earthquake forecasting system

6
POC Gerald Temple, PE [email protected] mobile: (510) 304-7243 Friedemann Freund, PhD [email protected] mobile: (650) 279-8478 TRL 2 Technology Concept

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Page 1: Earthquake Forecasting System

POC

Gerald Temple, PE

[email protected]

mobile: (510) 304-7243

Friedemann Freund, PhD

[email protected]

mobile: (650) 279-8478

TRL 2 Technology Concept

Page 2: Earthquake Forecasting System

Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Principle Concepts

• EQFS: world’s first earthquake forecasting algorithm using NASA’s System Engineering approach.

• EQFS combines historical EQ fault information with multi-source real time data from satellites and ground observations.

• EQFS uses computer modeling and testability analysis to simulate an EQ as a system with many interactive subsystems:

• Input• Output• Feedback • Precursory functionality.

• EQFS uses a probability quantification analysis for simplistic computation: • Less chance for error• Easy comprehension• Easy communication• Quick and easy updating and modification.

• EQFS finds probability of an EQ of a given magnitude range within a given timewindow for a given geographical area.

Page 3: Earthquake Forecasting System

Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Generic System Failure Probability Diagram to develop the TEAMS

Earthquake ForecastingTestability Model

Page 4: Earthquake Forecasting System

Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Top Level Functional Flow Diagram of an Unstable Nonlinear Geo-System

Page 5: Earthquake Forecasting System

Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Detailed Level Functional Flow Diagram

Page 6: Earthquake Forecasting System

Architecture for a new approach toearthquake forecasting.

Will save countless lives and billions of dollars throughout the world.

Magnitude 6.3 earthquake rocks Christchurch, NZ, on Feb. 22, 2011 at 12.51 pm local time