earth observation: state of play and future …51kg+terra bella 25 omniearth iceye 50+ geo-optics 24...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented bySima Fishman, Managing DirectorEuroconsult USA
21st September 2016Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing (ACCRES) meeting
EARTH OBSERVATION: STATE OF PLAY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
SNAPSHOT OF THE INDUSTRY
• 163 satellites (>50kg) launched for civil/commercial Earth observation and 31 for GEO/LEO meteorology over 2006-2015, from 35 countries
• To expand to over 400 satellites for civil Earth observation & over 50 for meteorology from 2016-2025 as further governments and commercial enterprises launch capacity
• In addition, up to 2,000 satellites <50kg , built in constellation will add to the overall supply: first constellations taking shape, some funding still required
• Majority of satellites launched from government space agencies; civil government investment topped $10 billion for the first time in 2015
• Commercial data market totaled $1.7 billion in 2015: • 5%, 5-year CAGR - defense remains the main growth driver
• Value-added services market reached $3.2 billion in 2015• 11%, 5-year CAGR environment monitoring and infrastructure projects lead.
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY CLIENT TYPOLOGY*
2006-2015 2016-2025M
AR
KET
VA
LUE
SAT.
LA
UN
CH
ES
163satellites
OtherLeading
Gvmt(40%)
Dual-use(21%)
Developing Govt.(17%)
Commercial Const. (9%)
Commercial (other) (6%)
$18.4billion
OtherLeading
Gvmt(39%)
Dual-use(25%)
Developing (8%)
Commercialconst. (4%)
Commercial (other)(13%)
400+satellites
OtherLeading
Gvmt(24%)
Dual-use(9%)Developing
(19%)
CommercialConstellation
(40%)
Commercial (other) (5%)
$35.5 billion
OtherLeading
Gvmt(38%)
Dual-use(13%)
Developing (15%)
CommercialConst. (21%)
Commercial (other) (6%)
USG (7%) USG (3%)
USG (11%) USG (7%)
*civil and commercial only
SATELLITES BY CLIENT TYPOLOGY: COMMERCIAL
24 satellites
US (other) (17%)
RoW Constellation(54%)
RoW(Other) (21%)
$3.1billion
2006-2015 2016-2025
180+satellites
$~10 billion
MA
RK
ET V
ALU
ESA
T. L
AU
NC
HES
USConstellation. (8%)
US Comm. (other) (7%)
RoWConst. (16%)
RoW (Other) (5%)
US Constellation (72%)
US Constellation (3%)
US (other)(46%)
RoW Const. (22%)
RoW (Other) (29%)
US Constellation (55%)
US (other) (14%)
RoW Const. (22%)
RW (Other) (9%)
GOVERNMENT EO PROGRAMS
< $10 million
$10 - $50 million
$50 - $100 million
$100 - $200 million
$200 - $500 million
$500 - $1000 million
>$1000 million
• Other 50 countries investing, reaching $10 billion in civil investment
• First destination for emerging programs
EO COMMERCIAL DATA SALES
BY CUSTOMER
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
BY DATA
U.S. DEFENSE
NON-U.S. DEFENSE
NON DEFENSE
VHR OPTICAL (≤1M)
OPTICAL
SAR$
mill
ion
• Commercial data market reached $1.7 billion in 2015
• Defense markets dominate, topping $1 billion. Reflected in the procurement of VHR data
• Defense/maritime remains first destination for SA
• Non-US defense remains most significant growth driver (11% 5-year CAGR)
• Enterprise markets gaining traction – mainly going to support VAS development
• More moderate resolution datasets starting to slow (in revenue generation) – price pressure, greater availability of lower cost solutions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
LATAM
EUROPE
MIDDLE EASTRUSSIA & CIS
AFRICA
REST OF ASIA
SE ASIA & OCE.
$m
illio
n
FORECAST COMMERCIAL DATA SALES
BY REGION
BY SECTOR
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
DEFENSE
CIVIL & ENTERPRISE MARKETS
• Commercial data market to reach $3 billion in 2025 (6% CAGR)
• Lower figure on previous years:• Slowing regional markets
(LATAM, Russia)• Oil and gas impact• Greater price pressure >
higher usage, but at a lower data cost
• Regionally, Asian markets in double-digit growth, expected to become second area for data sales
• LBS markets fast developing – but expected to be greater emphasis on lower-cost data inputs to build VAS
NORTH AMERICA
VALUE ADDED SERVICES MARKET
4%
DATA:
$1.7 Bn.
61%
10%
9%
7%
2%
5%
2%
SERVICES:
$3.2 Bn. Defense (15%)
Energy
(9%)
Natural
Resources
(13%)
Infrastructure
(33%)
Disaster
Management (4%)
Environment
Monitoring (21%)
Maritime (2%)
LBS (3%)
• Total VAS + Data market = $4.9Bn (of which $3.2 VAS)
• Key markets those which leverage lower-cost/free data sets
• Defense sector data sales do not translate in VAS > much work done in-house
• Current market forecast to reach $5.3 by 2025 (5% CAGR)
• However, potential for additional service areas to open up focused on high revisit location-based application
• Uptake can be significant –though entry in to new markets a challenge
Operational Satellites Based on Future Launches
SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL SUPPLY EXPANSION
0
50
100
150
200
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F 2018F 2020F 2022F 2024F
#sat
ellit
es
OPTICAL & SAR SATELLITE UNITS AS PART OF A
CONSTELLATION
SAR
OPTICAL
Operational satellites (>50kg) based on anticipated lifespans
* Commercial refers to commercially operated and commercial data availability from government satellites with data <2.5m optical or <5m SAR
Launched and in Operation
ADDING EVEN MORE INTO THE MIX
To Be Launched (2016-2025)10
12
150+
~40
Planet 160+
Spire
1000+
4
2
18
UrtheCast
~100BlackSky
16
260
50 kg
Corvus 2 8
Satellogic
Hera Systems
PlanetIQ
51KG+ Terra Bella 25
OmniEarth
50+Iceye
Geo-Optics 24
Planetary Resources
Launched*
<10 kg(75%)
10-50 kg(18%)
50-250 kg(5%)
251-500 kg(2%)
2016-20252,130 UNITS
EO SMALLSATS TO BE
LAUNCHED BY MASS
• Numerous companies putting forward constellation solutions• Sector attracted >$500 million in investment other last few
years, though slowed in last 18 months• First full operations for several actors expected in next 2-3 years• Further funding required to support more ventures
* As of April 2016
PRICING STRATEGIES
0
10
20
30
40
0 1 2 3 4 5
Resolution (m)
Pri
ce: $
/km
2
High-accuracy and high-resolution from DigitalGlobe,
Airbus
High-accuracy and high-resolution multispectral;
including WorldView-3 SWIR bands
High-moderate resolution data, less stringent on geolocation accuracy
Announced Hera Pricing
OPTICAL COMMERCIAL DATA PRICING• Current prices for EO data range
from free to over $100/km2: Ranges due to GSD, spectral res., geolocation accuracy
• … 1m optical data can be acquired for $5/km2 if there’s compromise on accuracy.
• With competition prices are expected to fall at a faster rate than current: 3-5%/year
• New lower-cost solutions expected to challenge on price, albeit if challenged by platform stability
• Bringing the geolocation accuracy into the 10–20 m CE90 range would make the data suitable for most applications.
*Newly acquired level 1 data, data prices from the last 12 months
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
• EO supply expected to expand rapidly in the coming 5-years; this will add competition and challenge on price, but growing commercial capabilities (in hyperspectral, GPS-RO, meteo…)
• Possible for supply to start outstripping demand… unless new markets are opened up?
• Investment into the sector slowing in the last year; a wait and see approach for emerging constellations? Further companies still requiring further funding
ON SUPPLY
ON DEMAND
• VAS more commonly using lower-cost datasets, argument for allowing certain data types to go for free (as supported by Copernicus, Landsat)
• Two differing markets? Or two tiers of data? One for high-end data to support defense, lower-cost, high revisit data building services?
• Defense expected to remain first market for commercial data; infrastructure, environment and emerging LBS for value-added services