Earthquake Simulation at ESSCC and future eResearch goals

D. WeatherleyEarth Systems Science Computational Centre

Courtesy: J.B. Rundle

Outline• ESSCC earthquake simulation research• Aust. HPC earthquake simulation tools

– Escript– Esys-Particle

• iSERVO case-study scenarios– Strong ground motion prediction– Earthquake forecasting

• US/Aust. Earthquake eResearch Plans

ESSCC Earthquake Simulation Research (1994-2002)

ESSCC Earthquake Simulation Research (2002-2007)

ESSCC HPC Infrastructure Development (2002-2007)

• Software Developers employed– From “Hero code” to Geoscience Software

• Emphasis on HPC computations• Aust. Solid Earth Systems Simulator

– SGI Altix 3700 Supercomputer– 208 Intel Itanium 2 processors– 832Gb RAM– 3Tb disk storage

ESSCC HPC Infrastructure Development (2007-)

• NCRIS 5.13 Capability - AuScope• AuScope Simulation and Modelling WG• Integration with AuScope Data resources• “Gridification” via AuScope Grid WG• Emphasis on Grid delivery to users of

varying computational experience

ESSCC HPC Simulation Toolkits

• Escript– Generic FEM PDE solver – Python scripting interface– MPI and OMP parallelism

• Esys-Particle– DEM particle simulator– Python scripting interface– MPI parallel

escriptModelFrame

XML description layer

EscriptPython scripting interface

pyCADMeshing toolkit

FinleyFEM Solver

Libraries

pyVisiVisualisation

toolkit

metaQuokkaGridSphere

Portal

escript examples

ESyS-Particle• Discrete Element

Method• Python scripting• MPI parallel • Features:

– 3D rotational bonds– Frictional sliding– Thermal conduction– Pore fluid

pressurisation– Deformable elastic

walls

ESyS-Particle examples

iSERVO case-study scenario I

• Strong ground motion prediction– Model the local geological structure– Simulate earthquake rupture– Synthesize ground motions– Predict ground-shaking in scenario

earthquakes

Strong Ground Motion Prediction

Geoscience Data

Basin Model

504,471 nodes464,620 elements

FEMmesh

Escript wavePropagationsimulations

Seismic Data

Inversion

Seismic Hazard Map

iSERVO case-study scenario II• Earthquake Forecasting

– Model the fault system topology and material properties

– Simulate earthquake cycles• Strain accumulation via InSAR/GPS deformation

measurements• Rupture, stress transfer, wave propagation• Post-seismic relaxation, aftershocks, triggering

– Ensemble forecasting future seismicity

Earthquake Forecasting90%

Fault Database

Fault SystemSimulations

Fault ModelReal-timeObservations

“Reliable”Forecasts

Courtesy: J.B. Rundle

Courtesy: NASA/JPL

US/Aust. Earthquake eResearchPlans

• Easy Wins:– Establish regular meetings via Skype/IM– Port SE Qld faults to QuakeTables– Install Virtual California at ESSCC– Port escript/esys-particle to QuakeSIM

US/Aust. Earthquake eResearchPlans

• Challenges– common framework for fault system

simulations– Benchmarking and validation– InSAR data-sharing across Pacific– AuScope+iGEON– GeoSciML – codification of geoscience

AcknowledgmentsP. MoraL. MoresiH. MuhlhausT. PhamD. Place Y. Wang

S. Abe M. Davies L. GrossA. HaleL. KettleS. Latham

APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES)

Goal:To make advancements in understanding the physics of earthquakes via numerical simulations, to address the grand challenge of earthquake prediction.

• APEC endorsed science initiative

• 6 member economies (Aust., Canada, China, Japan, Taiwan, USA)

• 50 “ring-of-fire” institutions

APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES)

Modis Operandi:– Targeted Working Groups– International Workshops– Working Group meetings– ACES Visitors Programme– 4 PAGEOPH Special Issues

Transformed Earthquake Research from competition to collaboration, resulting in significant advances in earthquake simulation capabilities.

International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (iSERVO)

• The successor of ACES• eResearch infrastructure for earthquake

simulation research– Data repositories (seismic, GPS, InSAR,

geological, geophysical)– HPC Facilities (ESSCC, Earth Simulator,

NASA)– Simulation Toolkits and Portals (QuakeSIM)– Grid/WS middleware to “glue-it-together”

Data Types and Sources• Geological

– Structure/petrology• Geophysical

– Gravity/Magnetic• Space-borne

– InSAR/GPS/SRTM/DTM• Seismics

– imaging/seismograms/catalogs/moment tensors/slip distributions

• USGS• Geoscience Australia• Aust. State Surveys• NASA/JPL• IRIS• AuScope• Universities• JMA• CEA• …

Simulation types and tools• Fault zone evolution• Long-term

deformation• Mantle convection• Wave propagation• Regional seismicity• Static/dynamic stress

transfer• …

• DEM• FD/FEM• Boundary Elements• Cellular Automata• Hybrid methods• Generic/specific

simulation models• Inversion techniques• Signal analysis

Can we fix it?• Lack of agreed

standards• Software portability

issues• Difficult to port a

workflow to a different region/facility/data source

• HPC accessibility• User-unfriendliness

• GeoSciML• HPC facilities =

hardware + software• Sematic Grid • NCRIS PfC• User portals (GEON)

Yes, we can!

Concluding Remarks

• iSERVO provides a focal point for next generation earthquake research

• Multiple national projects can be leveraged/linked (QuakeSIM, AuScope, GEON, TerraGrid, …)

• eResearch infrastructure has the potential to revolutionize earthquake research and render earthquake forecasting a routine exercise