earthquake forecasting system
TRANSCRIPT
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POC
Gerald Temple, PE
mobile: (510) 304-7243
Friedemann Freund, PhD
mobile: (650) 279-8478
TRL 2 Technology Concept
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Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Principle Concepts
• EQFS: world’s first earthquake forecasting algorithm using NASA’s System Engineering approach.
• EQFS combines historical EQ fault information with multi-source real time data from satellites and ground observations.
• EQFS uses computer modeling and testability analysis to simulate an EQ as a system with many interactive subsystems:
• Input• Output• Feedback • Precursory functionality.
• EQFS uses a probability quantification analysis for simplistic computation: • Less chance for error• Easy comprehension• Easy communication• Quick and easy updating and modification.
• EQFS finds probability of an EQ of a given magnitude range within a given timewindow for a given geographical area.
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Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Generic System Failure Probability Diagram to develop the TEAMS
Earthquake ForecastingTestability Model
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Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Top Level Functional Flow Diagram of an Unstable Nonlinear Geo-System
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Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Detailed Level Functional Flow Diagram
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Architecture for a new approach toearthquake forecasting.
Will save countless lives and billions of dollars throughout the world.
Magnitude 6.3 earthquake rocks Christchurch, NZ, on Feb. 22, 2011 at 12.51 pm local time