EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT CITY BEING PLANNED FOR

TOKYO A BACKUP IN CASE OF DISASTER

Walter Hays

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

REGIONAL MAP

LOCATION OF TOKAI

TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM EARTHQUAKES

TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM EARTHQUAKES

CAN TOKYO BE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT?

ALTHOUGH VERY VULNERABLE, TOKYO WANTS TO BECOME RESILIENT AS QUICKLY

AS POSSIBLE

CAN TOKYO BE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT?

ALTHOUGH VERY VULNERABLE, TOKYO WANTS TO BECOME RESILIENT AS QUICKLY

AS POSSIBLE

TOKYO—THE TOKYO—THE CAPITAL CITYCAPITAL CITYTOKYO—THE TOKYO—THE CAPITAL CITYCAPITAL CITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SITE AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

FIRES

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

A VIEW OF TOKYO FROM TOKYO SKY TREE TOWER: NOVEMBER 2, 2011

The catastrophe caused by the

M9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011 and

concern about inevitable earthquake disasters in the

future served as a catalyst for planning a backup city for

Tokyo

ITRBBC: A CONCEPT

$180,000 BEING REQUESTED FOR A FEASIBILITY STUDY TO

START THE PROCESS

The plan, URBAN PLAN B, calls for construction of a NEW CITY to

be called IRTBBC (Integrated Resort, Tourism, Business, and Backup City) or NEMIC (National

Emergency Management International City) on the site

currently occupied by the Osaka International Airport at Itami

OSAKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

ITRBBC’s FUNCTIONS

• ITRBBC would take on all the functions of Tokyo, the capital, in the event of a catastrophe.

ITRBBC’s CENTERPIECE

• The centerpiece, a 650 m-high- tower, would house 50,000 residents and accommodate a work-day force of 200,000 people from the Osaka region.

WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FOR

JAPAN

• A difficult question, but ---

• It is the question that was being asked long before the March 11, 2011 TOHOKU earthquake catastrophe.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Before the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the Government of Japan expected its next great earthquake to be “the Tokai Earthquake.”

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOTOKAI, JAPAN

EARTHQUAKE ZONE

AN IMPENDING DISASTER

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• The Nankai trough marks the boundary where the Philippines tectonic plate is subducting beneath Japan (a part of the Eurasian plate).

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• At present, the land near Shizuoka is sinking toward the Nankai trough at about 5 mm/yr.

• Japan’s Earthquake Research Institute is on record that the Tokai earthquake is eminent.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The precise area along the Pacific coast-- about 160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is expected to be affected has been delineated by scientific studies, and, by law, is the focus of intensive preparations.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated deaths — between 7,900 and 9,200 depending on the amount of advance warning people have, the time of day when it occurs, and the tsunami, and Estimated pro-perty damage –- as much as $310 billion.

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations

• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires – 58,402 specific houses

TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• The Government of Japan is currently deploying strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record the slip and then provide as much advance warning as possible.