Earth Observation for Weather

International trends & developments

Earth observation applications

Business development

Capacity building

Mark Noort, consultant, project manager HCP international: consulting, marketing of earth observation Project director EOPOWER: project for promotion & capacity building of earth observation applications

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0. Introduction

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Sequence:

• General assessment of the state-of-the-art of earth observation

• Major trends and developments in the application field

• Description of earth observation solutions

• Assessment of market potential for earth observation solutions and marketing instruments

• Capacity building for successful application of earth observation solutions

Earth Observation helps you: save money save lives save the environment

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Earth observation applications

• On the verge of reaching new user communities

• These new user communities need to be involved

• Weakest link / last mile aspects are important

• Marketing needed: promotion & capacity building

Life cycle of products & services

Initialization

System analysis & design

Rapid prototyping

System development

Implementation

Post-implementation

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Weather: state of the atmosphere, to the degree that it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy.

Atmosphere: a layer of gases surrounding a planet or other material body of sufficient mass that is held in place by the gravity of the body.

Weather forecast / prediction: the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location.

Weather aspects are also covered in the disaster management toolkit, climate toolkit, energy and mining toolkit, environmental management toolkit and agriculture toolkit.

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Scope and definitions

Assessment of business & funding opportunities

• Categories of weather products & services

• Life cycle phase of product or service

• Regional context, level of technological & economic development

• Optimum marketing mix

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1. International trends & developments in weather

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Issues & trends in weather

• Improvements in weather forecasting accuracy and capability, including high-impact weather prediction;

• Increased attention for communication with stakeholders and support to decision-making;

• Increased attention for changes of weather patterns in different climate scenarios (see also climate toolkit).

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Drivers

• Importance of timely and accurate weather forecasts for all kinds of economic activity;

• Increased vulnerability (in terms of economic losses and lives lost) in relation to high-impact weather events (concentration of people and physical assets, especially in urban areas);

• Uncertainty about future weather with respect to climate change (trends, seasonal forecasts and deviations from “normal, expected” weather).

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Weather forecasting accuracy and capability

• Improvements in forecasting related to: time range (nowcasting,

short, medium, long), accuracy, probability, risk (possible damage /

lives lost); • Numerical weather prediction (NWP): application of model(s)

using mathematical equations for weather prediction (divide the

atmosphere in grid boxes, record data on processes for each grid box and then calculate the future state for that box);

• Nowcasting: technique for very short range forecasting (map the

current weather, use the speed and direction of movement to forecast the weather a short period ahead);

• Ensemble forecasting: estimate risk of particular weather events, using multiple forecasts (by making small alterations to either

the starting conditions or the forecast model, or both).

• Improvement of weather forecasts in the form of the THORPEX and TIGGE programmes (as part of THORPEX)

• THORPEX (THe Observing system Research and Predictability Experiment) is an international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy and utility of high-impact weather forecasts up to two weeks ahead

• TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) provides a data base of ensemble predictions from the leading global NWP centres, for scientific research on predictability and development of probabilistic weather forecasting methods

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World Weather Research Programme:

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THORPEX

Global observing system

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Weather: improved forecasts

Improvement in accuracy of weather forecasts over a period of 30 years: upper line = northern hemisphere, bottom line = southern hemisphere

(Source: ECMWF; 2013)

Subseasonal to seasonal prediction – research implementation plan (WWRP/WCRP/THORPEX; 2012) research plan, with attention for climate change, disaster risk management and food security (food supply and markets)

TIGGE – The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (THORPEX; 2010) short description of the TIGGE programme

User requirements specification for TIGGE archive functions and applications; Products based on TIGGE ensembles delivered to SWFDP users; Enhanced TIGGE archive functions available & demonstrated; data registered in GCI (GEOWOW; 2012) enhancing TIGGE and making the results accessible to users

TIGGE website http://www.ecmwf.int , data archive available at http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge/ 16

More information:

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Communication with stakeholders (1)

• High-impact weather: accuracy and timing of forecast should be balanced against size of avoidable loss;

• Communication of uncertainty: decision makers are very sensitive to false alarms and, at the same time, have a strong need for a high detection rate;

• Verification: verification results should be presented alongside the forecasts so that users can readily understand the quality of the forecast they are currently using.

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Communication with stakeholders (2)

• Better dissemination of forecast information to reach end users;

• Improved insight into how users do interpret and apply (or do not apply) forecast information;

• Integrate all stakeholders through interaction to produce suitable information tailored to the user needs;

• Facilitate quantification and evaluation of environmental, societal and economic benefits by the end user;

• Find the most cost effective combination of observing system, data assimilation, forecast and application procedures (Early Warning System) to improve high impact weather forecasts from the user perspective.

• Important for arranging cropping strategy and taking preventive action in potential flooding zones;

• Institutional mechanism for communicating climate information to various user departments and agencies is important;

• Forecasts should be released that match the lead-time requirements that are relevant to the end-users;

• Seasonal forecast products should reflect local climatic zones (rather than administrative regions);

• Governments should rethink the value of climate prediction in societal and economic development.

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Example: Monsoon prediction and decision making

• Getting free warning and hazard information;

• Receiving warning with sufficient lead time;

• Understanding the warning content;

• Believing the warning;

• Believing that the threat is real;

• Knowing when and what appropriate action to take;

• Being in a state of preparedness.

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Example: Requirements for an effective community response to warnings

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THORPEX decision support

A global interactive end- to-end forecasting system for the 21st century

Weather research in Europe – a THORPEX European plan (WMO; 2010) research plan for Europe and the Mediterranean, including section on decision making

WWRP/THORPEX African science plan (WMO; 2008) science plan for Africa, involving end-users

Global monsoon system – Research and forecast (World Scientific; 2011) series of articles on monsoon system research, only some chapters are freely available: heaviest precipitation (ch2), intraseasonal variability (ch11), diurnal cycle (ch15), Taiwan monsoon (ch18), modelling monsoons (ch25), atmospheric and oceanic weather (ch29), oceanic processes (ch30)

The global monsoon systems (WCRP) introduction to monsoon systems and research efforts

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More information:

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Changing weather patterns and climate

• Concerns about the impact of global climate change, in terms of weather and climate variability and associated effects such as sea-level rise;

• Science and technology of weather forecasting and climate prediction has been moving ahead rapidly;

• Need for reduction of the uncertainty about the relationship between weather and climate change, to predict changing weather patterns under different scenarios with the aim to improve decision-making for adaptation and mitigation.

Climate impacts on energy systems - Key issues for energy sector adaptation (World Bank; 2011) how the changing climate impacts energy systems, including need for improved observation networks in developing countries + case studies from Albania and Mexico

Frequently asked questions (IPCC; 2007) answers on frequently asked questions on climate change, including the relation between weather and climate change

Reviewing weather and climate services in the Pacific (SPREP; 2010) review of National Meteorological Services in the Pacific region (mainly small island states that are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise)

Climate and ocean: Variability, predictability and change (CLIVAR; 2014) brochure on the CLIVAR research programme

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More information:

2. Earth observation applications

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Earth observation for weather

Tropical cyclone Eline provoking flooding in Mozambique and Madagascar

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Earth observation contribution

• High-impact weather prediction (see also disaster management toolkit)

• Precipitation (and general weather) forecasting and monitoring

• Earth observation for weather (-indexed) insurance (in agriculture toolkit)

Weather products and services are linked to all GEO Societal Benefit Areas and provide input to products and services related to these SBAs

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Example high-impact weather prediction

Forecasting strike probabilities for Hurricane Ike by combining two TIGGE ensembles

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Example high-impact weather prediction (2)

Predicting flood alerts for Romania using TIGGE

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Example high-impact weather prediction (3)

Massive sandstorm blows off the

northwest African desert (February 26th,

2000)

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High-impact weather prediction

• Earth observation supports high-impact weather prediction for disaster management, water management, agriculture, energy, health, fisheries, aviation / transportation, etc.;

• Data series are available for historical and statistical analysis and analysis of whole regions;

• Earth observation facilitates shortening of the warning time and the communication and decision-making process;

• Cost estimate: on case-by-case basis, meteorological satellite imagery is usually free;

• Main challenges: cost, complexity, business model, knowledge transfer.

The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – European co-operation at its best (ECMWF; 2012) describes improvements in medium-range forecasts, with some examples of high-impact weather prediction

Weather satellites: Critical technology in an uncertain environment (Space Solutions; 2013) overview of weather satellites and their benefits (US perspective)

NOAA knows… Earth observation satellites (NOAA; 2011) factsheet on the use of earth observation for a ‘weather-ready nation’

Heaviest precipitation events, 1998 – 2007: a near global survey (Mapes; 2011) chapter 2 of ‘The global monsoon system’: Analysis of and attempts to understand extreme rainfall events over a 10-year period

Predicting and managing extreme weather events (NOAA; 2012) description of state-of-the-art in understanding and prediction extreme weather events and requirements for managing these events in the US

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Examples:

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Example precipitation monitoring and forecasting

Approximate location of monsoons across the globe

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Example precipitation monitoring and forecasting

(2)

GEONETCast coverage

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Example precipitation monitoring and forecasting

(3)

Precipitation calculated over central Africa for 23/02/2008 (Source: DevCoCast

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Precipitation monitoring and forecasting

• All aspects of the high-impact weather prediction apply;

• Services, such as GEONETCast (service that delivers meteorological products and services to end-users, among other services) make weather information accessible and affordable to all kinds of users;

• Cost estimate: on case-by-case basis, setting up a GEONETCast station costs about € 1,500, satellite imagery distributed through GEONETCast is free;

• Main challenges: acceptance, knowledge transfer.

Statements of guidance (WMO; 2012) on: global numerical weather prediction, high-resolution numerical weather prediction, nowcasting and very short range forecasting, seasonal to inter-annual forecasts, aeronautical meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, ocean applications, agricultural meteorology, hydrology, climate monitoring, climate applications and space weather

How Sentinels can support space-based weather predictions (Copernicus; 2013) description of support to weather forecasts through the Sentinel satellites programme

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Examples:

GEONETCast – DevCoCast application manual (DevCoCast; 2012) description of how to use the system and software with application examples on meteorology, agriculture and water quality

GEONETCast toolbox – installation, configuration and user guide of the GEONETCast toolbox plug-in for ILWIS http://52north.org/downloads/earth-observation/geonetcast/geonetcast-toolbox/52n-eo-gnc-toolbox-1-4

GEONETCast toolbox factsheet XML version 1.2 description of all the products and data that can be received and of the features of the GEONETCast toolbox

Demonstration of GEONETCast technology (Maathuis; 2015) presentation on the state-of-the-art of GEONETCast applications

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Examples (2):

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Growth potential for earth observation

• Mainly a public good, provided by national meteorological organizations (NMOs) and international specialized organizations;

• Research topics in meteorological phenomena require specialization and are best studied in an international context;

• Gains can be obtained by improving management of the whole communication chain between specialized meteorological agencies and beneficiaries (think of timely warning for flooding or agricultural management);

• The envisaged role for business (SMEs) consists primarily in the delivery of meteorological products and services of specialized agencies to end users and/or using these as input for other products or services (think of agriculture, water management, health, energy, etc.).

3. Business development

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Why is marketing / promotion of earth observation needed? • Public sector information (PSI)

• Externalities (environmental accounting & payment for ecosystem services)

• Global datasets, open access, data sharing, compatibility (GEO)

If public sector information is made available free-of-charge, demand will increase and, in the end, government revenue also, as companies will derive income from value-added products and services, and consequently pay more taxes (see figures in following slides).

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Supply & Demand Public Sector Information

Source: About GMES and data: geese and golden eggs (Sawyer, de Vries 2012)

http://vimeo.com/63079712

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Cost-benefit Public Sector Information

Source: About GMES and data: geese and golden eggs (Sawyer, de Vries 2012)

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Re-use of Public Sector Information

Source: About GMES and data: geese and golden eggs (Sawyer, de Vries 2012)

Most earth observation applications deal with so-called externalities, such as impact on the environment. It is difficult to capture these in terms of conventional cost-benefit models. To tackle this, the following framework for analysis of earth observation applications is developed:

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Framework for analysis

Step-by-step analysis of the benefits of earth observation (source: GEONetCab, 2013)

• Does the new application cause a paradigm shift?

• Is the current business or organization process improved?

• Does the application provide economic value that can be quantified?

• Is a clear measurable goal defined to which the earth observation application contributes?

• Is a future payment scheme or other economic mechanism foreseen in which the earth observation application fits?

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Key questions

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Assessment of geospatial solutions

Rating of characteristics of geospatial solutions: • fit-for-purpose • comparative advantage • complexity to user / ease- of-use • elegance • cost-benefit, • sustainability • resilience • reproduction capacity / flexibility • acceptance • level of knowledge transfer required • ethics, transparency, public accountability, objectivity & impartiality

Rating of business environment: • Willingness to pay (by clients) • Embedding (in organizational processes) • Openness (transparency and ease of doing business, access to markets) • Institutions (is the institutional environment conducive to doing business,

acceptance of new solutions?)

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Fit-for-purpose

An important, but often forgotten requirement: Does the product or service do what it is supposed to do to solve a certain problem? In other words: is it really a solution or just an attempt towards a solution? • Quantitative: not applicable

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on description of what the EO solution actually does

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Comparative advantage

What it does significantly better than other solutions to the same problem. For earth observation usually the comparative advantages of greater accuracy, better resolution in time and space, comprehensive overview of large areas and near real-time information provision are mentioned as comparative advantages. • Quantitative: calculation of degree in which the EO

solution is better than alternatives

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on listing of comparative advantages

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Complexity (to user) / ease-of-use

At all levels in the value chain the users (professionals and end-users) are able to work with the product or service. • Quantitative: not applicable

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on user testimonials and user surveys

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Elegance

Once you get the idea behind this product or service, you want to be part of the community that uses it. This sense of belonging facilitates the formation of user groups that provide valuable feedback. • Quantitative: none, or it should be the size of the user

community

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on user testimonials and user surveys

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Cost-benefit

The cost-benefit of the product or service is quantified and sufficiently attractive, also in the long-term. • Quantitative: cost-benefit calculation

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on quantitative assessment

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Sustainability

The product or service can be delivered when it is needed. There is a long-term perspective that guarantees delivery.

Sustainability concerns the following aspects: Long-term data availability

Availability of finance/funds to provide the solution continuously for present and future use

Long-term institutional / governmental interest and support

Long-term user interest for a solution that addresses real needs

• Quantitative: not applicable

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on sensitivity analysis of the EO solution

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Resilience

In case of extremes or breakdown in the value chain, the product or service can still be delivered at an acceptable level. Alternatives (plan B) are available (and developed). • Quantitative: cost-benefit calculation of plan B

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on risk analysis of the EO solution

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Reproduction capacity / flexibility

The product or service can be easily applied or adapted for use in another region or another situation, while still providing the solution without (too much) extra cost. • Quantitative: calculation of reproduction costs for

application in other regions or situations; measurement of spreading of actual use

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on quantitative assessment and description of EO solution

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Acceptance

The users intuitively get what the product or service is about and are interested. They accept it as a solution to their problem. • Quantitative: none, or survey results about acceptance.

After introduction of the solution: number of clients and/or users

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on user testimonials and user surveys

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Level of knowledge transfer required

The training requirements for professionals and other users along the value chain are clear and associated costs and efforts are acceptable. • Quantitative: cost and time required to get the users at

the desired knowledge and skill level

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on knowledge transfer plans and evaluation of training activities

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Ethics, transparency, public accountability,

objectivity & impartiality Application of Earth observation increases the level of objectivity and impartiality in decision-making processes, including conflict resolution. The application improves transparency and public accountability. It raises no ethical issues or if it does, as in the case of privacy concerns, these are resolved in a satisfactory way for all parties concerned. • Quantitative: not applicable

• Qualitative (on scale of 1 to 5): based on user testimonials and user surveys

Several attempts have been made to introduce environmental accounting and to enlarge the sphere of the conventional economy to include and quantify impact on ecosystems. The following slides give some examples:

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Environmental accounting & payment for ecosystem services • SEEA:

System of Environmental-Economic Accounts (EC, FAO, IMF, OECD, UN, WB )

• WAVES: Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services (global partnership, led by World Bank)

• TEEB: The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (group led by UNEP)

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SEEA Conceptual Framework

Source: SEEA conceptual framework report (EC, FAO, IMF, OECD, UN, WB 2012)

For earth observation the work of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is essential to achieve the goal of a Global Earth Observations System of Systems (GEOSS), resulting in the shared GEO common infrastructure (GCI):

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Group on Earth Observations

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Marketing elements

• Customer value propositions

• Crossing the technology chasm

• Creating shared value

• Promotion tools

Customer value propositions capture the unique value of a product or services as perceived and appreciated by the customer. Interestingly, they can differ completely from the features that the provider considers most important:

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Customer Value Propositions

Source: Customer value propositions in business markets (HBR 2006)

VALUE PROPOSITION

ALL BENEFITS FAVOURABLE POINTS OF DIFFERENCE

RESONATING FOCUS

Consists of: All benefits customers receive from a market offering

All favourable points of difference a market offering has relative to the next best alternative

The one or two points of difference whose improvement will deliver the greatest value to the customer

Answers the customer question:

“Why should our firm purchase your offering?”

“Why should our firm purchase your offering instead of your competitor’s?”

“What is most worthwhile for our firm to keep in mind about your offering?”

Requires: Knowledge of own market offering

Knowledge of own market offering and next best alternative

Knowledge of how own marketing offering delivers value to customers, compared with next best alternative

Has the potential pitfall:

Benefit assertion

Value presumption Requires customer value research

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Buyer behaviour & motivation

Source: Rethinking the sales force (Rackham, de Vincentis 1999)

Type Buyer behaviour Motivation

Transactional sales

Intrinsic value buyers: “keep it cheap and easy to do business”

Understands the product Perceives it as substitutable Cost focus Resents time ‘wasted’ with sales people

Consultative sales

Extrinsic value buyers: “I don’t know the answer: help me analyse and solve the issue

Focus on how the product is used Interested in solutions and applications Values advice and help Needs the sales person

Even when customer value propositions are well captured and formulated, introduction of solutions that involve new technology will have to overcome some hurdles. This is called “crossing the technology chasm”:

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Crossing the technology chasm

Source: Crossing the chasm (Moore 1991)

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Crossing the technology chasm

• Most clients of EO products and services belong to the early and late majority,

• They are pragmatists and are not prepared or willing to take substantial risk: the solution should work and be reliable.

• Once convinced, the pragmatists will be long-term clients.

Source: Crossing the chasm (Moore 1991)

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More information:

Creating & delivering your value proposition – managing customer experience for profit (Barnes, Blake, Pinder; 2009)

Customer value propositions in business markets (Anderson, Narus, van Rossum [Harvard Business Review]; 2006)

Rethinking the sales force: refining selling to create and capture customer value (Rackham, de Vicentis; 1999)

Crossing the chasm – marketing and selling high-tech products to mainstream customers (Moore; 1991)

Creating shared value is a key element of successful implementation of earth observation solutions. To achieve this, in most cases earth observation applications have to be integrated into more general (business or organizational) processes:

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Create shared value

Involves cooperation between:

• Public sector

• Private sector

• Social sector

Opportunity for earth observation (integrated) solutions:

• Integrate EO in general business / organizational process

• Integrate different EO (and GIS and navigation) functionalities

Based on all considerations dealt with in the previous slides, there are some practical approaches that can be applied in combination to promote earth observation applications:

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Tools for earth observation marketing:

Source: Marketing earth observation products and services (Noort 2013)

• Success stories (in non-technical language, feasible, replication capacity, sustainable)

• Marketing toolkits (international trends, earth observation examples, references)

• Pilot projects, innovation funds, quick-wins (demonstration that EO actually works)

• Promotion outside EO community (fairs, seminars, lunch-bag meetings, magazines)

• Resource facilities for reference and capacity building (distributed, but connected, in different languages)

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Business elements

Business elements:

• Proposal writing

• Business procedures

Proposal writing is an art in itself. During the GEONetCab and EOPOWER projects templates have been developed for writing successful proposals:

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Proposal outline

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(more detailed version in separate document, see www.eopower.eu or www.hcpinternational.com)

1. Introduction / relevance

2. Objective(s)

3. Activities

4. Output

5. Management & evaluation

6. Risk assessment

7. Time schedule

8. Budget

Annexes

Other guides that may be useful:

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• Civicus: writing a funding proposal

• Michigan State University: guide for writing a funding proposal

• ESRI: writing a competitive GRANT application

• REC: project proposal writing

If you run a company, compete for assignments and manage projects, a structured approach towards responsibilities, tasks, implementation and documentation is needed. The following business procedures may be helpful:

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Business procedures

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(more detailed version in separate document, see www.eopower.eu or www.hcpinternational.com)

1. On acquisition

2. On offers

3. On negotiation

4. On contracts

5. On project management

6. On travel & deployment

7. On deficiencies & complaints

8. On internal organization

9. On finance

Again:

• SHARED PROBLEM • SHARED LANGUAGE • SHARED SOLUTION

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4. Capacity Building

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General

Marketing is promotion + capacity building.

Especially for the introduction of new technologies capacity building is important at all levels.

Capacity building is the instrument to increase self-sufficiency and make solutions work.

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General references for capacity building, open data and success stories

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GEO Portal: www.earthobservations.org

Capacity building resource facility www.geocab.org

compilation of tutorials, references, open-source software, etc.

Satellites going local: share good practice (Eurisy handbooks) www.eurisy.org

Earth observation for green growth (ESA; 2013)

General references for capacity building, open data (2)

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Bringing GEOSS services into practice: how to use data from the GEO portal and how to provide input www.envirogrids.net

Science education through earth observation for high schools: basic tutorials on all kind of subjects www.seos-project.eu

Copernicus briefs: information on satellite applications for different topics http://www.copernicus.eu/main/copernicus-briefs

MetEd: tutorials and courses on meteorology and related subjects https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

More references open data Open data for sustainable development (World Bank; 2015) description of the benefits of open data for a wide range of development goals, including the SDGs http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdocs/publicdoc/2015/8/904051440717425994/Open-Data-for-Sustainable-development-Final-New.pdf

Terms and conditions for the use and distribution of Sentinel data (European Parliament and European Commission; 2014) standard stipulations related to free and open access to Sentinel data http://www.demarine.de/lr/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=c5067655-b7ad-4d71-b07b-6111808f4abd&groupId=13521

Towards a thriving data-driven economy (European Commission; 2014) policy document on the use of (open) data for a knowledge economy and society http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/newsroom/cf/dae/document.cfm?doc_id=6210

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Capacity building resources for weather: User guide to ECMWF forecast products (ECMWF; 2011) overview of models, forecasts and products

Numerical Weather Prediction (Colorado State) lecture in presentation form on numerical weather prediction

Link to UCAR weather tutorial (2003) -> 10 lectures in presentation form: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/general/weathercourse/

Link to NavCanada local area weather manuals (2000) general introduction on meteorology (for aviation) + description of weather phenomena for different regions in Canada: http://www.navcanada.ca/EN/media/Publications/Forms/AllItems.aspx?RootFolder=%2fEN%2fmedia%2fPublications%2fLocal%20Area%20Weather%20Manuals&FolderCTID=0x01200021B720762C66F0408AF378DB2B47FAAF

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Capacity building resources for weather (2): Remote sensing applications – Chapter 10: atmosphere (NRSC; 2010)

Remote sensing applications – Chapter 11: cyclones (NRSC; 2010)

GEONETCast – DevCoCast application manual (DevCoCast: 2012) description of how to use the system and software with application examples on meteorology, agriculture and water quality

From cloud top temperature to rainfall Blending TRMM and MSG (ITC; 2015) 3-day EOPOWER (self-study) course for professionals http://menhir.itc.utwente.nl:5000/fbsharing/KGKOZXKU/

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Further details:

Contact: Mark Noort m.noort@hcpinternational.com

www.eopower.eu

www.hcpinternational.com

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