EARLY CHILDHOOD TEACHER WORKFORCE STUDY:SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN NEW SOUTH WALES

Toni G. CrossGeorge F. LewisMacquarie UniversityInstitute of Early Childhood

Paper presented at the Australian Association for Research in Education Annual Conference, University of Newcastle, November 27-December 1, 1994

ABSTRACTToni G. Cross and George F. Lewis Macquarie University Institute of Early Childhood

The Early Childhood Work Force Study aimed to quantify the extent of shortages of early childhood teachers in NSW, to identify patterns in relation to different sectors of the industry and different geographical locations, profile the work force participation of early childhood teachers in New South Wales, , and recommend strategies for establishing a balance between projected supply and demand estimates. The research estimates supply and demand for trained early childhood teachers in different types of services and in different geographical locations based on a number of projections for the future expansion in centre-based places for children in the preschool age range. The core data of the study came from three surveys of centres, teachers, and graduates and was supplemented by a range of other data sources. Demand estimates took into account teachers employed above the NSW Regulations for Centre-based Services requirements, teacher turnover, anticipated expansion in community-based child care services, and in work-based and commercial (for-profit) services, and in school sector employment Supply estimates included the annual output of pre-service early childhood graduates and rates of re-entry to the preschool and long day care work force in NSW. Demand and supply estimates were projected on the basis of a series of different assump- tions about the expansion of children's services in NSW which ranged from a status quo assumption to full

implementation of recent Commonwealth child care strategies. Limitations on the estimates of supply and demand are discussed and recommendations for relating supply to demand are canvassed.

EARLY CHILDHOOD TEACHER WORK FORCE STUDY:SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN NEW SOUTH WALESToni G. Cross and George F. LewisMacquarie University Institute of Early Childhood

The qualifications of staff have consistently been identified as the most significant factor in determining the quality of early childhood programs. Whitebook, Howes, & Phillips (1990) found that, while spending more years in child care was not a good indication of

teacher behaviour, formal education and specialised child-related preparation was. In New South Wales, fully qualified early childhood teachers are employed in various children's services in teaching positions. These include long day care services, preschools and kindergartens, and Years K to 6 in State, Catholic and Independent schools. Others are employed in the children's services industry, but in non-teaching positions, such as non-teaching directors of centres, Children's Services Advisers with the NSW Department of Community Services, and in advisory and coordinating positions with local government, the major employer bodies, or family day care schemes. Early childhood teacher education courses now established in most New South Wales universities (and in the University of Canberra) prepare staff for children's services with such qualifications. During the period 1983-1992, the Commonwealth Government increased funding for child care places. The number of child care places has risen from 46,000 in 1983 to almost 200,00 and is still increasing at a rapid rate. Under the terms of the New South Wales Centre- based Child Care Regulations, this growth is reflected in an increasing demand for qualified early childhood teachers to provide staff for the new centres. However, the increase in demand for early childhood teachers has not necessarily been matched by a corresponding increase in supply. In 1986, a report by the Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils (WSROC), Looking towards a crisis in child care centres staffing in Western Sydney, pointed to shortages of trained staff and to difficulties the Western Suburbs were experiencing in attracting early childhood teachers to staff many centres. Following the WSROC report, the Institute of Early Childhood Studies, then part of Sydney College of Advanced Education, prepared an analysis of the supply and demand for early childhood teachers in New South Wales for the NSW Higher Education Board in 1987 and projected a substantial shortfall of trained staff in the following years 1988-1990 (IECS, 1987). In 1989, the Carrick Committee Report (Report of the Committee of Review of NSW Schools, 1989), concluded that there were insufficient qualified early childhood teachers and recommended an increase in the number of early childhood teachers entering teacher preparation

courses. The New South Wales State Government responded with initiatives in the teacher education sector to meet the shortfall. However, the effect of increases in teacher education students on the supply of Early Childhood teachers was initially delayed since it takes at least three years to produce an Early Childhood graduate. Consequently, reports of shortages of early childhood trained teachers continued in New South Wales. As a result, in 1990 the NSW Ministry of Education, Youth, and Women's Affairs in its report, Teacher education: Directions and Strategies (1990) acknowledged a continuing shortage of qualified early childhood teachers. In 1992 a labour market assessment for early childhood teachers in New South Wales conducted by the Federal Department of Employment, Education, and Training (Turnbull, 1992) pointed to the absence of any detailed studies in the area and concluded on the basis of qualitative data that minor shortages in the area still existed and would continue. The NSW Ministry for Education and Youth Affairs funded the present study which seeks to describe the characteristics of the early childhood teaching work force and to make projections of the supply and demand needs of the State over the next five years. The aims of the study of early childhood teacher supply and demand were to: . quantify the nature and extent of shortages of early childhood teachers in NSW, . identify patterns of shortages in relation to different sectors of the industry and different geographical locations, . identify patterns of work force participation of early

childhood teachers in New South Wales, and . recommend strategies for establishing a balance between projected supply and demand estimates.The study has been conducted with the co-operation of all universities in NSW and the ACT which provide early childhood teacher education programs and hence supply teachers for NSW and ACT children's services. PROBLEMS IN LABOUR MARKET STUDIES The research literature indicates that there are a number of methodological problems inherent in conducting labour market studies. Stapleton (1989) cautions that educational policy makers should view any labour market forecasts with extreme scepticism. He suggests that studies which forecast a simple relationship between the size of a cohort being trained (supply) and the labour market (demand) are simplistic. Such simple models are ineffective as a basis for developing policies designed to offset the impact of changes in demand by altering supply (or vice versa). The literature supports Stapleton's analysis in which he identifies four problems that need to be considered in designing labour market studies. First, there is the monumental problem of inadequate data leading to forecasts and recommendations based on very weak evidence. Preston (1992), in the most recent Australian study of primary and secondary

teacher supply and demand, raised the problem of making estimates where data is less than adequate. She argued that, in this situation, the best strategy is to develop a series of projections of supply and demand based on differing sets of assumptions. Second, Stapleton pointed out that it is too often assumed that governments and educational employers behave in the same way as a competitive firm when considering changes in demand and supply. This, of course, ignores the effect of government policy on both. Public policy is a significant determinant of supply and demand, particularly in the early childhood field. Wash & Brand (1990) pointed out that better estimates would come from knowing the directions that government and employers would take in work-based and for-profit child care, the wage structure, and the staff turnover rates. In the case of early childhood, failure to factor in the effect of government child care policies particularly in creating increased demand for trained staff will compound the uncertainties of any demand estimates. Third, Stapleton argued that supply forecasts based on projections derived from a single measure such as undergraduate enrolments or the number of degrees awarded do not have a good track record (Atkinson, 1990; Erekson & Gloeckner 1986; Over, 1983). Stapleton concludes that the predictive validity of such studies may be improved by using multiple sources of data on which to base estimates of the dependent variable. Van House (1984) used multiple measures of additions to the supply of librarians, such as new graduates of library training programs, re- entrants to the work force, delayed entrants, and occupational transfers. Cooper's (1984) comple- mentary study of demand for librarians used the multiple measures provided by census data on librarians employed in public, school, academic, and special libraries as well as in non-library information professions (such as records managers or database administrators in non-library settings). Comparing the methods and results of teacher supply and demand studies, Roth (1981) concluded that conflicting projections resulted from failure to distinguish between total supply and demand estimates and reports by geographical region, school setting (urban, suburban, rural), subject area, method of collecting data, and techniques used for making projections. Moreover, there were assumptions made about variables (such as turnover rate, number of qualified graduates prepared to apply for positions, and pupil-teacher ratios), which led to uncertainty associated with the projections. Murnane, Singer, & Willett (1988) pointed to the importance of knowing about teacher career patterns and decisions such as whether to enter teaching, how

long to stay, and whether to return after a career interruption. They showed that assumptions of a common attrition rate do not take into account different teaching specialisations, change of attrition rates over time, and failure to return to teaching. Traill and Walker's (1992) study of the career patterns and experiences of teacher education graduates included variables such as graduates holding teaching positions, intentions of graduates in non-teaching positions,

and time spent in permanent, temporary, and casual teaching positions. Whitebook, Howes, and Phillips (1989) used estimates of staff turnover in their study. Fourth, Stapleton maintained that market adjustments which resolve supply and demand imbalances occur irrespective of planned intervention. Each of these issues needs to be considered further in the context of the following review of labour market studies. The present study takes into account two mechanisms provided in the Regulations for adjusting supply and demand. The first consists of recognising other approved qualifications or other approved training or experience instead of the early childhood teaching qualification for meeting the requirements of a primary contact staff member. The other consists of not requiring any trained staff in centres licensed for 0-29 places. Both mechanisms have been powerful in reducing demand for trained early childhood teachers to match supply in situations where there are shortages.

DESIGN OF THE STUDY The research problem lay in developing estimates of supply and demand for trained early childhood teachers in different types of services, in different geographical locations, and based on a number of projections of the future expansion in centre-based places for children in the preschool age range. The study focussed on centre-based services for children in the pre-school age group from birth to five years of age. Data Sources The studies reviewed suggested that there are four aspects that need to be addressed by supply and demand studies. First, there is the need to base the estimates on adequate data. Second, there is the need to take into account the process of policy development in the public sector on the provision of children's services. Third, there is the need to use multiple sources of data for estimating supply and demand variables. Fourth, there is the need to account for market adjustments resolving imbalance between supply and demand. The present study has sought to take each factor in account in its design. Figure 1 shows a research design that was multi- methodological in order to attempt to take into account the effect of previous sources of unreliability. _____________________________________________________________ Insert Figure 1 about here _____________________________________________________________ The problem of lack of adequate data remained a major limitation on the study. Because of the unavailability of useful data from the school-based sector where early childhood teachers are regularly employed, no attempt was made to include school systems data. However, data obtained from graduates provided some estimate of the proportion of new Early Childhood Teachers who currently find employment in the school system and are, thus, not available for employment in centre-based services catering for children in the pre-school age range (from birth to age five). Similarly, since no data on the potential

demand from Family Day Care and Out of School Hours services were available, it was not possible to include these, or any other non- centre-based children's service, in the investigation. Polls of students who had graduated in 1992 and 1993 were used to estimate the numbers going into these types of services.

There was a diverse range of relevant data which were analysed to produce estimates of supply and demand. The Universities provided enrolment and graduation data, and DEET analyses (Turnbull,1992) provided student attrition rates. In order to up-date the supply data, the 1992 and 1993 graduands of selected Universities were polled about their employment status in the mid-year following the completion of their teacher education courses. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data on child care in Australia was used extensively. The NSW Department of Community Services provided access to licensing data. The NSW Ministerial Qualifications Advisory Committee provided the data relating to approvals for primary contact staff members on the basis of other approved qualifications than those specified in the NSW Regulations for Centre-based Care.Survey Design and ProceduresSurvey Design. Three surveys were designed to obtain data from centres, teachers, and graduates and then input to the derivation of the supply and demand estimates. Each survey went through several drafts, the final version of which was professionally formatted and designed to be completed by a respondent in less than five minutes and to permit recording of data from a telephone call where centres had not responded. The draft versions were intensively piloted on the director and teachers of the Institute's Child Study Centre preschool and then field tested with the assistance of several other centres. The Survey of Centres sought information on the number of trained early childhood teachers who are employed as primary contact staff under the licensing regulations for centres in New South Wales. This survey also sought information about the number of teachers employed over and above the above minimum licensing requirements. Centre directors were asked for the number of licensed places, the number of full- and part-time teachers employed, the qualifications held by each teacher, and number of any approvals granted by the Minister from the regulations to staff who were not early childhood trained. They were questioned about recruitment, the frequency with which they had advertised positions for early childhood qualified teachers, and the number of suitably qualified applicants. Finally, centres were asked to identify any current vacancies for early childhood teacher positions required under licensing and to estimate the number of additional teachers who might be recruited as a result of any planned expansion of places. The Survey of Teachers sought the following data from employed teachers: the early childhood qualifications they had obtained, the qualifying institution and year of graduation, and whether they received their qualification in New South Wales, interstate or

overseas. They were asked about the nature, sector and duration of employment in different services since graduation. They answered questions about whether their main status was full or part-time, casual or perma- nent, paid or unpaid. They were also asked whether the work had been located within New South Wales, interstate or overseas. They recorded the time spent out of the work force, their intentions to remain in the work force and for how long. They were also asked whether the time they spent out of employment was for voluntary reasons or whether they were seeking work at the time. The Survey of Graduates was designed to parallel the data sought from the teachers, since the only difference from the employed teachers was assumed to be the fact that the graduates who would respond would be unemployed. The Graduate Survey thus contained all the questions that were on that form. However, since the Survey of Graduates was intended to provide data on those not currently in the work force, respondents were first asked whether or not they were currently working in children's services. If they were, they were asked to ensure that they completed the Survey of Teachers at work. If they were not currently employed, they were then asked to answer the remaining

questions.Survey Procedures. The NSW Children's Services Contact Switchboard was found to maintain a reasonably current database of all centre-based services in NSW. The Management Committee of Contact Switchboard agreed to make available for the purposes of the study a list of each service, the type of services provided, the type of sponsorship, the number of licensed places, and the age range of children for which each centre was licensed. Centre Surveys were mailed to centres enclosing stamped addressed envelopes for replies and also with copies of the Teacher Survey, with a request that they be passed to the teachers who would be listed on the Centre Survey for completion and then returned with the Centre Survey (or returned separately if desired). Where centres did not respond, a telephone follow-up was initiated to seek the data for the survey. Each response was checked for accuracy and consistency with the original Contact Switchboard database. Telephone contact was made with centres (where necessary) to check discrepancies. The Graduate Surveys were mailed to all Early Childhood Teacher Education graduates of all Universities and Colleges of Advanced Education in the A.C.T. and New South Wales who had graduated over the period 1988 to 1992. The development of the graduate lists and the mailing of the surveys was done with the assistance of each Early Childhood Teacher Education programs in the ACT and New South Wales. The Survey Population Overall, the Centre Survey yielded a high response rate of over 70.23% (1321/1881) of the services in contacted in New South Wales. Table 1 shows that the patterns of distribution of the non-responding centres did not differ significantly from the main features of the centres which responded, except that the large majority of them, 71.96%

(403/560) as against 51.85% (685/1321) for responding centres were operating in the under-thirty place range and did not require a teacher under the Child Care Regulations. Slightly more commercial centres, 39.73% (213/540) were included in the non-responding category. This may be due to the fact that the commercial centres represented 72.86% (427/586) of 0-29-place centres. Such centres, in NSW, do not require teachers and may, therefore, have not seen any need to respond. Table 1 also shows that long day care centres (42.14%) and preschools (48.67%) were the major service types. The number of preschools and day care centres in the state were approximately similar although, overall, preschools were more numerous on a state-wide basis but less numerous in Sydney. _____________________________________________________________ Insert Table 1 about here _____________________________________________________________ Table 1 shows that the ratio of Community-based versus Commercial services in New South Wales (and also in Sydney) is approximately 2.4:1. However, it was found that the community-based sector employed teachers at six times the rate of the commercial centres. This large differential appears to reflect the finding that two thirds of commercial centres operate in the 0-29 place range and do not require teachers. A similar pattern emerged for applicants for teacher positions who were found to apply in much greater numbers for jobs in community-based centres than they did to commercial centres. There were also great differences in the number of applicants for Sydney positions compared with other regions although, generally speaking, the proportions tended to follow the 0-4-year-old population statistics of the regions.

RESULTS Factors Affecting Demand Current Demand

Table 2 presents the demand estimates for early childhood teachers. The demand estimates were developed from (a) findings from the survey data, (b) an extrapolation based on a correction factor, (c) a yearly estimate, and (d) the 1993-1996 estimate. The data for each variable were then cumulated to provide a progressive sub-total of demand. _____________________________________________________________ Insert Table 2 about here _____________________________________________________________

The Effect of the New South Regulations on Numbers of Teachers

The first task was to estimate the size of the early childhood teacher work force. The 70% of Centres that responded reported that the total figure of teachers employed in NSW is nearly 1800 (1783), of whom nearly 1200 were based in Sydney. There were 1187 teachers

required by the Regulations and 596 teachers employed above the Regulation requirements. Extrapolation to the 30% of non-responding services brings the state estimate to about 2300 teachers being employed. However, the results of the Teacher and Graduate Surveys together yielded an overall number of 2300 teachers who reported themselves as employed in New South Wales. It is possible, then, that the actual number of teachers employed could be greater. The community sector was by far the larger employer of qualified teachers in New South Wales, currently employing an extrapolated 2000 teachers, with the commercial sector employing about 300 teachers. Most teachers in the responding centres were employed in preschools (917) but only slightly fewer in long day care centres (820).

Teacher Turnover The next task was to estimate new demand which arose from teacher turnover. Current Vacancies. There were only 36 across the state, most of which occurred in the 40-59 place centres (30). Extrapolating for the 30% of non-responding services yielded an estimate of 51 vacancies. The largest number of vacancies occurred in Sydney - two thirds of vacancies were found in Sydney community-based centres, and no vacancies were reported at all for any commercial centre. This might well reflect the large proportion of commercial centres under thirty places and not required to have teachers. Approximately two thirds of the current vacancies reported were occurring in Long Day Care services, despite a previous finding that the employed teachers were fairly evenly distributed across the long day care and preschool services in New South Wales. It is concluded that this may be occurring because of the different rates of growth in these services which markedly favours the long day care sector. Teachers' Intention to Leave the Work Force. Two thirds of the responding teachers planned to remain in the Early Childhood work force for at least 5 years, and a further 13% beyond that figure for the next 12 months. Only 33 teachers in the state reported that they intended to leave within the next twelve months. In comparison with previous studies conducted by the NSW Community Child Care Co-operative (1987, 1992), this is an unexpectedly low turn- over rate which, as with other education sectors, is probably due to the recessionary economic climate (Preston, 1992). Extrapolating to the non-responding centres brought the total to 47 teachers who were planning to leave the work force in the next year. However, as a large number of teachers failed to respond on this item (nearly 24%) it is likely that a large number of teachers (489) were uncertain as to their plan, which might make the figure of 47 too conservative. Adding in the previous percentages obtained from those who did respond would bring the total to 55 per year. At this annual rate, the overall turnover resulting in departure

from the Early Childhood work force in the projection period 1993-1996 would be 220. The estimate, then, for demand resulting from teacher

turnover was 271.

Other Approved Qualifications and Experience The next factor that was taken into account in estimating demand was the number of staff not qualified as Early Childhood teachers but whose qualifications and experience have been approved by the Ministerial Qualifications Advisory Committee (MQAC) operating in the Department of Community Services or through its regional Children's Services officers. Table 7 shows that such staff constituted 7% (119) of the teacher work force. There were 125 staff were approved by the MQAC, 71 as primary contact staff and 54 as authorised supervisors. If one allows that at least half of the positions for Authorised Supervisors who were approved by this committee would normally have gone to qualified Early Childhood teachers then the estimates above of the overall demand per year should be increased to 396 for the projected period 1993- 1996. It was concluded that, in terms of maintaining current demand, an estimated 667 new teachers would be needed in NSW in the 1993-1997 period. The shortage of teachers did not seem to be as severe as it was in the period 1998-1990 (IECS, 1987). The main factors contributing to this picture are probably: i) the very large number of 0-29 place centres which can avoid the employment of teachers under the regulations.ii) the employment of staff without Early Childhood qualifications who had been approved by the Ministerial Qualifications Advisory Committee, and iii) the increase in the supply caused by the much larger numbers graduating from all teacher education programs in the last few years. Future Demand The next set of estimates concerned the potential expansion of Child Care services in New South Wales over the next four years. However, there was a lack of data concerning about (a) the approval rates of commercial and work-related services in recent years in New South Wales, (b) the plans for approval and implementation of Community-based child care places either already allocated to this state, or proposed to be allocated by the Commonwealth, and (c) uncertainties about the New South Wales Government's plans to implement latest Commonwealth policy.

Anticipated Short-term Expansion Directors' plans for expansion in the short term (the years from 1993-1996) would give rise to an anticipated state-wide total of vacancies of 197. Extrapolating to the complete state-wide sample brings the total to 281 a year. Centres under 30 places predicted almost as much new demand as the two next largest groupings. Most planned teacher vacancies were reported by the Community-based centres, 62% as against 38% in the commercial sector. Nearly 80% of the estimated need for new teachers came from long day care services and most of these, 57%, were based in the Sydney region. Overall, the

Sydney region predicted the large bulk (86%) of the state's predicted short term growth in demand.Work-based and For-profit Expansion The Commonwealth Government has recently extended fee-relief to private, for-profit, services and has initiated incentives for the development of work-based services. Follow-up telephone interviews with a small sample of new services in which their plans for expansion were discussed indicated that there may be significant growth in both sectors but especially in new for- profit centres. Statistics obtained from the Child Care Section of the Commonwealth Department of Health

and Human Services indicated that the growth rate in for-profit services over the past 2 years in New South Wales was in the region of 103% (ie 51% per year) and was likely to be similar in employment-related service. In the last two years there were 271 new work-based and commercial child care centres operating in NSW. This suggests a yearly increase of 69 (51%) from the base of 136, making a total of 228 new work-based and for-profit centres over the four year period 1993-1996. However, because of the imprecise nature of the data for these types of service, the estimates must be treated with some degree of caution. National Child Care Strategy 1988 and 1990 In 1988, the Commonwealth Government instituted a National Child Care Strategy for non- profit, community-based services. In 1988 the Commonwealth allocated 1020 community-based long day care places to New South Wales. Data from the Department of Health and Human Services indicated that 845 places of this allocation remained to become operational. The Commonwealth again allocated community-based long day care places to New South Wales in 1990. In this case 3500 were allocated and all of them are yet to become operational. Both of these figures for places that are yet to become operational have been factored into the demand totals for the period 1993 to 1996 on the basis that they are intended to be taken up by new 40-place community-based day care centres. Based on the data from the centre surveys, it can be predicted that most of them will employ two qualified teachers which is the traditional pattern in New South Wales. However, since there was also a strong recent trend for 40-place centres to be converted to 39-place centres, and thus avoid the need to employ a second teacher under the regulations, this factor was calculated as if 50% of these new centres would employ two teacher and 50% one teacher. The result was the projection of between 21-42 (mid-point 32) new teachers which will be required when the 1988 places become operational. When the 1990 places become operational, over the period 1993-1996, this would require a further 87-175 (mid-point 130) new Early Childhood teachers during the period under examination.This brought the cumulative demand total for this period to a range 109 - 207 (mid-point 162) new teachers.1993 Election Policy Expansion

In the 1993 election campaign, the Commonwealth Government also undertook to greatly increase the number of subsidised community-based child care places in Australia over the coming four years. The total number of new child care places for the four-year period for the whole nation was proposed to be as follows - in 1992/3-1600, 1993/4-2000, 1994/5-1900, and 1995/6- 4100. 1996/7- 3500, which equals a total of 13,000. For the projection period, 1993-1996, the Commonwealth has allocated 4200 new child care places to New South Wales (3,500 private places and 700 Community-based places). Based on the current profiles of the private centres in the present survey, the 3500 private places would require 50 new teachers in 1993/4 or 200 for the four year period. The 700 places allocated to the community-based sector were treated as for the previous allocations (attributed to 40-place centres) and yielded a projection of a range of 18-35 with a mid-point of 26 new teachers for 1993/4. Projecting for the same rate of expansion for the whole period until 1996/7 brought the community-based centres' total to 104 new teachers. The total number of new teachers needed for the 1993-1996 period based on an assumption of future expansion would be 1642.

School Sector Demand It proved impossible to discover from any school system how many

Early Childhood teachers were entering schools to teach in the junior years of their primary schools in Kindergarten through to Years 2 or 3. All the Department of School Education could provide was the absolute total of teachers in the system who had Early Childhood qualifications (314). They were unable to provide annual numbers of such graduates who enter the department each year and hence could not predict the demand from this source. Neither the Catholic nor the Independent school systems could supply even the total numbers in their respective systems. All three systems classify such teachers simply as primary teachers. However, since these numbers were believed to represent a significant proportion of new graduates, and had been found to be of the order of 20% in the last teacher supply study undertak- en by the present authors (IECS, 1987), two Graduation Day Surveys of students who had completed their course six months before were undertaken in mid-1992 and mid-1993. In the 1992 Graduation Day Survey, it was possible to poll all three Sydney metropolitan Early Childhood Teacher Education programs ( the one offered by Macquarie University, and the two by the University of Western Sydney, at Macarthur and at Nepean). In 1993, it was only possible, due to lack of project funds, to poll Macquarie University graduands. The combined results suggested that the proportion going straight into the school systems was now approximately 14%. This figure was subtracted from the supply projection figures of prospective graduates from all Universities over

the 1993-1996 period. To summarise, the study estimated a demand in the for 667 new early childhood teachers in the 1993-1996 period based on a status quo situation. Including estimates based on anticipated future expansion of child care services, there would be a demand for a further 975 teachers, a total of 1642. It needs to be recalled that the expansion figures do not include any factoring for sponta- neous growth in the private or employment-based child care sectors; nor do they include the demand for Early Childhood teachers caused by the large numbers of new places allocated in this Budget for New South Wales in the Family Day Care sector (4000), Occasional Care services and Out-of School Hours programs. Neither does it include any estimate of demand from the school sector. It would seem as if the actual demand might be considerably greater than that estimated.

Factors Affecting Supply Table 3 provides the supply estimates for early childhood teachers. The supply estimates were developed from (a) university data on projected graduates, (b) an extrapolation based on a correction factor, (c) a yearly estimate, and (d) the 1993-1996 estimate. The data for each variable were then accumulated to provide a progressive sub-total of supply. _____________________________________________________________ Insert Table 3 about here _____________________________________________________________

GraduatesPre-service Early Childhood Graduates The projections from all Universities whose pre-service graduates provide the potential supply for the Children's Services in New South Wales indicate that the annual projected enrolment for 1993 would be 392, for 1994, 515, for 1995, 517, and for 1996, 535, a total of 1959.

These figures, however, were adjusted to take into account the attrition rate (failure and withdrawal rates) from courses prior to completion. Following the average suggested by the DEET supply and demand study (Turnbull, 1992) for the three year period 1990-1992, we subtracted 11% from the projected enrolment totals for this attrition

factor. This would bring the annual projected supply rates to 1993-349, 1994-458, 1995-460, 1996-476, a total of 1743. Graduates Unavailable to the 0-5 Work Force The next task was to estimate the number of graduates who did not seek employment in the 0-5 year sector of the work force. The estimates were based on the employment patterns obtained from the employed Teachers' Survey questions dealing with the employment history of all early childhood teachers employed in New South Wales centres who responded to our surveys, the unemployed Graduate Survey ( focussing on similar questions) and the two surveys of Sydney metropolitan

graduating students on their Graduation Days in April and May 1992 and 1993, respectively. The relevant results of these four surveys were averaged, where appropriate, to obtain estimates of the proportion of new graduates who were employed in schools, in other industries, and in who were voluntarily unemployed.School Sector Employment. There was an estimated 14% of the early childhood graduates who were employed in the school sector. There was thus a total of 244 graduates who could be expected to work in schools and not be available for employment in the 0-5 sector. Other Industries. There was an estimated 6% of the early childhood graduates who were employed in other industries including the primary and secondary school sectors, in private homes as nannies, in Family day Care, and in Out-of-School Hours Programs. There was thus a total of 105 graduates who could be expected to work in other industries and not be available for employ- ment in the 0-5 sector. Voluntarily Unemployed. There was an estimated 6% of the early childhood graduates who were voluntarily unemployed including those in home duties or in full-time further study. There was thus a total of 105 graduates who could be expected to be voluntarily unemployed and not be available for employment in the 0-5 sector. There was thus an estimated 454 of the 1743 graduates who could be expected not to be seeking employment in the 0-5 sector.0-5 Work Force SupplyEmployed in Children's Services 0-5. There was an estimated 63% of the graduates who were employed in any type of preschool and long day care service, making an estimated 1098 graduates available for employment in the 0-5 sector.Unemployed (forced). There was an estimated 11% who were unemployed and seeking work. These graduates were available for employment in the 0-5 sector and hence part of the work force pool. Application of these weightings yielded estimated projected totals of new graduate supply (percentage employed in non-school centre-based services plus the percentage who were unem- ployed and seeking work) for each year from 1993 to 1996. The estimated total number of graduates available for employment in the 0-5 sector was 1289.Re-entry to the Work Force 0-5 Sector The Teachers' and Graduates' Survey provided figures on which it was possible to estimate that over the last five years approximately 200 teachers had entered or re-entered the 0-5 sector of the work force from outside. On this basis, the study estimated that there would be an additional 168 (or 42 per year) who would be available for employment in the 0-5 sector who moved from other industries,other sectors of education, or from interstate or overseas. The cumulative total available for the 0-5 work force for the projected period 1993-1996 would be 1457 (or 360 per year).Supply and Demand Balance Status Quo Assumption Then the supply figures were compared to the conservative estimates of the demand for qualified teachers as presented on the status quo assumption. Taking into account only teacher turnover there

was need for an estimated 271 new teachers in the period 1993 -1996. If approvals from the Ministerial Advisory Committee ceased in future

there would be a need for an estimated additional 396 new teachers. There would then be a demand for an estimated 667 new teachers (an average of 167 per year) while there would be an estimated 1457 teachers available, an oversupply of 790 teachers. This does not, of course reflect the estimates based on natural growth in numbers of commercial centres, expansion within existing services, or government sponsored initiatives already in the pipeline in NSW or proposed in the 1993 Budget as matters of Commonwealth policy. Even for the status quo, this figure may not reflect the whole picture of demand. Demand from the three school systems, family day care schemes, occasional care services and out-of-school hours programs, all of which employ Early Childhood Teachers, is not known. The rates of employment in these other services are not recorded and bear no relationship to the formulas in the NSW Child Care Regulations. The apparent stabilisation of demand and supply currently being experienced in NSW may be due to several factors.1. The enormous number of centres licensed for less than 30 places which do not require teachers (57% or 1088 out of a total of 1880).2. The presence of staff without formal Early Childhood Teacher qualifications who have been approved to work in teacher positions ( a further 7% of the teacher work force).3. The reduction in numbers of Early Childhood teachers being employed in the three school systems as primary teachers for the early years of school.4. The significant increases in numbers of qualified students graduating since 1992 from both established and new teacher education programs. It is important to stress the conservative nature of the demand estimates. The supply estimates may be more accurate reflecting the data provided by the senior academic and adminis- trative staff in charge of each university's Early Childhood Teacher Education program. The estimates of new supply each year may be based on more comprehensive, and hence, more accurate enrolment projection data. Based on the status quo assumption, it seems reasonable to conclude that there may be a more than adequate supply of new teachers for the estimated vacancies 1993-1996. However, the estimates of future demand due to the planned expansion of Children's Services to take place over the coming four years suggest a different situation.Future Demand In the context of (a) the directors' estimates of projected expansion, (b) work-based and for-profit expansion, (c) rapid, government-sponsored growth (incorporating the 1988-1990 National Child Care Strategy, and (d) the 1993 National Budget allocations for Children's Services) the crucial consideration in the projected supply-demand equation is to estimate the growth in demand from this source and from natural (unplanned and unfunded) growth over the next

four years. There will be demand for an additional 281 teachers on the basis of the directors' estimates, 228 on the basis of the work-based and for-profit expansion, 162 on the basis of the 1988 and 1990 National Child Care Strategy places, and 304 on the basis of the 1993 election policy expansion. On this basis, there would be an estimated demand for 1642 new teachers 1993-1996. There would then be a shortage estimated at 185 teachers.It should be stressed that this conclusion is based on the assumptions that:1. New South Wales 1988, 1990 and 1993 Commonwealth expansion child care places will be completely taken up by the New South Wales government;2. The 1993 budget allocation for child care expansion will be at least repeated over the next three years of the present national government's term;3. Untrained teachers will no longer be approved by the Department of

Community Services to work as "primary contact staff"; and4. 14% of Early Childhood graduates will be accepted into the three school systems to work in primary schools each year. LIMITATIONS ON SUPPLY AND DEMANDDemand Estimates Due to the fact that records of the rate of employment of Early Childhood graduates are not kept in several other areas in which they commonly find work, eg, Family Day Care, Occasional Care Services, and Out of School Hours programs, it has not been possible to factor in the increases in demand which will result in the expansion planned for 1993 to 1996 in these services by Commonwealth and State Governments. This lack of information has therefore caused the figures above to over-estimate the supply of new graduates available to the preschool/child care sector to the extent that the number opting to take up new positions in these services cannot be estimated. It is worth noting that the 1993 Budget predicts large increases in these services. Similarly, it has not been possible within the scope of this study to estimate the effect of the marked expansion in Children's Services on increasing the need for specialised tertiary, and TAFE lecturing staff, ie, Early Childhood Teachers prepared to continue their studies and undertake higher degrees. Because of the recent increases in the sizes of the intakes to universi- ties and TAFE course to train more qualified personnel, there now exists a marked shortage of suitably qualified staff to train teachers and other professional personnel for Child Care services. It has not been possible to take the indirect effect of this shortage into account in this study. It would be anticipated that the pattern of predicted expansion in child care services will similarly bring about an indirect increase in demand for qualified teachers to work as administra- tive and advisory staff in relevant government, municipal and community organisations which operate and /or supervise large numbers of centres. This, too,

has not been factored into this study. It is also worth noting that there is currently some discussion with a view to examining policy initiatives in the Department of School Education which may result in the decision to employ greater numbers of qualified Early Childhood teachers in the first years of primary school. It should be borne in mind that such an initiative will increases demand for Early Childhood teachers if they are implemented within the projected period. Further, it has not been possible to take account of the growth in numbers of Early Childhood teachers who are moving into special education services as Early Childhood Interven- tion professionals. Nor has it been possible to cater for the numbers of part-time casual and temporary teachers employed under the NSW Special Needs Grant to work with children with special needs and with languages other than English in state-funded centres . Moreover, it has not been possible to estimate spontaneous growth (not sponsored, planned or supported by government) in private or employer-sponsored centres over the projected period. As pointed out, private centres have increased by 103% since the beginning of 1990.Supply Estimates Universities are experiencing increases in the proportion of students opting to continue their teacher preparation to obtain a Bachelor of Education by either entering a four-year program or converting to a fourth-year beyond their initial three year Diploma or Degree. It has not been possible to estimate the numbers involved: most Universities with Early Childhood programs either have just (in 1993) eliminated their three year awards in favour of 'straight-through' four- year B. Eds (some whilst retaining an informal exit option at that point), or have just changed their degree structures to offer both three- and four- year degrees with the

possibility of conversion at any point from now on. However, this will have the effect of postponing the completion of courses for a considerable number of new graduates by at least a year, or two years if, as is common, the students elect to complete their fourth year by the part-time external studies mode. It is too early to detect these trends. Since the supply estimates were calculated, there have been some indications that the application of the DEET attrition factor (Turnbull, 1992) may have been too conservative. There is some indication that pass rates since CAE based courses have been integrated into the ethos of established universities may be decreasing. Unfortunately, it was also too early to assess the validity and reliability of this impression. Finally, it is likely that when the economy recovers, there will be a concomitant increase in turn-over rate which currently seems to have markedly decreased in the same way that has been observed for other sectors of teaching (see Preston, 1992). No allowance was made for this possibility in this study.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS As can be seen from the above summary, because of the disparate and fragmented nature of the Early Childhood field and the lack of up-to-date accessible information on most aspects of the Children's Services field, this investigation of the supply and demand parameters of the Early Childhood teacher work force could not claim to be comprehensive or precise. Therefore, the recommendations below must be seen as tentative and restricted by lack of adequate data on which to base confident projections even for the four years, 1993-1996, under consideration. Furthermore, because new data on demand are being input to the study at the present time, in the form of recent Budget implications for child care expansion in the projected period, some conclu- sions and recommendations may be revised in the final report:Recommendation 1: That enrolments in the six universities which provide Early Childhood Teacher Education Courses be maintained at currently projected levels for 1993-1996 until information related to Recommendation 2 below has been provided and fed into supply-demand projections. There is no reliable evidence to support reducing intakes; rather, there are some strong indications that demand may increase rapidly within the span of time necessary to prepare new teachers, particularly if the economy recovers over this time.Recommendation 2: That steps be taken to determine when the community-based child care places allocated, or intended to be allocated, to New South Wales in 1988, 1990 and 1993 by the Commonwealth Government will become operational. This information is crucial to obtain accurate estimates of the numbers of new teachers needed to meet the regulations when the resulting centres are approved and licensed; it is also crucial to predicting the adjustments to enrolments in pre-service Early Childhood Teacher Education programs in the six Universities offering such programs in time to provide the necessary supply to meet this potentially large expansion.Recommendation 3: That the approval of staff without Early Childhood qualifications for "primary contact staff" positions by the NSW Community Services Ministerial Advisory Qualifications Committee, (under the New South Wales Child Care Regulations), be reviewed in relation to the findings of this report. These findings indicate that pre-existing shortfall of supply of qualified teachers, which these approvals were intended to temporarily resolve, has now been corrected, and will stabilise - at least until New South Wales takes up the Commonwealth child care places referred to in Recommendation 2 above.Recommendation 4:

That steps be taken to ensure the establishment of a comprehensive, up-to-date, centralised data base of Children's Services licensed under the New South Wales Child Care Regulations in order to permit rational planning in future for an appropriately qualified work

force and appropri- ate intakes into Early Childhood Teacher Education pre-service courses in sufficient time to cater for future expansion of Child Care services. This is particularly necessary to obtain accurate estimates of the rate of spontaneous growth in private (for-profit) and employment-related child care services. It is important to bear in mind that this study had insufficient information to provide an useful projection of this growth factor. Recommendation 5: That the numbers of teachers with Early Childhood qualifications entering Government, Catholic and Independent school systems each year be recorded in ways that enable calculation of the proportion of Early Childhood teacher graduates who are not available to work in the pre- school/child care sector and to be able to ascertain the pattern of annual demand for Early Childhood teachers coming from this sector.Recommendation 6: That Universities in New South Wales be encouraged to increase the number of student places available for professional development training in Early Childhood Teacher Education to enable the conversion/reskilling of primary and secondary teacher qualifications on an in-service basis to Early Childhood teacher qualifications and the up-grading of pre-service Early Childhood qualifications for teachers wishing to work as Early Childhood advisers and consultants.Recommendation 7: That Universities in New South Wales be encouraged to increase the numbers of student places available for post-graduate academic studies to enable an increasing intake of qualified Early Childhood teachers into TAFE and University Teacher Education programs where the increase in the number of Teacher Education programs, and students enrolled in them, has caused a critical shortage of suitably qualified staff.REFERENCESAtkinson, R. C. (1990). Supply and demand for scientists and engineers: A national crisis in the making. Association Affairs, 248, 425-432Erekson, T. L. & Gloeckner, G. ( 1986). Supply and demand of university faculty. Industrial Education, 75(9), 8-10.Cooper, M. D. (1984). Projections of the demand for librarians in the United States. The Library Quarterly, 54(4), 331-367.Institute of Early Childhood Studies (1987). Report to the NSW Higher Education Board on staff shortages in children's services and demand for early childhood teachers in NSW. Redfern, NSW: Sydney College of Advanced Education.Murnane, R. J., Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (1988). The career paths of teachers: Implications for teacher supply and methodological lessons for research. Educational Researcher, 17(6), 22-30.NSW Ministry of Education, Youth, and Women's Affairs (1990). Teacher education: Directions and Strategies. Sydney, NSW.Over, R. (1983). Career prospects for academics in the education departments of Australian universities. The Journal of Educational Administration, 21(1). 69-78.Preston, B. (1992). Teacher supply and demand: Some issues for the

coming decade. Unpublished paper prepared for the Australian Council of Deans of Education, Canberra, ACT.Report of the Committee of Review of NSW Schools (1988). Sydney, NSW: NSW Ministry of Education. Roth, R. A. (1981). A comparison of methods and results of major teacher supply and demand studies. Journal of Teacher Education, 32(6), 43-46. Stapleton, D. C. (1989). Cohort size and the academic labor market.

The Journal of Human Resources, 14(2), 221-252.Traill, R. & Walker, J. (1992). The career patterns and experiences of teacher education graduates. Unpublished paper. University of Canberra.Turnbull, J. (1992). Early childhood teacher in NSW: A labour market assessment. Department of Employ- ment, Education, and Training, NSW.Van House, N. A. (1984). Projections of the supply of librarians. The Library Quarterly, 54(4), 368-395.Wash, D. P. & Brand, L. E. (1990). Child care services: An industry at a crossroads. Monthly Labor Review, December 1990, pp 17-24.Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils (1986). Looking towards a crisis in child care centres staffing in Western Sydney. Unpublished paper prepared by WSROC, Blacktown., NSW.Whitebook,M., Howes, C., & Phillips, D. (1990). Who cares? Child care teachers and the quality of care in America. Final Report National Child care Staffing Study. Oakland, Ca.: Child Care Empoyee Project.

Figure 1Model for Supply and Demand for Early Childhood Teachers in NSWModel for Supply and Demand for Early Childhood Teachers in NSW

Factors Affecting Demand

Current Demand

NSW Regulations for Centre-based Ser- vices Teachers required by Regulation Teachers employed above Regulation requirements

Teacher Turnover Vacancies in October-November 1992 Intention to leave the work force

Other Approved Qualifications

Future Demand

Anticipated short-term expansion 1993-1995

Number of teachers needed for newly created positions

Work-based and for-profit expansion

National Child Care Strategy 1988 New South Wales places 1990 New South Wales places

1993 Election Policy expansion Proposed new places for New South Wales

Factors Affecting Supply

Graduates Available

Pre-service Early Childhood Graduates Graduates 1988-1993 Projected Graduates 1993-1996 Pattern of Work Force Participation

Employment Other than Children's Services School Sector Other Industries Unemployed (voluntarily) Employment within Children's Services Children's Services 0-5 Sector Unemployed (forced) Re-entry to the Work Force

Table 1: Responding and Non-responding Services (N=1881)

a. Arranged by Number of Licensed Places

Licensed PlacesResponding Non-Responding Total

N % N % N %

0-29 685 51.85 403 71.96 108857.84

30-39 112 8.48 32 5.71 144 7.66

40-59 462 34.97 106 18.93 568 30.20

60+ 62 4.69 19 3.39 81 4.31

Total 1321 100.00 560 100.00 1881 100.00

b. Arranged by Type of Sponsorship

Type of Responding Non-Responding TotalSponsor

N % N % N %

Community 948 71.76 347 61.96 1295 68.85

Commercial 373 28.24 213 38.04 586 31.15

Total 1321 100.00 560 100.00 1881 100.00

c. Arranged by Type of Service

Type of Responding Non-Responding TotalService N % N % N %

Long Day Care 595 45.01 198 35.36 793 42.14

Preschool 637 48.18 279 49.82 916 48.67

Occasional Care 72 5.45 48 8.57 120 6.38

Special 18 1.36 31 5.54 49 2.60

Multi-purpose 0 0.00 4 .71 4 .21

Total 1322 100.00 560 100.00 1882 100.00 Table 2: Demand Estimates for Early Childhood Teachers 1993-1996

a) Current Demand

Source Finding Factor Yearly 1993-96 Sub Estimate Estimate TotalNSW Regulations Teachers required by Regulation 1187

Teachers employed above Regulation requirements 596Total 1783 +30 NR% 2300________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________

Teacher TurnoverCurrent Vacancies 36 +30 %NR 51 51 Intention to Leave the Work Force < one year 33 +30% NR 47 +NR% 8 220Total 69 106 271 271

Other ApprovedQualifications In Work Force 119 119 MQAC Approvals 1992 PCSM's 71 71 Authorised Supervisor 54 -50% Not EC trained 27 Total 244 98 396 667

(b) Future Demand

Short-term Expansion 197 +30% 281 281 948

Work-based and for-profit Expansion 136 +51% pa 69 228 1176

National Child Care Strategy 1988 (845 places) 50% 2 teacher (40pl) 50% 1 teacher (39pl) 32 1990 (3500 places) 50% 2 teacher (40pl) 50% 1 teacher (39pl) 130 Total Teachers 162 1338

1993 Election Policy Expansion Commercial (3500 places) 50 200 Community (700 places) 50% 2 teacher (40pl) 50% 1 teacher (39pl) 26 104

Total Teachers 304 1642Table 3: Supply Estimates for Early Childhood Teachers 1993-1996

Source Finding Factor Estimate 1993-6 Sub-total

Pre-service Early Childhood Graduates Graduates 1988-1993 2149 Projected Graduates 1993-1996 1959 -11% attrition 1743 1743 Unavailable to 0-5 Work Force Schools -14% -244 Other industries -6% -105 Unemployed (voluntary) -6% -105Total Unavailable -454 1289________________________________________________________________________ _________

0-5 Work Force Supply Children's services 0-5 63% 1098 Unemployed (forced) 11% 191 1289

Re-entry to Work Force421681 457Purpose of the NSW Early Childhood Teacher Work Force Study

QUANTIFY THE NATURE AND EXTENT OF SHORTAGES OF EARLY CHILDHOOD TEACHERS IN NSW

IDENTIFY PATTERNS OF SHORTAGES IN RELATION TO DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE INDUSTRY AND DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONS

IDENTIFY PATTERNS OF WORK FORCE PARTICIPATION OF EARLY CHILDHOOD TEACHERS IN NEW SOUTH WALES

RECOMMEND STRATEGIES FOR ESTABLISHING A BALANCE BETWEEN PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATESNSW Regulations Requirements for Primary Contact Staff Members

there must be in attendance at the centre: (i) if there are between 30 and 39 children at the centre - 1; and (ii) if there are between 40 and 59 children at the centre - 2; and (iii) if there are between 60 and 79 children at the

centre - 3; and (iv) if there are 80 children or more at the centre - 4, primary contact staff members. (Regulations and Licensing Guidelines for Centre-based Child Care Services, 1989. (10)(d)).

NSW Regulations Definition of Primary Contact Staff Members

primary contact staff members: (v) who have completed a full-time course of not less than 3 years duration, at a university or college of advanced education, of early childhood studies; or (vi) who have other approved quali- fications or other approved training and experience; (Regulations and Licensing Guidelines for Centre-based Child Care Services, 1989. (10)(d)).