contents · e-mail: [email protected] the journal was registered with the ministry of culture,...

1QUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW 2 (58)/2015

EURASIAN TRANSPORT CORRIDORS: NEW WAYS FOR COOPERATION.CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, ASTANA, APRIL 20, 2015

Sun Li Silk Road Economic Belt: Together towards Better Future.....................................4

Eradzh ElahiTransport Corridors of Iran as Factor in Regional Economic Integration...............7

Andrei KazantsevTransport Corridors through Central Asia: How to Create Integrated Network amidst Geopolitical Tensions?.................................................9

Ali Resul Usul Eurasia Transport Corridors: New Ways for Cooperation, Geopolitics or Economic Opportunities................................................................12

Konstantin Syroezhkin Transport Corridors in Eurasia: Economy or Geopolitics.....................................14

Baurzhan Urynbasarov Silk Road: New Cooperation Opportunities..........................................................17

Aigul Kosherbayeva New Infrastructure for Kazakhstan’s Regions........................................................20

Talant SultanovEurasian Infrastructural Corridors: Opportunities, Challenges and Practical Steps for Better Cooperation..........................................24

Kanat Almagambetov Main Aspects to Enhance Competitiveness of Land Transportation in Eurasia.....27

Marat Saudov TRACECA Corridor: Geostrategic and Economic Potential................................29

Farhad MammadovEnergy Strategy of Azerbaijan amidst Global Instability.......................................32

Lidiya ParhomchikRole of the Caspian Region for Development of Energy Corridors......................35

Adil Kaukenov Transport Strategy of China for Eurasian Countries......................................................36

ECONOMY

Yevgeny HonKazakhstan’s Logistical Network in Strategic Locations: Prospects and Possible Benefits................................................................................40

Bulat Mukhamediyev Azimzhan Khitakhunov Characterizing Integration within the Eurasian Space...........................................43

Lilia Mergalyeva Scenarios for Eurasian Integration..........................................................................49

C O N T E N T S

CONTENTS

Issued Quarterly Since 2003

Editor-in-Chief ERLAN KARINDirector of KazISSunder President of RK

Responsible for publication:Almas Arzikulov, Marem BuzurtanovaLayout:Yelena Tushkova

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KAZAKHSTAN INSTITUTEFOR STRATEGIC STUDIESUNDER PRESIDENTOF REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

2/2015


Erlan Karin – EC C E B D K I S S (KISS) P R K C P S

aln ia – Dy M P K H I A D Sy C C P S

Kazk Ia – Sy A R A KISS P RK C Hy

Sanat Kka – Dy D KISS P RK D P S

rat alin – D P S P

ila zaara – F Dy D KISS P R K C E

arat azin – A Exy Py R K R F D S S P


2/2015

E D I T O R I A L B O A R D

EDITORIAL BOARD


Ерлан Карин – шеф-редактор, председатель Редакционного совета, директорКазахстанского института стратегических исследований приПрезидентеРеспубликиКазахстан(КИСИ),кандидатполитическихнаук

Маулен Ашимбаев – депутатМажилисаПарламента РК, председательКомитета помеждународнымделам, оборонеи безопасности, кандидат политическихнаук

Казбек Исаев – ученыйсекретарьКИСИприПрезидентеРК,кандидатисторическихнаук

Санат Кушкумбаев – заместительдиректораКИСИприПрезидентеРК,докторполитическихнаук

Мурат Лаумулин – докторполитическихнаук,профессор

Лейла Музапарова – первыйзаместительдиректораКИСИприПрезидентеРК,кандидатэкономическихнаук

Марат Тажин – Чрезвычайный и Полномочный Посол Республики Казахстанв Российской Федерации, доктор социологических наук,профессор


2/2015

E D I T O R I A L B O A R D

EDITORIAL BOARD


E U R A S I A N T R A N S P O R T C O R R I D O R S

T

Silk Road Economic Belt: Together towards Better FutureSUN LI

v Silk Road Eco-nomic Belt y P X J S 2013 v y

C y v. T v v w C w w x x wv .

F v C y w w y v. Nw y y C vy .

Hwv w wv y . C' x x . T S A . C' ASEAN+C ASEAN+C +J+K. Nw Z B S U S w transformed into theTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP). T TPP x y. I E Mw C U R B

K V P 2012 w y E E U. T E y EU w j C 2013 wy x .

T x C j y w gionalcooperation.IntheAsia-Pacific,thefo C K J. I E j Silk Road Economic Belt .

T Silk Road Economic Belt onlyforthejointparticipationandmutualbenefitbutfortheactionplantoachievethisbenefit.Thej v x ; . T y Economic Belt j.

Mv y y . Ay w C inthefieldofpolitics,andtostresstheintercon thepeoplesassignificantareasforconsideration.



T Silk Road Economic Belt . C R w y w AE y . F v w C R Silk Road Economic Belt. T . C Silk Road Economic Belt v w v .

I j w Silk Road and Economic Belt. T vy q y w w dependenceisincreasingsignificantly.

T v v v .

T Silk Road Economic Belt fast-growingeconomyofAsia-Pacific and they v E C W A. T y w v. T Silk Road Economic Belt v x v y w be beneficial for all participants. China andR j w y j v .

Mv C R j y T Rwy y A w E. R wy j. T S R C Mw K w M S. P. Ty y

R K O. T vy R’ w j. Dy M T Nv I F C W EW C T C j vv S R. R j 80 .

R’ huge investments that would benefit other TS C E Rwy . T R O Nv Ky I shall become themainbeneficiaries from thej w v w as finance, logistics, trade, industrial produc v .

Fy j y w .

T SR Silk Road Economic Beltframeworkisverysignifi C A. I lar,thepartieswouldbeabletofindacommon w S R E E U. Cy EEU C A. T y . I : x x Kazakhstan are experiencing somedifficulties R . A K R. W v Silk Road Economic Belt EEU y v triesintheregioninsuchareasasfinance,proj .

I v w Silk Road Economic Belt ishugelybeneficial forChina,Russiaand theC A



v y v y. T wv y j y.

A C A y w v w w . I q w v. A v C A w j w. T C A x w C R. T j y C y C A ; y w.

K j w S R y R C A. K' C U E E U vy SK . T x C A y v Silk Road Economic Belt.

F C v w . O V P EEU B K w Kyy Tj vy. T

Bj C A y w C. Cy j .

I 2014 Bj Silk Road Economic Belt v j C A wy A Dv B. T Silk Road Economic Belt y y.

I w have been significant changes in the relationsw C K j. A j w My 2014,whichisthefirstofitskindintheregion.

O Nv 11 2014 P Nyv K w w Nurly Zhol – Towards the Future Program y v v v.

O D 14 2014 P M L Kq F CK B C C w j w Nurly Zhol. T Silk Road Economic Belt Nurly Zhol ismutuallybeneficialforthepeoplesofC K.



T

Transport Corridors of Iran as Factor in Regional Economic Integration ERADZH ELAHI

xv w wy

x y. I . T S R w reflectsthespiritofcooperation,rationalityand x.

T y w w w y w . T wy w w vy.

I x v. T v w. N v v . My v j. T j j . I w y y E xv v vw cashflow.

Uy E y' w' w v y w

v v y . T xy A E. T w vy y; K. T factors precondition efficient and reliable corri y.

T y w E w y v x . I w w .

F v v w wy v y. U w w y y . S vy q v w w the traffic.Third, the lackoffinancial resources j j. F y E y A C y U.

I w vy . O y v E y w y y v regions.Inthiscontext,thenecessityfordiversifi y v .



I KTI Rwy vy timely. It will undoubtedly play a significant v . T w w C A w w M E j .

T I nificantcorridorprojectsintheregionisworth . T I w : w v.

I w A E w w . T N S y y w y I w y . I vy playsasignificantroleintheNorth-SouthandTRACECA j w .

Iranhas twodozensof roads andfive railwy w . A v v y .

T w I 80000 20000 w. I 2013 1.5 I 12 w y y wy . I 20 2015.

Hwv jv jv v E. A

UN D T E A y S R 40% .

I I ed touse its capabilities in thefieldof transit w y. I v . T w : v q C Sw I xy I O. T v A C A C; fieldoftransittransport,includingrailandroad; y I; v ; x w N EW .

T y another significant issue. Iran is considered ay y y . T I v y. A I v w y y w w .

Uy x v I y y S W. Y v I . I w w C A v .

T I w E.



I

Transport Corridors through Central Asia: How to Create Integrated Network amidst Geopolitical Tensions?ANDREI KAZANTSEV

w y v. Mv E

A S A J S K ChinaandIndiaandotherslifttheirsignificance w E W N S oftheEurasiancontinentintensifies.Inthisre C A w w . T v w .

East-West Route Alternative to Southern Sea Route as Collective Interest of Central EurasiaT w E A v v. T v w: y G S R C A TS Rwy R R N S R R . Tw y w y .

Uy y 17 y y I O. T S C y y v v. T G G Dv. T v. F x v w .

T C E someconsiderablevolumeofcargoflowwillbev S S R transportation,firstofall,viatheSilkRoad.The y w : ) ; ) y y w .

T y w . A C W traditionalandnon-traditionalthreatsintensified y. I x v w “ ”. Pxy y y v v w v y.



T v w v w S. T w w w y . T y – – j wy.

Intensificationofthegeopoliticaltensionbew j w v . I y A C I I S A. T w v USA y J S K A andChinainthePacificOceanandthenaviesofC P I I O. I P G I w A y S ArabiaandQatarintensifiedaswellasthatofI I I U S. Sy v w y x w I A . I M E "G SS W" conflictinSyria,Iraq,Lebanon,Yemenandoth. I M E y vy . F I P G w U S deteriorated.Finally,theArab-Israeliconflictis xy S C; 20

y v S C.

T S S R E A y . I x C A y v w w S R. I x

y vw v v C A v : j j w w . I w C A v y vy. T y vy .

Alternative Land Transportation Routes and Political Interests. Great Silk RoadT G S R w betweenAsianandEuropeformorethanfifteen. Hwv y the last five hundred years as theGreatGeo Dv v . T USSR vv S S R.

T j y j vv G S R.

The EU sponsored TRACECA and TACIS. S 1990 US EU v v S R wy wy C A C. T w y I R. T w TRACECA j y EU w TACIS. T j w y j A y A B J S K.

The Silk Road Economic Belt C. S y 1990 C vy vv S R w TACIS TRACECA. T as theChinese influence grew, its priority inC A j w v w v C A w w SCO y. C’ v S R E B



w w G S R vv v.

T S R w w C A j w v .

Russia’s Alternative Gv v R w : y v y v (TS Rwy) (N S R w) y TS Rwy S R system.Thefirst option is consistentwith the w v w C Sv . T tionisreflectingtheprincipleofthecollective I . T C A y w y w S S R. I w TS Rwy S R y v v v S S R v y v fiedprovidedtheEast-WestandtheNorth-South .

North-South RoutesT S R practically forgotten for the last five hundredy.

ThefirstNorth-SouthroutealongtheCaspianS R I C C A . T KTI Rwy R E E M E. I y w C M E v w. I

v K Hwy. I j S C I w v . JSC R Rwy vy j. Hwv .. AAj RG IAj . Mv j y concernstheWestasitstrengthenstheinfluence R I C.

T NS y NATO’ N D Nw. Lv y EU x w v y y NATO A. T Lv R R C A A P I.

T j v w R W v C S w K Hwy w C P. T j CASA1000 y TAPI .

I I w w y v . I C A w v v v v S S R w v y w v . Uy x w y .



Eurasia Transport Corridors: New Ways for Cooperation, Geopolitics or Economic OpportunitiesALI RESUL USUL

A C’ M X J C v Nw S Pj S 2013 K

PacificOceantotheBalticStates,allEurasian Ty Nw S R j w E w . T Nw S R w O B O R (OBOR) w A E C v j .

Py yy w y Ty. T y y v y w y y.

I E v TRACECA A Nw S R A . T j w NS

C A A P I . T j y qy y .

T C S R v y C C A I Iq Ty B Nw E. T j y Nw E L B. T Nw E L B y y Ly C toKazakhstanandIran,finallycrossingunder M S Ty. I v C E. T w TS Rwy y w C Gy. T y C I O.

Ty w v E underlinesthesignificanceoftheMiddle/Cen C N S . T M C C w BTK Rwy w w v



L C v K T w y C S. T j w My w 2013. T My A E B M S.

Ty w w w j w w v wy E w W. T E T I S w 2016 v I S w 2015. F T P M y j y I S w wy.

A j Ty’ vv G S R. I S R v w v E. Ty w x E . A v xv v v w y E andlessconflict.

T x .. . A j v x . T y y y . Hwv I v itwillbebeneficialtotheregionalcooperation,y y.

T E w v: A v Nw S R v w A; C w ; w R andtheWestaftertheUkraine/Crimeacrisis;and SR .

T v y j E w y w y vv intoproxyconflicts.TheEurasiannationsshouldbenefit fromall these initiativesas theywould y. T v v j E y.



Transport Corridors in Eurasia: Economy or Geopolitics KONSTANTIN SYROEZHKIN

T j “” y. I w y j ridoris,firstofall,amatterofgeo

. T vy y j. I v y j y .

T y v w j w w w . T E xy . T j : the Eurasian Integra-tion y R; the New Pan Turkism y Ty the New Silk Road y USA,andfinallythe Silk Road Economic Belt y C.

E j v w. E w E . E w w. M y wv j vy qy y y.

T w j v. I vy . D the Silk Road Economic Belt

C vy x y . T .

Thefirstinitiativeoft S R E B w y P X J S 2013. I O 21 Cy M S R. P L Kq P S C CP CBI–My . L j w y O B O R (OBOR). T C My F A .

T j x x x My 28 2015 the first document concerning theOneBelt–OneRoadprojectwasfinallypublished: N Dv R C (NDRC) My F A (MFA) My C (MC) j w The Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (2015). A anyconceptual takeon theOBOR, it clarifies x. A O B O R v j y v



bemutuallybeneficialandperspectivebecause v v *.

T x v y j. T x w wv w: O B O R j nanceandimprovementofmutuallybeneficial w y w y w . T y v j “ v ” “ thetopofficiallevel”.

S M 2015 B A Dv F A X J O B O R C vment,isintheircommoninterestsandfitsveryw v . T OBOR v v C’ v q . A X J O B O R x v . I y v w y y y **.

I w C’ P . S y

wv w v y ***. T j v O B – O R y y F My C j v. T F My C w y w andthissignifiesanapparentgeopoliticalcontent v. A y q.

F w OBOR y w . I v w C?

S j A C j v C’ v ?

T w “ v” y Bj w j ?

F w OBOR "wwy " y C v w " w"?

Finally, although thebenefits forChina arey w S R E B 21 Cy M S R w y .

S v OBOR “” SCO F T Z w w y C j y R C

*N Dv R C. 2015. The Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, [online]Availableat:<http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease>[Ac 19 M 2015].

**X J. 2015. Tw Nw F A; X J S B F A. P' Dy [online]March29,2015.Availableat:<en.people.cn>[Accessed29May,2015].

***F My C. 2014. President Xi Jinping Delivers Important Speech and Proposes to Build a Silk Road Economic Belt with Central Asian Countries, [online]Availableat:<http://www.fmprc.gov>[Accessed29May2025].



A w j v C’ v C A R M E E.

T y wy y x OBOR w x C v****.

T wv R A w C A C’ OBOR j.

C A . T w USA E R C I I Ty . T w . T j C

w v y vy . W C w q.

I x berthedifficultiesfacedbyRussiaandtheUSA . T Nw S R USA vy R’ j .

C R USA v; y . C y v . F x v A I Iv B (AIIB) Bj $100 . T v OBOR j y $40 . I v C y y y w w v . A vy .

****МаЛили,ЖэньБаопин.Eds.,2014.Сичжоу чжи лу цзинцзи дай фачжань баогао. (Доклад о развитии Экономического пояса на Шелковом пути). Пекин:Чжунгоцзинцзичубаньшэ.



Silk Road: New Cooperation Opportunities BAURZHAN URYNBASAROV

T E. Hy v w G S R

y K. I v E . Ty y w A E y . Pv w w y K?

K y E w y vv y w w. Kazakhstanfindsitselfbetweenthetwomajor w . T y’ y y y .

T E y . A x v w $800 2014 $1.2 2020. A w C EU w w $615 $800 billion.Thevolumeoffreighttrafficwillincrease 117 170 98% w w y .

K ; 10 w C E K’ y y 2020. T q wv

y. P Nyv K y w K Nurly Zhol – Towards the Future National Program Nv 2014. T y w v K.

T JSC N Cy K T Zy (JSC "NC" KTZ) vy Nurly Zhol y. Cy v $36.3 v 2020. A j w w v y v y qy y v K’ v w w w volumesofthefreightflow.

S v y . F x K C v wy w w v v 40 y.

Theexistingconfigurationofthecontinental vv. T v C R G S E U w. P



v K q w.

T JSC "NC" KTZ v v. I 2014 w w wy: 988 ZB 214 AyS UBBG 928 . T w wy w NS EW 1000 . T wy 10% 30% vy y. T y K y.

T C C TC I T R (TITR) w wy K Aj G Ty Fy 2014wasasignificantmoveforthedevelopment . T v y y v .

Ty w JSC "NC" KTZ y . T Cy’ v xvy wy v v. T w w y ww . A v x K. O y v v w w distributionoffreightflowsisthemostintensive.

T v v in thefiled.Kazakhstanhasbuilt the logistics

Ly v the freightflowsfromSoutheastAsia towards C A E G. D 2014 v x transitofcontainertrafficthroughtheterminalin Ly w 70000 TEU y 2015 x x 250000 TEU w w y 2020.

Ay j B S y L K P G y I B A. T w v j y w v K w W O.

T Ly A w KTZEK GWy y flowsthroughCentralAsia.TheDPWorld-aj – v v KTZEK GWy A.

T JSC N Cy K T Zy y TC . I 2013 y w y y C S. T K’ y w: y 2020 v x wy. T A C : v 25% C S. I 2014 v 10.3 . I 2015 JSC "NC" KTZ w finishtheexpansionworksintheAktauport: w y 1.5 w v w y 1.5 . T 21 v y. T y Ky y y K y .



Dy P KTZEK GWy j w K. I D 2014 P Nyv K v v A. T v 4.4 2020. T K j x additionaltransitfreightflows.

T (TLC) j K w w distributionoffreightflows.Thenetworkwill . T TLC A Sy y.

O y x . T JSC N Cy K T Zy vy w j wy v C Ly Cq X' S w w w C E C A y K. T w C E volumeoftrafficthroughKazakhstan.In2014,

226 21192 TEU. T y : inthefirstquarterof2015,52containertrains 4386 TEU. T 2.5 thaninthesameperiodof2014whenthefiguresw 1716 TEU 18 vy.

T CKAjGTy y. T j w TITR w w x fiedapproachto thecontainer trainsoperation v .

T y 2020 v K w w ( 18 36 ) v K v CE CC AS C;Ty C ARE. A v w $1 3.1 . A w K v . Ev w K v E. Pv K y w v y y.



New Infrastructure for Kazakhstan’s Regions AIGUL KOSHERBAYEVA

W v v y . S v

qy v w y.

T v w . T w vy qy qy w y v y v. G y w v w . T qy w v v y .

K’ v . T v v w y y y.

T j W EW C . T wy 8000 2000 w

y K. T wy v j w C E 10 40 y x . Ay W EW C w v .

T wy y. S 1200 w wy v . T ZyK j transittrafficfromChinatoEuropeanandAsian 500 . I 2013 wy w w K T that has the followingbenefits: 600kilometer wy P G.

T j y . I 2013 ZB AyS wy w w C E y 1200 . T w w j y 80% .

I vy wv j x y . A w K. Ov y v v ( 100 KZT)



wy 300 y. Hwv 80% ofallthecurrentairtrafficrequiresoperationof y w w K Ty T S Pvv UK U.

O Nv 11 2014 K National Program Nurly Zhol y v . S q w v infrastructure,attractthebulkofthecargoflow, qy . T “ v” . T y A Ay Sy A UK.

T j w y v y y v . A v v w qy . T w qy w E . T v v K y w 30 v w. T v v v.

T w x x y . T v w v wv w . T y y.

I Nurly Zhol Pro-gram j

Ay UK w A. T j v y CS CE CW.

The Center-East Road w Pv S K UK w A x. T v x ; w Pv w 356000 S w 339000 .

The Center-South Road A w K B Ky Ay w x v qy v. T v y j w K B Ky w v 492000 59000 78000 vy.

The Center-West Road w A w Ay Yy S B A. T w the cargo flows between theCentral and theW . Ay j w y . I w K . T j w v v Ay A (w y 50000 185000 vy) w w.

T y Ay y 1.5 . I K. Ay y j w w w Sy T. T y y Ay w y v Ay y.

T j w ZyK. I j



v C E A ; AE y 500 . T SEZ K GWy w ZyK wy W EW C w w v vy w v E A.

T y A w v 439000 E W v x UK S Pv A Ky K Pvv A O w C S Ay A. Ay w AA A Ay O .

C W EW C w y A w v w v w W K.

Hy Sy w y 712000 w w SW: Dy K ( C ) Ay T Sy Kyy A O S N: Pvv Y Ay Z Sy S E: Ay Ty UK S Pv.

T Sy w S w y . T vy v N CE x .

A Nurly Zhol Program . T v y 1% w GVA y 0.7% j y 0.14%.

I w $1 v 20000 j 11000 j industries.Giventhesignificanceandmerescale v K v vy .

T x j jv v w . I v y y w y . A w y y.

M v w w K K’ x x v . T y y A Dv B w v K y 35% w v w wy y 71% w v y . Mv ofintermodalrailandroadcontainertrafficwillbe y 24 %*.

A Nurly Zhol K Program of Rapid Industrial and Innovative Development (PRIID). T stageof thefive-yearPRIID started in 2015.T P y 2019. T P j y. A w PRIID Nurly Zhol vy y accesstofinanceforsmallandmedium-sized w .

I v K v w v v qy; v vy

*A Dv B. 2012. Technical Assistance Report: Preparation of Se tor Road Maps for Central and West Asia, Project Data Sheet (PDS): D. TA N. 7708. M.



; vy y .

T qy y K’ v y T qy v y w y w . T y y w : v v .

I K vy y w v w vingforhighefficiencyoftheentiretransportsec. T (TLC) w j K .

T w :

A w Pvv K Pv. T j vv "y " w w w R y K Pvv K;

UK w S;

A w U A. T j

A Ay A w Ky B;

SyAy w v y TLC w y . T w y Dy K GWy.

T v v K v . A v x w :

w y v qy K v w ;

w j y w ;

w v vy railways,more energy efficiencyof the long- w v;

v w v;

y ;

w .



T

Eurasian Infrastructural Corridors: Opportunities, Challenges and Practical Steps for Better CooperationTALANT SULTANOV

C A x y

. T vy y y y w y y I P I S w R N.

T xy . T v C A v y v .

T xv w C A v wy wy. T x w C A R E C (CAREC) w 80000 v w wy. T j v C A Nw S R S R E B.

Historical Background K C Kyy R Tj A 25 1999 B. T H S S R Dy P Kyy. T S R Dy w w : G S R; q G S Road;interdependence;mutualbenefit;long- v; v .

I v w S R E B j y P X J C 2013. O M 28 2015 Vision of the joint Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Marine Silk Road w taskstostimulatetheefficientdistributionofthe y w A E A. T v infrastructure,freetrade,financialintegration x q v triesforthegreatestmutualbenefitthroughthe v .



O w w C B. T v j C A CMR CC AW A .

Practical Measures International Legal Framework. T v y w. T x x w vy . A v .

Public-Private Partnership. S v v v w y y v y.

Security of Container Trains. T y y S R E B y C w j RKKyyTj Rwy y Kyy j y wy w w A K. T v v C A y y W C O (WCO). T Fw S S F G T (SAFE) y .

Passports and Other Travel Documents. T S R E B E E U w v q y y w . I y y I Cv Av O

(ICAO) . Sv C A v y . F x w usedinKyrgyzstanfrom2016.Theotherfield y j OSCE I ASFSLTD y v .

Multilateral Structures. T C A w wy UN w v x w ' x. T x v assistanceinsuchfieldsaslawmakingandlaw w y.

Logistics. Ev vy w v v. T efficiency.ThetransportationwithinandthroughC A xv.

T C A y . T v w. I y y . I .

Challenges and Risks Sww w w j C A. T betweenthedeficitofaggregatedemandformthe vy w ; ; vv y. A y w v y v.

I w y wy y: w



. Exv v w w x . T v C w w v v v.

T y vv . T y y x y w .

A C A j v . A W B L Qy Ix 2014 K 88

160 Tj 114 U 129 T Kyy 140 149 vy.

Projects in Kyrgyzstan C A Kyy w E C. T Kyy y v . A j Kyy. O themostsignificantistheprojectoftheRegionalT C (RTC). I v Kyy w C U Tj K A. I w w y C K wy w w .

R w v w : N B w K T B S B w K O I.

T R T C w v: w vy Xj U A R (XUAR) C w C; w ; w v C E w w E C C E M E.

Thereisafairlysteadyflowofcontainerized S K J C USA Kyy F Vy U Tj T A. T DyA KAy K w L TS Rwy R. T KTNyB KISyTO Hwy RTC. T w TRACECA CAREC .

Cy Kyy S K J USA UAE C y K B K U Tj O.

P X J C' vmentisbeneficialfortheentireworldand,above . T w y v C A . I y S R EconomicBeltandgainthebenefitsofthemutual vy w "v" "v" .



Main Aspects to Enhance Competitiveness of Land Transportation in Eurasia KANAT ALMAGAMBETOV

y K. T v vvw . I

v v w v challengesidentified,proposesthesolutionfor w y y K.

T y y K TRACECA. Ty TRACECA y Basic Multilateral Agreement on the International Transport Corridor (ITC) E CA (TRACECA MLA) S 1998 B y Aj A B G I K Kyy Mv R Tj Ty U U.

T TC Nv 2013 y C C TC I T R (TITR) CJSC Aj Rwy JSC G Rwy JSC "NC" K T Zy CJSC Aj C S Cy JSC "NC" A I S T P B I S T P B S P L.

O My 22 2012 25 F Iv C

P Nyv K Nw S R j w . Hwv C C Nw S R ; v Nw S R.

Cy j j S R E B vy y j w j.

Sea vs Land TransportationT v v y y x y y. Hy w . N y v vy y 14000 v P C rying280milliontonsofcargo.Thefiguresfor S C v v: w 18 000 v 2011 v $5.2 . M y v wy w :

-busycontainertraffic:thebackloadingis ;

-difficultieswithmaintenanceoftheregularity ;

w ;

v (y v);

T



- information exchange between the traffic.

T y wv advantages.These are, first of all, steadiness, vy y.

Enhancing Land TransportationK j considerablytheefficientlyofitsinfrastructure v v. T y j E.

T v vy . T w wy . Pv j wy y w C E. M y wy w vy y y jy

x w .

T wy K R B P. T j w w y v 1600 1800 y. T y trainswillbeevenmoreefficientwhentheyare w .

W j vy w w w K. T w y vy w (68 y). T j wy w v y w vy w w y x y.



TRACECA Corridor: Geostrategic and Economic PotentialMARAT SAUDOV

w Iv C (IGC) TRACECA v : andefficienttransportpolicyofthe

w y w v y TRACECA j .

P Nyv K w w Kazakhstan – 2050 Strategy the Nurly Zhol – Towards the Future National Program, y E W K w A M E E.

T K . Ty q :

v ; v

v v v v v .

G vy TRACECA w social and economicbenefits they can expect.Hwv wv . T x y

v . A y j A E x xvy v.

Thesefactorsinfluencethestoragecostsand w v v . T v v .

Mv xv y x w w . T .

A y y w y. T narrowestlocationswiththebusiesttraffic.Thevv y S A I O . T y y andinefficient.Therefore,theinvestmentintothissphereisnotsufficient.Thepolitical instabilityv y y A S .

Theother significant factor is the changing . T v v C w w vy ww y .

A C inmindthattheAsia-Pacificregionisoneofthe w. A x

T



x w j w E A w .

T j TRACECA. T wv TRACECA B C S. S v w C w y v. T x v C TRACECA 1.5 5 .

K vy w w w . P Nyv K Nw S R j w v v. K’ w: y E A y themoreefficienttrade.

T K w v A Dy K q B B S. K y q xv w y Ly C. Ay A v TRACECA .

A y wy ZyK UTurkmenistanandZhezkazgan-Beineusignifiy vy. T wy w TRACECA 1200 DyAy A . T w y 2535%.

K S W j 16 12 y Ay K v A B. T j x v w

. T j .

I 2013 x w v . T regulationofthetrainflowbetweenChinaandTy .

T plannedtofacilitatetheinternationaltraffic:to "” y.

T v C S y x demand for the rail-ferry andRo-Ro traffic.Hwv vy qy x v w sufficient regularity due to the poor condition . T y wy .

T x. Fy v considerablysimplifiedandmodernizedsothaty w y TRASECA . Mv . Ovy v TIREPD PAIES NCTS y.

T ; y x ; ; y; y .

T y y v y RR RPx v . T w v v C S y.

Unificationof the paperwork such asCIMSMGS w



v C S. I w y vy .

T v y w v y K v w . I v v K. A y . T vy .

I ciplesofopenness,equalityandmutualbenefit vv S R w y . T j y v v w S R j. T y K ingthegrowthofthetransittrafficareespeciallyimportant given the overall intensification of TRACECA .



Energy Strategy of Azerbaijan amidst Global InstabilityFARHAD MAMMADOV

y v y Aj . T Ayv’ National Oil Strategy y

tasks: thefirstwas to attract investments and w y Aj. T w vy NK y 20% w y B y Aj w G Ty R.

Oil and Gas Pipelines in AzerbaijanAj ww y : BTCy (BTC) BS BNvy.

The BTC C ACG T Cy MediterraneancoastsinceitsofficialopeningonJy 13 2006. T BTC 1773 y : Aj (449 ) G (235 ) Ty (1059 ). S v v BTC 1.2 50 . T 40 y w y 1 y .

TheoilproducedintheAzerioilfieldsisnotenoughtoensuretheprofitabilityofthepipeline.

F x 2014 5 v BTC . T xy K. K y x W v C P C (CPC) R Nvy w T y. O J 16 2006 P Nyv K' j BTC. U K A v y B v C S y BTC.

The Baku-Supsa w A 17 1999. T w w ACG j w. I 837 530 . T S x G S. T y BP. T BS ’ y 145000 y w x 600000 y.

The Baku-Novorossiysk C R Nvy B S. S 2008 R T Nvy U . I Jy 1997 R Aj Aj 2.52.7 y. T 1330 231 w y

T



Aj. I R D Cy. T y 2.55 y.

Gas Pipelines in Operation Cy v : S C GMAA MMG.

The South Caucasus BTE w M 25 2007. T 42 970 . I S C S D.

Pipelines Projects Aj y y x S Ey C j: x S C T A P (TAP) TA (TANAP).

T j x the South Caucasus gas pipeline startedofficially D 17 2013. T j’ y 2018 16 y 6 w w v Ty 10 w x S E. T $735 . T j 428 Aj G w 59 G. T w Jy 2015 y 2016 G y Aj.

Aj Ty w y A E D 2011. T w Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP) 2000 w Ty G B . T x $6.5 billion.Thepipelinecapacityonthefirststageofx x 16 y 6 w w v

T v w x E . T j 2023. T y 24 y. T w 2026 v upto31billioncubicmetersperyear.Thefirst 2018. 58% TANAP j SOCAR T BOTAS 30% BP 12%.

The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) C S E. T 520 w G A A S Iy. T y 10 y w x 20 . T j 45 E.

I vy j v vy y . A Aj j y v xvy vy. T j B v vy E y . E v wy y vy y w . D E Aj w .

T v U R v . T T S B S . I y y w v w v . I w Ty j y . T Aj Ty v ($ 20 2019). T T S w Aj Ty . T Ty y ; y Aj R I. Aj w R I .



Aj y w I . T I vy y . I y w w y . Aj I E x S Ey C y y vable to Iran.However, itmay takefiveor sixy. J S Ey C. T y j S Ey C C S.

Gv vy j w :

shale gas: y v. I

USA w y. T v U S y y. T "y y" "y ";

arctic oil and gas: vvy N y y v A y x w .

I vv vy y y . T v v v y v v v.



Role of the Caspian Region for Development of Energy CorridorsLIDIYA PARHOMCHIK

C R fluentintermsofthehydrocarbonre j y y x w

. Ay C S vy y E .

T y w :

E w EU ;

E A w C j ;

M E w .

I E w C y . A C Fv x v y ( ) w w EU.

A E A gaining its significance recently,whether thev y x C ( x ) w y j K G.

P I w P5+1 G

w x I C y v v w v significantly.

W C y y x w w .

T E xv w . T w w : PR ; PE ; TC .

I w PE PR . A y PR PE q . Hwv PR y v. I y w y S Ey C j.

A j y C R .

Significant changes in theCaspianEnergyCorridors configurationmayonlyoccur if the v thelargestoilandgasfieldsontheCaspianshelf.

T



Transport Strategy of China for EurasiaADIL KAUKENOV

USSR C v y y E . T y 2000 w

C w C A werefinallyinstitutionalizedandthegeopolitical v US y w y y E v NATO A.

WhenthefifthgenerationoftheChineselead w y C X J y Bj y w . T v S R E B signifiedtheshifttoamoresystemicapproachthat y . I C’ w:

y E C;

x C E ;

w I j C y vy y y ;

E; vy E

. I vy x

wy C w v E:

y ;

v v Xj Uy A R (XUAR) y v C. T v XUAR x ;

w v j w C ;

y y v increasingdestabilizationintheAsia-Pacific.

Gv v w mainreasonforintensifiedeconomicpoliciesofC. Bj vy y v. Y q x . H .

A C x v v J Pv. Iy y $4000 w y $10000. T $5000 v y v. T y C’ E v w . T v $1.52000. I xv . T q y .

T j y y

A



onlyoptionforthelandroutestoachieveprofity. T y y v C y My S w J Tw vy U S y M E. F x Y j y B M S.

T C’ vw y y y I. W I y y w v C. T y v Xj. T j w Nw S R. S w

The High-speed Railway Moscow-Beijing . T y w y. T K . F x v A Ay w 3.54 w y v Ay Mw. T C y BjUq wy. I C v v R Mw K w w duetothefinancialproblems.

T K wy Ay w A. T w v beenconsideredextremelycostlyandunprofit y JSC K T Zy passenger trafficbetween the twocities isnotv . T w wv v j w Ay Mw Bj y y A Uq j w .

The Transcontinental Corridor Western Europe–Western China vy K. Mv y U. T w v y

W K. M y w S .

T wy v Cq Sw C A Xj y K R B P G y D. T v 16 y w v y w C E Rwy (CER) 1000 .

The Railway Beijing–London Bj C K v wy Zy K ZB* w A. T C y K j y K' .

T x B T T y K. Hwv A 2008 j. I G y thenewroadthatisbeneficialfirstandforemost Aj y A. A G v j v y w vy .

Nx wy Ty y C’ v $30 . T wy w w Ty. T w v P M E C. T wy 2023. T v Ty w . T My wy v E wy w.

The Railroad China-Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan w C wy w U

* A BjL Rwy B v .



y A. T I M E. T j w TyE wy w .

X J T B y wy j v . D y w C . T w y. Iy w E 1435 C w C A Sv 1520 .

T j wv . L y P Ayv Kyy wy y ineconomictermsasitwasonlybeneficialforC U. P Ayv C. A j j w Kyy C Ex. Hwv Kyy’ x Kyy x $ 2 y C wy x Ky. T Kyy w vy v. T v w q y y .

T U Kyy CKyyU wy. I y x wy. T I SKyy . T w v T w C Kyy. T wy 268 . I w C y K w T F Vy U KS O Aj.

T KAj UDw Aj v 80% S K.

The Railroad China-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan Iran w y D v fromthedifficultrelationsandfrequenttransport y w U. I w j w v Kyy wy. T TA wy w C j y w.

O M 20 2013 A P Bv R K w T A Tj TA Rwy. Hwever,thedifficultmilitaryandpoliticalsituation A j A P q q.

T j Silk Road y C w q y C R. F x K w y Ly J Pv E C K J S K S A. T A j w v y.

The Transport and Logistics Hub Nw S R K. T j y JSC “NC” K T Zy W K w x A A w K C R E. I C v x w A I A K C Xj.

Fy R China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran C w P G K. T TI 2014.



C’ v y E y v x S C O. T SCO v . Ay SCO Nv 15 2013 T y v wy j.

T y C Sv w E . Dv newrouteswillchangesignificantlytheeconomic y. O w w y w A E w E y . O y w w j powersfortheinfluenceintheregion.


E C O N O M Y

Kazakhstan’s Logistical Network in Strategic Locations: Prospects and Possible Benefits YEVGENY HON

hediversificationofthetransporta v v w y y v

y v K y . W Nurly Zhol – To-wards the Future National Program, P Nyv K v y C I R CIS v y K y w E A.

T K v C y w y. A Russian’sTISLogistics,fiveoftenworldlargest w C (TIS L 2015). Mv C: y C j v J S L S G Zj v: 13.1% 9.6%

4.7% x 2.4% (UGL 2015).

I A 2014 K thefirst terminal in theeasternChineseportofLy. T Ly P v J E C v y w j C y Q Tyy D S y w K J B O vy.

Ay K C w w j . Gv v y E L (2015) w :

The Shenzhen Sea Port w TEU y 23 2013 – H K C' v G. T v w y w w v wwy.

Guangzhou Z J (P Rv) v H TEU y 16 2013. I j y y C. T C w 170 .

Fuzhou w 2 TEU y 2013 C w

T


E C O N O M Y

Tw S. I C Fj v (E L 2015).

T v j w y v wy w K J S K S A.

Ex K’ w I w . F x K y G O v I y C w S E Z (SEZ). Iv C SEZ v w “y” w y K thefreighttrafficbutalsotoavoidthepotential y y y S H.

T I 85% v B A. Hwv y v w 100000 w. S onthe250,000tondeadweightships, theyfirstv U A E (N 2014). T . Mv y ofaconflictbetweenIranandtheUnitedArabE . I w . T C wwy v . I v K v.

T I v vy C SEZ v. T II v x. T I v x v C ’ infrastructure as theyexpect significant reduce I x C A. Cy v I D.

T y y C SEZ. I NM. T I R x j C SEZ v S I w j C y.

Cy C SEZ v I C w I . T C j promoted by the benefits of its petrochemicaly w S H. T SEZ xy x I C C A . I w wy C SEZ vy w .

F K v j C SEZ x y . B 2012 w I (2014) y CSC CD CO. P j w K S A M E (I. 2014).

A w C I R vy v K’ w. T BlackSeahasstrategicimportancefordiversifica x K. I v AvB S B S.

A v B S x R (y Nvy T) G (B). I x K B y Nvy.


E C O N O M Y

Nvy C S P (NCSP) S R. I 2013 v 141 (NCSP 2013). A R S P A v theNCSPisthelargestinRussiaandthefifthlarg E. T T By v y .

B R Sw Hv (2015) NCSP v v v q . T NCSP 45 w (w v 8.5 ); 32 10 xy 3 qy. 22 y y v 8 y 2 w v . T xy v w w. T (SH 2015).

T Nvy vy v y E w w wy network.TheNCSPisthefinaldestinationfortheR NS I

T C TRACECA.T Nvy wy NCSP x w j y . Hv w K’ x y v.

T y y K y y v y x. Mv v networkofterminalsmayenhancetrafficthrough y K y j w E A. I w K w y v v. M y w thecapacitiesofKazakhstantobenefitfrombe y as ithasbeenarticulatedas thefirstpriorityof Nurly Zhol – Towards the Future National Program.

REFERENCES:

C. Sw Hv. B.V. 2015. Ports of the Black Sea (Морские порты Черного моря),[online]Availableat:<http://www.steinweg.ru/port-novorossiysk.php>[Accessed16May2015].

E L. 2015. Ports of China (Порты Китая) [] Av at:<http://eurasia-log.ru/info/ports-of-china>[Accessed10June2015].

I.. 2014. Iran and Central Asia: Is New breakthrough Possible? (Иран и Центральная Азия: возможен ли новый транспортный прорыв?), [] Availableat:<http://www.iran.ru/news/economics>[Accessed16May2015].

N.. 2014. Iranian Port Chabahar Opens Oil Terminal (В иранском порту Чабахар состоялось открытие нефтяного терминала), [] Avableat:<http://neftegaz.ru/news>[Accessed16May2015].

NCSP G. 2013. NCSP cargo Turnover in 2013 (Грузооборот Группы НМТП за 2013), [online]Availableat:http://www.nmtp.info/holding/press-centre/news/news_>[Accessed16May2015].

TISL. 2012. Largest Ports in the World in 2011 (Рейтинг крупнейших портов мира по результатам 2011 г.),[online]Availableat:<http://www.tis-logistic.ru/info/articles>[Accessed16May2015].

UGL C. 2015. Industry of China (Промышленность Китая), [online]Availableat:<http://uglc.ru/china-business/industry.htm>[Accessed16My 2015].


E C O N O M Y

Characterizing Integration within the Eurasian SpaceBULAT MUKHAMEDIYEV AZIMGHAN KHITAKHUNOV

w y w w y .

R y . E j w w vy y .

T USSR v . T y K' vv . T j developmentsinKazakhstan.Morespecifically, wy Sv C A w w w ful. Structurally, the paperfirst dealswith the

C A ; y tionwithintheEurAsEC;finally,itdiscussesthe .

Integration Initiatives in Central AsiaS Sv R C A y K Kyy Tj T U v v.

K y C A . T v y y w Kazakhstan - 2030 Strategy v. S K wy w livingstandards,financialsector,healthcareand. A HDI GDP GDP K' C A (T 1) Sv R.

C

Sources: Human Development Report and the World Bank World Development Indicators: http://hdr.undp.org

T 1. Scial and Ecnic Indicatr f Cntral ian Cntri in 2013

Human Development Index (HDI) Population, mln. Llfe Expectancy GDP, bln. in$ GDP per capita, in$

(PPP const. 2011 int.)Kyrgyzstan 125 5,7 67,5 7,226 3109Tajikistan 133 8,2 67,2 8,508 2431Turkmenistan 103 5,2 65,5 41,85 13554Uzbekistan 116 30,24 68,2 56,79 5002Kazakhstan 70 17,03 66,5 224,414 22466


E C O N O M Y

Iy C A K x w

CIS C A w (T 2).

T 2. Sar f t CIS, Cntral ia and Kazaktan in Wrld rad in %

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013125 5,7 67,5 7,226 3109

CIS 133 8,2 67,2 8,508 24312,21 2,37 2,65 2,99 3,25 3,40 3,98 3,32 3,56 3,94 4,01 3,86116 30,24 68,2 56,79 5002

CA 0,25 0,26 0,30 0,34 0,40 0,45 0,54 0,48 0,50 0,57 0,57 0,56Kazakhstan 0,14 0,16 0,20 0,24 0,28 0,30 0,38 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,40 0,38

Source: UNCTAD// http://unctad.org

A v y K q v y y

w CIS C A. T EAEC EES CAEC SPECA TRACECA INOGATE CAREC EEU (T 3).

T 3. Rginal Organizatin in Eraia

EurAsEC EES CAEC SPECA TRACECA INOGATE CAREC EEU 2010 2011 2012 2013Azerbaijan × × × ×China ×Kazakhstan × × × × × × × × 3,56 3,94 4,01 3,86Kyrgyzstan × × × × × × × Mongolia × 0,50 0,57 0,57 0,56Tajikistan × × × × × × 0,35 0,40 0,40 0,38Turkmenistan × × ×Uzbekistan × × × × ×Russia × × × ×Iran ×Pakistan ×Turkey ×Afghanistan × ×Armenia × × ×Belarus × × × ×Georgia × ×Moldova × ×Ukraine − × ×

Source: Regional Integration in Central Asia. 2009

O v x C A C A R E C (CAEC) w K Kyy U. T v y CAEC 1994 . A v w Tj A j CAEC 1998. Hwv y y v .

T . I 2002 CAEC

C A C O (CACO) w y A. Hwv w (L P 2012).

A R CACO O 2004 y . O O 6 2005


E C O N O M Y

C A C O w E E Cy. A Syj (2010) CACO EAEC . I 2007 P Nyv K C A U. Y Py (2012) w j y U T.

T v w w K v . T U N S P E C A . I w the Tashkent Declaration M 26 1998 y K Kyy Tj U w Exv Sy UN E C E S CmissionforAsiaandthePacific(ESCAP).LaterA T Aj j SPECA*.

I (L P 2012) y 2004 SPECA x w y w y y. A SPECA 28 j (L P 2012).

B SPECA w C A v w y becauseofthelackofself-financingmechanisms.

T w distancedthemselvesfromthefull-fledgedpartici. F x U T w SPECA C. Pxy SPECA v C A . Moreover,theSPECAfailedtofillthevacuumlefty v CACO. S x v CACO w v y SPECAinthefirstplace(Pomfret,2009).

T w v C A w y . T C A ordertogainsomeshort-termbenefits.

T C A y w . T x v statesconcernedtonegotiateinordertofindthe . T v v y T U. T v v C A y v . Fy E E U (EEU) w K Kyy C A . I "" y .

Integration within the EurAsEC T E E Cy (EAEC) w 2000 v P Nyv K. A Mv (2012) EAEC w vy v w E C U (ECU) E E S (EES) w v fields.ThetreatyestablishingtheEurAsECcame My 30 2001 (Mv 2012).

T jv EAEC w y tobuildthesinglefinancialenergyandtransport

*ForemoreabouttheSPECA,seehttp://www.unece.org.


E C O N O M Y

v w v y. T EAEC w w y (L P 2012).

T Treaty on Eurasian Economic Communitywassignedsignifiedthewillingness . I E E Cy y E C U E E S K B R w w v .

T q wv wy y ECU . T y y E E Cy . I O 2000 "U Fv " w E E Cy y A w My 2001. T y . T w w y.

A w EAEC w j WTO. T w Kyy y WTO. S x (P 2005) E E Cy . I 2003 K y . T w q y w EAEC (P 2005).

T ECU y B K R Agreement on the Common External Tariff Fy 2000. T v w 2005. I 2007

w EAEC w y y w . Hwv despitenumerousdifficultiesandobstacles,theEurAsECwasthefirst timewhenthemember w w y v w w vy EEU.

Integration of Regional Transport Infra-structure K C A y. T v y' (R 2003). T v v C A vy .

I 1997 C A E C (CAREC) w . A w TRACECA INOGATE CAREC w v . I 2010. T P j CAREC. T j ; v vy . I 2006 2008 j seriesofagreementsoncooperationinthefields y . By 2011 CAREC w $15046*.

The CAREC Transport and Trade Facilita-tion Strategy (TTFS) Action Plan w v v x w CAREC w w w. T Sy v x CAREC y w CAREC w E .

*FormoreabouttheCAEC,seehttp://www.adb.org/countries/subregional-programs/carec.


E C O N O M Y

T v y CAREC j C M E E A E R S A. I w y v .

T E C U B K R x 168 . W configuration,Kazakhstanhadbecome the ac R B . A ECU CAREC j K measures created difficulties for the countries w C U (CAREC 2012).

T E C U B K R w Jy 1 2010 y Jy 2011 vy w K R v 7.7 2011 2.9 2012. Cqy 2011 v w w y 66%. O y K w ECU 86 2011 215 2012 (CAREC 2012).

T CAREC w y v K. I v v K w v . T v K v K . T x y y j K.

ConclusionP Nyv K v C A

v . T C A w . T j w . T y C A w v . Mv v v w y . T alsosignifiedthatthemajorplayerswereneithery w w .

I w EAEC EEU(theideahadbeenarticulatedforthefirst y P Nyv w). T EAEC w . U EAEC w y. T EAEC y j EEU.

T w j K w vv . T CAREC C A v y K v w y EEU. T CAREC K thefull-fledgedeconomiccorridorsandstimulatedy.

T w j w w v membersinthelongerrun,provedtobebeneficial K v v . W v aimedatgainingpoliticalbenefitsratherthenat y C A .


E C O N O M Y

REFERENCES:

CAEC. 2012. Strategic Framawork for central Asian Economic Coop-eration Program for 2011 – 2020 (Стратегические рамки для Программы Центральноазиатского регионального экономического сотрудничества на 2011 – 2020 годы),[online]Availableat:http://www.carecprogram.org[accessed,20 Jy 2014].

CAEC. 2012. Changing and Monitoring of Corridors Effectiveness, 2012 Annual Report (Измерение и мониторинг эффективности коридоров. Годовой отчет. ЦАРЭС 2012),[online]Availableat:<ttp://cfcfa.net>[Accessed23May,2015].

L M. Py S. 2012. Regional organizations in Central Asia: Patterns of interactions, Dilemmas of Efficiency. Uvy C A IstituteofPublicPolicyandAdministration,WorkingPaper№10.

Mv D. 2012. International Integration structures and Ka-zakhstan: Cooperation amidst Regionalization (Мировые интеграционные объединения и Казахстан: сотрудничество в условиях регионализации). Ay: KISS.

P R. 2009. R I C A. Economic Change and Restructuring, 42(12) 4768.

P R. 2005. T C A EU R WTO : R w y. Economic Systems, 29(1) 3258.

R G. 2003. D v : v C A . Comparative Economic Studies, 45(4) 520536.

Syj K.L. 2010. Kazakhstan and China: from Border trade to Stra-tegic Partnership. (Казахстан – Китай: от приграничной торговли к стратегическому партнерству). Ay: KISS.


E C O N O M Y

Scenarios for Eurasian Integration LILIA MERGALYEVA

w vv w y w . T y y v y x y.

T y v . T y y v y v . T v y . I vy v.

I vyy wy evolution;thelikelihoodofmilitaryconflictsisy vy y v y w w v. T w v w. T y v w y .

T v y w. S v w ; y y j v y y w v .

Gv v v v . T y .

My y WTO ASEAN APEC EU BRIC x v amidstintensifiedglobalcompetition.Therefore, w w .

T y “w ” . T . T y y v A E A.

D y CIS v j EU. Y Sv q w Gy Iy J. Nw v E . T v R (Kvv 2014).

T E x. T v . R v y v y w .

T y evenmilitaryfields.Theotheroptionisregional

N


E C O N O M Y

y w .

Gv y w w K . K w ‘ v . T w K w . T y wy y y vv y intensifiedglobalcompetition.

F K’ y y w . T N’ v A S K’ v vy v x.

F x w w w y y y y. K w vyw v .

I K y v w v “ w v ww E”*. K y v. T E E U y “ww E” K. T w E U K. T v w x S My x [E]A .

T K v v v . T v K v . Cqy w w K y y y .

K vy y v v vy y x . Iy w v projects,thenationisself-sufficientinthemost . I v luctantintermsofborrowingfinancialandother v . T K’ y w .

I K x K’ x v x . T P Nyv K w thefirsttoarticulatetheideaofacustomunion 1994. Uy w y economicinterestoftheotherstates,firstofallR; vy w v y j w w v q USSR.

T wv 2000 A w EAEC w officially started.Since the endof 1991 there v j w Sv : CIS CU EAEC CES CSTO ECE GUAM. N vy.

* “T ww E” y y R T P G XVII y.


E C O N O M Y

F y E v y . T E E U extendsitsinfluenceonalmostallaspectsoflife K. Uy x v . T projectmayberegardedasthefirstattemptof vy vy E U.

Stages of Economic Integration T E U w x . Nv (1996)identifiesthefourstagestheEUhasunder: . E ofconditionsthatwerecodifiedinanumberofv . H y w E .

S the free trade area w qv v.

S w the customs union v fiedexternalcustomstariffonitsperimeter.The q y.

S the single market v . A v providesfortheunificationoftechnicalstandards, v q w w v.

S of establishment of the eco-nomic union, w . T x

y . T y . I E U E P C M E C E C (Nv 1996).

W y K R B* “ ” . Nv ficialnamesofthestructure,beittheCommonE S E E U . By 2015 v w w v q v. A w .

Mv w q w. F x v v w v w EU 60% w EEU 2014 11.7%. T y x w isinsufficient.

From the EEU and Beyond: Scenarios of Integration T y w y x y v y vv . F x statesforimportmaycausedifficultiesforthelocalmanufacturersduetotheintensifiedcom . T y v .

I beneficial for themost developed, richest andy . T . Fy v

* T y v EEU.


E C O N O M Y

therefore,beingthemostprofitable.Secondly,theexportofcapitaltendstobethemostprofit y.

T v vv j vy . Ty x veryhighprofits,yetcounton theireconomic v w y v . T w y J A S K y S Tw My.

A E E U j w w x . Gv v v . Gv xy Sv vy v.

O : y w y v w .. v v.

T y EEU x w j . T 2014 73.3% y x EEU . T q v w 45.5% imports.Thefigurefor thechemicalproductsw 16.4% w w w 13.5% vy.

L v E E U . T w U member stateswillhaveanyconflict relation w w y v .

I v y w E .

The first scenario is about state non-inter-ference. T v U jy y v v v v x y. T y v y v v y . T v ( ) . T w. T w y . T v w .

The second scenario is about specialization w U. T y q v . T y y y w v w w U.

E v y x w U y. F x B j y w K Kyy’ j y x w y R. T U y v .

T v y x x qy. T w


E C O N O M Y

qy x q y y .

T x E v q y EU x. T q v v . F x q w EU 2013 w w : Gy 31.3 24.4 liontoneswereproducedinFrance,thefigure U K w 13.9 P w 12.7 w N 12.4 Iy 11.3 vy. Mv w x.

T holding companies . T E x E C S Cy. T F Gy Iy B N Lx. By 1975 ECSC 90% 100% 50% W Europe.TheECSCmaybeconsideredthefirst y w vy .

T v EEU y . Pv y y x w U y .

S 2012 y K R w the Memorandum on Cooperation w w K A M M E ( 65 )

R A M M Cx ( 10 ). F V P B S Rv j B MAZ R KAZ (REGNUM 2015). T K A S P w R K B.

T x . T wy w y*. L j v vv ; y specific projects in the energy, transportation, y v.

E v w. T first scenario of state non-interference . I y w y y . T v y Sv . T w y B. T w R. A K w . T q v j. Thefirstscenario,ifimplemented,risktodisturb .

The second scenario of holdings y v y v. T y v j . Ow w .

Forexample, thefirstattemptstouniteEu y O E E C C E E D Cy w v w w y j y P.

* Oy 2015 q x $95.3 .


E C O N O M Y

T v wv v . T w y v y . T y y qv . I w y . I 1951 E C S Cnity,wasthefirstexampleofawellfunctioning w xv y y C M Ay C. By 1955 250 w 60 y.

T y v y w . I x y B K Kyy R. I y w . Mv thepossiblebenefitsoftheEurasianintegration.

T Rv R KAMAZ (JSC) B MAZ(state-owned)hasbeendiscussedforfivey. T y B R. T wy v v M. B R w v B (REGNUM 2015).

Hwv j R Bsianindustrialsectors:thefirstoneconcernstheJSC I JSC R E w w R; JSC M W T P R; x JSC P R F S Ay.

T JSC G A w JSC M C C

y EC w G Iv.I

KAMAZ MB M 2015 j v Ny Cy. T MB T V (MBTV) F K T R (FKTR) w v y E C (ExO 2015).

T y . W y v.

The scenario of country’s specialization rather difficult to implement.This variant of v w y w v . W EEU w q EU q.

T v w v . T v w x v EU F S Iy Gy.

S EU ficultiesaswell:thesugarandmilkproductionq B S w v v v. T B S x y w. T w EU y.

T q y B w U. S 2015 v ’ EU: j A 1 2015 q w (DyNw 2015). T q v EU y. T EU q. I w x w q y y x*


E C O N O M Y

thefreemarketwithfiercecompetitionfrightens . A w C K EU y w ; q x. B q q v w R C.

T w y E w. T US C Jones-Costigan Act w Rv’ Nw D q market.Italsofixedthepricessothattheywould . T A q y .

T x w w . The European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU 2003) Kyoto Protocol y q w EU y plants,oil refineries, ironandsteelproduction w . T y 45% CO2 . S ( 20 MW ) q . T EU q y y (EU 2003).

T EEU y . T w w R U CIS y v . T y K w . T q w vy x (Av 2011). T v K q R . Sofar,itisapparentthatBelarusbenefitsmost EEU . F x R x

B R . T y v w y w B x j EU w v .

Mw K x y . K y EEU vy . A vv w y . T w y w v: w w w . T K y w .

A y v y v . Mv callyself-sufficientinsuchvitalstrategicsectors w y. T y. A v v x. Evy w v y v vy x y.

T K w E E U. T qy . Gv v w EEU highlyqualifiedprofessionalsmaydecidetoleave B R. A j WTO problemofhand/braindrainmayevenaggravate.K v . T y w v y.

* I 2014 I y v 75 E x q w v I x 85% y .


E C O N O M Y

ConclusionT E E U v vficationandmodernizationoftheireconomiesandv y mostprofitable.SuchspheresasR&Dandinnov y . T EEU

w fifthandsixthtechnologicalrevolutions.Allthesew v EEU . Ay v y . Kstanshallfinditsplacewithineachofthemsothatitw v .

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Арбузова,С.,2011.Статус-КВОтнасахар.Курсив, [] 24.11.2011. Availableat:<http://www.kursiv.kz/news>[Accessed25May2015].

Караваев,А., 2014.Сказались лироссийские санкциина экономикахстранСНГ?Курсив,[online]25.09.2014.Availableat:<http://www.kursiv.kz/news>[Accessed24May2015].

Носкова, И.Я. 1996.Международные экономические организации. Справочник.Moscow.

ExpertOnline,2015.КамАЗобъединяетсясMercedes-BenzиMitsubishi.Expert Online, [online] 24.02.2015.Available at: http://expert.ru/2015/02/24/kamaz-ob_edinyaetsya-s-mercedes-benz-i-mitsubishi/>[Accessed15May2015].

ParliamentandCouncilDirective2003/87/ECof13September2003onCo2E T.

REGNUM, 2015a. Лукашенко поставил крест на «пилотныхинтеграционныхпроектах»сРоссией.REGNUM, [] 17.03.2015. Avableat:<http://www.regnum.ru/news>[Accessed25May2015].

REGNUM,2015b.Дворкович:ОбъединениеМАЗаиКамАЗазастопорилось.REGNUM,[online]4.04.2015.Availabelat:<http://www.regnum.ru/news>[Ac 25 My 2015].

TheDairyNews, 2015.Отменамолочных квот вЕС.The DairyNews, [online]03.04.2015.Availableat:<http://www.dairynews.ru/news/faq-otmena-molochnykh-kvot-v-es.html>[Accessed17May2015].


AuthorsCENTRAL ASIA’S AFFAIRSQUARTERLY ANALYTICAL REVIEW N.2 2015

dil Kakn, DH G R R D Ly F P K

igl Kraa, D C R S R E R I

li Rl Ul, D C S S (I)

ndr Kazant, DH MGIMO Ay C

zizan Hitan, P.D F K N Uvy

Barzan Urnaar, V JSC "NC" K T Zy "

Blat kadi, P F K N Uvy

Elai Eradz, D C A C R I P I S (T)

Farad aad, D C S S P Aj

Kanat lagat, D KAZLOGISTICS

i Sn, Dy D I E E R C A (Bj)

ilia rgalia, P W K P Uvy

dia Parkcik, Ex E R I

Kntantin Srzkin, C R Fw KISS

arat Sad, N Sy TRACECA Iv C K.

Ygni Kn, H D E S KISS


Сведения об авторахCENTRAL ASIA’S AFFAIRSЕЖЕКВАРТАЛЬНОЕАНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕОБОЗРЕНИЕ№2,2015

Али Ресул Усул – ДиректорЦентрастратегическихисследований

Альмагамбетов Канат – ГенеральныйдиректорСоюзатранспортниковКазахстана«KAZLOGISTICS»

Казанцев Андрей - ДиректорАналитическогоцентраМГИМО

Каукенов Адиль -ЗаведующийотделомСлужбыгеополитикиирегиональныхисследованийБиблиотекиПервогоПрезидентаРеспубликиКазахстан

Кошербаева Айгуль - ДиректорцентрарегиональныхисоциологическихисследованийАО"Институтэкономическихисследований"

Маммадов Фархад – ДиректорЦентрастратегическихисследованийприПрезидентеАзербайджана

Мергалиева Лилия – ПрофессорЗападно-Казахстанскогогосударственногоуниверситета

Мухамедиев Булат – Профессор,КазНУимениаль-Фараби.

Пархомчик Лидия – ЭкспертЕвразийскогонаучно-исследовательскогоинститута

Садуов Марат – НациональныйсекретарьПостоянногосекретариатаМежправительственнойКомиссииТРАСЕКАвРеспубликеКазахстан.

Сыроежкин Константин – ГлавныйнаучныйсотрудникКИСИ

Сунь Ли – ЗаместительдиректораИнститутаВосточнойЕвропы,РоссиииЦентральнойАзии(Пекин)

Урынбасаров Бауыржан – Вице-президентАО«НК«ҚазақстанТемірЖолы»

Эрадж Элахи - ДиректорисследованийЦентральнойАзиииКавказаИнститутаполитическихимеждународныхисследований(Тегеран)

Хитахунов Азимжан –ДокторантPhD.,КазНУимениаль-Фараби

Хон Евгений – Заведующийотделомэкономическихисследований,КИСИ


About the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies Under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Re-public of Kazakhstan (KazISS) was established on June16, 1993 by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Since its foundation the mission of the KazISS as the national research institution is to provide analytical support to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and public administration agencies of Kazakhstan.

The KazISS enjoys a reputation of the leading think tank of Kazakhstan as it employs a highly professional pool of experts; at present it includes six doctors and ten candidates of sciences and PHDs who specialize in political science, history, economics and sociology.

During the twenty-two years of functioning the KazISS have published more than 250 books on international relations, global and regional security. The Institute publishes three journals: the Kogam zhane Dayir in Kazakh, the Kazakhstan-Spectrum in Russian and the Central Asia’s Affairs in English. The KazISS has a trilingual website; in Kazakh, Russian, English.

The KazISS holds a great number of international conferences, seminars and round tables, including the Annual Conferences (regularly held since 2003) participated by the experts from Kazakhstan, Central Asia as well as Russia, China, Germany, France, India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Japan, the USA and other countries.

The KazISS is the basis for the professional practice work for the students of the leading Kazakhstan universities and for the fellowships for both Kazakhstan’s and foreign researchers.

Contact us for any further information:

4, Beybitshilik St. Astana, 010000Republic of KazakhstanTel: +7 (717) 75-20-20Fax.: +7 (717) 75-20-21E-mail: offi [email protected]

Kazaktan Intitt fr Stratgic Stdi ndr Pridnt f Rlic f Kazaktan


Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований (КИСИ) при Президенте Республики Казахстан был создан Указом Президента Республики Казахстан 16 июня 1993 г.

С момента своего возникновения основной задачей Казахстанского института стратегических исследований при Президенте Республики Казахстан как государственного научно-исследовательского учреждения является научно-аналитическое обеспечение деятельности Президента Казахстана, руководящих органов страны.

За это время КИСИ превратился в высокопрофессиональный научно-аналитический центр. В настоящее время в институте работают шесть докторов наук, десять кандидатов наук, PhD, специалисты в области политологии, истории, экономики, социологии.

За 22 года деятельности в институте было издано более 250 книг по международным отношениям, проблемам глобальной и региональной безопасности. В КИСИ издаются три журнала: «Қоғам жəне Дəуір» (на казахском языке), «Казахстан-Спектр» (на русском языке), «Central Asia’s Affairs» (на английском языке). Институт располагает собственным сайтом на трех языках: казахском, русском и английском.

В КИСИ ежегодно проводится большое количество международных научных конференций, семинаров, круглых столов.

Особый интерес у экспертов вызывают ежегодные конференции КИСИ, проводимые с 2003 г. и посвященные проблемам безопасности и сотрудничества в Центральной Азии.

В научных форумах КИСИ принимают участие не только эксперты из Казахстана и стран Центральной Азии, но и ученые из Германии, Индии, Ирана, Китая, Пакистана, России, США, Турции, Франции, Японии и др.

На базе КИСИ постоянно проходят стажировку и преддипломную практику студенты ведущих казахстанских высших учебных заведений, а также зарубежные эксперты.

В настоящее время в институте созданы необходимые условия для профессионального и научного роста сотрудников. Более подробную информацию о КИСИ можно получить по адресу:

Республика Казахстан, 010000, Астана,ул. Бейбитшилик, 4Тел.: +7 (7172) 75-20-20Факс: +7 (7172) 75-20-21E-mail: [email protected] www.kisi.kz

Казахстанский институт стратегических исследований (КИСИ)при Президенте Республики Казахстан