early warning and response analysis october,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Released on October, 2015
Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA
This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected]
Early Warning and Response Analysis
October, 2015
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Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA
2 Early Warning and Response Analysis October, 2015
Contents
Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... 3
Early Warning and Response Summary for August, 2015 ................................................................................ 4
Weather Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 5
Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 7
Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
file:///F:/Application%20Data/Microsoft/Users/Chev/Documents/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/December%202011/Stefano/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/Sep%202011/EWR%20Analysis%20September%202011.doc%23_Toc303958565file:///F:/Application%20Data/Microsoft/Users/Chev/Documents/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/December%202011/Stefano/Documents/Etiopia/EW%20and%20Markets/Bulletins/Issues/Monthly/2011%20issues/Sep%202011/EWR%20Analysis%20September%202011.doc%23_Toc303958565
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ACRONYMS:
CHD: Child Health Day
CPI: Consumer Price Index
CSA: Central Statistical Agency
DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food
Security Sector
EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research
Institute
ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health
GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition
HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund
IMC: International Medical Corps
ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone
MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition
NMA: National Meteorological Agency
OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program
PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women
SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition
TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit
TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food
TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program
WFP: World Food Programme
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EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY
In relation to the existing El Nino phenomenon occasional fall is anticipated over some areas
of northern, northeastern, eastern and central parts of Ethiopia. As a result flash flood and
overflow of rivers is likely in some areas the aforementioned areas, thus the concerned
personnel should take appropriate measures ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of
flood hazard.
Moreover the occasional rainfall would have negative impact on harvest and post harvest
activities in some lowland areas of Meher growing areas where the activities are normally
carried out earlier as compared to that of the highland areas. Thus, farmers are advised to
take precaution ahead of time in areas where crops are ready for harvest to minimize the
effect of the expected adverse weather condition.
The expected normal rainfall over south and southeastern lowlands would favor the
availability of pasture and drinking water over pastoral areas.
Nationally, a total of 219,617 SAM cases were treated in TFP program between Januarys to
August 2015 and the August 2015 SAM cases increased by 32.5 percent from 32,304 in July
to 42,803 SAM cases in August 2015.
In Oromiya, the August 2015 TFP admissions dramatically increased by 67.5 percent from
16,667 caseload in July 2015 to 27,929 in August 2015 and about 63 percent of these cases
were reported from West Hararghe, East Hararghe and Arsi zones of the region.
Inadequate availability of TSF resource from WFP is delaying timely implementation/
The evolving nutrition situations in the regions require close monitoring with special
attention to Oromiya and Afar regions.
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September 2015 weather conditions
Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of
September 2015
Source: NMA
During the month of September 2015, most parts
of Kiremt rain benefiting areas received falls
ranging from 25 - 405 mm of rainfall. Some areas
of western Oromiya and central parts of
Benishangul Gumuz exhibited falls greater than
300mm. Most parts of eastern half of
Benishangul Gumuz and parts of western
Oromiya experienced falls ranging from 200-
300mm. Western half of Tigray, northwestern
and southeastern Amhara, southwestern parts of
Benishangul Gumuz, parts of western, central
and eastern Oromiya, northeastern parts of
Gambela and northern parts of SNNPR received
falls ranging from 100 - 200mm. Central Tigray,
central and northeastern parts of Amhara, a few
areas of western and southern margin of Afar,
parts of central and eastern Oromiya, parts of
SNNPR, parts of northern Somali and parts
eastern half of Gambela experienced falls ranging
from 50 - 100mm. most parts of western and
southern half of Afar, northern Somali, some
areas of eastern and southern Tigray, parts of
central Amhara, northern parts of southern
Oromiya, parts of southern SNNPR, parts of
northern, central and
Southwestern Somali received falls ranging from
25 - 50mm. Most parts of Tigray, northeastern
Afar, southern parts of SNNPR, south and
southeastern parts of Somali and southern
Oromiya experienced falls less than 25mm.
Southeastern parts of Somali and southern
Oromiya experienced falls less than 25mm.
Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution
for September 2015
Source: NMA
As indicated in map 2, parts of western,
northeastern, eastern margin, southern and
southeastern parts of Ethiopia exhibited below
normal rainfall while the remaining parts of the
country received normal to above normal rainfall.
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Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the
month of September 2015
Source: NMA
Pocket areas of western Oromiya, northeastern
SNNPR, parts of western Amhara received
rainfall in greater than 25 rainy days. Eastern half
of Benishangul Gumuz, western parts of central
Oromiya, northeastern SNNPR and parts of
western Amhara received rainfall in 20 - 25 rainy
days. Northeastern Gambella, most parts of
western half of Benishangul Gumuz, central and
northwestern Amhara, western Tigray, parts of
central SNNPR and parts of eastern Oromiya
received rainfall in 10 - 15 rainy days. Central
parts of Tigray, central and southeastern Amhara,
parts of central and eastern Oromiya, parts of
eastern half of Gambela and parts of central
SNNPR received rainfall in 10 - 15 rainy days.
Western half of Gambela, parts of southern
SNNPR, southeastern Oromiya, central and
northern Somali, northeastern Amhara, western
and southern Afar and southern parts of eastern
Tigray received rainfall in 5 - 10 rainy days.
Weather outlook and possible impact for the
coming month/October 1-31, 2015
Normally during the month of October, in relation
to the extension of southward retreat of the Inter
Tropical Convergent Zone (ITCZ), the rain
producing systems lose their strength from the
northern parts of Meher producing areas of the
country while the southern and southeastern parts
of the country will continue to get their second
seasonal rainfall. Nevertheless in relation to the
existing El Nino phenomenon occasional fall is
anticipated over some areas of northern,
northeastern, eastern and central parts of Ethiopia.
As a result flash flood and overflow of rivers is
likely in some areas the aforementioned areas,
thus the concerned personnel should take
appropriate measures ahead of time in order to
mitigate the effect of flood hazard. Moreover the
occasional rainfall would have negative impact on
harvest and post harvest activities in some
lowland areas of Meher growing areas where the
activities are normally carried out earlier as
compared to that of the highland areas. Thus,
farmers are advised to take precaution ahead of
time in areas where crops are ready for harvest to
minimize the effect of the expected adverse
weather condition.
During the coming month of October 2015 dry,
sunny and windy Bega weather situation expected
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to prevail over the northern half of the country,
however due to the anticipated strong weather
systems some areas of northern, northeastern,
eastern and central parts of the country will have
unseasonal rainfall which is different from the
normal condition. Thus normal to above normal
rainfall is expected over most parts of Tigray,
Amhara, (the surrounding areas of Bahir Dar, East
and West Gojam Zones, North and South Gonder,
Waghemra, North and South Wollo and Oromiya
Zone of Amhara), Afar (Zone 3 and 5),
Benishangul Gumuz(the whole Zones),
Gambela(the whole Zones), Oromiya Region(Illu
Ababora, Jima, East and West Welega, Horgudru
Wellega, the whole Shewa Zones of Oromiya,
Arsi, Bale, West and East Harargie, Harari, Dire
Dawa, Borena and Guji), Addis Ababa, SNNPR
(Kefa and Bench Maji) and Somali (City, Jijiga,
Fik, Deghabur, Liben, Afder, Gode, Korahe and
Warder Zones). Therefore, the expected normal
rainfall over south and southeastern lowlands
would favor the availability of pasture and
drinking water over pastoral areas. Near normal
rainfall is expected over SNNPR (Wolayta,
Guragie, Hadiya, South Omo, Sidama, Gamo
Gofa and Segen Peoples).
NUTRITION
Nutrition situation: The emergency nutrition
situation is routinely monitored at regional and
national levels by the ENCU of the DRMFSS by
collecting and analyzing different sources of
nutrition information such as TFP admissions and
ad hoc surveys.
Nationally, between Januarys to August 2015, a
total of 219,617 SAM cases with an average of
83.2 percent reporting rate were treated with
severe acute malnutrition in the country and it is
almost equal to the number of SAM cases treated
during the same time of 2011. However, the
number of SAM cases treated in the first eight
months of 2015 is higher by 6.5, 19.6 and 27.1
percent compared with the same reporting period
of 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively(fig.1).
Based on August 2015 monthly TFP reports from
the six regions (Afar, Amhara, Oromiya, Somali,
SNNPR and Tigray), SAM cases increased
significantly (by 32.5 percent) from 32,304
caseloads in July with 82.4 percent reporting rate
to 42,803 in August 2015 with 83.2 percent
reporting rates. Out of the 42,803 SAM cases
treated in August nationally, about 65 percent of
the cases were reported from Oromiya region.
Regional level, TFP admission increased in
Oromiya, Afar, Tigray and Amhara in the month
of August by 67.5%, 26.4%, 9% and 5.6%
respectively as compared with the July 2015
admission.
In Oromiya, the August 2015 TFP admissions
dramatically increased by 67.5 percent from
16,667 caseload in July 2015 with 82.4 percent
reporting rate to 27,929 in August 2015 with 88.5
percent reporting rate. About 63 percent of the
SAM cases treated in August in the region were
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reported from three zones namely West Hararghe,
East Hararghe and Arsi zones. The August 2015
TFP admission increased by 131 percent
compared to the same time of 2014(i.e from
12,080 in August 2014 to 27929 in August 2015).
The situation is rapidly evolving in many woredas
of East and West Hararghe, Arsi, Bale, and West
Arsi zones of the region and requires special
attention. The increases were mainly associated
with the August active screening and referral
linkages at kebele level, poor food availability at
household level and also water shortages, etc.
Emergency responses are ongoing but it needs to
be strengthened and integrated further to bring
better impacts.
In Afar region, the August TFP admission
increased by 26.4 percent from 2074 cases in
July 2015 with 74 percent reporting rate to 2622
in August 2015 with 84.8 percent reporting rate.
April – August 2015 TFP data trend in Afar
region indicates that new admissions are relatively
increasing continuously from 1660 with 83.8%
reporting rate in May
In Amhara, the TFP admission has shown slight
increase in August (i.e. increased by 5.6 percent
from 3322 in July 2015 to 3508 in August 2015
with over 92 percent reporting rate in both months
and significant increases were reported from some
woredas Wag Himra, North Gonder, South
Gonder, North wollo, and South Wollo zones.
Slight increase of TFP admission also reported in
Tigray.
In SNNPR, the TFP admission has shown a
decreasing trend both in July and August 2015.
Availability of green maize, haricot beans,
cabbage and other short maturing crops in some of
the zones and also on-going interventions might
have contributed for the reduction in TFP
admission in both months. However, this year
admission is relatively higher as compared with
last two years and it is almost similar with that of
2012.
Challenges:
Delay in screening report in SNNPR,
Tigray, oromiya and Amhara (currently
on going) hindered the timely
commencement of targeted supplementary
feeding intervention in priority one
woredas. Additionally, inadequate
availability of TSF resource from WFP is
also delaying timely implementation.
Low TFP reporting rate from Somali
hindered national and regional level trend
analysis.
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10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Evolution of the number of admissions in CMAM in Ethiopia/ MOH-ENCU database/ Jan 2011 to August 2015
Fig.1 TFP admission trend from 2011- August 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Rep
ort
ing R
ate
Ad
mis
sio
n
ADMISSION Nb of TFP Mortality rate % Defaulter rate% Report completion rate %
Fig 2. Afar TFP Admission trend
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