.

Observed Fire Occurrence / Fire Behavior

• YTD Fire Occurrence has been below normal due to the recent cool and wet weather.

• Moderate fire behavior has been observed on dry, windy days.

May Outlook

Weather• A powerful spring storm will track through the

Great Basin during the first week of the month brining cool, wet conditions to the area.

• This cool, wet trend will likely continue across Idaho and western Wyoming through the month while Utah will begin to see warmer, drier weather return to the state.

Fuels• Annual cheatgrass will likely be cured by the end

of the month across southern Utah and be available to burn at the beginning of June.

• Sagebrush live fuel moisture will likely continue on a near normal green up cycle and not reach critical low levels until June.

May Fire Potential Outlook

Eastern Great Basin National

NORMAL

Fire activity will be light through mostof the month but will pick up toward the end across southern Utah.

June Outlook

Weather• As El Nino threatens to strengthen

this summer, June will likely be on the cooler side with near normal precipitation across the area.

• An extended hot, dry and windy period is not expected during June; however, occasional wind events will likely create a short term spike in fire potential.

• By the end of the month temperatures will likely be increasing leading to an increase in fire potetnial.

Fuels• Annual grass should be cured across

lower elevations area wide by mid to late June.

• Sagebrush across the lower elevations region wide will be on a downward trend and approach normal, low levels.

• Dry, heavy fuels across southern Utah will contribute to fire control problems.

June Fire Potential Outlook

Eastern Great Basin National

NORMAL

• June is normally a busy month for fires across Utah and southern Idaho. This is expected to be the case this year. • If the cool signal doesn’t fully materialize, southern Utah and southwest Idaho may see above normal fire activity in June due to dry fuels.

July/August Outlook

Weather• A delayed start to the typical

‘monsoon’ may occur this year, allowing warm and dry weather to spread across Utah during July.

• The August weather pattern is quite uncertain at this time as it hinges on the transition to an El Nino. There is a chance this could bring cooler weather to Idaho and normal precipitation, but the confidence is very low in this time frame.

Fuels• Most fuels will be cured and available

to burn region wide. • The exception to this is over Western

Wyoming and far north and east Idaho. The above normal snowpack and slow melt off will delay the curing of fine fuels and drying of heavy dead fuels in these areas.

July/August Fire Potential Outlook

Eastern Great Basin National

• Fire activity is expected to be normal across most of the area during these peak fire season months. • Fire potential should be below normal over western Wyoming and far east and north Idaho.• Southwest and possibly central Idaho have the potential to be especially busy this summer if the atmosphere stays warm and dry.

The End

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