east capital financials fund management presentation capital... · 2013-08-23 · main events 2011...

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East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Annual General Meeting, 8 May 2012 in Stockholm Hanna Loikkanen Head of Advisory team East Capital Private Equity

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Page 1: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Annual General Meeting,

8 May 2012 in Stockholm

Hanna Loikkanen Head of Advisory team East Capital Private Equity

Page 2: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Main events 2011

2011 finished on a positive note

• Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the 18.75% stake in Bank Kedr with the deal expected to complete in June 2012

• Initiation of premium listing of Bank of Georgia on the London Stock Exchange that was realized in February 2012

• Platinum Bank acquired Home Credit Finance’s Ukrainian business

• Nadra Bank’s emergence from temporary administration

Page 3: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Main events Q1 2012

Active Q1 for the fund in contrast to seasonal weakness for the sector

• The Board decided on a one-year extension of the Fund and first distribution to shareholders

• The Fund purchased 166,000 additional shares in Bank of Georgia to compensate for the slight dilution from management share bonus issues, keeping the fund above 10%

• The Fund also purchased 21.3% stake in Morgan & Stout from a minority shareholder increasing its ownership to 54.3%.

Page 4: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Recent decision by the ECFF Board

Exit and distribution phase initiated

• Cancelation of the undrawn commitments (EUR 8.26m)

• First distribution upon successful completion of Bank Kedr divestment in Q3 2012

• Estimated distribution amount is 35 EUR/share to Consortium Investors and 3,350 EUR/share to Direct Investors.

• Extension of the Fund’s term by one year till January 2014

Page 5: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Positive year to date changes in NAV

15.7% increase in NAV in Q1 2012 driven by

5.7% increase in NAV in April 2012

• External appraisal of Probusinessbank, up EUR 18m

• Arm’s-length minority stake transaction in Locko Bank, up EUR 5m

• Bank of Georgia share price increase, Fund’s stake up EUR 9m excluding add-on transaction in March

• In April, the value of Bank of Georgia stake increased further by EUR 2.2m

• Asian-Pacific Bank and Platinum Bank valuations were lifted to 1x 2011 book, up EUR 13.2 in total

Page 6: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

East Capital Financials Fund performance

% Inception y-t-d 3m

NAV -34.6 22.3 21.5

RTS FI -1.0% 16.0 -3.5

OTC Price -62.0 40.7 35.7

Latest NAV as of April 30, 2012

Jan 2006 - Apr 2012

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Ja

n-0

6

Ap

r-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Oct

-06

Ja

n-0

7

Ap

r-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Oct

-07

Ja

n-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Oct

-08

Ja

n-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Oct

-09

Ja

n-1

0

Ap

r-10

Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-11

Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-12

ECFI Net Asset Value OTC prices at Öhmans RTS Financials

Page 7: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Markets are volatile

P/BV multiples based on trailing book

Source: Bloomberg

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

r-10

Ma

y-1

0

Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-11

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Sberbank Bank Vozrozhdenie Bank of St Petersburg Nomos Bank Average

Page 8: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Market valuations as of May 1, 2012

Russian, CIS, GEM banks P/BV multiples

Source: VTB Capital, Banks Watch April 2012

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2011 2012F

Page 9: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Portfolio valuation (as of April 30, 2012)

Date of initial

investment

Ownership

stake

Purchase

price EURm

Fair Value/

Current Book1

% of the

portfolio Likely exit

Probusinessbank Nov. 2006 19.9% 59.0 1.2 26.0% Strategic sale/IPO

Bank of Georgia Apr. 2006 10.2% 35.2 1.3 16.8% Listed

Asian-Pacific Bank4 Dec. 2006 17.9% 22.6 1.0 14.0% Strategic sale

Locko Bank Sept. 2006 11.1% 16.5 1.1 7.7% Strategic sale

Bank Kedr Nov. 2006 18.8% 10.8 1.3 5.4% Strategic sale

Platinum Bank Feb. 2007 23.7% 21.6 1.0 5.8% Strategic sale

Pivdennyi Bank Jan. 2008 10.0% 54.4 1.0 5.1% Strategic sale/IPO

Morgan & Stout Jul. 2008 54.3% 6.4** n/a 3 4.8% Strategic sale

Akibank Jun. 2007 20.0% 13.6 0.7 3.9% Buyback by the owner

FIA Bank Apr. 2008 20.0% 16.7 0.7 1.9% Strategic sale

Bank Nadra Aug. 2006 0.7% 57.4* n/a 1.1% Strategic sale

EE-DF AG Mar. 2010 25.0% 1.1 n/a 3 0.4% -

Total investments 315.2 93.1%

Cash 19.8 6.9%

Total portfolio 335.0 100%

1 Latest available book value, currency adjusted *38.1m Equity and 19.3m Convertible debt 2 Several purchases and thus various multiples ** 2.4m Equity and 4m Convertible loan 3 Not applicable 4 Asian - Pacific Bank merged with Kolyma Bank and Kamchatprombank. Purchase price and fair value are the sums of banks’ prices and valuations the Fund received by external appraiser

Page 10: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Performance highlights 2011

Loan growth y-o-y %

Deposit growth y-o-y %

LTD Return on average

equity Net interest margin Cost/Income Ratio

Sberbank* 40.6% 19.3% 97.3% 28.1% 6.9% 46.9%

Nomos Bank 32.0% 22.0% 117.1% 18.2% 5.3% 47.3%

Bank St Petersburg 14.8% 18.2% 92.6% 17.2% 4.8% 36.2%

Bank Vozrozhdenie 19.5% 11.4% 85.7% 9.0% 5.8% 65.9%

Probusinessbank 28.7% 60.5% 62.6% 17.4% 14.7% 73.9%

Bank of Georgia 10.6% 36.4% 95.7% 19.0% 7.7% 49.9%

Asian-Pacific Bank 89.0% 43.4% 85.2% 30.9% 10.7% 50.5%

Locko Bank 6.1% 16.9% 122.9% 15.3% 4.7% 54.7%

Bank Pivdennyi 6.0% 6.1% 88.9% 3.3% 5.3% 62.7%

Akibank** 13.1% -3.3% 86.2% 2.6% 5.0% 70.1%

FIA Bank** 16.0% 15.8% 84.4% 1.9% 4.9% 81.6%

Platinum Bank*** 105.6% 403.0% 82.2% 11.8% n.a. 56.1%

* Sberbank is the biggest bank in Russia with its assets about 30% of the financial system (close to 1 000 operating banks in the country) and is not a peer to our portfolio holdings

**according to RAS that has discrepancies with IFRS

***according to preliminary IFRS accounts

The banks in the table are ranked by the asset size with growth rates and fundamentals calculated in reporting currencies

Page 11: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

ROaE assumptions 2012

Portfolio breakdown at fair value

as of April 30, 2012

20%

43%

10%

9%

7%

5% 1%

5%

ROaE above 20%

ROaE 15-20%

ROaE 10-15%

RoAE under 10%

Cash

Bank Kedr

Nadra debt instrument

M&S and EE-DF

Page 12: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Price expectations

as of April 30, 2012

Portfolio breakdown at fair value

Timing is crucial

6%

81%

7%

1% 5%

Below 1.3x book

Above 1.3x book

Cash

Nadra debt instrument

M&S and EE-DF

Page 13: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Are we ready to exit?

* within 6 months of starting an active sales process

as of April 30, 2012

Portfolio breakdown at fair value

Timing is crucial

74%

13%

7%

1% 5%

Ready for sale*

More time needed

Cash

Nadra debt instrument

M&S and EE-DF

Page 14: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Example of recent strategic sale

Date of investment November 7, 2006

Exit date* December 19, 2011

Cost of investment 10.8 EURm

Exit price 15.6 EURm

Cash on cash return 46.34%

Gross IRR 7.75%

Sberbank share cash on cash return during the same holding period 14.27%

RTS Financials Index during the same holding period (value-weighted index) -16.90%

Note: all the returns are in EUR terms

RUB depreciated by 19.0% against EUR during the holding period

USD depreciated by 2.6% against EUR during the holding period

* The payment will be received in tranches with the final completion by end of June, return estimates are as if we received cash

on the exit date for relative comparison with Sberbank and RTS Financials

Exit from Bank Kedr

Deal facts

Page 15: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Bank Kedr relative to other investments

Bank Kedr sold for a decent price despite not being one of the stars of the portfolio

Bubble size reflects % of the portfolio

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0%

RO

aE

Asset growth, yoy, %

Bank of Georgia

Akibank

Asian-Pacific Bank

FIA-Bank

Locko Bank

Probusinessbank

Platinum Bank

Pivdennyi Bank

Kedr

2012

2012

2012

2013 2013

2013 2013

2011

Page 16: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Summary and outlook for 2012

Still tough exit environment

• Improved performance supported by favorable macro backdrop and holdings’ focus on profitability

• Continued emphasis on profitability and growth for the best exit value

• Increased M&A activity but lack of deal funding persists

• Public market still not ready for IPOs

• Focus on exits

Page 17: East Capital Financials Fund Management presentation Capital... · 2013-08-23 · Main events 2011 2011 finished on a positive note • Sale-purchase agreement signed to divest the

Hong Kong

Kyiv

Moscow

Oslo

Paris

Shanghai

Stockholm

Tallinn

Thank you!