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1

Global

Warming

Ch. 3

CHM 107

Dr.

Kimberly

Smith

2

Glaciers

• Glacier park in Montana had 150

glaciers in 1910

• In 2008 there are only 27 left

• Soon there will be none

• Why?

3

Evidence • Making predictions on a global scale is very

complex, there are so many variables, scientists do the best we can and often have the minimum and maximum effects calculated

• IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change = scientific body assigned to understand climate change http://www.ipcc.ch/

– IPCC and Al Gore awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2007

• IPCC tends to be conservative. Measurements of temperature rising and sea level rising are greater than the IPCC predicted for 2001-2010. Criticized for underestimating dangers.

4

Science Lingo

• In science we never prove anything, we

always try to disprove something

• Scientists almost never say never or always

– >90% means very likely

– >66% is likely

– <33% is unlikely

– <10% is very unlikely

5

IPCC

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• Scientific body that reviews and assesses recent

scientific studies on climate

• Established in 1988 by the United Nations

• Shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore

• Reports published in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007

`The balance of evidence

suggests that there is a

discernible human

influence on global

climate '

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United

Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996

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`There is new and stronger

evidence that most of the

warming observed over

the last 50 years is

attributable to human

activity'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United

Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001

`Most of the observed increase

in globally averaged

temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very likely due to the

observed increase in

greenhouse gas concentrations.'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United

Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

`Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal, as is now evident

from observations of increases in

global average air and ocean

temperatures, widespread melting

of snow and ice, and rising global

mean sea level.'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United

Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

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IPCC Statements

• Very unlikely that climate warming is natural

• Very likely that Humans are the cause of

this unprecedented warming

• 10 of the hottest years ever have been

since 1995

• Animals are slowly moving their habitat

faster than ever measured before.

Unfortunately plants can’t move as easily.

This becomes a problem as animals search

for food.

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What is Climate Change?

• “Climate Change” is typically what we mean

when we refer to the long-term warming of

planet Earth due to human activity,

specifically the increasing in the

concentration of greenhouse gases.

• “Global Warming” is also a popular phrase

for the increasing temperatures on Earth.

Greenhouse Gasses (GHG)

• CO2

• CH4

• N2O

• H2O • Greehouse Effect

– Sunlight heats up Earth’s surface

– Earth radiates heat back into the air

– Greenhouse gasses absorb some of this heat and don’t let Earth’s heat out

Carbon dioxide

Carbon tetrahydride (methane)

Dinitrogen monoxide (nitrous oxide)

Dihydrogen monoxide (water vapor)

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• GHG in our air are good at trapping heat

waves and emitting them back towards Earth

• Heat is infrared (IR) radiation

• We must have greenhouse gases or Earth

would be too cold to support life

• The balance of greenhouse gases is very

delicate

• We must have just the right amount of heat

trapped versus heat escaping back into space

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3.1 Too many GHG = Venus

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4.5 billion years of history • Earth in the beginning was much hotter than

now and could not support life, there was lots of volcanic gas, high CO2 levels and high temperatures

• Eventually Earth cooled down, plants begin to grow and turn CO2 into O2 and animals evolved much latter once the Earth was cooler. Much CO2 became carbonates in rocks.

• Data about the Earth’s atmosphere come from ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica

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3.2 Evidence from the

Earth

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Where does Data

come from?

• Ice cores

• Direct Measurements

• Tree rings

• Ocean cores

• Glaciers melting

• Sea level rising

• Coral Cores

• Documents

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Global mean

temperature

Global average

sea level

Northern

hemisphere

snow cover

Observations of recent climate change

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Global Instrumental Temperature Record

10 warmest years

Reconstructed Surface Temperatures

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Sea-level rise

26 1980

-0.2

0.4

Ice

Exte

nt A

no

ma

ly (

10

6 k

m2)

0.0

0.2

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-0.4

-0.8

-0.6

Arctic sea ice extent

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

310

320

340

360

370

380

Ca

rbo

n D

ioxid

e C

on

ce

ntr

atio

n (

pp

mv)

330

350

390

Carbon Dioxide Concentration

28

270

290

360

370

380

Ca

rbo

n D

ioxi

de

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

pp

mv)

280

300

310

320

330

340

350

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Mauna Loa, Hawaii (1958 - present)

Siple Station (1750 - )

Past CO2 concentrations

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800 600 400 200 0

CO

2 (

pp

mv)

Thousands of Years Before Present

Present CO2

concentration

(393 ppmv)

CO2 concentration

after 50 years of

unrestricted fossil

fuel burning (600

ppmv)

240

300

270

210

180

Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004

Te

mp

.

Pro

xy

• Sea level rising

• by thermal expansion AND ice melt

• Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic)

• Glaciers melting worldwide

• Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest

• More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms,

heat waves, tornadoes, hard freezes, etc.)

• Bottom line:

• These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we

add the effects of increased Greenhouse gasses

Signs that global warming is underway

• Earth is 1°F warmer than 100 years ago

• Not equally distributed

– Some areas have warmed 11°F

• Weather becoming more variable and more severe

• Glacier park in Montana had

150 glaciers in 1910

• In 2008 there were only 27 left

• Soon there will be none

Some climate change facts

By 2014 we have seen:

Antarctic sea ice break-ups

Antarctic Peninsula warming

Arctic sea ice melting

Faster Arctic warming (11°F!)

Melting of small glaciers worldwide

Sea level rise

Predicted changes of human climate change

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Scientists have no doubt Glaciers fluctuate with climate

Glacier ice

Sea ice

18,000 years ago Present

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Arctic Sea Ice Melting

Polar Bear Populations

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Future of Polar Bears

• Unless the pace of global warming slows or

stops, polar bears could disappear within a

century, says a University of Alberta expert

in Arctic ecosystems. While it has been

known for some time that the polar bear is

in trouble, new research shows that Arctic

ice - the polar bear's primary habitat - is

melting much faster than scientists had

believed, says U of A biologist Dr. Andrew

Derocher.

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Antarctic Sea Ice Melting

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Antarctic Sea Ice Break-ups

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Greenland

Ice Melting

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Carroll Glacier, Alaska

1906 2004

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McCarty Glacier, Alaska

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Muir and Riggs Glaciers, Alaska

1993

2000

Kilimanjaro

images taken

from the shuttle

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1970 2005

Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

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Qori Kalis, Peru

1978 2002

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49 1928 2004

Patagonia, South America

• ~80% of world’s water supply

• Rapidly retreating worldwide

• Glaciers and ice caps gone by 2100 or sooner

• Major ice sheets also retreating

• People depending on this water source will become environmental refuges

Who cares about glaciers?

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Sea-level rising

• Thermal expansion (warmer water

expands and needs more space)

• Addition of water from melting ice

• Melting ice sheets

– Greenland: 7.4 m (25’) potential

– Antarctica: 74 m (250’) potential

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1992 2005

Greenland satellite melt record

1 year of melt!

R. Huff, J. Box, S. Starkweather, T. Albert

This is how much ice

melted in just one

year.

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Sea Level Rise

• Areas in red

will be

under water

if all

Greenland

melts.

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Earth if Antarctica melts

• Fastest extinction rate of life on Earth in 65

Million years (1000x normal rate)

• Increased disease (e.g. asthma, malaria,

West Nile, dengue fever)

• Increased poverty and hunger

• More extreme weather – Droughts

– Flooding

– Heat-waves

– Storms

Additional consequences

European heat wave of 2003 killed 40,000

Animals are slowly moving their habitat faster

than ever measured before. Unfortunately

plants can’t move as easily. This becomes a

problem as animals search for food.

Additional consequences

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3.3 Molecular Shapes

• Linear like HCl, O2, H2, and N2

• Bent like H2O, O3

• Tetrahedral like CH4

• Trigonal pyramid like NH3

• What really determines these shapes?

Electrons determine shapes. Electrons are

negative and repel each other

Shapes

• Any molecule with only two atoms must be

linear like N2 or O2 or HF.

• Most other molecules are 3 dimensional.

• 3 atoms can be linear or bent – it bends if

there are lone pairs of electrons

• 4 atoms can be trigonal planar or trigonal

pyramid – pyramid if there are lone pairs of

electrons

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What are the Shapes?

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3.4 Vibrations

• IR, infrared radiation is the right energy to cause chemical bonds to vibrate

• Each chemical bond, like N-H, C-C, O-H, P-Cl, F-H, etc., has its own unique IR energy that causes it to vibrate

• An IR spectrometer is a machine that hits chemical samples with IR radiation and records what energies / waves are absorbed as they vibrate.

• From an IR graph we can tell what bonds are in a molecule, and then figure out the entire molecule

• How greenhouse gases work is that they absorb certain heat / IR waves, vibrate, and then release the remaining heat energy back out towards Earth

IR

• IR energy is not enough to break bonds. But

it can stretch and bend bonds.

• Stretching takes more energy than bending

a bond. Just like it does for a spring.

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IR Spectra

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IR Spectra of CO2

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Microwave radiation

• Ever wonder how your microwave works?

• It causes H2O molecules to spin

• What happens when things spin fast?

• The more water in your food, the faster it

heats

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Recap

• UV radiation

– Can break bonds or knock out electrons from

atoms in a molecule

• IR radiation

– Causes bonds to vibrate

• Microwave radiation

– Causes molecules to spin

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3.5 Carbon Cycle

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Carbon Cycle • Plants / trees remove CO2 from the air, die and

put carbon back in the soil, which grows new plants, which animals eat, who breathe out CO2 which trees absorb.

• This cycle has existed for millions of years before humans started adding extra CO2 to the air by car exhaust and burning coal and oil.

• Cutting down trees also interferes with the Carbon Cycle

• Brazil is using the most rain forest per day

• Deforestation causes extinctions and climate change as seen in the fossil record and current data

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Deforestation • Earth loses 1.5 acres of forest every second

• Deforestation is responsible for 20% of greenhouse gas increases

• Burning forests releases all the carbon back into the air in the form of CO2

• Unless something changes, by 2030 only 10% of forests will remain

• When forests are cut down, all the species living there are also killed

• New satellite images show that the Amazon rainforest is disappearing twice as fast as previously thought

• Some scientists believe the rainforests will be gone by 2050 worst case scenario.

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Madagascar Deforestation

http://www.conservation.org/fmg/pages/videoplayer.aspx?videoid=23

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3.6 More about atomic Mass • Recall one atom’s mass = # protons + #

neutrons

• 1 proton weighs 1.66 x 10-24 grams (neutron too)

• Carbon-12 means mass of 12 x 1.66 x 10-24 grams (tiny)

– Mass of 12 = protons + neutrons

– Carbon is element 6 so 6 protons

– That means there must be 6 neutrons

• Carbon-13 means ___ protons + ___ neutrons

• Carbon-14 means ___ protons + ___ neutrons

• Carbon-12, Carbon-13, and Carbon-14 are

isotopes of each other

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Isotopes

• Atoms with the same number of protons

but different number of neutrons

• Which of the following pairs are

isotopes?

• Nitrogen-15 and fluorine-15

• Nitrogen-15 and nitrogen-14

• Fluorine-25 and chlorine-25

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Review

• One atom’s mass is a whole number

because you can’t have part of a proton or

neutron

• The Periodic Table mass has decimal

places, so is not the mass of one atom, but

what?

The average mass of all atoms

of that element in the world

Atomic mass

• The periodic table show C has an atomic

mass of 12.011 amu. That is NOT the

mass for one single carbon atom, but the

average of all the carbon-12, -13, and -14

atoms in the world.

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Example - Nitrogen

• How many protons, neutrons, and electrons

are in an atom of nitrogen-14?

• How about nitrogen-15?

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How atoms relate to grams • Avogadro’s number is a super large number

– 6.02 x 1023 atoms

• This is how many atoms are in the mass in grams of the periodic table. Examples:

– Carbon is 12.011 grams for 6.02 x 1023 atoms

– Helium is 4.00 grams for 6.02 x 1023 atoms

• How many grams is 6.02 x 1023 atoms of hydrogen?

• How many grams is 6.02 x 1023 atoms of oxygen?

• How many grams is 6.02 x 1023 atoms of chlorine?

Avogadro’s Number

• Similar to the idea of a dozen being 12.

• Avogadro’s number is just really large, 6.02

x 1023. 602,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

• This many atoms is about a handful. A

small handful for smaller atoms like lithium,

and a large handful for larger atoms like

uranium.

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6.7 The Mole

• When we have 6.02 x 1023 atoms we call

this a mole of atoms.

• The periodic table mass can also be in units

of grams per one mole.

• C is 12.011 grams per one mole (g/mol)

• What is the grams per mole for:

– Nitrogen?

– Oxygen?

– Sodium?

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Molar Mass

• Molar Mass is the grams per one mole for a

chemical

• Simply add up the atoms masses for a total

• Calculate the Molar Mass of carbon dioxide

– One carbon is 12.011 g/mol

– Two oxygens is 32.00 g/mol

– Total is 44.011 g/mol

• Calculate the Molar Mass of methane and

ammonia

• Try “Your turn 3.21” page 124 82

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3.8 Greenhouse Gases • Carbon dioxide

• Most of the focus is on this one

• Humans have greatly increased the level of CO2 in air

• Produced by car exhaust

• Produced by burning fossil fuels

• Some CO2 is necessary in our air to keep Earth warm

• But current levels of CO2 (395 ppm) have not been seen in 800,000 years. What will this mean?

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Greenhouse Gases

• Methane CH4

• 2nd most important GHG

• 20 times more effective at trapping heat

than CO2

• 1.75 ppm in 2005

• Sources: natural gas, decaying plants,

landfills, rice paddies, animals, termites,

thawing permafrost

• 500 L per day per cow!

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Greenhouse Gases • Nitrous oxide N2O

• 3rd most important GHG

• Aka laughing gas

• 0.314 ppm in 2005

• 300 times more effective at trapping heat than CO2

• Sources: bacteria in soil, agriculture, fertilizer, catalytic converters

• Very stable – can last up to 114 years in air

3.9 Gathering Evidence

• Predicting climate change is hard – so

many variables

• Aerosols help slow global warming by

promoting cloud formation

• Snow reflects sunlight, as snow melts, more

heat is absorbed by land

• Population – more people, more GHG –

where will our population stabilize?

• Insect regions expand – more malaria,

dengue fever, cholera 86

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3.10 Strategies

• Reduce fossil fuel burning

– Use alternative energy (solar, wind, nuclear)

– Drive hybrid or electric cars

• Carbon sequestration (capture and store

CO2)

• Pump CO2 below the ocean floor

• Plant more trees

• Stop cutting down trees

• Eat less meat

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• Scientists are united – climate change is

occurring and is caused by humans

• There will be warming in the next century,

do we act now or wait?

• 85% of world’s needs supplied by fossil

fuels

• Waiting until we run out of fossil fuels is not

a viable option

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3.11 Kyoto Protocol • In 1997, 161 countries met and discussed

climate change in Kyoto Japan

• 110 countries signed on to reduce their carbon

footprint

• The USA did not

– Thus some states have set their own lower emission

standards since the feds have not

– And some cities have also set their own standards

• In 2012 the Kyoto Protocol expires and a new

agreement will be reached. Will the USA join

now?

Cap and Trade credits

• Russia has reduced its CO2 emissions and so had “credits”

to sell to countries that didn’t reduce enough like Europe and

Japan.

• One problem with Kyoto protocol is developing nations have

no limits – they can build dirty coal factories – only

industrialized nations have limits

• Ten Northeast states have developed their own cap and

trade system.

• Three western states, CA, WA, OR, have plans to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions from factories and automobiles.

• Mayors Climate Agreement – 227 cities have agreed to

lower emissions = 44 million people

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2012 Doha Climate Talks

• Parties to the Kyoto Protocol agreed to a

second commitment period of emissions

reductions from January 2013 to December

2020, which takes the form of an

amendment to the Protocol. The 37

countries with binding targets in the second

commitment period are Australia, all

members of the European Union, Belarus,

Croatia, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Norway,

Switzerland, and Ukraine. 95

3.12 Global warming / Ozone

depletion • Don’t confuse them

• The ozone hole is NOT causing global

warming

• CFC’s are however GHG but their

concentration is small and causes just a

little global warming

• CO2 is the main GHG we are concerned

about

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Mass extinction

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Habitat loss

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Coral bleaching

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Healthy Coral

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Bleached Coral

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103 104

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Rare Giant Jellyfish now common

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What can you do?

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Reduce consumption,

especially of plastics and meat

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Did You Know • Meat industry causes more water pollution

than all other industries combined

• Food animals create 86,600 pounds of

excrement per second

• Meat industry uses half our potable water

• Takes 2500 gallons of water to produce one

pound of meat.

• Rain forests being cut down for space.

• Raising animals for food uses about 1/3 of our

energy (fossil fuels)

• One hamburger = 20 miles in a car

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Use Steel Water Bottle

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Use Reusable Bags

Plant trees

and stop

cutting them

down

Drive less,

carpool more,

use the light rail

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Shop

smart

Support alternative energy,

choose wind power or solar

power or green plan with APS

Unplug

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Call your

Congressperson

and Senators

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Calculate YOUR Carbon

footprint – you may be surprised

carbonfootprint.com

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Calculate your Water

footprint too

waterfootprint.org

soy burger = 160 liters

beef burger = 1200 liters

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121

Here’s How YOU Can

Make a Difference

• And save up to $540 per year

and reduce your CO2 by 10,713

pounds per year !!!

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What you can do

1) Wash clothes in warm water or cold water,

not hot.

CO2 Reduction: 350 lbs per year

Money Savings: $20 per year

2) Turn down your water heater thermostat:

120 oF is usually hot enough.

Changing from 140 to 120 oF:

CO2 Reduction: 200 lbs per year

Money Savings: $10 per year

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What you can do 3) Use the energy-saving setting to dry the

dishes. Don't use heat when drying. Only run a full load of dishes. CO2 Reduction: 100 lbs per year Money Savings: $5 per year

4) Don't overheat or overcool rooms. Adjust your thermostat (lower in winter, higher in summer). For each 2-degrees lowered: CO2 Reduction: 350 lbs per year Money Savings: $20 per year

Don’t forget to change your filter often! 124

What you can do

5) Buy energy-efficient compact fluorescent

bulbs. By replacing six incandescent lights

with compact fluorescent lights:

CO2 Reduction: 500 lbs per year

Money Savings: $30 per year

6) Wrap your water heater in an insulating

jacket.

CO2 Reduction: 250 lbs per year

Money Savings: $15 per year

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What you can do

7) Install low-flow showerheads to use less

hot water.

CO2 Reduction: 350 lbs per year

Money Savings: $20 per year

8) Insulate your attic: this can save about

20% of home heating bills

CO2 Reduction: 2000 lbs per year

Money Savings: $125 per year

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What you can do

9) Plant trees next to your home.

For each tree:

CO2 Reduction: 13 lbs per year

10)When you buy a car, choose one that gets

good gas mileage. For an increase from

20 mpg to 23 mpg in average fuel

efficiency:

CO2 Reduction: 3000 lbs per year

Money Savings: $300 per year on gas

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What you can do

11)Reduce your trash generation: Buy

minimally packaged goods; choose reusable

products over disposable ones; donate

items to charity, etc.

CO2 Reduction: 1200 lbs per year

12)Recycle your potentially recyclable trash

(paper, plastics and glass.) By recycling

half of household trash:

CO2 Reduction: 2400 lbs per year

Be informed

Vote

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TIME, Sept 2008

• “Pork and Beef isn't just clogging your arteries; it's flame-broiling the earth, too.”

• Animal farming is 18% of greenhouse gas emissions while cars are 13%.

• Much of it comes from deforestation. Eating that burger = cutting rain forest which absorbs carbon dioxide.

• Manure generates nitrous oxide – 300 times more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2

• Eating meat = bloated waistlines and heart attacks

• Giving up meat is the greenest thing you can do