EARLY WARNING ACTIVITIESIN

ETHIOPIAN

By Getachew Abate

Early Warning Department,Disaster Prevention & Preparedness Commission

June 2003,

Presentation Outline

1.Some basic facts2.Brief history of disaster and disaster

management activities3.Current disaster management policy4.Early warning activities5.Major limitations6.Conclusion

1. Some Basic FactsPopulation:� Ethiopia is the third most populous country

in Africa with a population of over 60 million and its economy is mainly dependent of both crop and livestock production.

1Region A - Single maxima.The wet period decrease northwarA1 June/July� August/SeptemberA2 April/May � October/NovemberA3February/March� October/November

2Region B - Double maxima Type 1Small peak in April and maximum peak in August

3Region C - Double maxima Type 2Peaks in the month of April and October

1. Some Basic Facts�

Rainfall Regimes in Ethiopia:The boundaries are approximate and unofficial

1. Some Basic Facts�

Seasons Based on Rainfall Patterns:� Region A has only one wet and one dry season� Region B has three seasons called

� Bega October � January � Belg February �May� Kiremt June � September

� Region C has double wet and dry seasons � Wet seasons: March-May and September-November� Dry seasons: December-February and June-August

1. Some Basic Facts�

Production Systems:� Cereal crop production� Cash crop production� Root crop production� Agro-pastoral� Pure pastoral

1. Some Basic Facts�

Crop & Livestock Dependant Population in Ethiopia

Crop

Livestock

Urban

75%

15%10%

1. Some Basic Facts�

Crop Production:� The country has two production seasons,

Belg and Meher. Meher season crop production contributes about 93% of the annual notional average. The remaining 7% is from the Belg season

1. Some Basic Facts�

2. Brief History of Disaster and Disaster Management Activities

� Frequently occurring types of disaster in Ethiopia are drought, flood, landslide, thunderstorms accompanied by lightening and hail, frost, forest fire, and earthquake. The first two are the most common

� Associated with adverse weather conditions outbreaks of locusts (on crops), tsetse fly (a vector for traipanosomiasis), and human disease out break like yellow fever, malaria, meningitis were also observed

2. Brief History�

� History of drought and famine occurrence in Ethiopia dates back to 253-242 BC. However, the frequency of drought occurrence and its spatial coverage is tremendously increasing, particularly as of 1972.

� There were no any disaster management systems before 1973/74 drought that have claimed for the loss of about 200,000 peoples� lives in central and northern highlands of the country

2. Brief History�

� In 1975 Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) has established with a mission of assisting victims of natural disasters with provision of emergency assistance including food, shelters and medicaments.

� At this stage there was no regular monitoring, but Disaster Area Assessments

� At the end of 1975 an inter-ministerial Technical Working Group (TWG) was called-together under the Commission

2. Brief History�

� In 1977 the Commission reformed with a new visions and missions. Besides providing the food, shelter and medicaments to the disaster affected population the mandate of the Commission include the rehabilitation programme by involving directly in developmental activities like land conservation, mechanized farming, and resettlement.

� TWG gradually dissolved and Early Warning and Planning Service under RRC took over the full operation of the system.

2. Brief History�

� In 1994 the Commission has renamed and reformed as Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) with more additional mandates but excluding it from direct involvement in developmental activities. On top of providing emergency assistance whenever disaster occurred, the commission has authorized to work towards effective disaster preparedness planning.

3. Disaster Management Policy

Principles of NPDPM� The community shall play an active role in

planning, programming, implementation and evaluation of relief related issues

� The urgency of different measures shall be carefully assessed and resources shall be deployed for the more urgent measures of the moment.

3. Disaster Management Policy�

� There shall be clearly defined focal point of action for different tasks at different level, and centers of coordination shall be properly empowered.

� Relief must be address to the most needy at all time and no free distribution of aids for able-bodied of affected population

3. Disaster Management Policy�

Objectives of NPDPM1. to reduce/avoid human, physical and economic

losses suffered by individuals, society, and the country at large

2. to reinforce sustainable economic growth for self-reliance and speedy post-disaster recovery

3. to motivate the society towards active involvement in any developmental endeavors through best use of natural resources in order to eliminate the root causes of disaster and to protect and safeguard the human dignity

National Disaster Prevention And Preparedness Committee(DPPC as secretariat)

National Early Warning System

National Crisis Management Group

Regional Disaster Prevention And Preparedness Committee

(DPPB as secretariat)

Regional Early Warning System

Regional Crisis Management Group

Zonal Disaster Prevention And Preparedness Committee(DPP Desk as Secretariat)

Zonal Early Warning System

Zonal Crisis Management Group

Woreda Disaster Prevention And Preparedness Committee

(WAO as secretariat)

Woreda Early Warning System at

MoA

Development Agents (DA)

Community

NGO National Office

NGO Regional Office

NGO Zonal Office

NGO at Woreda

1. Early Warning (EW)2 Standing Preparedness

(SP)3 National Disaster

Prevention and Preparedness Fund (NDPPF)

4 Relief Planning (RP)5 Line Departments (LD)6 Non Governmental

Organizations (NGOs)7 Food Delivery (FD)8 Gratuitous Relief (GR)9 Employment Generation

Scheme (EGS)10. Agricultural Support (AS)11. Livestock Preservation

(LP)12. Supplementary Nutrition

(SN)13. Drinking Water (DW)14. Health Services (HS)15. Others Activities like

transport and training (OA)

NPDPM

3NDPPF

2SP

14HS

12SN

11LP

4RP

5LD

7FD

9EGS

15OA

8GR

10AS

1EW

6NGOs

13DW

Implementation Modalities of NPDPM

4. Early Warning Activities

� Immediate Objective -(Relief Oriented) � Identity surplus and deficit producing areas � Detect the likelihood of a disaster as early as

possible� Provide advice and warning about impending

disaster in a given area. So that the necessary preparedness measures can be taken

� Provide estimate of beneficiaries of food shortage and the amount and types of emergency assistances required

4. Early Warning�

� Regularly assess nutritional status of people in most seriously affected areas

� Follow up the food security situation through regular monitoring systems already established and provide timely regular informative reports to the decision makers of different levels of different partner agencies

� Conduct disaster area assessments whenever disasters occurred

4. Early Warning�

� Long Term Objectives- (Development oriented)� Identify root causes of disaster� Initiate developmental activities for the

elimination of the root causes of the disasters.

4. Early Warning�

� Information Flow� Line departments of different level, local

NGOs, individual farmers, elders, and religion leaders of the community are our key informants. The hard copies of information have been sent to EWD

� Currently the Commission has already started to connect Regions and Zones to Federal DPPC by Wide Area Network (WAN) to enter data at local level for quick information exchange

4. Early Warning�

� Early Warning Indicators1. Early indicators− Rainfall− Agricultural activities and crop performance− Agricultural inputs− Rangeland (pasture) condition− Water condition− Livestock condition− Market condition− Off farm activities

4. Early Warning�

2. Stress indicators� Change in consumption habit (diet change,

use of toxic foods)� Seeking for grain or food item loans � Unusual increase in the number of people

failing to onset their debts.� Unusual labor sales

4. Early Warning�

3. Late or outcome indicators� Appearance of unusual amount of capital or

production goods for sale� Sales of utensil, farm equipment, productive

livestock,, etc.� Farm land pledging or sale� Increase in unusual social disturbance� Increase in the level of malnutrition� Mass migration� Significant increase in mortality

4. Early Warning�

Products of Early Warning System� Monthly Report� Seasonal Report (Belg, Meher, Pastoral area)� Annual Report� Special Report� Nutrition Report� Disaster Assessment Report

4. Early Warning�Main Contents of Early Warning Products

� Current status of food security� Areas likely to face food shortages � Estimates of affected group of people� Estimates of number of people eligible for relief

assistance and those needing closer monitoring� Estimates of food and non-food relief requirements� Estimates of the likely duration of relief

intervention� Adequate justification for the needs� Status report on the progress of relief intervention

4. Early Warning�

Users of Early Warning Products� The Communities� Government officers at different administration

level� Donor community and international

humanitarian organizations

4. Early Warning�

Major Partner Agencies � Governmental organizations:

� MoA, MoWR, NMSA, MOH, EMA, CSA� Non-governmental organizations

WFP/VAMUN/EUEUNICEFFAODLCOEASC/UKUSAID/FEWSUSAID

EC/LFSUCIDADFIDCARE EthiopiaCRSWVI/ELWFCRDAERCS

4. Early Warning�

Role of Partners in Early Warning and Disaster Management Activities� Monitoring current situations in their operational areas� Reporting to DPPC and other relevant organizations� Participating in regular meetings of EWWG� Participate in DPPC led multi-agency Belg, Meher

and/or Pastoral area assessments� Relief resource mobilization� Monitoring and coordinating relief food delivery and

distributions� Capacitating DPPC/B/D through technical and

equipment supports

4. Early Warning�

Regular Monitoring Systems� Physical Process

� Collecting baseline data in every 5 years� Collecting current information on monthly basis � Analyzing the information (LFSM, PMM)� Generate vulnerability indices that indicate the

current situation is improved, the same as the normal, or worse than normal

� Identifying areas that has repetitive records of worse situation

� Conduct an assessment to made a detailed verification

4. Early Warning�

� Short Term Vulnerability Model (STVM)� The lowest monitoring unit in the model is Agro-

ecology� It is an income account model� It uses qualitative approach of data analysis.� The primary inputs of the model are baseline data

and current information of food security indicators. The information is mostly in the form of qualitative ratings that ranges from 1 to 5

� The final out put of the model is the Current Vulnerability Ratings (VR) that ranges from 1 to 5

Thought process of

STVM

4. Early Warning�

� Chronic Food Insecurity� Table showing number of people who were in need of assistance from 1966-2003

Number of Population in Need for Relief Food Assisstance(1966-2003)

0100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000100000001100000012000000

1974

1975

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Nee

dy P

eopl

e

4. Early Warning�

� In the years 1999 DPPC, WFP, USAID/FEWS and other partners worked out on indices that can indicate the chronic food insecurity

Proxy indicates used

.Staple crop production per capita (Coping indicator)

.Livestock asset per capita (Coping indicator)

.Pasture quality and quantity (Coping indicator)

.Road accessibility (Coping indicator)

.Average price of maize and sorghum (Risk indicator)

.Past years assessed needs (Risk indicator)

.Drought risk (Risk indicator)

.Variability in staple crop production (Risk indicator)

.Probability of rainfall shocks; extreme dry, extreme wet (Risk indicator)

4. Early Warning�

CURRENT VULNERABILITY RATING

5

4

3

2

1

54321

Acute andchronic

Acute but Not chronic

Not acute butChronic

Not Acute and not chronic

CH

RO

NIC

VU

LNER

AB

ILIT

Y R

ATI

NG

Eligibility Matrix

5. Major Limitations

� Poor timeliness of information flow � Poor quality of information obtained� Low technical capacity at all levels� Low financial and relevant equipment

availability

6. Conclusion� Rural population in Ethiopia is not yet self sufficient &

capable to withstand the impacts of natural hazards� Recurrent drought depletes different economic asset and

creates weak resilience against disaster impact year after year.

�� DevelopmentDevelopment is the only solution for minimizing/ avoiding hunger in Ethiopia.

� Current strategies for disaster management & development activities in the country are encouraging.

� Therefore, the international community needs to reinforce developmental endeavors through financial and technical supports with more emphasis than as they did for pledging relief food in the past.

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