east capital financials fund management presentation capital... · 2013-08-23 · main events 2011...
TRANSCRIPT
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East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Annual General Meeting,
8 May 2012 in Stockholm
Hanna Loikkanen Head of Advisory team East Capital Private Equity
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Main events 2011
2011 finished on a positive note
• Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the 18.75% stake in Bank Kedr with the deal expected to complete in June 2012
• Initiation of premium listing of Bank of Georgia on the London Stock Exchange that was realized in February 2012
• Platinum Bank acquired Home Credit Finance’s Ukrainian business
• Nadra Bank’s emergence from temporary administration
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Main events Q1 2012
Active Q1 for the fund in contrast to seasonal weakness for the sector
• The Board decided on a one-year extension of the Fund and first distribution to shareholders
• The Fund purchased 166,000 additional shares in Bank of Georgia to compensate for the slight dilution from management share bonus issues, keeping the fund above 10%
• The Fund also purchased 21.3% stake in Morgan & Stout from a minority shareholder increasing its ownership to 54.3%.
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Recent decision by the ECFF Board
Exit and distribution phase initiated
• Cancelation of the undrawn commitments (EUR 8.26m)
• First distribution upon successful completion of Bank Kedr divestment in Q3 2012
• Estimated distribution amount is 35 EUR/share to Consortium Investors and 3,350 EUR/share to Direct Investors.
• Extension of the Fund’s term by one year till January 2014
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Positive year to date changes in NAV
15.7% increase in NAV in Q1 2012 driven by
5.7% increase in NAV in April 2012
• External appraisal of Probusinessbank, up EUR 18m
• Arm’s-length minority stake transaction in Locko Bank, up EUR 5m
• Bank of Georgia share price increase, Fund’s stake up EUR 9m excluding add-on transaction in March
• In April, the value of Bank of Georgia stake increased further by EUR 2.2m
• Asian-Pacific Bank and Platinum Bank valuations were lifted to 1x 2011 book, up EUR 13.2 in total
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East Capital Financials Fund performance
% Inception y-t-d 3m
NAV -34.6 22.3 21.5
RTS FI -1.0% 16.0 -3.5
OTC Price -62.0 40.7 35.7
Latest NAV as of April 30, 2012
Jan 2006 - Apr 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Ja
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6
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6
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-06
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7
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7
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7
Oct
-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ju
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8
Oct
-08
Ja
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9
Ap
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9
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9
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1
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2
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ECFI Net Asset Value OTC prices at Öhmans RTS Financials
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Markets are volatile
P/BV multiples based on trailing book
Source: Bloomberg
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Ju
l-0
8
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
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9
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9
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-09
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v-0
9
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0
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Ma
r-11
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1
Ju
l-11
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-11
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v-1
1
Sberbank Bank Vozrozhdenie Bank of St Petersburg Nomos Bank Average
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Market valuations as of May 1, 2012
Russian, CIS, GEM banks P/BV multiples
Source: VTB Capital, Banks Watch April 2012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
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2011 2012F
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Portfolio valuation (as of April 30, 2012)
Date of initial
investment
Ownership
stake
Purchase
price EURm
Fair Value/
Current Book1
% of the
portfolio Likely exit
Probusinessbank Nov. 2006 19.9% 59.0 1.2 26.0% Strategic sale/IPO
Bank of Georgia Apr. 2006 10.2% 35.2 1.3 16.8% Listed
Asian-Pacific Bank4 Dec. 2006 17.9% 22.6 1.0 14.0% Strategic sale
Locko Bank Sept. 2006 11.1% 16.5 1.1 7.7% Strategic sale
Bank Kedr Nov. 2006 18.8% 10.8 1.3 5.4% Strategic sale
Platinum Bank Feb. 2007 23.7% 21.6 1.0 5.8% Strategic sale
Pivdennyi Bank Jan. 2008 10.0% 54.4 1.0 5.1% Strategic sale/IPO
Morgan & Stout Jul. 2008 54.3% 6.4** n/a 3 4.8% Strategic sale
Akibank Jun. 2007 20.0% 13.6 0.7 3.9% Buyback by the owner
FIA Bank Apr. 2008 20.0% 16.7 0.7 1.9% Strategic sale
Bank Nadra Aug. 2006 0.7% 57.4* n/a 1.1% Strategic sale
EE-DF AG Mar. 2010 25.0% 1.1 n/a 3 0.4% -
Total investments 315.2 93.1%
Cash 19.8 6.9%
Total portfolio 335.0 100%
1 Latest available book value, currency adjusted *38.1m Equity and 19.3m Convertible debt 2 Several purchases and thus various multiples ** 2.4m Equity and 4m Convertible loan 3 Not applicable 4 Asian - Pacific Bank merged with Kolyma Bank and Kamchatprombank. Purchase price and fair value are the sums of banks’ prices and valuations the Fund received by external appraiser
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Performance highlights 2011
Loan growth y-o-y %
Deposit growth y-o-y %
LTD Return on average
equity Net interest margin Cost/Income Ratio
Sberbank* 40.6% 19.3% 97.3% 28.1% 6.9% 46.9%
Nomos Bank 32.0% 22.0% 117.1% 18.2% 5.3% 47.3%
Bank St Petersburg 14.8% 18.2% 92.6% 17.2% 4.8% 36.2%
Bank Vozrozhdenie 19.5% 11.4% 85.7% 9.0% 5.8% 65.9%
Probusinessbank 28.7% 60.5% 62.6% 17.4% 14.7% 73.9%
Bank of Georgia 10.6% 36.4% 95.7% 19.0% 7.7% 49.9%
Asian-Pacific Bank 89.0% 43.4% 85.2% 30.9% 10.7% 50.5%
Locko Bank 6.1% 16.9% 122.9% 15.3% 4.7% 54.7%
Bank Pivdennyi 6.0% 6.1% 88.9% 3.3% 5.3% 62.7%
Akibank** 13.1% -3.3% 86.2% 2.6% 5.0% 70.1%
FIA Bank** 16.0% 15.8% 84.4% 1.9% 4.9% 81.6%
Platinum Bank*** 105.6% 403.0% 82.2% 11.8% n.a. 56.1%
* Sberbank is the biggest bank in Russia with its assets about 30% of the financial system (close to 1 000 operating banks in the country) and is not a peer to our portfolio holdings
**according to RAS that has discrepancies with IFRS
***according to preliminary IFRS accounts
The banks in the table are ranked by the asset size with growth rates and fundamentals calculated in reporting currencies
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ROaE assumptions 2012
Portfolio breakdown at fair value
as of April 30, 2012
20%
43%
10%
9%
7%
5% 1%
5%
ROaE above 20%
ROaE 15-20%
ROaE 10-15%
RoAE under 10%
Cash
Bank Kedr
Nadra debt instrument
M&S and EE-DF
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Price expectations
as of April 30, 2012
Portfolio breakdown at fair value
Timing is crucial
6%
81%
7%
1% 5%
Below 1.3x book
Above 1.3x book
Cash
Nadra debt instrument
M&S and EE-DF
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Are we ready to exit?
* within 6 months of starting an active sales process
as of April 30, 2012
Portfolio breakdown at fair value
Timing is crucial
74%
13%
7%
1% 5%
Ready for sale*
More time needed
Cash
Nadra debt instrument
M&S and EE-DF
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Example of recent strategic sale
Date of investment November 7, 2006
Exit date* December 19, 2011
Cost of investment 10.8 EURm
Exit price 15.6 EURm
Cash on cash return 46.34%
Gross IRR 7.75%
Sberbank share cash on cash return during the same holding period 14.27%
RTS Financials Index during the same holding period (value-weighted index) -16.90%
Note: all the returns are in EUR terms
RUB depreciated by 19.0% against EUR during the holding period
USD depreciated by 2.6% against EUR during the holding period
* The payment will be received in tranches with the final completion by end of June, return estimates are as if we received cash
on the exit date for relative comparison with Sberbank and RTS Financials
Exit from Bank Kedr
Deal facts
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Bank Kedr relative to other investments
Bank Kedr sold for a decent price despite not being one of the stars of the portfolio
Bubble size reflects % of the portfolio
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0%
RO
aE
Asset growth, yoy, %
Bank of Georgia
Akibank
Asian-Pacific Bank
FIA-Bank
Locko Bank
Probusinessbank
Platinum Bank
Pivdennyi Bank
Kedr
2012
2012
2012
2013 2013
2013 2013
2011
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Summary and outlook for 2012
Still tough exit environment
• Improved performance supported by favorable macro backdrop and holdings’ focus on profitability
• Continued emphasis on profitability and growth for the best exit value
• Increased M&A activity but lack of deal funding persists
• Public market still not ready for IPOs
• Focus on exits
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Hong Kong
Kyiv
Moscow
Oslo
Paris
Shanghai
Stockholm
Tallinn
Thank you!