east asian monsoon: changes and social impacts · 2017-02-01 · ea summer monsoon index zhou, t.,...
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East Asian Monsoon: Changes and Social Impacts
Tianjun ZHOU
Email: [email protected]
http://www.lasg.ac.cn/staff/ztj
WCRP-JNU Training School on Monsoon Variability in Changing Climate
15-21 Jan 2017, Juju National University
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NOAA Earth Light
The majority of EA people lives in the eastern part of the continent:
a monsoon region with more than 1 billion population
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Monsoon in Asia: Supply of water resources for more than one billion people
Subtropical regions of the world are arid/semi-arid regions except for EA
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Summer monsoon circulation
Traditional definition of monsoon:
seasonal reversal of surface wind
What is monsoon ?
Floods & droughts
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Winter monsoon circulation
What is monsoon ?
Cold surge & frozen rain
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Annual mean surface temperature of China
The SAT averaged over Chinese domain shows a warming trend
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Trends of annual minimum Tmin and Ice days (1958-2000).
Regional
average
Spatial
pattern
Li Hongmei, 2007
The minimum temp has increased, while ice day has decreased
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PDF changes of Cold Nights (TN10p)、Warm Nights (TN90p)、Cold
days(TX10p) and warm days (TX90p)
Li Hongmei, 2007
Cold Night& Cold Days decreased, Warm Nights& Warm Days increased
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Xu et al. 2006 JGR
Trend of summer temperature and precipitation (1950-99)
Precipitation
EA summer monsoon index
Zhou, T., D. Gong, J. Li, B. Li, 2009: Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian
Summer Monsoon – Recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18 (4), 455-467
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2008 Jan. cold surge and frozen disasters snowstorm in S. China
From Jan 10 to Jan 31, 2008:
10 provinces affected, 60 people died.
Economic loss more than 53.79 billion RMB
(6 RMB=1 USD)
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2008 Jan. cold surge and frozen disasters snowstorm in S. China
Destruction of power transmission tower-cable system
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2008 Jan. cold surge and frozen disasters snowstorm in S. China
profound influence on life
Influence on crops
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2008 Jan. cold : Railway system destroyed
From Jan 10 to Jan 31, 2008:
2859 passenger trains delayed,
397 passenger trains cancelled,
436 passenger trains weaved the ways
8000 freight trains delayed
From Jan 10-31:
5800,000 (5M) passengers
stayed in the railway
stations & on the trains
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JJA rainfall anomaly of 2012
After BCC, 2012
Extreme rainfall
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Beijing, 21 July, 2012: Rainfall amount
www.baidu.com
1999: 266.9
2001: 338.9
2007: 483.9
2010: 533.8
2011: 721.1
2012:
One-day 460 mm
Total Annual rainfall
Beijing
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21-22 July, 2012: Rainfall amount
Zhou et al. 2013, BAMS
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Extreme rainfall in Beijing: July 21, 2012
Northern part of the downtown
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Extreme rainfall in Beijing: July 21, 2012
Subway
Bus
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Extreme rainfall in Beijing: July 21, 2012
Western part of the downtown
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Beijing, July 21, 2012
www.baidu.com
Disaster area: 16000 km*2;
Damage-suffering population: 1900,000; Dead: 77
Direct economic losses: more than 10 billion RMB
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Heat Wave in China : Aug 2013
www.baidu.com
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Heat Wave in China : Aug 2013
www.baidu.com
Shanghai
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Drought & Flood in China : Aug 2013
Hunan in S. China
Heilongjiang in N. China
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Great efforts should be devoted to the studies
of monsoon activities in high populated regions
of E. Asia.
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www.lasg.ac.cn/staff/ztj